NEXT CONTRACT: Saquon Barkley

Michael Ginnitti
Michael Ginnitti, Managing Editor & NFL/MLB ExpertApril 12, 2023
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Saquon Barkley’s now public decision to hold out indefinitely from his $10M franchise tag shouldn’t come as much of a surprise - and it comes with no penalty as well. As a technically unsigned player, Barkley (and all other franchise tagged players) are considered not under contract, and therefore have nothing to hold out from. They can report prior to Week 1 of the regular season, and still be eligible to earn their full franchise tag value. In other words - this could take awhile.

The play here is to eventually secure a multi-year extension, something Barkley and the Giants have been working on for the better part of a year to date. We’ll take a look at the figures involved here, including a projected contract that could solve this issue.

The Current Running Back Market

I was inclined to leave this blank for effect, but the truth here is that Barkley’s contract is important to how this position progresses over the course of the next few offseasons (albeit slight progression).

Christian McCaffrey signed his $16M per year extension almost exactly 3 full years ago. That’s how long the top average salary at this position has been held, and there’s no sign of it toppling in the coming months either.

Alvin Kamara ($15M) & Dalvin Cook’s ($12.6M) contracts were signed in September of 2020. Derrick Henry ($12.5M) signed in July of 2020. And Nick Chubb ($12.2M) signed in July of 2021. Ezekiel Elliott’s ($15M) recently extinguished contract stemmed from September of 2019.

To say things have been trending downward is an understatement.

RELATED: Highest Average Paid Running Backs

But the guarantees have improved, right? Those same Top 5 average salary names also still hold the Top 5 guarantee values as well. On average, 52% of the Top 10 active running back contracts are practically guaranteed.

So where does Barkley fall in all of this?

Saquon Barkley’s Value

Our latest valuation for Saquon Barkley (analyzing his 2021-2022 campaigns), places him at a $12.3M per year figure, or a 4 year, near $50M total value contract. If we take that 52% guaranteed number from above, we’re talking about $26M practically guaranteed, or 2 years, $26M practically speaking.

The easy way to contrast and compare here is to base our valuation against his current reality - two franchise tags. His 2023 tender comes in at $10,091,000. A second franchise tag is calculated as 120% of that number, or $12,109,200. These two tags combine for $22.2M.

So in theory, our fair market valuation for Barkley only represents a $4M guarantee increase over a simple two-tag plan.

Where does the $26M rank in terms of other top running backs?

1. McCaffrey, $38.1MM
2. Kamara, $33.8M
3. Cook, $28.1M
4. Henry, $25.5M
5. Chubb, $20M

Formulating a Projected Contract

We’re going to get a little creative here:
A) Because the Giants have shown that they’re not going to overload any single contract - including their QB1s.
B) Because it’s wrong to do a piece like this and just ignore the injury history and red flags that come with extending Saquon Barkley - despite his outstanding comeback season in 2022.

Here’s the compromise - a little less on the full guarantee, a little more on the total value, and even more available via active roster bonus & attainable - but not likely to be earned for cap purposes - incentives.

Here’s what a 4 year, $52M contract, $13M per year, $24M fully guaranteed at signing might look like.

The deal carries a $5.25M cap hit for the upcoming season, nearly cutting his current tag price in half - while paying out $14.25M cash - an increase of $4.25M. Barkley has a chance to make $26M over the next two seasons, aligning with the $13M per year AAV, as long as he's active for all 17 weeks each year. The Giants have been aggressively building in per game active bonuses even for players without Barkley's injury history - so it's a lock that they'll need to be factored in here.

Barring a cap conversion (potentially with the $6M fully guaranteed roster bonus due next March), the Giants will be able to walk away from this contract if needed after the 2024 season, with a $6M dead cap hit, freeing up $9.5M of space immediately.

Additionally we've factored in some common incentive offerings, all of which are not likely to be earned for cap purposes out of the gate. Barkley accounted for 1,650 yards from scrimmage last season, so we've started the yards package at 1,651 and forward. He accounted for just under 80% of the Giants offensive snaps last season (83% in his outstanding rookie year), so assuming he can hit 80%, and the Giants clinch a playoff spot - he can cash another $500,000 per year. In total there are $2M of available incentives annually on this deal - a huge number based on what we've seen in recent running back contracts, but something that I believe the top players at this position should be fighting for. If the guarantees and base pay isn't going to increase at the rate that the rest of the league is - these players should be compensated if and when they are great - and many of them are. Oh, and by the way - should Barkley play out all 4 seasons on this projected contract AND max out the $2M per year of incentives, it becomes a 4 year, $60M contract, or $15M per year. McCaffrey's number still stands alone.


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