MLB Financial Offseason Series: AL Central

Michael Ginnitti
Michael Ginnitti, Managing Editor & NFL/MLB ExpertOctober 27, 2022
Share
#chicago white sox #cleveland indians #detroit tigers #kansas city royals #minnesota twins
© USA TODAY Sports
Breaking down the upcoming offseason for each 2023 MLB franchise, broken down by division, including projected payrolls, guaranteed contract, notable free agents, potential extension candidates, & trade/non-tender options. Guardians, White Sox, Twins, Tigers, Royals

Related Offseason Division Pieces

Cleveland Guardians

Guaranteed Contracts: 3 (23rd)

Current Tax Payroll: $49.5M (27th)

Projected Arbitration: $38.1M

Projected Pre-Arbitration: $10.3M

Projected Tax Payroll: $98M (25th)

Projected Tax Space: $135M (6th)

Notable Options: Bryan Shaw (RP, $4M club)

Notable Free Agents: Austin Hedges (C)

The Guardians used a big second half to chase down and easily surpass the rest of the AL Central field, finishing with 92 wins, 22 games over .500 and 11 games ahead of the 2nd place White Sox. They hold an incredible amount of team control down their 40-man roster this offseason.

EXTENSION CANDIDATE(S)

Andres Gimenez (SS, 24)

Acquired from the Mets in the Francisco Lindor trade, Gimenez has established himself both defensively and at the plate - where he’s added power to his game of late. He seems to possess all of the tools to be an everyday middle infielder for the next 10 years. Can the Guardians get him to take a small market pre-arbitration extension? He posted an eye-popping 7.25 WAR in 2022, 4th in MLB.

Steven Kwan (OF, 25)

It was quite a rookie campaign, as Kwan posted 168 hits, 25 doubles, and a .298/.373/.400/.733 slash line for Cleveland. The Guardians are notorious for jumping early on contracts for these types of players, but with Myles Straw already locked in (questionably), is another $25M+ contract for a non-power-hitting player good business? 

TRADE CANDIDATE(S)

Amed Rosario (SS, 27)

Rosario holds 1 more year of arbitration, projected to earn around $9M for the 2023 season before hitting the open market. Over the past two seasons, he’s averaged 25 doubles, 7 triples, 11 homers,  64 RBIs & 15 stolen bases for the Guardians. He’s a versatile fielder, and will enter his final year of arbitration at 27 years old. With youngster Andres Gimenez able to slide over to his more normal SS position, flipping Rosario for more depth would be a very Cleveland-like move.

NON-TENDER CANDIDATE(S)

Luke Maile (C, 32)

A late bloomer, Maile is arbitration eligible for the 4th and final time next season, projected to earn around $1M for the upcoming season. With youngsters Bo Naylor & Bryan Lavastida vying to crack the opening day roster, one of Cleveland’s top priorities this offseason will be to bring in a low rent veteran catcher as a complementary piece. Oakland’s Sean Murphy is a popular thought here.

Chicago White Sox

Guaranteed Contracts: 11 (2nd)

Current Tax Payroll: $144M (9th)

Projected Arbitration: $24.3M

Projected Pre-Arbitration: $3.1M

Projected Tax Payroll: $171M (8th)

Projected Tax Space: $62M (23rd)

Notable Options: A.J. Pollock (OF, $13M player), Tim Anderson (SS, $12.5M club), Josh Harrison (2B, $5.625M club)

Notable Free Agents: Jose Abreu (1B, 35), Johnny Cueto (SP, 36), Elvis Andrus (SS, 34), FULL LIST

The 81-81 White Sox have to be considered a disappointment, as the entered the 2022 season as clear division favorites. Chicago has spent the past few offseasons locking up their young core, and slowly adding veteran pieces to ramp up back into contention. Will 2023 be the winter they find the correct pieces to the puzzle, or is it time for subtraction before more addition?

