2022 Money Tiers: Quarterbacks

Michael Ginnitti
Michael Ginnitti, Managing Editor & NFL/MLB ExpertJuly 15, 2022
© USA TODAY Sports

With training camps approaching, we'll categorize the more notable NFL positions into "financial tiers", breaking down which players are locked in, playing for a new deal, could be on their way out, & plenty more.

 

Four for Four

Four Quarterbacks possess a contract that contains stability through the 2025 season, giving them four years of practical guarantee.

 

Kyler Murray (Cardinals, 25)

Signed Through: 2028
Guaranteed Through: 2027
Guarantee Remaining: $160M

Murray's deal would be surprisingly strong for the best quarterback in football, so for a guy who's shown signs, but hasn't yet put together a full season of top tier play, it's a bit of shocker. It'll be extremely hard for Murray to not see $215M+ out of this contract through 2027 based on guarantee structure.

 

Deshaun Watson (Browns, 27)

Signed Through: 2026
Guaranteed Through: 2026
Guarantee Remaining: $230M

Love it or hate it, the fully guaranteed multi-year QB contract is here. Watson stands to forfeit $57,500 per week missed this year due to suspension (yes, really), unless he’s given a full-year ban. If it’s the latter, his contract will toll, setting up Cleveland for a huge financial benefit in 2023, as his cap hit next year will drop from $54.9M, to $10M.

 

Patrick Mahomes (Chiefs, 27)

Signed Through: 2031
Guaranteed Through: 2025 (ish)
Guarantee Remaining: $149M

Mahomes’ contract has early guarantee triggers through 2030, making it extremely difficult for the Chiefs to maneuver around it. We’ve identified 2025 as a line of demarcation because it’s the final year where the guarantee mechanisms reduce from two years ahead to just one (2025 compensation guarantees in 2023, but the 2026 compensation doesn’t guarantee until 2025). The Chiefs opted not to restructure his contract again this year, keeping the dead cap “tenable” in 2025/2026. There’s still no easy out here, but KC is at least giving themselves a chance to sustain financial stability through the middle of this deal (when Mahomes will likely ask to rip it up and start anew).

 

Josh Allen (Bills, 26)

Signed Through: 2028
Guaranteed Through: 2025
Guarantee Remaining: $144M

To say that Allen’s deal is a 5 year, $164M contract practically speaking is to call it quite a value for the Bills, who will enter 2022 as the odds on favorites. Allen will lock in $47M this year thanks to the double bonus structure in his deal, but his $16M cap hit ranks 44th in the NFL, and 2nd on the Bills. Buffalo would like to see this contract run through at least the 2026 season, leaving 2 years, $81.5M (non-guaranteed) to restructure when Allen will be just north of 30 years old. There’s another massive deal in his future.

 

Matthew Stafford (Rams, 34)

Signed Through: 2026
Guaranteed Through: 2025
Guarantee Remaining: $152M

Talk about a perfect storm scenario, Stafford’s 2021-22 couldn’t have been scripted any better, putting him in line for what had to be a top of the market contract. While the $40M AAV doesn’t set any records, and the $63M guaranteed at signing seems paltry in comparison to others, Stafford will see $61.5M cash this year, a $57M guarantee next March, and it minimum, $120M through 2024. There’s a chance LAR is paying him $10M to leave town for 2025, but they’ll cross that bridge when they get there.

 

 

Three & We’ll See (Kind Of)

It was tempting to put this contract in the “one and done” tier, but while Green Bay trading Rodgers after 2022 is possible, Aaron leaving $110M on the table doesn’t seem so.

 

Aaron Rodgers (Packers, 39)

Signed Through: 2026
Guaranteed Through: 2024
Guarantee Remaining: $150M

There’s a lot to unpack with this contract, but the easiest takeaway is if Rodgers wants to play football for the 3 seasons, he’ll see $150M cash - no ifs ands or buts. Here’s the issue. Because the contract contains a 2022 signing bonus, a 2023 option bonus, and a 2024 option bonus, there’s bonus proration splattered all over it, which in turn becomes dead cap for the Packers. If Rodgers remains in Green Bay through 2024 (41 years old), the Packers will be staring at $76.8M of dead cap on the contract to start 2025. The contract does allow for tradeability after the 2022 season, if that becomes a thing again.

 

 

Let’s Play Two

Cousins, Ryan, & Prescott all have two more years fully guaranteed on their deals, with Kirk leading the way at a $70M payout.

