#1 Overall NFL Picks & Recent QB Trends

Michael Ginnitti
Michael Ginnitti, Managing Editor & NFL/MLB ExpertApril 24, 2023
© USA TODAY Sports

As the 2023 NFL draft approaches we dive back into 5 years of #1 overall selections, including the respective rookie contract, and path each player as taken since.

RECENT #1 OVERALL PICKS

2023

TBD
4 years, $41.2, $26.9M signing bonus + 5th year option

  • First 6 picks should guarantee $30M+
  • First 11 picks should guarantee $20M+
  • First 22 picks should guarantee $15M+
  • 31st pick (forfeit) should guarantee just north of $12.5M
  • $2.5M drop off between Round 1 finish + Round 2 start

» 2023 Rookie Contract Projections

2022

Travon Walker (DE, JAX)
4 years, $37.3M; $24.3M signing bonus + 5th year option
Finished 2022 as the 90th graded edge defender according to PFF, posting 3.5 sacks, 49 tackles and a forced fumble in 15 games. He was handedly outplayed by #2 overall Aidan Hutchinson in Year 1, but it’s early.

» FULL DRAFT CLASS

2021

Trevor Lawrence (QB, JAX)
4 years, $36.7M; $24.1M signing bonus + 5th year option
2021 & 2022 were night and day scenarios for Lawrence, who improved from 32nd to 11th in QB grading according to PFF. He’ll become extension eligible for the first time after 2023, and all signs point to a brinks truck right now.

» FULL DRAFT CLASS

2020

Joe Burrow (QB, CIN)
4 years, $36.1M; $23.8M signing bonus + 5th year option
Got off to a slow start, but, outside of rings, 2021 & 2022 couldn’t have gone better for Burrow. He’s the back to back reigning #1 graded QB according to PFF, completing nearly 70% of his passes with a 104 rating in that span. He’s extension eligible as we speak, with a $50M+ per year, $200M+ guarantee in his immediate future.

» FULL DRAFT CLASS

2019

Kyler Murray (QB, ARI)
4 years, $35.6M; $23.5M signing bonus + 5th year option
Murray improved each of his first three seasons, banking a rookie of the year and two pro bowl nods during that time frame. He leveraged that build-up (and a mini offseason holdout) into a 5 year, $230.5M extension last July. He earned $30M last season (instead of $5.4M), and he’ll earn $39M for 2023 (instead of $29M).

» FULL DRAFT CLASS

2018

Baker Mayfield (QB, CLE)
4 years, $32.6M; $21.8M signing bonus + 5th year option
Baker’s still trying to figure it out, and might get a legitimate shot with the Buccaneers in 2023. But as far as QB value on rookie contracts go, this one didn’t hit. There are flashes of capabilities, but without the consistency required to manage an offense for 18+ weeks in any given season. Baker cashed in $48.4M across his first 5 seasons with Cleveland, Carolina, & LAR, and he’ll look to revive his career on a 1 year, $4M fully guaranteed contract with Tampa.

» FULL DRAFT CLASS

 

NFL #1 PICK HISTORY

  • 34 of the last 87 #1 picks have been QBs
  • Since 1990 only 8 #1 overall picks have been defensive players
  • It’s been 27 years since a WR has been taken #1 overall (Keyshawn Johnson, 1996)
  • It’s been 28 years since a RB has been taken #1 overall (Ki-Jana Carter, 1995)
  • This will (presumably) be Carolina’s 2nd #1 overall pick (2011, Cam Newton)
  • This would have been the Bears’ 3rd #1 overall pick and the first since 1947.
  • Matthew Stafford (2009) is the longest tenured #1 pick still active in the league
  • The 4 players drafted #1 overall after Stafford (Bradford, Newton, Luck, Fisher) are all presumably out of the league. It’ll be 5 straight if Jadeveon Clowney doesn’t garner a 2023 contract.
  • #1 overall picks since 2000 without a Pro Bowl nod: Courtney Brown, JaMarcus Russell, Sam Bradford, Baker Mayfield, Travon Walker

DRAFTED QBS SINCE 2018

With 3, maybe 4 QBs projected to be taken in the first round this Thurdsay, we'll look back at where QBs have been selected since 2018, and which are still vying for starting roles in the league.

2018 Quarterbacks (13)

ROUND BREAKDOWN: 1:5, 2:0, 3:1, 4:1, 5:1, 6:2, 7:3

  • Starters: 2 (Allen, Lamar)
  • Competing: 2 (Baker, Darnold)
  • Backups: 3 (Rudolph, White, Woodside)
  • Out: 6

2019 Quarterbacks (11)

ROUND BREAKDOWN: 1:3, 2:1, 3:1, 4:2, 5:2, 6:2, 7:0

  • Starters: 2 (Murray, Jones)
  • Competing: 1 (Minshew)
  • Backups: 5 (Lock, Grier, Stidham, Stick, McSorley)
  • Out: 3

2020 Quarterbacks (12)

ROUND BREAKDOWN: 1:4, 2:1, 3:0, 4:2, 5:1, 6:1, 7:3

  • Starters: 5 (Burrow, Tua, Herbert, Love, Hurts)
  • Competing: 0
  • Backups: 3 (Eason, Luton, Fromm)
  • Out: 4

2021 Quarterbacks (10)

ROUND BREAKDOWN: 1:5, 2:1, 3:2, 4:1, 5:0, 6:1, 7:0

  • Starters: 3 (Lawrence, Fields, M. Jones)
  • Competing: 3 (Trask, Mills, Ehlinger)
  • Backups: 4 (Lance, Wilson, Mond, Book)
  • Out: 0

2022 Quarterbacks (9)

ROUND BREAKDOWN: 1:1, 2:0, 3:3, 4:1, 5:1, 6:0, 7:3

Starters: 4 (Pickett, Ridder, Howell, Purdy)

Competing: 0

Backups: 5 (Willis, Corral, Zappe, Oladukun, Thompson)

Out: 0


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