EXTENSION CANDIDATE(S)

Dylan Cease (SP, 27)

Cease is eligible for a first time through arbitration this winter, scheduled to earn around $5M in 2023. The 27-year-old posted a 2.20 ERA, 1.1 WHIP, and 227 strikeouts across 32 starts last year, further supplanting his place at the top of this rotation. He’s already a $25M player in our system, but with 3 years of control baked in, could Lance McCullers’ 5 year, $85M deal in Houston offer a better framework?

TRADE CANDIDATE(S)

Lucas Giolito (SP, 28)

This one just never seemed to hit. The former #16 overall pick back in 2012 was given plenty of chances to earn a top of the rotation roster spot, but it seems he’s destined to be a #3 or #4 from here out. His final year of arbitration projects to come with an $11M salary, so if Chicago is looking to shed a little payroll, finding a change of scenery for Giolito could be on the list.

Yoan Moncada (3B, 28)

After a scorching 2019 campaign, Moncada has really fallen back down to earth across the past 3 seasons. With 2 years, $42.6M remaining on this deal, finding a trade partner won’t be easy, but it only takes one team to think they can “fix” a player to get the wheels in motion.

NON-TENDER CANDIDATE(S)

Adam Engel (OF, 30)

Engel is out of minors options and slated for a $2.3M salary in his final arbitration year.

Kyle Crick (RP, 29)

Crick is out of options and doesn’t currently project to hold a consistent spot in the bullpen next season. He’s projected to earn around $1.6M in his final year of arbitration.

Minnesota Twins

Guaranteed Contracts: 4 (21st)

Current Tax Payroll: $87M (19th)

Projected Arbitration: $37.4M

Projected Pre-Arbitration: $5.5M

Projected Tax Payroll: $130M (19th)

Projected Tax Space: $103M (12th)

Notable Options: Carlos Correa (SS, $35.1M player), Miguel Sano (3B, $14.25M club), Sonny Gray (SP, $12.7M club), FULL LIST

Notable Free Agents: Gary Sanchez (C, 29), Michael Fulmer (P, 29), Daniel Coulombe (P, 33), FULL LIST

Minnesota posted their second straight losing season, and completely collapsed in September down the stretch. The Twins moved on from 3 notable players prior to 2022, and they seem poised to do much of the same again this winter.

EXTENSION CANDIDATE(S)

Luis Arraez (1B, 26)

Arraez spoiled Aaron Judge’s triple crown dreams by stealing the batting title in 2022, but he doesn’t possess the power numbers to be anywhere near that type of player. He did however post 173 hits in 144 games, including 31 doubles and a 4.09 WAR. Arraez currently projects to a 5 year, $58M extension in our system, a deal that would buy out his final 3 years of arbitration, plus two years of free agency.

TRADE CANDIDATE(S)

Max Kepler (OF, 30)

With 1 year, $8.5M + a $10M option ($1M buyout) remaining on his contract, finding a team for Kepler, despite a career low 2022 campaign, shouldn’t be too unreasonable.

Giovanny Urshela (SS, 31)

Acquired from the Yankees in the deal that sent Josh Donaldson to the Bronx, Ursehla posted a strong overall 2022 campaign, and is worthy of sticking around another year. But if the Twins want to hand the keys over to Jose Miranda, while also shedding a little payroll in order to ramp up for their next big shortstop move, Urshela holds value. The 31-year-old projects toward a $9M salary for the final year of his arbitration.

NON-TENDER CANDIDATE(S)

Emilio Pagan (RP, 31, $4M)

Pagan appeared in 59 games for the Twins but posted a career worst 1.3 WHIP, -0.54 WAR for his efforts. Minnesota will try to trade the veteran reliever this winter, but moving on from the $4M projected salary in some capacity seems a given here.

