Projecting 2023 NBA Contract Guarantees

Keith Smith
Keith Smith, Resident NBA ExpertJune 27, 2023
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Just like we did with 2023 player and team options, we’re going to take a shot at projecting what happens with players who have contract guarantee dates. Unlike options, which all have to be decided upon by June 29 at the latest, contract guarantees can stretch out all the way until the league-wide guarantee date of January 10, 2024.

Since this focus here is to tie these projections to the start of NBA free agency on June 30, we’re going to narrow our focus to those contracts that have a guarantee date of mid-July at the latest. If any of the deals we’re going to project have a later guarantee date, we’ll call out their reason for inclusion.

Atlanta Hawks

Bruno Fernando - $2,581,522 – fully guaranteed 6/29

Fernando will probably have his deal guaranteed. It’s only slightly above the minimum and he’s a solid fifth big for the Hawks.

Tyrese Martin - $1,719,864 – fully guaranteed 7/21

Martin didn’t show much in his rookie season, but he’s worth keeping around for some wing depth. He’s also a nice tax-variance guy to have on roster, since he was drafted by Atlanta.

Garrison Mathews - $2,000,000 – fully guaranteed 6/29

Mathews can really shoot. For $2 million, he’s a great depth piece on the wing. The challenge is that Atlanta has a million wings already, and they are looking to get under the tax. This one is 50-50, but we’ll guess Mathews stays for now.

Boston Celtics

No contracts with June or July guarantee dates

Brooklyn Nets

Royce O’Neale - $9,500,000 – fully guaranteed 7/10

This one is very easy. O’Neale’s contract is already guaranteed for $2.5 million. He’s also pretty good and valuable for the Nets as a rotation guy or trade asset. He’s staying.

Edmond Sumner - $2,239,943 – fully guaranteed 7/5

Sumner has made it all the way back from a torn ACL. Pending what Brooklyn’s plans are in the backcourt, he could stick around for another season. If the Nets add a couple of guards, Sumner could go. We’ll guess he stays for now.

Charlotte Hornets

No contracts with June or July guarantee dates

Chicago Bulls

Marko Simonovic - $1,836,096 – fully guaranteed 7/7

Simonovic hasn’t had any sort of impact in the NBA, playing on 16 games in two seasons. But he’s been solid enough in the G League. He’ll probably stick in Chicago, unless the Bulls end up dancing around the luxury tax.

Cleveland Cavaliers

Cedi Osman - $6,718,842 – fully guaranteed 6/29

Osman is a part of the Cavs rotation, for at least one more season. He’ll be back in Cleveland.

Dallas Mavericks

Reggie Bullock - $10,489,600 – fully guaranteed 6/28

Bullock’s contract is more than half-guaranteed already. He’s also a regular rotation player for the Mavs. He’ll be back.

Denver Nuggets

No contracts with June or July guarantee dates

Detroit Pistons

No contracts with June or July guarantee dates

Golden State Warriors

No contracts with June or July guarantee dates

Houston Rockets

Daishen Nix - $1,836,096 – fully guaranteed 6/29

Nix is probably going to get caught up in the Rockets desire to create over $60 million in cap space. In addition, the Rockets roster is starting to get stuffed. That’ll likely see Nix waived.

Indiana Pacers

No contracts with June or July guarantee dates

LA Clippers

Brandon Boston Jr. - $1,839,096 – fully guaranteed 6/30

Boston has shown enough in his first two years that he’ll be back with the Clippers.

Eric Gordon - $20,917,902 – fully guaranteed 6/28

Nearly $21 million for Gordon is a lot. But it’s just cash for the Clippers. And that $20.9 million is a nice piece of salary-matching in a future trade. LA will guarantee Gordon.

Jason Preston - $1,839,096 – fully guaranteed 7/7

Preston’s first two years have been spent injured, followed by a season mostly in the G League. But Preston did show a lot in the G League. He’ll be back, unless the Clippers need a roster spot.

Los Angeles Lakers

Mo Bamba - $10,300,000 – fully guaranteed 6/29

The Lakers are likely to add a bunch of salary by re-signing some of their league-high 10 free agents. Keeping Bamba at $10.3 million would likely put Los Angeles in the luxury tax. Because of that, look for him to be waived, but potentially re-signed on a smaller contract.

Jarred Vanderbilt - $4,698,000 – fully guaranteed 6/30

Vanderbilt’s contract is already partially guaranteed and will become fully guaranteed by the end of June. He’s been a starter and key rotation player since the Lakers acquired him at the trade deadline. He’s not going anywhere.

Memphis Grizzlies

No contracts with June or July guarantee dates

Miami Heat

Haywood Highsmith - $1,902,137 – fully guaranteed 7/15

The Heat will guarantee Highsmith. He’s been a rotation player at times and Miami can use all the value contracts they can get on an increasingly expensive roster.

Milwaukee Bucks

No contracts with June or July guarantee dates

Minnesota Timberwolves

Jordan McLaughlin - $2,320,000 – fully guaranteed 6/30

McLaughlin has regularly been the Wolves backup point guard. Considering his deal is only just above the minimum, he’ll be back in Minnesota.

