The 2023-24 MLB Offseason Financial Guide

Michael Ginnitti, Managing Editor & NFL/MLB ExpertOctober 08, 2023

© USA TODAY Sports

Arizona Diamondbacks

Much of the baseball world predicted that the young Diamondbacks were turning a corner, and they did just that in 2023. Corbin Carroll is the odds on favorite to win Rookie of the Year, Zac Gallen is a legitimate Cy Young candidate, and the mix of veteran presence (Longoria, Pham) plus young and athletic down the stretch seems to be the right balance to carry Arizona into the postseason this year, and into multi-year playoff contention going forward.

Arizona initially carries around $86M of tax salary into the 2024 season, including $16M stemming from Madison Bumgarner's terminated contract.

Pending Free Agents

Arbitration-Eligible Players

Option Players

Melancon didn't see the ball in 2023, and will certainly be moved on from at the $2M buyout price.

Extension Candidates

Zac Gallen (SP, 27) is the clear ace of this staff. He’s under control for two more years but can expect a substantial raise after earning CY Young votes in consecutive seasons. His closest recent comps, Corbin Burnes and Shane Bieber, both earned $10.01m in their second year of arbitration. This puts Gallen on pace for a $25M per year multi-year extension, projecting to a 6 year, $150M baseline contract right now.

Christian Walker (1B, 32) will be approaching 70 HRs, 200 RBIs and a 9 WAR over the past two seasons when 2023 comes to a close. He projects to a $12.2M salary next season for his final arbitration year, putting him in line for a 3 year, $60M multi-year extension overall.

Gabriel Moreno (C, 23) was acquired from Toronto prior to the 2023 season and has maintained consistency at the plate, elite reliability defensively, and should clear the season with a WAR north of 3.5. He’s looking at 5 more years of team control ahead of him, but Arizona may look to bounce on an early extension here, as it’s clear he’s a part of the core going forward.

Atlanta Braves

Another 100-win season for the Braves puts them in the driver's seat for the NL Pennant heading into October, and their outstanding front office work to lock in core players early, often, and handsomely should keep them in that seat for years to come. The free agent list is meager, the arbitration raises should be minimal, and this team should keep on ticking as is for awhile.

Pending Free Agents

Most of these names are/were rental pieces added for depth or platoon roles in various position groupings. RP Joe Jimenez is a candidate to return after posting a really strong K/BB split this season in the middle of the bullpen and could command Luke Jackson's $5.75M per year this winter.

Arbitration-Eligible Players

Option Players

Charlie Morton has fought father time off for years, but this might be his last run. At this point it seems unlikely that the Braves will pick up his $20M, though re-signing him at something more team-friendly is certainly in play. Rosario's $9M should be a real consideration for the 2024 Braves, while options for Hand, McHugh, & Yates are all likely declined as it currently stands.

Extension Candidates

Max Fried (SP, 29) will be entering the final year of arbitration in 2024, coming off of a season where he was limited to half of his starts due to various injuries. But the bottom line here is that for 4 consecutive seasons, he’s been one of the most efficient starters in all of baseball. He’s a near $30M per year valuation in our system heading into the winter, with an Arb 4 projection that could approach $20M.

Baltimore Orioles

Kyle Gibson was signed to be the veteran presence for a young, developing staff. It's gone exactly as planned for Baltimore, as he compiled an almost identical "solid" season to the one he posted with Philly back in 2023. A return on something similar to his 1 year, $10M deal could be in the cards. The bulk of Baltimore's 2024 40-man roster consists of players in pre-arbitration or early arbitration, meaning at or near minimum salaries across the board. This puts them in key position to go shopping on the open or trade market this winter, upgrading from players such as Jack Flaherty, Adam Frazier, & Aaron Hicks - all who played integral parts as role players down the stretch.

Pending Free Agents

Arbitration-Eligible Players

Option Players

Voth was DFA'ed in early September putting his $2.45M option decision all but to rest this Fall.

Extension Candidates

Anthony Santander (OF, 28) will be entering his final year of arbitration in 2024, after putting together back to back campaigns in Baltimore that prove his value as a starting, power-hitting outfielder. He stands to double his $7.6M 2023 salary next year, putting him on pace for a 5 year, $90M extension right now.