Detroit Tigers

Guaranteed Contracts: 5 (17th)

Current Tax Payroll: $104M (16th)

Projected Arbitration: $23.6M

Projected Pre-Arbitration: $8.7M

Projected Tax Payroll: $136M (18th)

Projected Tax Space: $97M (13th)

Notable Options: Andrew Chafin (RP, $7M player)

Notable Free Agents: Drew Hutchison (P, 32), Tucker Barnhart (C, 31), Daniel Norris (P, 29)

The Tigers' expensive offseason didn't translate to wins on the field, as Detroit finished 2022 30 games under .500, 4th in the AL Central. They begin 2023 with a $100M+ tax payroll for the first time in a long time, and with a new front office now intact, could pump the brakes on things financially for a year.

EXTENSION CANDIDATE(S)

Eric Haase (C, 30)

Haase can probably be considered the lone standout in what was just a bag of bad luck, bad performances, and bad decision making for the Tigers in 2022. Is it likely Detroit locks in a 30 year old catcher with 4 years of team control still ahead of him? Nope. But if anyone stands a chance this winter - it’s Haase.

TRADE CANDIDATE(S)

Jose Cisnero (RP, 33)

Cisnero is set to earn around $2.25M in his final year of arbitration, and was one of the more consistent Tigers’ in 2022. If the game plan for Detroit is to subtract a little bit before considering to add again, this is a candidate.

Joe Jimenez (RP, 28)

Jimenez enters the final year of his team control with a $2.6M projected salary. He’s shown an ability to close games, act in a setup role, and remain durable and available for 4 straight seasons.

NON-TENDER CANDIDATE(S)

Jeimer Candelario (3B, 28, $6.8M)

There’s no question Detroit would like to move away from a near $7M projected salary next season, but do they have a viable replacement at 3rd base?

Victor Reyes (OF, 28, $1.7M)

The Tigers are set to debut an outfield filled with current/former top prospects, so depth players like Reyes are probably on the bubble.

Harold Castro (3B, 28, $1.25M)

Castro showed a tad more power this year than in previous seasons, but the 3B position in Detroit as a whole is a bit of a mess. 

Kansas City Royals

Guaranteed Contracts: 3 (23rd)

Current Tax Payroll: $51.6M (25th)

Projected Arbitration: $27.2M

Projected Pre-Arbitration: $11.1M

Projected Tax Payroll: $90M (26th)

Projected Tax Space: $143M (5th)

Notable Options: None

Notable Free Agents: Zack Greinke (SP, 39), Daniel Mengden (P, 29), Arodys Vizcaino (RP, 31)

As expected the Royals brought up the rear in the AL Central, finishing 2022 32 games under .500, and 27 games back from Cleveland. Their -170 run differential was 4th worst in MLB. They turn the page to 2022 with just 3 guaranteed contracts on their books, and quite a few question marks.

EXTENSION CANDIDATE(S)

Brady Singer (SP, 26)

Singer is headed to arbitration for the first time this winter, and he was one of the brighter takeaways from KC’s 2022 campaign. The former 1st round pick posted a 3.23 ERA, 1.1 WHIP, and 150 strikeouts in 153 innings, compiling a team-high 4.46 WAR for his efforts. If the Royals are going to start climbing back up this division, they’ll need pitching to do so. Singer projects to a 5 year, $77M extension in our system this winter.

TRADE CANDIDATE(S)

Salvador Perez (C, 33)

He’s still as valuable both at the plate and behind it as ever, but the Royals are in the middle of yet another massive roster re-tooling. With 3 years, $62M left on Perez’s contract, is that money better spent elsewhere from KC’s point of view, or is it money better earned on a winning franchise from the player’s outlook?

NON-TENDER CANDIDATE(S)

Adalberto Mondesi (SS, 27, $3M)

Let me start by saying that this isn’t a highly likely move, but it’s at least to be considered. While availability has been a massive problem here, a projected $3M salary for 2023 shouldn’t be daunting enough to seal his departure. With Bobby Witt Jr. able to play anywhere on the left side of the infield, and Nicky Lopez a better option for a defensive utility man, Mondesi’s role on this team may simply be too small to keep around.


#chicago white sox #cleveland indians #detroit tigers #kansas city royals #minnesota twins
Top