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FORMULA 1
- PVF
- OLYMPICS
How Have Top-5 NBA Free Agent Contracts Fared
Signing a free agent player to a Top-5 free agent contract in the NBA is no recipe for long-term stability with the team the player signs with. Of the 35 players that were signed over the last 7 free agency periods (Top-5 signed contracts per the last 7 years), 45% of those contracts had some kind of movement, trade or waived, before the contract expired. 40% of the contracts had been traded before the contract had expired, but when looking at the period of 2015-16 through 2018-19, a four-year span, that number goes up to 75%. Moreover, a few of the contracts (Jimmy Butler, Chris Paul, Otto Porter Jr.) had been traded two times within that signed contract.
Movement over the last 7 years (through June 26, 2022):
- Players traded at least once within contract: 14 (40%)
- Players extended before the end of the contract: 5 (14%)
- Players waived at some point before contract expires: 2 (5%)
While the last three free agency periods have a majority of the players with the teams they signed, it is already been rumored that a few players are already on the trade block:
- Tobias Harris (PHI) has been rumored numerous times over the last 12 months
- Kevin Durant (BKN) is now mulling his tenure with the Brooklyn Nets
- Anthony Davis (LAL) has been rumored of recent to possibly be traded
- John Collins (ATL) has been rumored to potentially be traded before the new league year begins
- Duncan Robinson (MIA) has come up in reports as to what to do with him and his contract moving forward
If the trend from 2015-16 through 2018-19 continues into the contracts signed from 2019-20 through 2021-22 where the players having been rumored to be traded becomes a reality, we’re talking about a around a 50-75% chance that a player who signs a Top-5 contract in a free agency period is likely to be moved at some point before the contract expires. If you are a fan of any of the top signed free agents moving forward, beware that that player is likely going to get moved at some point in the future - most likely Year 3 or Year 4 of that contract based on what has transpired in the past.
2015-16
Signed with: Memphis Grizzlies
Contract Signed: 5 year, $113,211,750 (AAV: $22,642,350)
What Happened?
- Traded in Year 4 to Toronto
Signed with: Cleveland Cavaliers
Contract Signed: 5 year, $113,211,750 (AAV: $22,642,350)
What Happened?
- Signed a 4 year $120 million extension with Cleveland in Year 4
Signed with: San Antonio
Contract Signed: 5 year, $94,343,125 (AAV: $18,868,625)
What Happened?
- Traded to Toronto in Year 4
Signed with: Chicago Bulls
Contract Signed: 5 year, $92,339,878 (AAV: $18,467,976)
What Happened?
- Trade to Minnesota in Year 3
- Traded to Philadelphia in Year 4
- Declined Player Option for Year 5 to become an Unrestricted Free Agent
Signed with: LA Clippers
Contract Signed: 4 year, $87,616,050 (AAV: $21,904,013)
What Happened?
- Declined Player Option in Year 4 to become an Unrestricted Free Agent
2016-17
Signed with: Memphis Grizzlies
Contract Signed: 5 year, $152,605,578 (AAV: $30,521,116)
What Happened?
- Traded to Utah in Year 4
Signed with: Toronto Raptors
Contract Signed: 5 year, $139,000,000 (AAV: $27,800,000)
What Happened?
- Trade to San Antonio in Year 3
Signed with: Washington Wizards
Contract Signed: 5 year, $127,171,313 (AAV: $25,434,263)
What Happened?
- Signed a 2 year extension with Washington going into Year 4
Signed with: Detroit Pistons
Contract Signed: 5 year, $127,171,313 (AAV: $25,434,263)
What Happened?
- Traded to Cleveland in Year 4
- Waived via buyout by Cleveland in Year 5
Signed with: Charlotte Hornets
Contract Signed: 5 year, $120,000,000 (AAV: $24,000,000)
What Happened?
- Exercised Player Option in Year 5
- Waived and stretched by Charlotte 13 days after exercising Player Option
2017-18
Signed with: Golden State Warriors
Contract Signed: 5 year, $201,158,790 (AAV: $40,231,758)
What Happened?
- Signed a 4 year $215 million contract extension with Golden State going into Year 5
Signed with: Detroit Pistons
Contract Signed: 5 year, $171,174,820 (AAV: $34,234,964)
What Happened?
- Traded to Detroit in Year 1
- Waived via buyout in Year 3
Signed with: Boston Celtics
Contract Signed: 4 year, $127,829,970 (AAV: $31,957,493)
What Happened?
- Declined Player Option in Year 4 to become an Unrestricted Free Agent
Signed with: New Orleans Pelicans
Contract Signed: 5 year, $126,000,000 (AAV: $25,200,000)
What Happened?
- Traded to Milwaukee in Year 4
Signed with: Brooklyn Nets
Contract Signed: 4 year, $106,524,975 (AAV: $26,631,244)
What Happened?
- Traded to Chicago in Year 2
- Traded to Orlando in Year 4
2018-19
Signed with: Houston Rockets
Contract Signed: 4 year, $159,730,592 (AAV: $39,932,648)
What Happened?
