NFL Question Mark Contracts

Michael Ginnitti
Michael Ginnitti, Managing Editor & NFL/MLB ExpertJune 02, 2023
© USA TODAY Sports

With most NFL rosters now boasting the maximum 90 players, the time to start considering the road to 53 for 2023, and which players might be "showcasing" themselves for a potential trip to free agency or the trade block next March is here. We've identified a contract from each NFL roster that carries some form of question mark hanging over it.

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Kyler Murray (QB, 25)

Total Contract: 7 years, $265,685,000
Practical Guarantee: $159,797,000
Contract Remaining: 6 years, $235,685,000
Guarantee Remaining: $129,797,000

Murray's injury, combined with a complete overhaul of the front office and coaching staff, appears to have converted the Cardinals into a mini blow-it-up phase - despite $130M of guarantee remaining on their QB1's contract. New GM Monti Ossenfort has plenty of work to do to turn the corner on this blockbuster contract. Murray could have been playing out the 5th year option on his rookie contract in 2023.

Jonnu Smith (TE, 27)

Total Contract: 4 years, $50,000,000
Practical Guarantee: $31,250,000
Contract Remaining: 2 years, $15,000,000
Guarantee Remaining: $8,500,000

The good news for Atlanta? New England paid off the overpay part of this contract across the past two seasons, leaving the Falcons with 1 year, $8.5M contract for practical purposes. He'll pair with TE phenom Kyle Pitts this year for what should be a much improved Atlanta roster.

Roquan Smith (LB, 26)

Total Contract: 5 years, $100,000,000
Practical Guarantee: $60,000,000
Contract Remaining: 5 years, $100,000,000
Guarantee Remaining: $60,000,000

After opting against paying C.J. Mosley a top of the market off-ball linebacker contract just a few years back, Baltimore pivoted by acquiring, then extending Roquan Smith this winter. He's an elite player, but this is increasingly become a position that teams aren't choosing to pay top dollar for.

Von Miller (EDGE, 34)

Total Contract: 6 years, $120,000,000
Practical Guarantee: $51,435,000
Contract Remaining: 5 years, $100,000,000
Guarantee Remaining: $31,790,000

The breadwinner contract of 2022 free agency, Miller played just 11 weeks for the Bills last season, and his knee injury is expected to sideline him through most of the summer - potentially even longer. The 34-year-old is fully guaranteed through the next year and half, but it's not inconceivable to worry that Miller won't ever return to even above average form from here out.

Miles Sanders (RB, 26)

Total Contract: 4 years, $25,400,000
Practical Guarantee: $13,000,000
Contract Remaining: 4 years, $25,400,000
Guarantee Remaining: $13,000,000

Sanders' $25M total value contract is $7M more than any other running back received this past free agent season, while the $13M fully guaranteed sits $2M above these deals (Montgomery, $11M). The 26-year-old should be able to produce at a high level for the next two seasons, and quite frankly, every pending or prospective free agent running back is relying on it.

Tremaine Edmunds (LB, 25)

Total Contract: 4 years, $72,000,000
Practical Guarantee: $50,000,000
Contract Remaining: 4 years, $72,000,000
Guarantee Remaining: $50,000,000

The Bills knew they were likely going to get outpriced on Edmunds' this free agency, but I'm not sure anyone saw $50M fully guaranteed coming. Age (25) is very much on his side here, as is a Chicago team looking for leadership and a core to build around on the defensive side of the ball. There's reason to believe this will be a great fit for the next 3+ years, but anytime an off-ball linebacker contract like this comes in, there's risk involved.

La'el Collins (RT, 29)

Total Contract: 3 years, $21,000,000
Practical Guarantee: $5,000,000
Contract Remaining: 2 years, $14,000,000
Guarantee Remaining: $0

Collins latched on last March but suffered a torn ACL and MCL around Christmas, torpedoing any kind of value that the Bengals were hoping to gain out of this contract. With no future guarantee remaining, there's a chance Cincinnati opts to move on once Collins can pass a physical.

Deshaun Watson (QB, 27)

Total Contract: 5 years, $230,000,000
Practical Guarantee: $230,000,000
Contract Remaining: 4 years, $184,000,000
Guarantee Remaining: $184,000,000

Obviously. The only way this contract even begins to hold up is with a Super Bowl parade in Cleveland, and even that won't soften the anger that 31 other franchises currently have with how last March went down.

