10 Bold NFL Offseason Predictions

Michael Ginnitti
Michael Ginnitti, Managing Editor & NFL/MLB ExpertFebruary 10, 2022
© USA TODAY Sports

With the NFL offseason all but here, a fun look at 10 (sure to be wrong) bold trade, release, & extension predictions for a few notable players heading toward the 2022 league year.

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The Broncos acquire QB Aaron Rodgers & WR Davante Adams from the Green Bay Packers for 2 first round picks, 2 second round picks, WR Jerry Jeudy, & QB Drew Lock

Before you scream “that’s way too much!”, remember that the Jaguars received 2 first round picks and a 4th round pick for Jalen Ramsey, and the Lions received 2 first round picks, a 3rd round pick, & Jared Goff for Matthew Stafford. It’s going to take a haul to get both of those players out of Green Bay simultaneously, but if Denver truly is all in (as their recent moves suggest), then this is the icing on that cake.

The problem? Acquiring Aaron Rodgers on his current contract, & Davante Adams on his pending franchise tag means taking on $47.6M of cap at the time of this trade. The Broncos currently possess an estimated $39M of room, so getting to this number is feasible, as long as extensions are penciled in to reduce their 2022 cap hits to much more team-friendly figures immediately following.

Jerry Jeudy holds 2 yrs, $3.5M plus a 5th year option on his rookie contract, while Drew Lock will be entering a contract year, bringing over a non-guaranteed $1.45M salary.

Also Maybe: Both stay in GB for Brinks trucks.

 

The New England Patriots acquire WR Amari Cooper & a 2nd round pick from the Dallas Cowboys for CB J.C. Jackson

There’s a world where the Patriots lose more pieces than they gain this offseason, as quite a few question marks currently hang over the offensive line and the defensive secondary. But there’s a sense that Mac Jones simply needs one more legitimate weapon to really open up the Pats’ spread passing game, and Amari Cooper’s contract & production level appear enough of a problem for Dallas to consider this move. Jackson is a pending UFA, and while New England likely wants no part of a $17.5M franchise tag, if they sniff a tag and trade scenario like this, it will certainly be worth their early March cap troubles.

Cooper’s contract contains 3 years, $60M left, but just a $20M salary in 2022 contains upfront guarantees (fully vests March 20, 2022). New England can acquire and restructure this contract as needed for cap purposes.

Also Maybe: The Patriots get Jackson back on a team friendly $12M per year deal, cuz, Patriots.

 

The San Francisco 49ers trade QB Jimmy Garoppolo to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers for a 2nd round pick & a 3rd round pick.

Jimmy Garoppolo’s exit from SF seems inevitable, and as 2022 rosters begin to shake out, there’s a world where 4+ teams could be vying for his services soon (TB, PIT, CAR, WSH to name a few).

He carries a 1 year, $25.5M contract with him currently, but a restructured extension seems likely, if for nothing more than cap relief in the upcoming season. Ryan Tannehill’s recent contract (4 yrs, $118M) in Tennessee seems the right model for a Garoppolo extension once the two sides feel comfortable in doing so.

Also Maybe: Steelers acquire Garoppolo, but no extension (yet).

 

The New Orleans Saints move on from 2x All-Pro WR Michael Thomas, designating him a Post June 1st release.

Michael Thomas still might hold trade value, but with $15.35M set to become fully guaranteed on March 18th, New Orleans will want to make a quick decision on their former WR1. A pre-June 1st trade will mean $22.7M of dead cap in 2022, still $2M of savings, but maybe not the most ideal business move (barring a great trade return of course).

Assuming the release designation, the Saints will lower his base salary to $1.035M, remove his March 20th roster bonus, & his workout bonus, lowering his cap hit to $9.9M. They’ll carry this figure until June 2nd, at which point the release will become official, leaving behind dead cap hits of $8.9M for 2022, & another $13.8M in 2023. Thomas will be eligible to sign with a new team as soon as the Saints designate him to be released (March 16-17th).

Also Maybe: Bears offer a late-mid round pick to take a flier on Thomas.

