2023 Starting Quarterback Contract Tiers

Michael Ginnitti
Michael Ginnitti, Managing Editor & NFL/MLB ExpertAugust 07, 2023
© USA TODAY Sports

As preseason games begin, it's a great time to evaluate the current & future contracts of all 32 (projected) starting Quarterbacks for the upcoming season. For the third straight year, we've developed a set of custom tiers to organize the players into, ranging from our Locked & Loaded setup, down to our "Might Not Make Week 8" predictions. All of these groupings are based on two things: What the Contract Says, and What Common Sense Says.

Locked & Loaded

Players who are under contract with guarantees that live more than two years out right now, and have no “extension” in sight.

Josh Allen (Bills)

Allen enters Year 3 of an 8 year deal in Buffalo, set to earn $28M for the 2023 campaign. All of his $30M 2024 compensation is already fully guaranteed, as is $25M from his 2025 cash package. There’s a clear out for the BIlls after the 2025 season, despite 3 years, $120M left on the contract at that point.

Russell Wilson (Broncos)

Wilson’s $28M for 2023 is fully guaranteed. His $39M for 2024 is fully guaranteed. And by next March, his $37M for 2025 will be fully guaranteed. That $104M represents the practical remaining contract for Russ, who is looking to build on a career low season in 2022.

Deshaun Watson (Browns)

2022 was always going to be a throw-away year for Watson, as he missed 11 games due to suspension, and tried to ramp up quickly with his new team thereafter. Now, it’s about the 4 years, $184M fully guaranteed remaining, and cap hits of $64M in each of 2024-2026. A lot of teams will be watching how Cleveland handles this situation in the coming years.

Justin Herbert (Chargers)

Despite little team success in his first 3 NFL seasons, Herbert has checked all of the boxes that teams look for when trying to identify a “franchise” QB. LA rewarded him with $218M practically guaranteed through the 2028 season. It’s a Kyler Murray type structure for Herbert, and a team that may be going through a similar “rebuild on the fly” process that the Cardinals are currently experiencing. But locking down the QB1 was a no-brainer for the franchise regardless.

Anthony Richardson (Colts)

Richardson hasn’t officially been named Indy’s Week 1 starter, but the more we hear about him, the more it seems like we’ll get there soon. Contract years for WR Michael Pittman and RB Jonathan Taylor could make for a big inaugural season for Richardson, who’s skillset and athleticism alone could set him apart from many of his peers. Contractually, he’s guaranteed $34M through 2026, with a 5th-year option available in 2027 as needed.

Jalen Hurts (Eagles)

Hurts replaced a non-guaranteed $4.3M expiring rookie salary with $110M fully guaranteed at signing, and more than $208M practically guaranteed through 2027. A quadruple bonus structure (the real Philly Special), keep initial cap hits tempered, putting the franchise in a very good position to retain/add the next few offseason. Hurts bagged a $20M raise this year on the new deal, and basically took a franchise tag payout ($40M) for 2024.

Bryce Young (Panthers)

The #1 overall selection is a lock to take the Week 1 snaps for Carolina, who aren’t being shy about adding savvy veterans (even as we speak) to continue to build a deep and experienced roster around Young. It’s a sign that they know exactly what they have in a 22-year-old QB1, and we should all be watching closely. Young is fully guaranteed at $38M through 2026, with a 5th-year option available in 2027 as needed.

Lamar Jackson (Ravens)

Agent. No Agent. Hold out. No Hold out. Lamar did well for himself this spring, locking in $208M over the next 4 seasons for practical purposes. There’s a $74.65M cap hit sitting in 2026 that will certainly get a conversation started sooner rather than later.

C.J. Stroud (Texans)

Stroud still hasn’t officially been named Houston’s Week 1 starter, but it’s certainly trending in that direction. The Texans added a few veteran weapons to the offense, preceding his arrival, including RB Devin Singletary, TE Dalton Schultz, & WR Robert Woods. Contractually, Stroud is fully guaranteed at $36M through 2026, with a 5th-year option available in 2027 as needed.

Locked but Ready to Reload

Players who are under contract with multi-year guarantees, but are in negotiations for a restructured extension.

Patrick Mahomes (Chiefs)

Imagine having 9 years, $414.55M remaining on your contract (almost all of it guaranteed early), and both you and your team publicly agreeing that it’s just simply not good enough to move forward with. That’s where Mahomes & the Chiefs currently stand, and it’s largely expected that some form of restructured contract will be announced in the coming months. Until then, the almost 28-year-old is due $40.45M in 2023, the most he’s earned in a year by far.