Gunnar Henderson (SS, 22) is on pace to finish his first full season with a WAR north of 6, with 30 doubles, 30 homers, and an OPS in the .840s as a realistic landing spot. If this is the player the Orioles believe he can be on an annual basis, there’s no time like the present to start talking long-term contract. Corbin Carroll’s 8 year, $111M contract in Arizona seems a target here.

Adley Rutschman (C, 25) carries an 8.5 WAR across his first 250 MLB games. He’s been as advertised since the O’s selected him #1 overall back in 2019 - a rarity for recent catching prospects. With no real comparable contract to work from, look for Baltimore to get creative in dealing with the long-term future of Rutschman, especially as it pertains to him defensively.

Boston Red Sox

After outkicking their coverage for parts of 2023, Boston finished the year dead last in the AL East, while also firing their GM down the stretch as well. This is an organization that has seemed to be at odds with itself since moving Mookie Betts to LA, and it appears a fresh start could be in order again this winter. Higher priced arbitration players (Verdugo, Pivetta) and guaranteed vets could very well find themselves on the trade block in the coming months, as a new set of eyes looks to purge before rebuilding.

Pending Free Agents

Arbitration-Eligible Players

Option Players

Rodriguez saw minimal time (11 IP) due to injury, while Kluber made only 9 starts, and was deemed a healthy scratch for most of September. Both of these options are likely to be passed on. Turner's case is interesting as he can take on a very nice $13.4M salary by opting in, or a healthy $6.7M buyout to hit the open market. The latter may be more attractive at his career phase.

Extension Candidates

Brayan Bello (SP, 24) finished his first full season with major improvements across the board, and is now the ace of this Red Sox staff. He’s not a strikeout machine (7.7 K/9), and he averages a hit per inning, but there are enough signs to point to him sticking as a reliable arm in this rotation for the foreseeable future. Aaron Ashby’s 5 year, $21M extension in Milwaukee could be a nice starting point.

Chicago Cubs

An awful lot of people (including Spotrac's own Dan Soemann) thought the Cubs were being undervalued heading into April. It took a minute, but they proved those evaluators correct down the stretch despite dealing with a roster that still has plenty of fat to trim off in the coming months. They've slow-played the use of their young prospects to date, setting up what could be a super talented, highly energetic group of players coming into camp next February.

Pending Free Agents

Arbitration-Eligible Players

Option Players

Stroman had a Jekyll & Hyde season, starting the year in legitimate Cy Young candidacy talk, but stumbling mightily down the stretch. Opting in to a $21M salary for next year to stay with this talented Cubs group seems the move right now.

Hendricks has posted his best season to date in 3 years, but it still might not be enough to keep on a $16M salary next season, while the resuscitated Bellinger is certain to opt-out for greener grass.

Gomes probably played himself into an exercise on his $6M salary, while Boxberger is likely declined to free up offseason spending cash.

Extension Candidates

Cody Bellinger (OF, 27) officially revived his career this season, pushing north of 25 doubles, 25 homers, a .300 average, and a 4 WAR. He’ll most certainly punt on a $12M mutual option in favor of a multi-year guarantee, but just how big will this next contract get to? It’s a tricky valuation, as injury (and more) saw his production plummet in 2021/2022, before the resuscitation this past season. Our math says 4 years, $90M could get this done, but the Cubs may not be willing to go that high in an offseason where they’re expected to be aggressive in many areas of the roster.

Justin Steele (SP, 27) still has three more years of arbitration ahead of him, but the Cubs have begun to jump on the early extension wagon of late. Steele is a legitimate Cy Young candidate in 2023, currently the 6th best value pitcher in the game according to FanGraphs, and with Marcus Stroman/Kyle Hendricks likely on their way out this winter, is as valuable to this Cubs franchise as anyone can be. Sandy Alcantara’s 5 year, $56M deal in Miami is a likely foundation point.

Chicago White Sox

The White Sox are going to finish the season with a near -200 run differential for 2023. Only Colorado and Oakland hold a worse ratio. From a free agent standpoint, only Grandal might be worth trying to bring back in some capacity, but subtracting - not adding - is the likely theme for the upcoming months here. Dylan Cease will find himself in trade talks as he enters his second year of arbitration, a prime time to shop him.

