Analyzing the 2020 5th-Year Option Decisions

Michael Ginnitti
Michael Ginnitti, Managing Editor & NFL/MLB ExpertMay 02, 2023
© USA TODAY Sports

The 5th-Year option deadline has now come and gone, giving us the most declined salaries that the league has ever seen. This can be attributed to a few things: A few unfortunate situations, a few unfortunate injuries, and a CBA change that fully guarantees the salary the instant that the option is exercised.

Exercised Options: 12
Declined Options: 15
Bypassed with Extension: 1
Not Available: 4

Related: Track all 5th-year option decisions

EXERCISED OPTIONS

#1 Joe Burrow (QB, CIN)

2024 Salary: $29,504,000
Burrow’s option exercise was a mere formality as he and the Bengals continue to inch closer to his offseason mega-extension. But the $29.504M will now be factored into his next deal, totaling $35M of salary from this and next season that will be added to his new money contract. With recent paydays for Jalen Hurts & Lamar Jackson, Burrow is now a $53M player in our system.

#4 Andrew Thomas (OT, NYG)

2024 Salary: $14,175,000
Thomas has become one of the best offensive linemen in the game, and it stands to reason that the Giants will lock him up long term before the summer is out. He’s a near $22M per year player in our system to date. With the option exercised, he’s now guaranteed $19.1M over the next two seasons.

#5 Tua Tagovailoa (QB, MIA)

2024 Salary: $23,171,000
Despite an unfortunate run of recent head injuries, the Dolphins are standing by their QB, showing enough loyalty to fully guarantee $27.8M across this and next season. If he can stay healthy, there’s no question he should be inline for a near top of the market extension ($45M+ per year).

#6 Justin Herbert (QB, LAC)

2024 Salary: $29,504,000
Like Burrow, the Chargers are just buying themselves more time here as they work through negotiations on something much much bigger. In the interim, Herbert is now guaranteed $33.7M across this and next season, and he carries a $50M valuation into May.

#7 Derrick Brown (DT, CAR)

2024 Salary: $11,665,000
The first and one of only two defensive players to have his 5th-year option exercised this offseason, Brown doesn’t have the production to be considered for the deals that Jeffery Simmons or even Daron Payne scored this spring, but Jonathan Allen’s $18M per year could be about right.

#10 Jedrick Wills (OT, CLE)

2024 Salary: $14,175,000
Despite a bit of a step back in play, Wills gets the vote of confidence through the 2024 season, now guaranteed $17.4M across this and next year. D.J. Humphries contractual path could be one to watch here for Wills going forward.

#13 Tristan Wirfs (OT, TB)

2024 Salary: $18,244,000
After 3 seasons at right tackle, Wirfs is expected to move over to the left side for the 2023 campaign. He’s now guaranteed $21M over the next two seasons, carrying a near $25M per year valuation in our system.

#15 Jerry Jeudy (WR, DEN)

2024 Salary: $12,987,000
Despite trade rumors, the Broncos locked in Jeudy through the 2024 season at what is now $15.5M fully guaranteed. There’s no question that Jeudy hasn’t risen to the level that many thought he could have just yet, but with lots of new in Denver this season, there’s now time to improve upon that.

#16 A.J. Terrell (CB, ATL)

2024: $12,344,000
After an elite 2021 campaign, Terrell fell back down to earth a bit in 2022, but not nearly enough to stop the Falcons from locking him into $14.9M fully guaranteed across the next two seasons. He carries a $20M valuation in our system to date.

#17 CeeDee Lamb (WR, DAL)

2024 Salary: $17,991,000
After a slow start to his career, Lamb has made this decision a complete no-brainer for Dallas of late. He’s now fully guaranteed $20.5M over the next two seasons, but should be staring down a long-term extension at or around $25M per year in the coming weeks.

#22 Justin Jefferson (WR, MIN)

2024 Salary: $19,743,000
Jefferson’s answered every bell, and it’s a little strange that we’re hearing zero discussion about a long-term extension in the works, but that’s a when not an if, and it will likely reach historic heights. For now, the #22 overall pick is guaranteed $22.1M across this and next season, with a near $27M valuation under his belt.

#25 Brandon Aiyuk (WR, SF)

2024 Salary: $14,124,000
For the most part, Aiyuk’s first three seasons have been consistently above average, capping off 2022 with his most productive season yet. His option exercise means $16.4M fully guaranteed across this and next season, and the 25 year old holds an $18M valuation for a long term deal in our system.

DECLINED OPTIONS

#2 Chase Young (DE, WAS)

Declined Salary: $17,452,000
Young becomes the first #2 overall pick to have his 5th-year option declined since the Bears said no to QB Mitchell Trubisky in 2020. He’ll play out a fully guaranteed $5.3M salary, with either free agency, or a projected $21M franchise tag in his future.

#8 Isaiah Simmons (LB, ARI)

Declined Salary: $12,722,000
Simmons was drafted to be a versatile defender, and for the most part - he’s been just that. Productivity wise, things have been fairly average, and the Cardinals are in a bit of a valley right now in terms of their team building (especially with new regimes in the front office and on the sideline). It was just better business to say no here right now. A projected $23M franchise tag already seems unlikely as well.