 

Kirk Cousins (Vikings, 34)

Signed Through: 2023
Guaranteed Through: 2023
Guarantee Remaining: $70M

Short and sweet has done Kirk Cousins just fine over the past decade. The 34-year-old has averaged $21M cash per year over the past 6 seasons, and will cash out $40M & $30M respectively over the next two - fully guaranteed.

 

Matt Ryan (Colts, 37)

Signed Through: 2023
Guaranteed Through: 2023
Guarantee Remaining: $53.9M

The Colts tweaked Ryan’s deal a bit upon acquiring him from Atlanta, bumping up his compensation slightly, and guaranteeing the bulk of his next two seasons, the practical window of contention for this Indy squad. Ryan’s career earnings will vault to $321M at contract end.

 

Dak Prescott (Cowboys, 29)

Signed Through: 2024
Guaranteed Through: 2023
Guarantee Remaining: $51M

Dak slow-played himself into a quick and dirty $126M. His $31M salary for 2023 is already fully guaranteed, locking him in securely for the next two seasons. It’s a 1 year, $34M “option” for 2024, with a restructured extension prior to it the more likely outcome.

 

 

One & Done

For a variety of reasons, these players will be playing out 2022 with the prospect of joining the QB Carousel next March.

 

Tom Brady (Buccaneers, 45)

Signed Through: 2022
Guaranteed Through: 2022
Guarantee Remaining: $15M

How many retirements is too many retirements? Brady will earn a total of $30M in 2022, half of which comes from his previous signing bonus. The current contract carries $35.1M of dead cap in the 2023 (void years), but an extension prior to the void can reduce that down under $11M. The $30M to be made this year raises his career earnings past $332M on the field.

 

Ryan Tannehill (Titans, 34)

Signed Through: 2023
Guaranteed Through: 2022
Guarantee Remaining: $29M

The Titans put the writing on the wall with their securities about Tannehill going forward when they refused to restructure his NFL leading $38.6M cap hit this spring. It’s clear that their QB1 is on a year to year showcase, and that the only thing keeping him in the fold this season, is the $29M salary that became fully guaranteed in March of 2021. Tennessee can free up almost $18M of cap space next year to move on.

 

Carson Wentz (Commanders, 30)

Signed Through: 2024
Guaranteed Through: 2022
Guarantee Remaining: $28.3M

Washington gave up three draft picks for the right to pay Wentz $28M+ this season, but this doesn’t need to be a “one and done” situation. If we’re playing glass half full here, should the Wentz/Washington marriage work out, a 3 year, $81M contract for a veteran QB1 certainly has value. $9M of his 2023 compensation locks in early next March, so we’ll know quickly how things will proceed after 2022. There’s $0 dead cap on the deal going forward ($26.1M savings next season to move on).

 

Derek Carr (Raiders, 31)

Signed Through: 2025
Guaranteed Through: 2022
Guarantee Remaining: $24.9M

We’re just being fair to the structure here. Carr’s new contract contains just $24.8M fully guaranteed at signing, all in 2022. Another $40M is set to lock in next March, but until then, Las Vegas will have a legitimate out (if say, a certain Green Bay QB is trying to get out again). With that said, Carr was able to build in a full no-trade clause in this deal, putting him at least in charge of where his next destination might be, if anywhere.

 

Jameis Winston (Saints, 28)

Signed Through: 2024
Guaranteed Through: 2023
Guarantee Remaining: $15.2M

It’s unclear if Winston will be healthy enough to start Week 1, but at some point this season, he’ll be given a chance to win this job back for the immediate future (so says his contract). $5.8M of his $12.8M compensation in 2023 guarantees in early March, so if he’s not the guy, this will be a quick hook.

 

Marcus Mariota (Falcons, 29)

Signed Through: 2023
Guaranteed Through: 2022
Guarantee Remaining: $6.75M

Mariota gets another attempt to showcase his starting QB abilities, and there are worse offensive situations to be dropped into. A tight end heavy, mobile quarterback friendly offense could really match well with a seasoned Mariota, despite Atlanta projecting to be one of the worst teams in all of football this year. A $3M roster bonus next March will be a sticking point for 2023.

 

Mitchell Trubisky (Steelers, 28)

Signed Through: 2023
Guaranteed Through: 2022
Guarantee Remaining: $5.25M

We’re projecting Trubisky to win the QB1 spot over Kenny Pickett out of the gate, but there’s no reason to believe he’ll hold serve for 18 weeks. His $6.2M compensation for 2022 aligns with high-end backup pay, so Pittsburgh isn’t reaching in any regard to take this shot.

