The Potential Quarterback Carousel

Michael Ginnitti
Michael Ginnitti, Managing Editor & NFL/MLB ExpertDecember 02, 2020
© USA TODAY Sports

The 2021 offseason could provide us with a bit of a carousel when it comes to the quarterback position. With a league salary cap sure to drop, more teams than usual will need to adjust their finances accordingly in order to stay afloat. We'll take an early look at which quarterbacks are heading into a situation where some level of question surrounding their immediate future exists, be it contractual, roster management, or the direction of a team in general.

 

Notable Pending Free Agents

 

Dak Prescott, DAL, 28
Prescott's injury puts his financial future is some question (but not much). It's widely expected that the Cowboys will slap a 2nd franchise tag ($37.7M) on him as a placeholder to getting a long-term deal done next offseason.

Philip Rivers, IND, 39
It's gone about as planned for Rivers in Indy, and it's hard to see either wanting to continue on past 2020. Indy should become a prime destination for one of the veterans listed below.

Cam Newton, NE, 32
It's been an up and down campaign for both Cam and the Patriots, but it does seems as though his window as a surefire srtarting QB in the NFL is closing. A big finish to 2020 can certainly change that narrative.

Ryan Fitzpatrick, MIA, 38
Fitz-Magic has been entertaining us on various teams for nearly two decades now, and he's been as savvy and fun as ever in 2020. There's a realistic chance Miami brings him back for 2021.

Jameis Winston, NO, 27
It's somewhat telling that Sean Payton pulled the plug on Winston in favor of Taysom Hill in 2020, but there's certainly still a reserve role with a chance to start in his future (somewhere).

Andy Dalton, DAL, 33
Dalton has struggled to take a hold of the Cowboys offense after being thrown into the fire post Dak's injury, but there should still be a backup role in his future come 2021.

Mitchell Trubisky, CHI, 27
Trubisky's time in Chicago is sure to be done, but he'll likely latch on somewhere to compete for a backup role (ala Ryan Tannehill to Tennesee).

Also: Jacoby Brissett, Tyrod Taylor, Colt McCoy, Robert Griffin III, Mike Glennon

 

Potential Contract/Roster Bubbles

 

Matt Ryan, ATL, 34

2021 Cap: $40,912,500
2021 Dead Cap: $49,937,500
Potential Savings: $1,050,000
$5.5M of 2021 salary is fully guaranteed

Ryan and the Falcons' offense have found new life in the Post-Dan Quinn era, but a new front office still could look to shake things up in 2021. It won't be fiscally easy.

While a release is out of the question, a post June 1st trade is somewhat tenable. The move would leave behind dead cap hits of $17.9M in 2021, & $26.5M in 2022, representing cap savings of $23M & $15.1M respectively. The receiving team would acquire Ryan at 3 years, $74.75M, including $23M in 2021, but just $5.5M fully guaranteed.

 

Teddy Bridgewater, CAR, 28

2021 Cap: $23,000,000
2021 Dead Cap: $20,000,000
Potential Savings: $18,000,00
$10M of 2021 salary is fully guaranteed

Bridgewater is the 19th highest average paid QB in football, and ranking statistically about the same. He's kept the Panthers in more games than not in 2020, but if Carolina gets an opportunity to draft his heir apparent, they'll likely do so.

$10M of his $17M salary for 2021 is already fully guaranteed, so it would be a $20M hit to release him outright. But it's conceivable that he's a good trade fit for a few teams looking to shake things up.

 

Nick Foles, CHI, 31

2021 Cap: $6,666,666
2021 Dead Cap: $14,333,334
Potential Savings: $-7,666,666
2021 salary, 2022 roster bonus, & $1M of 2022 salary fully guaranteed

With $9M of salary already guaranteed in 2021/2022, and team-friendly cap hits in each year, it seems unnecessary for the Bears to move on from Foles. However, if the organization goes through a full-service shakeup, everything will be on the table.

 

Matthew Stafford, DET, 32

2021 Cap: $34,950,000
2021 Dead Cap: $24,850,000
Potential Savings: $10,100,000
$10M roster bonus due the 5th league day of 2021

The Lions are going backwards in the standings, & Stafford's contract offers a few ways out after 2020. The $10M roster bonus due in early March will become a line in the sand for his future.

Detroit can either trade OR outright release Stafford prior to the bonus payment & take on the full $24.85M of dead cap next year, saving $10.1M of salary cap for the 2021 season. If traded, the acquiring team would take on 2 years, $43M, but all of it can be restructured as needed. It's tough to assess if a trade market would exist here, as teams could just wait for Detroit to release the 32 year old.

 

Aaron Rodgers, GB, 37

2021 Cap: $36,352,000
2021 Dead Cap: $31,556,000
Potential Savings: $4,796,000
$6.8M roster bonus due the 3rd league day of 2021

He's the #1 rated QB in football according to PFF, and has the Packers on pace for another 12-win season. It's ridiculous to have him on a bubble list, especially with so little to be saved in terms of cap space for the Packers.

However: Jordan Love was drafted #26 overall last season. Rodgers has $73M cash left on this contract, & will be 37 years old next season. With that said, the only way the Packers move on from A-Rod is if the future hall of famer demands out. Here's the best case scenario should that become the case...