- Traded to Oklahoma City in Year 2
- Traded to Phoenix in Year 3
Signed with: Los Angeles Lakers
Contract Signed: 4 year, $153,312,846 (AAV: $38,328,212)
What Happened?
- Signed a 2 year contract extension with Los Angeles going into Year 3
Signed with: Denver Nuggets
Contract Signed: 5 year, $147,710,050 (AAV: $29,542,010)
What Happened?
- Currently with Denver Nuggets
- Supermax extension eligible with Denver during 2022-23 offseason
Signed with: Oklahoma City Thunder
Contract Signed: 4 year, $136,911,936 (AAV: $34,227,984)
What Happened?
- Traded with LA Clippers in Year 2
Signed with: Orlando Magic
Contract Signed: 4 year $80,000,000 (AAV: $20,000,000)
What Happened?
- Traded to Denver in Year 3
- Signed a 4 year contract extension going into Year 4
2019-20
Signed with: Golden State Warriors
Contract Signed: 5 year, $189,903,600 (AAV: $37,980,720)
What Happened?
- Currently with Golden State
Signed with: Philadelphia 76ers
Contract Signed: 5 year, $180,000,000 (AAV: $36,000,000)
What Happened?
- Currently With Philadelphia
Signed with: Milwaukee Bucks
Contract Signed: 5 year, $177,500,000 (AAV: $35,500,000)
What Happened?
- Currently with Milwaukee
Signed with: Brooklyn Nets
Contract Signed: 4 year, $164,255,700 (AAV: $41,063,925)
What Happened?
- Signed a 4 year contract extension going into Year 3
Signed with: Dallas Mavericks
Contract Signed: 5 year, $158,253,000 (AAV: $31,650,600)
What Happened?
- Traded to Washington in Year 3
2020-21
Signed with: Los Angeles Lakers
Contract Signed: 5 year, $189,903,600 (AAV: $37,980,720)
What Happened?
- Currently with Los Angeles
Signed with: New Orleans Pelicans
Contract Signed: 5 year, $158,253,000 (AAV: $31,650,600)
What Happened?
- Currently with New Orleans
Signed with: Charlotte Hornets (via Sign-and-Trade with Boston)
Contract Signed: 4 year $120,000,000 (AAV: $30,000,000)
What Happened?
- Currently with Charlotte
Signed with: Toronto Raptors
Contract Signed: 4 year $85,000,000 (AAV: $21,250,000)
What Happened?
- Currently with Toronto
Signed with: Washington Wizards
Contract Signed: 5 year, $80,000,000 (AAV: $16,000,000)
What Happened?
- Traded to Dallas in Year 2
2021-22
Signed with: LA Clippers
Contract Signed: 4 year, $176,265,152 (AAV: $44,066,288)
What Happened?
- Currently with LA Clippers
- Missed all of Year 1 due to season-ending injury
Signed with: Atlanta Hawks
Contract Signed: 5 year, $125,000,000 (AAV: $25,000,000)
What Happened?
- Currently with Atlanta
Signed with: Phoenix Suns
Contract Signed: 4 year, $120,000,000 (AAV: $30,000,000)
What Happened?
- Currently with Phoenix
Signed with: Cleveland Cavaliers
Contract Signed: 5 year, $120,000,000 (AAV: $30,000,000)
What Happened?
- Currently with Cleveland
Signed with: Miami Heat
Contract Signed: 5 year, $90,000,000 (AAV: $18,000,000)
What Happened?
- Currently with Miami
CATEGORIES
- NBA 97
- NFL 72
- GOLF 55
- NWSL 47
- MLB 26
- NHL 1
AUTHORS
- Michael Ginnitti NFL, MLB
- Keith Smith NBA
- Scott Allen Contributor
- Taylor Vincent NWSL
2024 NWSL Season-Ending Injuries
Recapping the season-ending injuries that occurred during the 2024 NWSL season.
2024 NWSL Awards
Breaking down the 2024 NWSL Awards as they are announced.
NFL 2025 Roster Bubble Candidates
Spotrac’s annual NFL Roster Bubble report identifies players that have the potential to be released, traded, or retire after the current 2024 season, including notable financial ramifications for each.
A Midseason QB Contract Review
With the midway point of the 2024 NFL season now in the rearview mirror, it’s a good time to reassess where each starting quarterback stands in terms of their stability on the field, but also contractually speaking going forward.
Potential NFL Market Resetters
As we head into the second half of the 2024 regular season, the time to start collecting potential offseason contract decisions begins now. Spotrac starts that process with a look at players who are trending toward signing a contract that would reset their respective position’s market.
TRENDING PLAYERS
- 1 Daniel Jones (QB, NYG)
- 2 Aaron Rodgers (QB, NYJ)
- 3 Paul George (SG, PHI)
- 4 Joel Embiid (C, PHI)
- 5 Stephen Curry (PG, GSW)
TRENDING PAGES
- 1 NFL Free Agents
- 2 NBA Trade Machine
- 3 NFL Salary Rankings
- 4 NFL Transactions
- 5 MLB Free Agents