Michael Gallup (WR, 27)

Total Contract: 5 years, $57,500,000
Practical Guarantee: $27,000,000
Contract Remaining: 4 years, $44,700,000
Guarantee Remaining: $15,000,000

Gallup's return to Dallas on just $27M fully guaranteed was a bit of a shocker, but it's likely the Cowboys had knowledge that he wasn't going to be the same player in return from a torn ACL. Dallas can move off of this 4 year contract after 2023 with no future salary to be paid out.

Russell Wilson (QB, 34)

Total Contract: 7 years, $296,000,000
Practical Guarantee: $161,000,000
Contract Remaining: 6 years, $239,000,000
Guarantee Remaining: $104,000,000

Mulligan? Year 1 of the Russ + Broncos experiment included $57M cash, and not a lot of success on the field. Sean Payton is poised to change that over the course of the next three seasons, when Wilson will earn a fully guaranteed $104M.

Romeo Okwara (DE, 27)

Total Contract: 3 years, $37,000,000
Practical Guarantee: $25,000,000
Contract Remaining: 1 year, $2,500,000
Guarantee Remaining: $0

The long-time Lion hasn't been able to stay healthy since 2020, sinking any potential value built into the first 2 years, $26M of his most recent extension. Okwara accepted a paycut down to just $2.5M for 2023 in order to stick around, but he'll be headed for free agency next March.

David Bakhtiari (LT, 31)

Total Contract: 5 years, $108,000,000
Practical Guarantee: $61,500,000
Contract Remaining: 2 years, $38,900,000
Guarantee Remaining: $0

Bakhtiari is 2 years removed from being graded one of the best offensive lineman in all of football, so to look at this contract as a failure wouldn't be doing it justice. With that said, he's seen action in only 24 games across the last three seasons, despite earning north of $69M in that period of time. Green Bay converted most of his 2023 salary into signing bonus already, so he'll be on Jordan Love's blindside in 2023, but a $40.4M cap hit in 2024 puts everything in question from here out.

C.J. Stroud (QB, 21)

Total Contract: 4 years, $36,279,243
Practical Guarantee: $36,279,243
Contract Remaining: 4 years, $36,279,243
Guarantee Remaining: $36,279,243

The reality here is that the Texans don't have enough viable multi-year contracts to really do any sort of financial damage this year. Their two largest contracts ($75M for LT Tunsil, $36M for G Mason) were both intelligent deals with the knowledge that a rookie QB1 was about to take over. Stroud won't have to do more than show he can handle the speed of the NFL game in 2023, and if he does - look for Houston to go wild in free agency over the next two seasons.

Matt Gay (K, 29)

Total Contract: 4 years, $22,500,000
Practical Guarantee: $13,000,000
Contract Remaining: 4 years, $22,500,000
Guarantee Remaining: $13,000,000

Matt Gay signed a larger free agent contract than every running back not named Miles Sanders this offseason. Indy is carrying a rookie deal QB1, a rookie deal RB1, and a few rookie deal WRs into 2023, so overspending on a proven kicker (93%+ field goals each of the past two seasons) might end up being good business, despite what can be considered an eye-test overpay from the get go.

Cam Robinson (OT, 27)

Total Contract: 3 years, $54,000,000
Practical Guarantee: $33,000,000
Contract Remaining: 2 years, $35,000,000
Guarantee Remaining: $0

This was supposed to a nice story. Former high draft pick plays out a franchise tag, shows enough to warrant a multi-year extension out of a 2nd franchise tag, and becomes a formidble left tackle for one of the great young QBs in the game for years to come. A Spring PED suspension has derailed that line of thinking, at least temporarily. It also voided the guarantee on his $16M salary for 2023. Robinson will forfeit $933,000 per suspended game this season, and he'll be forced to pay back $277,777 per game missed in earned signing bonus due to the violation.