Rodgers' agrees to push back the pay date of the $6.8M roster bonus to June Something, allowing that to not factor into the current dead cap situation, at which point Green Bay can trade him after June 1st, take on dead cap hits of $14.3M in 2021, & $17.2M in 2022 - clearing themselves $22M of cap space next season. The receiving team gets Rodgers at the 3 years, $73M - but will likely need to restructure in order to guarantee most (possibly all), as none of it will be at the time of this move.

 

Derek Carr, LV, 29

2021 Cap: $22,125,000
2021 Dead Cap: $2,500,000
Potential Savings: $19,625,000

At the time of this piece, Carr is the #13 rated QB according to PFF, and he's garnered a few pretty solid wins in 2020 as well. But the inconsistency still remains, and with his contract now rightside up in terms of dead cap, the possibility that the Raiders look elsewhere certainly exists.

None of Carr's $19.625M salary will guarantee until the start of the season. It's perfectly plausible that Las Vegas addresses the position in the draft, and keeps Carr in the fold for one more season - a model we've seen a few franchises follow in recent years.

 

Kirk Cousins, MIN, 32

2021 Cap: $31,000,000
2021 Dead Cap: $41,000,000
Potential Savings: $-10,000,000
$35M 2022 salary fully guarantees on the 3rd league day of 2021

Let's get this out of the way early: Cousins isn't going anywhere unless he's traded, and based on the numbers that seems highly unlikely. But with Minnesota in danger of missing the playoffs, it's fair to put him in conversation for being on the bubble for 2021.

The 2 year extension signed this past March wasn't fully guaranteed at signing, but it becomes as such next March, making an outright release nearly impossible for the Vikings. By the 4th league day, Cousins will hold $76M of dead cap on his contract.

 

Drew Brees, NO, 41

2021 Cap: $36,150,000
2021 Dead Cap: $22,650,000
Potential Savings: $25,000,000

Is the Tayson Hill era here to stay? Brees' sizeable rib injury (age & remaining ability) puts his future in doubt. While it's likely he returns to the lineup if healthy, the outlook for 2021 is very much unknown, and the extremely cap-heavy Saints would benefit from the $25M to be cleared per his departure.

His current deal contains two years of dummy years used only to help spread the bonus out for cap purposes. If he stays on the books through June 1st before retiring, the Saints can release him with dead cap hits of $11.15M in 2021, & $11.5M in 2022, clearing $25M for next season.

 

Carson Wentz, PHI, 27

2021 Cap: $34,673,536
2021 Dead Cap: $59,220,614
Potential Savings: $15,400,000
$10M roster bonus due the 3rd league day of 2021

Carson Wentz's future in Philly seems to be tumbling down the backside of a cliff at this point, a tough pill to swallow after having paid him $56M+ in 2020. None of the get-out options are pretty for Philly, but if they can find a trade parter (Indy), they should jump on the opportunity.

The elephant in the room this offseason will be the $10M roster bonus due in early March. If the Eagles can negotiate pushing back the payment date to June, that would certainly help their cause (but hurt their trade value).

Assuming they won't be able to get that done, best move (believe it or not) will be to make the bonus payment, then process a Post June 1st trade that includes $19.2M of dead cap for 2021, & another $24.5M in 2022, clearing $15.4M & $6.7M of cap space over the next two seasons respectively. It should be noted that with the 2021 salary & roster bonus already fully guaranteed, & $15M of his 2022 salary guaranteeing on the 3rd league day of 2021 - an outright release is not feasible.

 

Ben Roethlisberger, PIT, 38

2021 Cap: $41,250,000
2021 Dead Cap: $22,250,000
Potential Savings: $19,000,000
$15M roster bonus due the 3rd league day.

While the advanced metrics aren't grading out well, Big Ben's bounced back enough in 2020 to push the Steelers to the top of the league where it matters most. His pre-roster bonus release, trade, or retirement would clear $19M of cap & cash for Pittsburgh in 2021.

If Ben wants to continue playing, the $41M+ cap figure likely means a restructured/extension is in his future. $22.25M of dead cap rolls into the new deal, meaning

 

Jimmy Garoppolo, SF, 29

2021 Cap: $26,400,000
2021 Dead Cap: $2,800,000
Potential Savings: $23,600,000

With a completion percentage down, an interception rate up, and a season-ending ankle injury to boot in 2020, the writing is likely on the wall for a departure this offseason. Unfortunately for Garoppolo, the contract makes it pretty easy to comply.

The 49ers will take on just a $2.8M dead cap hit to release or trade Jimmy next year, saving over $23M of cap space to do so.

 

Dwayne Haskins, WAS, 23

2021 Cap: $3,931,803
2021 Dead Cap: $8,518,907
Potential Savings: $1,805,601

The Haskins' era in Washington barely got off the ground, and it looks more and more likely that he'll be shipped out one way or another this offseason.

The only way for WFT to do this AND clear cap space is to trade Haskins after June 1st, a move that will same them $4.26M cash, & $1.8M of 2021 cap. This seems a likely end game.

 

Alex Smith, WAS, 36

2021 Cap: $24,400,000
2021 Dead Cap: $10,800,000
Potential Savings: $19,000,000

Now that he's taking the reins back over, the future of ALL QBs in Washington remain in question. If Smith can hold the ship steady through the remainder of 2020, it's gong to be hard to imagine the WFT moving on.

While there's been talk about him "restructuring", the remaining 2 years, $40M kind of feels correct, assuming the organization is likely going to dip back into the draft to find another QB over the next two seasons. If however the team decides to bring in another arm (Stafford, Bridgewater, etc...) a post June 1st release of Smith would clear $19M of cap for 2021.


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