Next Contract Series: Giannis Antetokounmpo

Keith Smith
Keith Smith, Resident NBA ExpertSeptember 01, 2023
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Giannis Antetokounmpo made waves recently when he told The New York Times that he wouldn’t consider an extension with the Milwaukee Bucks until 2024, at the soonest. Antetokounmpo made it clear that he is prioritizing winning, as he moves into the second half of his career. The Bucks superstar wants to be sure that Milwaukee is committed to building a roster, and spending to do so, that can contend for titles.

Essentially, Antetokounmpo is exercising the superstar’s right of putting pressure on his team to keep pushing forward. Antetokounmpo even hinted that if Milwaukee starts talking about a rebuild, that he wants no part of that.

That means that we could be looking at a repeat of 2019 and 2020, when every team in the league was lining up to make a run at Antetokounmpo. Ultimately, he chose to stay with the only NBA home he’s known, and Antetokounmpo signed a Designated Veteran Extension.

The 6-foot-11 forward is now two seasons into that five-year extension he inked in the summer of 2020. Because the NBA was operating under an adjusted calendar due to COVID at the time, Antetokounmpo signed his extension in mid-December. That adjusted calendar, and the resulting carry-over impact, means Antetokounmpo isn’t eligible to sign a new extension with Milwaukee until September 22.

In order to understand what Antetokounmpo’s next contract might look like, we need to look at what he has left on his current deal. Here’s the three years remaining on that Designated Veteran Extension:

    • 2023-24: $45,640,084
    • 2024-25: $48,787,676
    • 2025-26: $51,935,268 (player option)

Because he still has either two or three years left on his deal, Antetokounmpo has a lot of options for how he can handle a new deal with the Bucks. That amount of time left and the player option in 2025-26 gives him the ability to approach extension talks in a number of different directions.

It’s also important to note that Giannis Antetokounmpo now has 10 years of service (How did that happen so quickly? Didn’t he just get to the NBA?). He’s eligible for the maximum amount possible, without any sort of Designated Player language being a factor.

Signing a Veteran Extension in 2023

On September 22 when he becomes extension-eligible, Giannis Antetokounmpo has two different options, if he wanted to extend this season. Yes, we know he said he wouldn’t do that, but we want to cover those options to paint a full picture.

Option 1 would see Antetokounmpo exercise his player option for the 2025-26 season and then add two new seasons onto his deal. That would look like this:

    • 2023-24: $45,640,084
    • 2024-25: $48,787,676
    • 2025-26: $51,935,268 (opted in)
    • 2026-27: $60,137,000
    • 2027-28: $64,947,960
    • Total: five years, $271,447,988
    • New salary: two years, $125,084,960

In this option, Antetokounmpo adds two new seasons and roughly $125 million on his deal. The first season of new money would hit in 2026-27 and is projected at a 35% of the cap maximum salary of $60,137,000. Antetokounmpo would add a second season of new salary at an 8% raise to $64,947,960.

Option 2 would see Antetokounmpo decline his player option for the 2025-25 season. He would then add three new seasons onto his deal. That would break down like this:

    • 2023-24: $45,640,084
    • 2024-25: $48,787,676
    • 2025-26: $54,670,000
    • 2026-27: $59,043,600
    • 2027-28: $63,417,000
    • Total: five years, $271,558,560
    • New salary: three years, $177,130,800

In this option, Antetokounmpo adds three new seasons and roughly $177 million, starting at 35% of the cap in 2025-26 at $54.7 million. In total, he would make slightly more money in Option 2 vs Option 1.

Signing a Veteran Extension in 2024

This option is far more likely, if only because Giannis Antetokounmpo told us directly that he wouldn’t consider an extension until 2024. In this case, he again has two different options.

Option 1 sees Antetokounmpo pick up his player for 2025-26. He would then add three years in new salary to his deal. That ends up looking like this:

    • 2024-25: $48,787,676
    • 2025-26: $51,935,268 (opted in)
    • 2026-27: $60,137,000
    • 2027-28: $64,947,960
    • 2028-29: $69,758,920
    • Total: five years, $295,566,824
    • New salary: three years, $194,843,880

In this option, the Bucks star adds three years at almost $195 million. He then bumps his total five-year value to about $295.5 million.

Option 2 would see Antetokounmpo opt out for 2025-26. He would then add four years of new salary to the one year he would have remaining on his deal. That extension looks like this:

    • 2024-25: $48,787,676
    • 2025-26: $54,670,000
    • 2026-27: $59,043,600
    • 2027-28: $63,417,000
    • 2028-29: $67,790,800
    • Total: five years, $293,709,276
    • New salary: four years, $244,921,600

This deal comes in slightly shy of the opt-in version. That’s because the cap is projected to go up 10% vs the 8% a player can get in a raise. So, while Antetokounmpo’s 2025-26 salary would be higher, his 2026-27 salary wouldn’t come in quite as high.

Signing a Veteran Extension in 2025

Giannis Antetokounmpo could take this into the final year of his contract. In that case, we’d see him opt in for the 2025-25. He could then add four years onto his deal. That would look like this:

    • 2025-26: $51,935,268 (opted in)
    • 2026-27: $60,137,000
    • 2027-28: $64,947,960
    • 2028-29: $69,758,920
    • 2029-30: $74,569,880
    • Total: five years, $321,349,028
    • New salary: four years, $269,413,760

This is the most lucrative option for Antetokounmpo in any extension. That’s because of the addition of a fourth year at roughly $74.5 million. That would push his total contract north of $320 million.