 

Daniel Jones (Giants, 25)

Signed Through: 2022
Guaranteed Through: 2022
Guarantee Remaining: $4.2M

Despite a vote of confidence from the new regime, Daniel Jones saw his $22.3M option for 2023 declined this May, putting him on an expiring rookie contract in New York. The Giants seem poised to give him every opportunity to prove his worth this season, but they also handed out $8M+ guaranteed to Tyrod Taylor this March, including nearly $3M in 2023.

 

Drew Lock (Seahawks, 26)

Signed Through: 2022
Guaranteed Through: N/A
Guarantee Remaining: $0

Will Sam Darnold, Geno Smith or Jimmy Garoppolo poach the starting gig from Lock prior to Week 1? Maybe, but we’re projecting otherwise right now. Lock seems the perfect candidate to get Seattle through an expedited rebuild/tank this year, putting them in position to select their future QB1 in the 2023 draft. Is the roster too talented to succeed in this fashion? It’s possible, but Seattle may not yet be done subtracting this offseason.

 

 

Who Blinks First?

A couple of MVP caliber quarterbacks who can’t seem to get on the same page with their respective teams in terms of their sophomore extensions. Kyler seems likely to get this done by August. Lamar looks more like a 2023/tag conversation.

 

Lamar Jackson (Ravens, 25)

Signed Through: 2022
Guaranteed Through: 2022
Guarantee Remaining: $23M

Despite plenty of “reports”, the fact of the matter is that a new contract for Lamar Jackson doesn’t currently exist, and it appears that will be the case for the 2022 season. This means that an exclusive franchise tag is likely coming next February, putting plenty of pressure on the Ravens to resolve this. He projects to a 4 year, $176M extension in our system.

 

 

The Brinks Truck Is En Route

Big money is coming, will it all be fully guaranteed?

 

Russell Wilson (Broncos, 34)

Signed Through: 2023
Guaranteed Through: N/A
Guarantee Remaining: $0

As Matthew Stafford did with the Rams last offseason, Wilson and the Broncos appear poised to play the “one year to settle in” plan before dealing with a new contract. Wilson’s current contract holds $51M through 2023, but none of it is guaranteed. If all goes well this year, the 34 year old projects to a 4 year, $176M extension next offseason.

 

Joe Burrow (Bengals, 26)

Signed Through: 2023 (+2024 option)
Guaranteed Through: 2023
Guarantee Remaining: $9.4M

Burrow will become extension eligible for the first time after the 2022 season. If the upcoming season looks anything like 2021 did, the fully guaranteed $50M per year request will send itself. But are the Bengals the type of organization to meet these top of the market demands? There are plenty of scenarios that tell us no. This situation could go from amazing to terrible in a hot minute. With that said, including the no-brainer 5th year option in 2024, Cincy has 3 years of team control ahead of them, even if the new contract noise gets louder and louder by the week.

 

Justin Herbert (Chargers, 24)

Signed Through: 2023 (+2024 option)
Guaranteed Through: 2023Guarantee Remaining: $7.2M

Herbert will become extension eligible for the first time after the 2022 season, and while he doesn’t have the team success that a Joe Burrow currently possesses, he has ALL the individual numbers on his side. The 24 year old currently projects to a 6 year, $258M extension, putting him in line with Josh Allen’s recent deal with the Bills. If the other LA team can put it together this year, the sky might be the limit here financially.

 

 

Hanging on for Dear Life

Goff can certainly play himself into another season (he has 3 left under contract), while Baker is playing for some kind of contract in 2023.

 

Jared Goff (Lions, 28)

Signed Through: 2024
Guaranteed Through: 2022
Guarantee Remaining: $26M

Goff threw 19 TDs against 8 INTs in 14 games for the Lions last year, posting a 91 Passer Rating, his highest in 3 seasons. He’s almost certainly not the long term answer for Detroit, but he’ll prove to be an adequate stopgap for the time being. The Lions can walk away from the remaining 2 years, $52.3M after 2022 with a $10M dead cap hit.

 

Baker Mayfield (Panthers, 27)

Signed Through: 2022
Guaranteed Through: 2022
Guarantee Remaining: $18.8M

No surprise here. Mayfield will compete with Darnold for the starting gig in Carolina (potentially on a weekly basis?). The Panthers will pay out around $4.8M in base pay ($3.5M incentives), while Cleveland takes on $10.5M of retained salary to move on. Does he get Trubisky’ed next year? Franchise tagged? Extended? All are possible.

