2023 NBA Cap Space Projections: December Edition

Keith Smith
Keith Smith, Resident NBA ExpertDecember 06, 2022
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Quite a few things have changed since we did our last round of cap space projections following 2022 free agency. Donovan Mitchell was traded to the Cleveland Cavaliers, Bojan Bogdanovic was traded to the Detroit Pistons and Patrick Beverley was moved to the Los Angeles Lakers. On the extension front, several veterans have reached contract extensions and multiple players signed rookie scale extensions.

There will be more trades to come with "Early Trade Season" opening soon. And there are going to be even more veteran extensions over the months to come.

With all that in mind, it’s time to look at some updated 2023 cap space projections.

(Note: 538’s 2022-23 NBA standings projections have been used here to determine 2023 NBA Draft selections and their corresponding cap holds. Projections on options, guarantees and renouncements have also been made. No trades have been projected for any teams.)

Cap Space Teams

  1. Houston Rockets - $59.3 million
  2. Indiana Pacers - $49.8 million
  3. San Antonio Spurs - $47.1 million
  4. Detroit Pistons - $44.8 million
  5. Utah Jazz - $42.6 million
  6. Los Angeles Lakers - $33.4 million
  7. Orlando Magic - $32.8 million
  8. Oklahoma City Thunder - $29.0 million
  9. Charlotte Hornets - $18.4 million

Nine teams project to have cap space, and it could end up being fewer than that.

The Rockets seem likely to lead the cap space derby, as they have a roster that is mostly full of players on their rookie scale deals. Houston did knock a bit of their spending power off by inking Kevin Porter Jr. to an extension. But the Rockets got a great value, so it was smart to get that done at the expense of some 2022 spending power. Lastly, Houston seems like a near lock to have a bottom-three record, and thus a 14% chance at Victor Wembanyama.

Indiana could eat into some of their space by doing a renegotiation-and-extension with Myles Turner. Even if that happens, the Pacers should still have a sizeable chunk of cap space. That makes them a very interesting team, as they have a fun mix of young players and solid veterans, which supports them playing much better than was expected.

The Spurs seemingly have no interest in winning this year, as they’ve lost 11 straight as of this writing. They’re also liberally resting players whenever they can. That has San Antonio primed at a run at Wembanyama or Scoot Henderson. So, it should be a good pick, plus plenty of cap space for the Spurs this summer.

Detroit has had a lot of injuries, and that’s got them worse off than expected. But another high draft pick to team with an already exciting young core and nearly $45 million in spending power means the future remains bright. The Pistons did eat a bit into their spending power by signing Bojan Bogdanovic to an extension, but he’s still on a very tradable contract moving forward.

Utah is tough to peg. They’ve been better than expected, but have shown some signs of slipping over the last few weeks. Except the Jazz to get healthy and then give it a month or so to see where they are at. If they keep sliding in the standings, they could sell off the rest of their vets and this cap space projection could rise. If the Jazz play well, it makes it more likely they’ll keep some guys around and this number could drastically lessen. Keep an eye on Utah and the standings over the next two months.

The Lakers have more or less held steady, but by trading Talen Horton-Tucker for Patrick Beverley, they have the ability to clear over $30 million in cap space. The big question: Will Los Angeles sacrifice cap space and future draft picks to make a trade to help them win now?

Orlando could be a swing team. If they choose to keep players like Mo Bamba and Gary Harris, that’ll eat up all of the Magic’s potential cap space. That seems a little unlikely as both the frontcourt and guard lines are looking a bit crowded. And that’s true even despite lots of injuries. Expect Orlando to be a cap space team in July, in addition to being in the mix for Wembanyama or Henderson.

Oklahoma City tied up some future cap space by extending Kenrich Williams, but it was such a good value, that it was well worth it. The Thunder still have plenty of flexibility to play with, plus will likely add another good draft pick to the mix. One thing to watch? Roster spots are getting tight in OKC.

The Hornets remain a swing team. The Miles Bridges situation remains unsettled. If the Hornets were to keep control of his free agent rights, they won’t have cap space. If they set him free, and maybe move a veteran or two for expiring deals, Charlotte could create even more than what we’ve projected here. The Hornets are a team to keep an eye on over the next month or so.

Non-Taxpayer Mid-Level Teams

  1. Chicago Bulls
  2. Memphis Grizzlies
  3. Minnesota Timberwolves
  4. Sacramento Kings

Cap flexibility is a bit of a division between haves and have-nots in the summer of 2023. That’s reflected by just these four teams looking like they’ll have the Non-Taxpayer MLE to use.

The Grizzlies are the easiest team to slot in here. They’ve got a mostly full roster after extending their own players over the years. The only real free agent of note is Dillon Brooks, and there’s a decent chance he could be the next player to extend. But even with Brooks at a fair number for both sides and Memphis should have enough room to use the full Non-Taxpayer MLE.

The Bulls, Wolves and Kings are all swing teams. If they choose to move on from some of their veterans (Nikola Vucevic, D’Angelo Russell and Harrison Barnes), then they could all be cap space teams. If they retain their rights to re-sign them, or move them in deals to bring in other players, they’ll be over the cap. But all could still be far enough under the tax to use the full MLE.

Taxpayer Mid-Level Teams

  1. Atlanta Hawks
  2. Boston Celtics
  3. Brooklyn Nets
  4. Cleveland Cavaliers
  5. Dallas Mavericks
  6. Denver Nuggets
  7. Golden State Warriors
  8. LA Clippers
  9. Miami Heat
  10. Milwaukee Bucks
  11. New Orleans Pelicans
  12. New York Knicks
  13. Philadelphia 76ers
  14. Phoenix Suns
  15. Portland Trail Blazers
  16. Toronto Raptors
  17. Washington Wizards

This is a pretty huge group of teams dancing around the luxury tax line. The thing all of these teams have in common is that they’re already locked in to the core of their rosters for at least the next two seasons.

Many of these teams have re-signed players to max or near-max deals in recent years. A few have pending free agents who will be pushing for a max deal next offseason. And a handful are already all but guaranteed to be over the tax.

The Cleveland Cavaliers fall into this group now, as they acquired Donovan Mitchell for several players late in the offseason. Instead of being a potential cap space team, the Cavs now have a core group locked in for the foreseeable future. If they re-sign Caris LeVert and/or Kevin Love, Cleveland will be working around the tax line.

Of this group, the teams that could end up with a bit more cap flexibility are Brooklyn, Dallas, Portland, Toronto and Washington.

Brooklyn remains in a weird spot. If Kyrie Irving walks, Kevin Durant might reissue his trade demand. At that point, who knows what the Nets cap space situation will be? At the very least, Brooklyn would have to come away by being well under the tax line.

The Mavericks have a few key free agents, plus a couple of players on partially guaranteed contracts they could move on from. If so, they’d free up some ability to make moves around Luka Doncic.

The Trail Blazers are only going to be flexible if they let Jerami Grant walk. That seems unlikely to happen, unless Portland draws a hard line at what they’ll extend Grant for. An extension for Grant is also likely. They’ll probably be right around, or slightly over, the tax with Grant back in the fold.

Toronto could potentially put themselves in position to have cap space, but that would mean moving on from Fred VanVleet and Gary Trent Jr. It’s more likely they’ll have those guys back, or have moved them in a trade, and that means the Raptors will be working around the tax line.

Washington has Bradley Beal on his massive new deal, but that’s really their only substantial long-term money. Their summer really hinges on what happens with Kristaps Porzingis and Kyle Kuzma. If either re-signs for big money, the Wizards will be up against the tax.


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