Dak Prescott (Cowboys)

After tumultuous negotiations to hammer down a rookie extension (double tags, leg injury), the Cowboys and Prescott are already back at the drawing board - after 2 years, $95M. The current contract holds 2 years, $65M remaining, but most are eyeing a $59.455M cap hit for 2024 as a reason to start working on things immediately, and rightfully so. Prescott values toward a 4 year, $250M extension in our system.

Joe Burrow (Bengals)

The decorated 26-year-old is amidst blockbuster extension negotiations, with 2 years, $35M remaining on his rookie deal. Justin Herbert’s $218M of practical guarantee is the number to watch for a new Burrow contract, though a shorter term would certainly favor the player here (especially one with his resume).

Locked but the Security System is Down

A tier of one is never good news for a player, and Murray’s future could be heading toward unprecedented territory.

Kyler Murray (Cardinals)

An ACL tear cut Murray’s extension debut season short, and figures to hamper some of a $39M 2023 campaign as well. He’s practically guaranteed through 2024 right now, with year-early guarantees built into his 2025, 2026, & 2027 salaries. Murray has one of the stronger structured deals in all of football, and yet, could very well be on the trade block in 6 months if the Cardinals hit the draft lottery (as expected). This one could get messy.

The (Future) Departed

Players set to play out an expiring contract in 2023, with a future in their respective franchise unknown at this stage.

Kirk Cousins (Vikings)

Kirk D. Cousins is staring down a familiar path - pending free agency. The last time he was here, he penned a fully guaranteed 3 year contract with the Vikings, tacking on back to back guaranteed extensions thereafter. For now, it’s a 1 year, $30M expiring deal for 2023, with a huge question mark for next March. Cousins is a $45M per year player in our system right now.

Ryan Tannehill (Titans)

The 35-year-old is on an expiring contract in 2023, set to earn $27M (none of which guarantees until Week 1). Tennessee has selected a mid-level QB prospect in each of the last two drafts (Malik Willis, Will Levis) but neither appear ready to wrestle 1st-team snaps away from Tannehill yet. With that said, it would be a surprise if he remained in Tennessee after the 2023 campaign.

Playing for the Bag

Players either trending toward an early rookie extension, or vets heading toward an extendable point of their current deal.

Justin Fields (Bears)

Fields offered the Bears a better version of himself in 2022, improving in every major statistical category over his rude awakening rookie debut. The team has added significant pieces across the board this spring, including a shiny new toy in D.J. Moore for Fields to link up with on Sundays. There’s a world where we’re discussing his rookie extension in a few months, and another world where we’re debating his replacement plan. It’s a 2 year, $5.5M guarantee through 2024 on his rookie deal, and Chicago will need to make a decision on his 5th-year option next May.

Tua Tagovailoa (Dolphins)

Tua is extension eligible as we speak, but common sense says the Dolphins need to see a few more Ws on the field, and a lot more healthy weeks strung together from their QB1 before they get serious about a serious pay raise. With that said, Tua is now in a Jalen Hurts’ spot, where the team has exhausted resources from every channel possible to build a contender around him. If he does his part, and the Dolphins go on a run in 2023, a blockbuster extension should be a slam dunk next spring.

Trevor Lawrence (Jaguars)

The Jaguars are rounding into postseason form just as Lawrence is set to become extension eligible. If all goes well, this should lead to more historic financials for the QB position next summer, with contracts for Burrow & Herbert as new baselines for the 23 year old.

Jared Goff (Lions)

Goff has really re-centered his career with the change of scenery, and there are legitimate conversations about a post-2023 extension to keep him at the helm of the Lions’ offensive for the foreseeable future. Strong season from both him and the team probably locks in this notion, with a mid-40s per year contract easily in range. For now, Goff sits on a 2 year, $52.6M contract, including $26M to be earned for the upcoming season.

Time for Two

Players with new contracts that hold exactly two years of full guarantee upfront.

Daniel Jones (Giants)

Jones avoided the franchise tag in NY (thanks running backs), and was extended to an $81M guarantee through 2024. There’s a clear out thereafter, putting the remaining $78M of the contract on notice.

Aaron Rodgers (Jets)

Rodgers and Co. turned a $107M guarantee through 2024 into a $75M one with a restructured contract that lowered his overall cash payout by $33.765M. The cap hits through 2024 ($8.8M, $17.6M) are extremely team-friendly, setting the Jets up to maneuver as needed. Now can the two sides get the whole football thing synced up at a high level in a moment’s notice? We’ll soon find out.

Matthew Stafford (Rams)

A concussion derailed the first year of Stafford’s $160M extension in LA, but the Rams let another $57M of the deal fully guarantee this past March, showing confidence in the 35 year old. Stafford is now locked in through 2024, with another $10M (2025 salary) set to guarantee next March. We’ve seen the Rams pay-to-release a player more than a few times of late.

