The Struggles of Recently Extended Quarterbacks

Michael Ginnitti
Michael Ginnitti, Managing Editor & NFL/MLB ExpertOctober 28, 2022
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#tom brady #kirk cousins #aaron rodgers #deshaun watson #jerry tillery #derek carr #russell wilson #matthew stafford
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8 veteran quarterbacks were handed contract extensions prior to the 2022 regular season. All 8 of those quarterbacks are currently underproducing per their career standards. Our dive into the numbers

Aaron Rodgers

Signed a 3 year, $150.8M extension to remain with the Packers this past March. Rodgers & the Packers are off to a 3-4 start, with a tough Buffalo matchup waiting for them this weekend.

Rodgers is posting 6 year lows in many of the passing categories to start the year, including 228 yards per game, a 94.3 rating, 6 fumbles, and a 26 touchdown pace. A damaged throwing hand thumb can certainly be factored in, but this is an offense with very little cohesion right now.

Contractually the two sides will have to be 100% committed to each other at the end of the season in order to proceed as is. A $58.3M option bonus is set to hit the books 5 days into the 2023 waiver period, setting up a boatload of dead cap for the Packers no matter how this thing ends. The same can be said in 2024, when a $47M option bonus will kick in.

 

Matthew Stafford

Stafford was rewarded by the Rams for his Super Bowl winning 2021 campaign with a 4 year, $160M extension, including $61.5M cash in 2022. LA finds themselves 3-3 heading into November, a game behind the Seahawks in the NFC West.

Statistically, Stafford is completing a career-best 71% of his passes, but the yardage is down, the TDs are down, the interceptions are up, the fumbles are up, and passer rating (84.6) is miserably down. Like the Packers, LA doesn’t appear to have enough horses in the barn to run a successful offense currently.

Contractually, Stafford is fully guaranteed through 2023, and 2024 fully guarantees next March. Then $10M of 2025 guarantees March of 2024. So for all intents and purposes, there’s at least $70M more to be squeezed out of this contract - for better or worse.

 

Russell Wilson

The mystery of Russell Wilson’s lost production isn’t being solved any time soon. The last place 2-5 Broncos look about as disjointed as an offense can.

Wilson is completing 58% of his passes. He has 5 passing TDs in 6 games. His 83.3 Passer Rating puts him just behind Davis Mills. And he’s on pace to rush for just 240 yards on the ground, a facet of his game that appears to have vanished for good. 

Contractually, he should be heading toward a non-guaranteed $27M salary on an expiring contract - if not for the $161M guaranteed extension he was blindly handed this past September. Wilson is fully guaranteed through the 2024 season right now, and his 2025 salary locks in when March 2024 rolls around. There are no per game bonuses, no workout bonuses, no early roster bonuses that can be restructured or converted. It’s just guaranteed salary for 3 ½ more years.

 

Derek Carr

Carr was heading into an expiring contract year before the Raiders extended him out 3 years, $121.5M. The new deal carries $65.2M of potential guarantees - but only $25M at signing (his 2022 compensation.

Statistically, Carr’s resume isn’t as daunting as some of the other names on this list, but he’s certainly on pace to finish with lower numbers than last year across the board. His current 91.3 Passer Rating is his lowest number since 2017, as is his 63.5% completion rate.

This is a contract to watch in the coming months, as it truly can be a 1 year, $25M deal in its simplest form. If he’s healthy, the Raiders can release Carr before February 15th, owing him no additional salary, while taking on a measly $5.6M dead cap hit ($29.2M saved). After this date, his $33M salary for 2023, + $7.5M of 2024 compensation becomes fully guaranteed. All $40M of this is currently guaranteed for injury right now.

 

Kyler Murray

Despite completing 65% of his passes, Murray is down about 30 passing yards per game, and his 83.7 Passer Rating is almost 17 points lower than his 2021 finish.

The timing and structure of this contract have been well documented (especially from us), but it’s worth saying it again, as the Cardinals find themselves 3-4 and in the NFC West basement. Murray’s going to earn $219M through 2027, from someone. He possesses one of the strongest contract structures in the history of the NFL.

 

Deshaun Watson

Statistically speaking - nope.

Contractually, Watson has already cashed in $44.965M this year. When he returns to the Browns, he’ll pocket another $402,500 for the remainder of the 2022 campaign. Then it’s $46M x 4 years, fully guaranteed from here out: $184M

 

Kirk Cousins

Don’t forget about Kirk. The Vikings tacked on $35M guaranteed to Cousins’ previous contract for salary cap (and football) purposes. He’s basically posted numbers that align with his career, however the efficiency is down - a path we’re seeing with all of these listed quarterbacks.

Cousins’ passer rating currently sits at 88.7, 14 points less than last season. He’s on pace for 14 INTs after throwing only 7 in 2021.

Contractually, Kirk is inline for another $30M (guaranteed) in 2023, and currently holds a fairly tenable $36.25M cap hit next season.

 

Tom Brady

After he unretired, the Buccaneers freed up $8.3M of much needed cap space by restructuring Brady’s previous contract. The maneuver increased Brady’s cash from $12.2M up to $30M, the 2nd largest single season payout in his career.

Through 8 games, Brady’s numbers aren’t awful. They’re just not translating into TDs at near the rate he’s used to producing at. In fact, of the 7 QBs listed here, Brady’s 92.37 passer rating is by far the best. His 283 yards per game is by far the best. But the 19 TD passes he’s on pace for is eerily low.

Contractually, this is still a 1 year deal for Brady, as the Bucs utilized void years to spread the cap out in their favor. If (when) he walks away after 2022, Tampa Bay will have $35.1M of dead cap to deal with in 2023.


#tom brady #kirk cousins #aaron rodgers #deshaun watson #jerry tillery #derek carr #russell wilson #matthew stafford
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