Jawaan Taylor (OT, 25)

Total Contract: 4 years, $80,000,000
Practical Guarantee: $60,000,000
Contract Remaining: 4 years, $80,000,000
Guarantee Remaining: $60,000,000

To be frank here, it was extremely difficult to find a contract on this Chiefs roster that "scared us". Winning does a lot for a franchise, but providing leverage to sign fair or under-market contracts is definitely one of the bigger perks. If Taylor signed a 3 year, $60M practical deal with the knowledge that he would be a Right Tackle in KC - then he's done extremely well for himself. But if there's even a chance that after 2023, he converts over to cover Patrick Mahomes' blindside, then this contract will be underserving his role. What a nice problem for the Chiefs to have.

Chandler Jones (DE, 33)

Total Contract: 3 years, $51,000,000
Practical Guarantee: $32,000,000
Contract Remaining: 2 years, $34,000,000
Guarantee Remaining: $16,000,000

The Raiders had a plethora of needs last March, but bookending Maxx Crosby with a 32+ year old edge rusher at $34M guaranteed probably shouldn't have been as high on the list as it appeared to be. Jones had a fine year, just not one that matches the need + the contract. He's fully guaranteed through 2023, with a clear out available thereafter.

J.C. Jackson (CB, 27)

Total Contract: 5 years, $82,500,000
Practical Guarantee: $40,000,000
Contract Remaining: 4 years, $54.500,000
Guarantee Remaining: $12,000,000

Always reluctant to question a contract based on injury, but when one of the largest total value free agent contracts of the spring falls flat on its face immediately, it generates cause for concern (Jackson's deal was 2nd only to Von Miller, who also finds himself on this list). As this deal was slightly front-loaded, the Chargers now get Jackson on 2 years, $26M guaranteed through 2025 to try to resurrect his role and stature on LA's defense.

Joseph Noteboom (OT, 27)

Total Contract: 3 years, $40,000,000
Practical Guarantee: $25,000,000
Contract Remaining: 2 years, $28,500,000
Guarantee Remaining: $13,500,000

Replacing Andrew Whitworth was never going to be easy, and a heck of a lot of things went wrong for the Rams last season, but it doesn't appear as though Noteboom is going to be the long term answer for LAR at left tackle, despite $25M fully guaranteed through 2023. The Rams will have until the 5th league day of 2024 to make a decision on this contract going forward.

Jason Sanders (K, 27)

Total Contract: 6 years, $22,920,000
Practical Guarantee: $7,520,000
Contract Remaining: 4 years, $15,200,000

Guarantee Remaining: $0

The Dolphins have signed and acquired a LOT of contracts over the past two offseasons, so to have their biggest question mark deal come down to the kicking position is a testament to how well the recent rebuild has gone to date. Sanders' FG% has been in the 70s the past two seasons, and with all of the guarantees on this contract now expired, it's safe to say this is a bubble deal going forward.

Dalvin Cook (RB, 27)

Total Contract: 6 years, $64,284,650
Practical Guarantee: $28,125,000
Contract Remaining: 3 years, $37,000,000
Guarantee Remaining: $2,000,000

Cook might be released out of this contract by the time you're reading this, but for now, $2M of his $11M compensation in 2023 is fully guaranteed with no future early bonuses or guarantees remaining through 2025. It might be Alexander Mattison time in Minnesota.

Hunter Henry (TE, 28)

Total Contract: 3 years, $37,500,000
Practical Guarantee: $25,000,000
Contract Remaining: 1 year, $10,500,000
Guarantee Remaining: $0

After a really strong first campaign in New England for the 2021 season (50 catches, 600 yards, 9 TDs), Henry's production fell off of a cliff in 2022, putting his $10.5M owed for 2023 in question. The Patriots most likely see this out, letting Henry walk back into free agency next March just before he hits age 30.

Andrus Peat (G, 29)

Total Contract: 5 years, $57,500,000
Practical Guarantee: $33,850,000
Contract Remaining: 1 year, $5,500,000
Guarantee Remaining: $0

Almost nothing has gone well for Peat within this 5 year contract. So much so, he and the Saints agreed to lop off the final year of the contract, and lower his 2023 compensation down to $5.5M. He'll hit the open market next March outside of a miraculous turn around in front of Derek Carr this season.