Signing with another team as a free agent in 2025

Let’s say the Bucks decide things have gotten too expensive, or that some of their players aren’t worth the big money they can command. In this scenario, Milwaukee starts talking about rebuilding, or at least resetting. And Giannis Antetokounmpo isn’t having it. He’s ready to see what it’s like playing somewhere else. The max he could sign for with another team would be:

    • 2025-26: $54,670,000
    • 2026-27: $57,403,500
    • 2027-28: $60,137,000
    • 2028-29: $62,870,500
    • Total: four years, $235,081,000

This is a four-year, maximum salary, starting at the projected 35% of the cap max of $54.7 million with 5% raises. Comparing Year 1 through Year 4 salaries only, this option is about $11.8 million shy of what Antetokounmpo could get by extending with the Bucks outright in 2025 (after opting in).

Re-signing with the Bucks as a free agent in 2025

Let’s say Antetokounmpo plays things out for the next two seasons, opts out, but decides to re-up with Milwaukee in the summer of 2025. He’d be eligible for the largest contract in NBA history. It would look like this:

    • 2025-26: $54,670,000
    • 2026-27: $59,043,600
    • 2027-28: $63,417,200
    • 2028-29: $67,790,800
    • 2029-30: $72,164,400
    • Total: five years, $317,086,000

This contract dwarfs any of the other options. Antetokounmpo would get over $317 million in total money (and that’s off relatively conservative projections right now!). In Year 1 through Year 4 comparisons, Antetokounmpo would make nearly $10 million more by re-signing with the Bucks over leaving Milwaukee. And this is again, slightly less than extending after opting in would be. This is again because cap growth of 10% projects to outpace the maximum 8% raises.

Re-signing with the Bucks as a free agent in 2026

This is the final option we’re going to present, and it’s probably the biggest longshot on the board. Let’s say Giannis Antetokounmpo plays out his full current contract through 2025-26, and then re-signs with Milwaukee on a maximum deal. That contract would look like this:

    • 2026-27: $60,137,000
    • 2027-28: $64,947,960
    • 2028-29: $69,758,000
    • 2029-30: $74,569,880
    • 2030-31: $79,380,840
    • Total: five years, $348,794,600

That’s nearly $350 million in total money for Antetokounmpo on a five-year, max deal. It’s almost an unfathomable amount, but that’s the reality of where we’re headed with these contracts in the new cap environment. This is where we’ll remind everyone that the starting salary of $60,137,000 is still 35% of the cap. That figure doesn’t change. It’s just that the cap is projected to go up somewhere between 4% and 10% every season for the foreseeable future.

Summary

Giannis Antetokounmpo is going to land one of the richest contracts in NBA history, no matter when and where he signs. But there are some important things to note.

First, we covered seasons ranging from 2023-24 (this season) through 2030-31 (eights seasons from now). Here are Antetokounmpo’s ages and years of service in each of those seasons:

    • 2023-24: Age 29, Year 11
    • 2024-25: Age 30, Year 12
    • 2025-26: Age 31, Year 13
    • 2026-27: Age 32, Year 14
    • 2027-28: Age 33, Year 15
    • 2028-29: Age 34, Year 16
    • 2029-30: Age 35, Year 17
    • 2030-31: Age 36, Year 18

Second, Antetokounmpo has already played more than 26,000 minutes in his career. He’s had some relatively serious injuries in the first 10 years of his career too.

When we add those things together, combined with Antetokounmpo’s direct comments on extending, as well as looking at the money at stake, it starts to make a much clearer picture.

We can rule out Antetokounmpo extending when he’s eligible near the end of September. He’s already told us he won’t be doing that.

We probably safely rule out Antetokounmpo playing out the three remaining seasons on his contract and signing a new five-year deal in 2026 too. Given his age, career mileage and injury history, Antetokounmpo won’t leave that much to chance.

We also probably rule out simply playing out his deal with the Bucks, opting out in 2025 and then re-signing with Milwaukee as a free agent. That’s almost as risky as playing out the entire remainder of his deal, and the financial upside really isn’t all that great.

That leaves two real options. Antetokounmpo extends with Milwaukee in 2024. Or he plays out the two final guaranteed seasons on his contract and leaves the Bucks as a free agent in the summer of 2025.

The guess here is Milwaukee will do whatever is necessary over the next two seasons to convince their franchise player that he should stay in the only NBA home he’s ever known. The Bucks can still offer him the most possible money, either via extension or a re-signing. It’s up to them to make him want to stay in Milwaukee.

That leaves only a few real questions:

  1. Will Antetokounmpo opt in for 2025-26 and add three new years? Or will he opt out and add four new years? Bet on the first option, as he’ll likely make more money, and it gets hm back on the market for one more possibly big contract in 2029 heading into his age-35 and Year 17 season.
  2. Will Antetokounmpo take less years than the max he’s able to? He could look to game the system a bit, while also keeping pressure on the Bucks, by extending but adding a year or two fewer than he’s eligible to in an extension. That way he can get back on the market sooner, and potentially cash in even bigger by taking advantage of the year-over-year cap growth.
  3. What moves do the Bucks have to make over the next year to show Antetokounmpo they are serious about staying contenders? First is getting something done to keep Jrue Holiday in Milwaukee. After that, it’s probably being aggressive in trading role players and draft picks (when they are able) to upgrade with top-tier talent. That could leave the team thin depth-wise, but that’s not really the superstar’s problem to worry about. That’s for the front office to figure out, if they want to keep Antetokounmpo in the Good Land green and Cream City cream.

 


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