 

 

Make it Or Break It (Up)

While these three quarterbacks have plenty of team control left on their rookie deals, there’s a sense that for Tua & Hurts, the organizations have done all they can to provide them the best “showcase” season possible. If they don’t hold up their end of the bargain, it’s widely expected that their respective teams will look elsewhere going forward. For Mills, he’s a solid prospect, acting as a stopgap in a slow Houston rebuild.

 

Tua Tagovailoa (Dolphins, 24)

Signed Through: 2023 (+2024 option)
Guaranteed Through: 2023
Guarantee Remaining: $8.1M

The Dolphins certainly upped the stakes with Tua’s immediate future status, adding key pieces to every facet of the roster (including Teddy Bridgewater as a QB2). Factor in a creative, offensive-minded coach, and an owner seemingly trying everything to win (Tom Brady, Sean Payton, etc…), and it’s an understatement to say this is a big year for Tua.

 

Jalen Hurts (Eagles, 24)

Signed Through: 2023
Guaranteed Through: N/A
Guarantee Remaining: $0

Like Tua (above), Hurts has been given plenty of toys to play with offensively over the past two offseasons, and will be firmly in the spotlight as a breakout candidate for 2022. Unlike Tua, Jalen’s rookie contract guarantees have all expired, putting him on a year to year basis through 2023 (no 5th year option available thereafter). 

 

Davis Mills (Texans, 24)

Signed Through: 2024
Guaranteed Through: N/A
Guarantee Remaining: $0

Mills showed enough late last year to earn the QB1 job for a team going through a slow rebuild right now. But he’ll need to take a leap in 2022 to have a chance to be in the future plans for the Texans. Though his contract holds 3 years, $3.4M left, none of it is guaranteed.

 

 

Let’s Give it A Minute

These five quarterbacks are entering year two of their rookie contracts, with a few (Lawrence/Jones) at least starting to be considered for a second deal. It’s a big year for all (maybe excluding Justin Fields in his current climate).

 

Trevor Lawrence (Jaguars, 23)

Signed Through: 2024 (+2025 option)
Guaranteed Through: 2024
Guarantee Remaining: $12M

While Lawrence racked up plenty of yardage (3,640), the efficiency numbers left plenty to desire (12 TD, 17 INT, 72 rating). But we’ve seen plenty of historic QBs go through rookie campaigns like this, only to break out 12-24 months later. Jacksonville’s aggressive offseason both with the coaching staff and the active roster puts Lawrence on a great path to succeed in 2022.

 

Zach Wilson (Jets, 23)

Signed Through: 2024 (+2025 option)
Guaranteed Through: 2024
Guarantee Remaining: $11.5M

Wilson completed 55% of his passes for 2,334 yards and a 70 rating in his rookie campaign, making Jets fans feel extremely Jets-y. The front office combatted that with a big offseason via draft & free agency (including a legitimate run at Tyreek Hill), creating what may be a false optimism, but at least putting Wilson in a better spot than he was a year ago. There’s no reason to sniff a 2nd contract discussion here yet.

 

Trey Lance (49ers, 22)

Signed Through: 2024 (+2025 option)
Guaranteed Through: 2024
Guarantee Remaining: $11.3M

We’re projecting Lance to win the QB1 gig over Garoppolo this summer, and that’s about all we can project. The Niners gave up a trade package to select Lance that suggests he’s the next coming of Steve Young in San Francisco, but with Deebo Samuel disgruntled, OC Mike McDaniel now in Miami, and a few offensive lineman questionable still, middle of the road might be the best case scenario here in 2022.

 

Justin Fields (Bears, 23)

Signed Through: 2024 (+2025 option)
Guaranteed Through: 2024

Guarantee Remaining: $7.1M

It was a rough rookie campaign for Fields, who threw 7 TDs against 11 INTs for a 73 rating in 12 games. The good news? He’ll have full control of this offense out of the gate. The bad news? There’s a lot of “new” around him, and not much evidence that it’s going to lead to any success. This might very well be a Lamar Jackson type year for Fields, where he’s asked to do everything with his superpowers.

 

Mac Jones (Patriots, 24)

Signed Through: 2024 (+2025 option)
Guaranteed Through: 2024
Guarantee Remaining: $6.14M

Year one for Jones saw 3,800 yards, 22/13 TD/INT, a 92.5 rating, and a #11 QB grade from PFF. There’s a ton of optimism, and a few new weapons around him, but with Josh McDaniels departed, there’s still no reason to rush into a $40M conversation.


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