Daniel Jones (QB, 26)

Total Contract: 4 years, $160,000,000
Practical Guarantee: $92,000,000
Contract Remaining: 4 years, $160,000,000
Guarantee Remaining: $92,000,000

While things are trending upward for the Giants, there are still plenty of unknowns surrounding both Jones, and the roster as a whole. One thing that's for certain? Daniel Jones will see a minimum of $81M over the next 2 seasons, for better or for worse.

Laken Tomlinson (G, 31)

Total Contract: 3 years, $40,000,000
Practical Guarantee: $23,900,000
Contract Remaining: 2 years, $26,100,000
Guarantee Remaining: $10,000,000

Year 1 of a 3 year deal in New York didn't go as planned, but with $10M fully guaranteed for 2023, he'll get the opportunity to rebound with Aaron Rodgers at the helm.Tomlinson's cap hit soars to $18.88M in 2024, so it's likely a make or break year.

Jordan Mailata (LT, 26)

Total Contract: 5 years, $69,650,000
Practical Guarantee: $40,850,000
Contract Remaining: 3 years, $50,800,000
Guarantee Remaining: $15,000,000

The Eagles contract to production ratio across the board is nearly flawless right now. Mailata finds himself here due to a slight regression in 2023 after back to back outstanding campaigns. Any sort of bounce back in the upcoming season will more than justify at least two more years on this deal.

Chris Boswell (K, 32)

Total Contract: 5 years, $23,325,000
Practical Guarantee: $12,500,000
Contract Remaining: 4 years, $13,500,000
Guarantee Remaining: $0

After three straight seasons with a 90% or better field goal hit rate, Boswell's 2022 figure dropped to under 70%, despite reeling in nearly $10M cash last season. His salaries flatten out from here, including $4M for 2023, and no early guarantees thereafter.

Trey Lance (QB, 23)

Total Contract: 4 years, $34,105,275
Practical Guarantee: $34,105,275
Contract Remaining: 2 years, $9,071,194
Guarantee Remaining: $9,071,194

$9M guaranteed remaining for a potential franchise quarterback isn't usually cause for concern, but with so much uncertainty at the most important position in football, it's hard not put Lance's status in question. If Brock Purdy can regain and hold the starting gig again in 2023, look for Lance to loudly hit the trade block next March, just before his 5th year option decision will need to be made.

Jamal Adams (S, 27)

Total Contract: 5 years, $80,440,000
Practical Guarantee: $38,000,000
Contract Remaining: 3 years, $45,000,000
Guarantee Remaining: $2,560,000

Two first round picks, a third round pick, and $39M cash. That's what the Seahawks have given up for 25 Jamal Adams games over the past 3 seasons. Unfortunately his recovery from recent injury currently comes with no timeline for return, so Seattle is at risk of handing out another $11M cash this season with very little production in return. Adams' contract offers a clear out after 2023, with $14.2M of dead cap against a $23.6M cap hit.

Russell Gage (WR, 27)

Total Contract: 3 years, $30,000,000
Practical Guarantee: $20,000,000
Contract Remaining: 2 years, $17,000,000
Guarantee Remaining: $7,000,000

The Buccaneers have trimmed most of their contractual fat this offseason, leaving behind a few potential rebound scenarios (Ryan Jensen, Shaq Barrett). Gage has been productive for the Bucs, but as a clearcut #3 option in the passing game, $20M guaranteed seems more than a team should be willing to bite off.

Ryan Tannehill (QB, 34)

Total Contract: 4 years, $118,000,000
Practical Guarantee: $91,000,000
Contract Remaining: 1 years, $27,000,000
Guarantee Remaining: $0

The Titans have used back to back draft classes to try to find Ryan Tannehill's successor, but neither Malik Willis or Will Levis appear ready to take on that role just yet. Tannehill likely plays out the final year of his deal in Tennessee, though a late summer or deadline trade wouldn't be too crazy to imagine either.

Logan Thomas (TE, 31)

Total Contract: 4 years, $26,475,000
Practical Guarantee: $10,300,000
Contract Remaining: 2 years, $13,565,000
Guarantee Remaining: $0

Injury, recovery, & a lack of adequate QB play around him have factored into very little production from 2 years, $13M of Thomas' contract. It appears Washington will give him a 1 year, $7M chance to rebound in 2023, with a very clear out thereafter ($1.75M of 2024 dead cap).

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