Pending Free Agents

Arbitration-Eligible Players

Option Players

Hendriks remarkable comeback from illness was derailed by Tommy John surgery this past June. His oddly structured deal offers Chicago little financial relief to move off of this winter ($15M salary is deferred to reduce the current value), so he probably sticks on their IL through most of 2024. Anderson's OPS dipped under .600 this season, putting him on track to hit the open market this winter. Clevinger was able to show signs of fully returning to form in 2023, and probably opts out of his end of a $12M mutual salary, seeking a multi-year guarantee.

Cincinnati Reds

Every year we have a team rise to the surface a year earlier than expected. In 2023, that would be the Cincinnati Reds who, despite just missing out on the postseason, unlocked so many answers to their immediate future throughout the year. Most of their pending free agents were trade deadline rentals who will find jobs elsewhere, as 2024 will largely be about letting some of these early 20 year olds grow into their roles. More than a few are in line for early extensions (De La Cruz, India, McLain, Friedl, Steer, Diaz).

Pending Free Agents

Arbitration-Eligible Players

Option Players

Discussion surrounding Joey Votto's future has already picked up steamed, and while it seems unlikely that the team will move forward on $20M, it's perfectly plausible to assume they might bring him back at a more logical price point. He may opt to head into the MLB analyst booth next spring though instead. Casali only saw 80 or so ABs in 2023, putting his $2.5M option on notice.

Extension Candidates

Spencer Steer (INF/OF, 25) has played all over the field for Cincinnati this year, his first full MLB season. At the plate, he’s been the Reds most consistent power hitter, will also showing speed on the base paths. That’s all you really need to know about what he’s in line for an early extension. Ke'Bryan Hayes’ 8 year, $70M extension in Pittsburgh could be in play.

T.J. Friedl (OF, 27) did a little bit of everything for the Reds this year, improving all of his speed & power metrics across the board. He’s a Top 50 best value according to FanGraphs, and a legitimate full breakout candidate in 2024. Cincy may look to get ahead of that this winter with a Bryan Reynolds type offer (8 years, $106M).

Cleveland Guardians

The house money Cleveland spent 2022 playing on quickly dissipated this past season, as the Guardians slipped back into average standing. A late waiver claim storm (Giolito, Calhoun, Lopez,. Moore) to try for one last push for retiring Manager Tito Francona fell wildly short, putting this team in a bit of flux heading into the winter months.

Giolito started off the year as a bright spot for the White Sox, but the wheels fell off after joining the Angels via trade, and then again with Cleveland down the stretch. He'll hit the open market for the first time with plenty of question marks attached to him.

Pending Free Agents

Arbitration-Eligible Players

Extension Candidates

Tanner Bibee (SP, 24) is just the latest young arm in the Cleveland system to blossom into a top of the rotation star. It’s still ridiculously early, but Spencer Strider’s 6 year, $75M deal in Atlanta is already the starting point.

Colorado Rockies

Things have gone well since the Rockies took on $50M of Nolan Arenado's contract to ship him off to St. Louis. Signed, Nobody. Colorado continues to spin its wheels year in and year out, planting themselves well into the NL West cellar in 2023, with a run differental well north of -200 to boot.

Pending Free Agents

Arbitration-Eligible Players

Detroit Tigers

The Tigers attempted to add a few notable pieces in hopes that their youth movement would develop ahead of schedule (Balitmore, Arizona, Cincinnati), but that hasn't been the case as of yet. A few of the notable controlled players (Meadows, Turnbull) will be hitting more expensive Arb 3 status, which could lead to more turnover than stability heading torward 2024. This is a young, team-controlled roster.

Pending Free Agents

Arbitration-Eligible Players

Option Players

Cabrera is winding down his retirement too, and will cash an $8M buyout on his way out of the league. Carson Kelly's minimal role (130 ABs) likely takes his club option out of the picture. But the big decisions come from the player side, where SS Javy Baez probably has no choice but to opt-in to a $98M remaining, while Eduardo Rodriguez seemingly played himself into a better financial future down the stretch, and will likely opt out of his $49M remaining.