Derek Carr (Saints)

Carr was released ahead of a $40.4M guaranteed in Las Vegas, turning that into $60M guaranteed at signing ($70M practical) with the Saints soon thereafter. It’s a 2 year test run with a fun offense, with another 2 years, $80M on the backend if New Orleans wants to keep it together.

When Two Becomes One

Despite guaranteed dollars existing in the 2024 year, there's a possibility that these player's respective teams could decide to move off of the contract anyway, either via trade - or outright buyout.

Jordan Love (Packers)

A mini-restructure bought Green Bay a little financial breathing room, and more importantly, a little more time to assess if Jordan Love can take the reins under center for the foreseeable future. Love is guaranteed $13M across this and next season, with playing time/production escalators that could add another $9M to the end game. Cap hits of $4.4M this year, and $7.7M next season certainly don’t impede the Packers from keeping this roster complete around him. But if 2023 is a disaster, a $5.5M guarantee isn’t stopping most teams from moving on anymore (though it’s a pretty fair backup QB salary as well).

Jimmy Garoppolo (Raiders)

With the injury concerns cleared (for now), Garoppolo has locked in $33.75M fully guaranteed through the 2024 season, $22.5M of which is built into the upcoming campaign. Is an $11.25M guarantee in 2024 enough to ensure him a roster spot? We’ve seen larger buyouts in recent scenarios.

One & Done?

Players either on actual one year contracts, or a contract that holds only one substant year of guarantee through 2023.

Baker Mayfield (Buccaneers)

We’re just guessing at this point. Mayfield has done nothing to separate himself from Kyle Trask, who’s done nothing to separate himself from any other career backup QB in the league. We’ll assume the more experienced player gets the early nod in Tampa, playing out a fully guaranteed 1 year, $4M contract, with another $4.5M of incentives available.

Geno Smith (Seahawks)

No franchise tag, no real threat of offers from other teams, just a good ole’ fashioned logical extension for Seattle and the second coming of Geno Smith. Unfortunately, outside of a $12.7M injury guarantee, it offers the QB no security past the 2023 season out of the gate. It’s a 1 year, $27.5M contract until it’s not. Again - logical.

Might Not Make Week 8

Despite shaky 2022 seasons from a few listed here, these players aren’t eligible for an extension even if their team was dying to hand them one. That doesn’t make (any) of these players stable for 2024.

Sam Howell (Commanders)

The 5th-rounder out of UNC had a heck of a college career, and appears to have the full confidence of this Washington organization heading into the regular season. If he can stay upright and pass accurately, a combination of Terry McLaurin & Jahan Dotson should make him look pretty darn good at times. Howell sits on non-guaranteed minimum salaries ($2.95M total) through 2025.

Desmond Ridder (Falcons)

The former 3rd rounder out of Cincinnati gets the keys to one of the more fun offenses (on paper) in all of the league. Atlanta scored in droves last year, and attempted to fix the “inability to play defense” problem this past spring. Ridder could be game managing himself into a really nice spot with the Falcons come the holidays. Contractually, none of the $3.5M remaining through 2025 is guaranteed, though his rookie deal holds training camp roster bonuses that pay out a portion of his salary a few weeks early.

Mac Jones (Patriots)

It feels like a make or break year for Mac Jones (and maybe more major names in New England), who took a major step backwards, both statistically and from a reputation standpoint, in 2022. He’s fully guaranteed at $4.8M through 2024, and the Patriots will need to decide on his 5th-year option by next May.

Kenny Pickett (Steelers)

Pickett didn’t blow anyone away in his debut season, but a 64% completion rate, and his ability to scramble with a purpose at least have people interested in where this could go with a full season under his belt. There are (much) worse offensive weapon groups than the Harris, Johnson, Pickens, Freiermuth) package Pittsburgh is set to roll out in 2023, but it’s unclear if Omar Kahn did enough bolstering to the offensive line to give Pickett a fair shake this season. Contractually, he’s guaranteed $5.95M through 2025, with a 5th-year option available in 2026 as needed.

Brock Purdy (49ers)

Despite having two #3 overall selections on the depth chart alongside him, if Purdy is healthy, everyone in San Francisco is screaming that he’s the guy for 2023. He completed 67% of his passes last season, averaging 152 yards per game, but posting an extremely efficient 107.3 passer rating for 2022. He obviously understands the task at hand in San Fran’s offense, but is he skilled & physically gifted enough to remain upright and healthy for a marathon of 18+ weeks? Purdy sits on non-guaranteed minimum salaries ($2.95M total) through 2025.


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