#9 C.J. Henderson (CB, CAR)

Declined Salary: $11,514,000
The Jaguars traded Henderson to the Panthers early in the 2021 season, and he’s been a solid but fairly average player ever since. He projects to fill in a depth role for Carolina on a fully guaranteed $3.4M salary this upcoming season, but free agency is likely thereafter.

#11 Mekhi Becton (OT, NYJ)

Declined Salary: $13,565,000
This is simply a matter of un-availability. Becton has 1 game under his belt in the past two seasons thanks to a surgically repaired knee. He’ll be ready for OTAs this offseason, and still projects as the Week 1 starting Right Tackle, so there’s time for him to resurrect his value and make next March a little more complicated for the Jets. An offensive lineman franchise tag projects to around $21M currently.

#14 Javon Kinlaw (DT, SF)

Declined Salary: $10,455,000
The writing was on the wall with this one when San Fran shocked us all with a massive free agency deal for Javon Hargrave. Factor in 10 games played across the past two seasons and an additional $10.4M guarantee was out of the question. He’ll play out a fully guaranteed $2.7M salary in 2023, with free agency likely thereafter.

#18 Austin Jackson (OT, MIA)

Declined Salary: $14,175,000
Jackson still projects to be Miami’s Week 1 starting right tackle, so it’s not exactly a broken relationship here. But with 3 games played in 2022, the Dolphins are protecting themselves here from overpaying for a player they have aspirations to replace anyway.

#20 K’Lavon Chaisson (OLB, JAX)

Declined Salary: $12,141,000
The production just hasn’t been there, and with only 9 games played in 2022, this wasn’t a difficult option for the Jags. Oh, and his replacement was the #1 overall pick in 2021.

#21 Jalen Reagor (WR, MIN)

Declined Salary: $12,987,000
Reagor was traded to Minnesota before the start of the 2022 regular season. He posted 8 catches for 104 yards in 17 games. He’ll earn $2.4M in 2023, with free agency available thereafter.

#23 Kenneth Murray (LB, LAC)

Declined Salary: $11,727,000
Murray’s playing time was greatly reduced in 2022 (about 20% less than his rookie season), though he still projects to start for the Chargers in 2023. LA will see out his $2.3M salary and play out the options from there.

#24 Cesar Ruiz (G/C, NO)

Declined Salary: $14,175,000
The #24 overall pick never really found his footing through three seasons, despite playing almost every offensive snap over the course of the past two years. He projects to be the Week 1 starting right Guard, so there’s time to build up value as free agency nears.

#27 Jordyn Brooks (LB, SEA)

Declined Salary: $12,722,000
Brooks is the type of player that fills up a stat sheet, passes most of the eye tests, then gets crushed by advanced analytics on a Monday morning. With that said, had he not suffered an ACL injury late in 2022, there’s a very good chance this decline would have been an exercise. Seattle will hedge its bets here, knowing they may need to slap a projected $23M tag on Brooks to keep him off the open market next March.

#28 Patrick Queen (LB, BAL)

Declined Salary: $12,722,000
I guess when you acquire a counterpart ILB and then pay him the largest contract in position history, your chance of getting a guaranteed x10 raise in 2024 is greatly reduced. Queen has already been rumored in trade talks, and a 1 year, $2.2M contract seems like pretty good value for the receiving team here.

#30 Noah Igbinoghene (CB, MIA)

Declined Salary: $13,202,000
The #30 overall pick has 1 career interception in 32 games played (only 16 across the past two seasons). He enters the 2023 offseason as a projected 3rd stringer for the Dolphins, who may just buy out his $2.1M salary to move on this summer.

#32 Clyde Edwards-Helaire (RB, KC)

Declined Salary: $5,461,000
You can’t say the Chiefs didn’t try here. CEH was given opportunities all over the field to find a rhythm and pattern in their offense, and it just wasn’t a fit. He’s now slipped to 3rd on the depth chart behind Isiah Pachecho and Jerick McKinnon, so a 1 year, $2M play out with free agency looming in March seems the obvious path here. Not ruling out a trade here either.

BYPASSED WITH EXTENSION

#26 Jordan Love (QB, GB)

Bypassed Salary: $20,272,000
With Aaron Rodgers gone, the decision to exercise or decline Love’s $20M 2024 salary was a hot topic of conversation for weeks. Green Bay chose neither. Love gets a restructured extension that guarantees him $13.5M (most likely all in 2023), offering he and Green Bay a more financially sensible path to see if there’s a long-term fit here through the 2024 season. Based on initial reports, it appears as though Love’s compensation across 2023-2024 can max out at $25M.

UNAVAILABLE

#3 Jeff Okudah (CB, ATL)

Bypassed Salary: $11,514,000
Okudah wasn’t going to see his option exercised no matter how this offseason played out, but that became a non-possibility once he agreed to a restructured contract per his trade to Atlanta. The Lions retained a portion of his 4th year salary, nullifying his ability to remain eligible for a 5th year option. The Falcons now get a 1 year, $3.6M look at him in their revamped defense.

#12 Henry Ruggs (WR)

Waived by the Raiders in November of 2021.

#19 Damon Arnette (CB)

Waived by the Raiders in November of 2021.

#29 Isaiah Wilson (OT)

Waived by the Titans in March of 2021.

#31 Jeff Gladney (CB)

Waived by the Vikings in August of 2021


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