Home Run Derby Breakdown

Dan Soemann
Dan Soemann, Resident MLB ExpertJuly 15, 2022
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(1) Kyle Schwarber vs (8) Albert Pujols
Kyle Schwarber leads the NL and all Derby participants with (28) HRs and was rewarded with the top overall seed. Appearing in his 11th All Star Game and 5th Home Run Derby, Pujols is a great nostalgia story but it’s hard to imagine him getting past Kyle Schwarber and keeping pace with this field through two additional rounds.

(2) Pete Alonso vs (7) Ronald Acuna
Alonso is the two time reigning champ and has the most HRs in Derby history (131) but somehow earned the second seed. He’s still the betting favorite but faces perhaps the toughest first round opponent not named Schwarber. I’m not betting against Alonso but Ronald Acuna’s plus plus raw power could play perfectly here. He’s as good of a bet as any if he finds a rhythm and gets through the first round.

(3) Corey Seager vs (6) Julio Rodriguez
Seager returns to Dodger stadium for the first time since signing a massive free agent deal with the Rangers last offseason. He’s typically not thought of as a power hitter but Seager is enjoying a career year and has (22) HRs through the first half - almost matching his career high of 26. Rookie of the Year candidate Julio Rodriguez is favored but I’m more likely to side with the proven veteran given the odds.

(4) Juan Soto vs (5) Jose Ramirez
This matchup is a coin flip and there’s not much to analyze. Two of the best all around hitters in the game and both could easily win this if things fall right. Soto got off to a slow start but has found his power stroke in the past week while Ramirez is as consistent as they come.


Wager of the Week

I agree with Vegas that Schwarber and Alonso are the easy favorites here but the field is talented enough for me to hesitate at the current odds. 

My favorite bets are down the board a bit. Seager is absolutely hammering the ball right now and should be comfortable in his former home stadium. Jose Ramirez has one of the easiest power swings in the game and could compete with anyone in the field across three rounds.

  • Corey Seager (+1200)
  • Jose Ramirez (+1400)

 

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