Taurean Prince - $7,455,000 – fully guaranteed 6/28

Prince has been rotation regular for Minnesota. The Wolves will bring him back, because he could be nice piece of salary-matching in a trade, if nothing else.

New Orleans Pelicans

Garrett Temple - $5,401,000 – fully guaranteed 6/30

This one is pending how much the Pelicans want to stay out of the luxury tax. If New Orleans wants to get out of the tax early, they’ll waive Temple. If they think they can make a trade later to avoid the tax, they’ll keep him. Or, if the Pels are ok paying the tax, they’ll keep Temple on the books and see if he can be put in a bigger trade down the line.

New York Knicks

Jericho Sims - $1,927,896 - $1.2 million guaranteed 7/6

Sims has done well as a third center and occasional spot starter for the Knicks. He’ll have his deal step up from $600,000 guaranteed to $1.2 million, and then eventually to fully guaranteed in mid-August.

Oklahoma City Thunder

Jeremiah Robinson-Earl - $1,900,000 – fully guaranteed 6/30

After a promising rookie season, Robinson-Earl backslid a bit in his sophomore season. His main issue was with injuries. There’s still more than enough talent there for the Thunder to bring him back on such a small salary.

Orlando Magic

Bol Bol - $2,200,000 – fully guaranteed 6/30

Bol’s promising start eventually came back to earth last season, but he’s still a bargain on this contract. The Magic will guarantee his salary.

Markelle Fultz - $17,000,000 – fully guaranteed 6/30

Fultz has bounced back from his torn ACL and looks really good again. He’ll have his deal fully guaranteed by Orlando.

Gary Harris - $13,000,000 – fully guaranteed 6/30

Harris is coming off a good season that most missed because Orlando wasn’t a good team last year. The Magic are going to keep Harris, because he’s valuable as a trade asset, if nothing else. But they like him plenty as a player, as well.

Jonathan Isaac - $17,400,000 – fully guaranteed 1/10

Isaac’s inclusion here is less about his guarantee date and more about Orlando making a decision before free agency opens. The Magic could waive Isaac and be on the hook for $7.6 million. If they do that, they’re likely loading up on cap space to make a run at a major player. If Isaac is still with Orlando, he’ll probably stick until at least the trade deadline. We’re betting on the latter being the case.

Philadelphia 76ers

De’Anthony Melton - $8,000,000 – fully guaranteed 7/3

Melton is already guaranteed to get $1.5 million, but as a key rotation player for the Sixers, he’ll be getting the full amount.

Phoenix Suns

Jordan Goodwin - $1,927,896 – $963,948 guaranteed 8/1

Goodwin was added to the Bradley Beal trade, because the Suns need some depth. Even if it happens later in the offseason, Goodwin will see his guaranteed amount increase in August and eventually to full in January.

Cameron Payne - $6,500,000 – fully guaranteed 6/29

Payne may well be the Suns starting point guard at this moment. Considering he’s already guaranteed $2 million, he’ll see his deal become fully guarantee. At that point, Payne’s deal is at least a nice piece of salary-matching in another trade for the Suns.

Portland Trail Blazers

Jabari Walker - $1,719,864 – fully guaranteed 7/20

Walker already has $400,000 of his deal guaranteed, but he showed enough to stick in Portland for the season.

Trendon Watford - $1,836,096 – fully guaranteed 6/30

Watford became a key rotation contributor for the Blazers last year. He’s not going anywhere.

Jeenathan Williams - $1,719,864 – fully guaranteed 8/1

Williams’ status probably depends on what else happens with Portland’s roster. If they need another wing, he’ll stay. If the roster is crowded, he could be waived. Summer League is a chance for him to show he deserves to stick.

Sacramento Kings

P.J. Dozier - $2,413,304 – fully guaranteed 7/10

The Kings swerve at the draft to salary-dump Richaun Holmes to create cap space means Dozier probably gets caught up in the swirl and waived. But don’t rule out a return to Sacramento after they do their other offseason work.

San Antonio Spurs

No contracts with June or July guarantee dates

Toronto Raptors

Joe Wieskamp - $1,927,896 – fully guaranteed 6/30

Wieskamp has shown enough in both the NBA and the G League that he’ll probably be back in Toronto. He could provide a little shooting for a team that doesn’t have enough of it.

Thaddeus Young - $8,000,000 – fully guaranteed 6/30

Young fell out of the Raptors rotation last season. If Toronto finds themselves working up against the tax line, which could happen pending re-signings, Young will probably get waived to save $7 million (he’s already $1 million guaranteed). If Toronto needs to use his salary in a trade, Young could see his deal become guaranteed.

Utah Jazz

Kelly Olynyk - $12,195,122 – fully guaranteed 6/28

Olynyk’s deal is already guaranteed for $3 million. He’ll get the rest of it guaranteed, as he’s a rotation player for the Jazz. He could also be involved in a trade, as Utah continues to evolve their roster.

Washington Wizards

Chris Paul - $30,800,000 – fully guaranteed 6/28

Paul’s deal will become fully guaranteed ahead of his trade to the Golden State Warriors for Jordan Poole.


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