 

The Las Vegas Raiders extend QB Derek Carr to a 4 year, $150M contract, including $90M guaranteed at signing

Derek Carr’s never going to be considered for the Top Tier of QBs in this league, but he’s done enough to warrant another contract, and a chance to turn his production into playoff wins with the new Raiders’ regime. Josh McDaniels has done wonders with players of Derek Carr’s capacity in the past, so there’s reason to believe this situation can work out nicely, barring a few major additions to the rest of the roster.

Assuming the $90M guaranteed is spread across the next three seasons, this should be a relatively low risk extension for the Raiders going forward.

Also Maybe: Josh McDaniels needs a minute to see this through.

 

The Buffalo Bills acquire RB Christian McCaffrey from the Carolina Panthers for Cole Beasley, a 3rd round pick, & a 5th round pick

The Panthers insist he’s not actually on the trade block, but it seems reasonable that the right price could peak their interest. In terms of the Bills, there are a few matches here. First, Christian McCaffrey stands to switch more into a “slot receiver” role wherever he plays in 2022, so replacing Cole Beasley with him in this move holds logic. While Devin Singletary showed he’s got RB1 production in him, his ability to catch the ball out of the backfield still remains suspect at best. Finally, the Bills just hired Joe Brady as their new QBs coach, drawing an immediate tie to McCaffrey per his time as the Panthers’ OC.

Also Maybe: McCaffrey to the Dolphins, Bills acquire a WR2 (Calvin Ridley, D.J. Moore)

 

The Baltimore Ravens acquire WR Calvin Ridley from the Atlanta Falcons for CB Marcus Peters & a 2nd round pick, & a 4th round pick

Calvin Ridley stepped away from Atlanta for personal reasons 5 weeks into the 2021 season, leaving his future there considerably unclear. If a change of scenery is what he desires, it makes sense for the Falcons to secure a Top 60 draft pick for him ASAP. Ridley carries an $11.1M fully guaranteed option salary for 2022, so an extension will be in his immediate future, though his time away last season likely pumps the brakes on that out of the gate. Enough demand for him on the trade block, despite a small risk that he might not be long for the game, could easily drive his price tag up to a 1st round pick.

Marcus Peters has 1 year, $10M (non-guaranteed) remaining on his current contract, and is recovering from a terrible ACL injury suffered just prior to the 2021 opener. Atlanta will have the opportunity to work him back on a “prove it” deal (possibly with a pay cut), with a chance to keep him long-term at a position currently in need of much improvement.

Also Maybe: Bills, Jaguars - many teams assuming Ridley shows an interest to play.

 

The Minnesota Vikings acquire CB Xavien Howard from the Miami Dolphins for two 2nd round picks

The 49ers also desperately need help in their secondary, but they probably don’t possess the draft capital to put up against many other teams, especially if this price tag soars to a first round pick level. The rage in Minnesota will likely focus around the QB position this offseason, but this was nearly a Top 10 offense living with a nearly last place defense for most of 2021. So adding a few bigtime defenders could be a quick fix for this organization.

Xavien Howard has 3 years, $39M left on his current contract, but only $6.7M is fully guaranteed right now. Any kind of movement likely means ripping that up and starting over, to the tune of 4 years, $87M - his current projection in our system.

Also Maybe: Dolphins add not subtract, forcing their hand into a major extension for Howard.

 

WR Allen Robinson returns to the Jacksonville Jaguars on a 4 year, $75M free agent contract

The Jaguars desperately need help in the trenches on both sides of the ball, but it seems likely they’ll look to the draft for that as more of a long-term investment to align with Trevor Lawrence, but in the interim, getting the QB1 new toys to play with should be a priority, and a familiar face in Allen Robinson offers both high ceiling, and a bit of value based on his projected contract.

Also Maybe: Cleveland, Baltimore, Jets

 

The Kansas City Chiefs release both DE Frank Clark & LB Anthony Hitchens in cap casualty moves

The Chiefs are up against the cap threshold heading toward the 2022 league year, but do have multiple ways to free up space (restructures to Patrick Mahomes/Chris Jones, extending Tyreek Hill).

With 4.5 sacks and 2 forced fumbles, Frank Clark still made an impact in 2021, but it seems his contract is now too rich for his expected production. An early release frees up $13.4M of cap space.

With $12.7M to be saved, and a breakout season from Nick Bolton, Hitchens seems a lock to be moved on from this offseason.

Also Maybe: Clark accepts a pay cut to stick around for 2022.


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