Financially Assessing the Russell Wilson Disaster

Michael Ginnitti
Michael Ginnitti, Managing Editor & NFL/MLB ExpertDecember 28, 2022
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Russell Wilson’s splashdown in Denver went about as poorly as possible, forcing many to ask the question - what now?

DISCLAIMER: The only correct answer to this question is, hire a new coach, and ride this thing out for a few more years. However, for the sake of answering all of the possible questions - we’ll entertain all options below.

The Basics

Wilson’s contract contains 6 years, $239M remaining. As of today, $67M of that cash is fully guaranteed, with another $40M of bonus proration bringing us to a real-time dead cap total of $107M. Wilson’s cap figure for 2023 is currently set at $22M (less than 10% of a projected $225M league salary cap).

(Again, this is all for hypothetical purposes only. Wilson will 100% be back in Denver next season with hopes that a new coaching staff can be the magic wand to immediately fix everything)

A March 2023 Release

$25M of base salary accelerates, $42M of unexercised option bonus accelerates, $40M of signing bonus proration accelerates.
2023 Dead Cap Hit: $107M ($67M of which is straight cash)

A Post June 1st Release

$25M of base salary accelerates, $22M of future unexercised option bonus accelerates, $60M of bonus proration is split between 2023/2024. They’d still owe him $67M cash, but the 2023 option bonus would have been exercised, allowing it to prorate for cap purposes.
Dead Cap Hits
2023: $61M
2024: $46M

A March 2023 Trade

Denver takes on $40M of 2023 dead cap if they trade Wilson before his $20M option bonus is exercised.

A new (crazy) team would acquire cap hits of:
2023: $12M
2024: $25.4M
2025: $45.4M
2026: $48.4M
2027: $53.4M
2028: $54.4M

Or cash payouts of:
2023: $28M (guaranteed)
2024: $39M (guaranteed)
2025: $37M (guarantees in 2024)
2026: $40M
2027: $45M
2028: $50M

An Early March 2024 Release

$39M of base salary + $46M of bonus proration.
2024 Dead Cap Hit: $85M ($39M cash)

A Post June 1st Designation Release in 2024

$39M of base salary + $14M of bonus proration in 2024, $32M of 2025 bonus proration.
Dead Cap Hits
2024: $53M ($39M cash)
2025: $32M

A March 2024 Trade

Denver takes on $46M of 2023 dead cap if they trade Wilson before his $22M option bonus is exercised.

A new team would acquire cap hits of:
2024: $21.4M
2025: $41.4M
2026: $44.4M
2027: $49.4M
2028: $54.4M

Or cash payouts of:
2024: $39M (guaranteed)
2025: $37M (guarantees in 2024)
2026: $40M
2027: $45M
2028: $50M

Our Current Stance

This is a non-conversation. It’s possible we get to March 2025, and things are still as bad as they are today, and the Broncos convince the owner to pay him $37M cash to go away - but even then, even three Marches from now, we’re talking about $86.6M of dead cap.

A Post June 1st release in 2025 would mean dead cap hits of $55.4M in 2025, and another $31.2M in 2026.

The cleaner solution - the way this contract was actually meant to exist - is that the Broncos move on after the 2025 season, taking on a $31.2M dead cap hit, saving $27.2M of space, and continuing on with their lives.

If that feels like forever from now - it’s because it is.


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