Extension Candidates

Eduardo Rodriguez (SP, 30) declined a trade to the Dodgers 6 weeks ago, and has made it extremely clear that he’s happy in Detroit. He can (and will) opt out of the 3 years, $49M remaining on his current contract, putting the pressure on the Tigers to pony up to keep him in town. Something in the 5 for $100M range should get this done.

Houston Astros

An early injury to Jose Altuve and a season long battle for Michael Brantley tempered the Astros usual success this season, but they're still in strong shape to compete again in 2024. Framber Valdez (Arb 4) and Kyle Tucker (Arb 2) are set for monster pay increases, while the roster as a whole will see a major financial rise in 2024. But barring significant extensions to some of their core players (young and old), this current window of contention is beginning to close.

Pending Free Agents

Arbitration-Eligible Players

Option Players

Based on appearances, Neris' $8.5M option converted from a Team to a Player this past July. He's been rock solid for most of the past season, accruing a WAR north of 2.25 to date. He projects to a 2 year, $14.5M deal in our system, so an opt-out and extend could be in the cards here.

Extension Candidates

Alex Bregman (3B, 29) is quietly entering a contract year in 2024, set to earn $28.5M for the upcoming season. He’s a Top 25 hitter in basically every advanced metric out there still, putting back almost identical outstanding campaigns in 2022 & 2023. Will Houston be willing to pony up enough to keep the 2X All Star around? He projects to a 9 year, $286M contract in our system currently.

Kyle Tucker (OF, 26) has been an extension candidate for the better part of 3 offseasons now, and has only amplified his case in 2023. He carries a combined WAR near 16 since 2021, and projects to a $13M salary for Arbitration 2 (up from $5M this past season). This puts him in line for a multi-year extension near $33M per year.

Framber Valdez (SP, 29) didn’t quite match his career best 2022 numbers this season, but did enough to make the case that he’s a Top 10 pitcher in all of baseball right now. The 29-year-old projects to a 6 year, $140M+ contract in our system currently.

Kansas City Royals

Signed Zack Greinke to a "legacy deal" this spring was the final sign that Kansas City wasn't necessarily in "win-now" mode. They succeeded at not succeeding, while also seeing a few young players (notbaly Bobby Witt Jr.) grow into legitimate every day players this season.

Pending Free Agents

Arbitration-Eligible Players

Extension Candidates

Bobby Witt Jr. (SS, 23) has completely outpaced his strong rookie season numbers, including a WAR rating north of 4.5 in 2023. The 2019 #2 overall pick is holding up his end of the bargain, and Corbin Carroll’s 8 year, $111M extension in Arizona is now a solid floor.

Los Angeles Angels

The Year of the Ohtani in LA came crashing to a halt around mid August, and it now seems a certainty that he'll be signing elsewhere this winter. With elbow surgery now rendering him unable to pitch in 2024, Ohtani's already fascinating free agent contract to be has become an even bigger unknown. It still stands to reason that there's (at least) 1 team ready to offer the $500M contract and bet heavily on the next decade.

Pending Free Agents

Arbitration-Eligible Players

Option Players

Escobar has been relegated to platoon role late last year, putting his $9M option salary for 2024 on notice. The Angels overpaid for Loup two years ago with hopes that he could be a reliable 8th inning option, but that hasn't panned out.

Los Angeles Dodgers

It's been a weird year for Dodgers Nation. Freddie Freeman and Mookie Betts are legitimate MVP candidates. A plethora of injuries made for earlier than anticipated promotions for young players. Trevor Bauer & Julio Urias' off-field issues loom uncomfortably over the franchise, and yet the Dodgers are still going to win the West by 15 games and head into October one of the NL Favorites. Same as it ever was?

Kershaw's return might be one of the more important offseason storylines (you know, Ohtani-Watch notwithstanding). Deals for Max Scherzer, Jacob deGrom, & Justin Verlander have vaulted the 40-something club price into the high-30s. It's safe to assume Kershaw would return on something more logical if he chooses to keep playing.

Pending Free Agents

Arbitration-Eligible Players

Option Players

Lance Lynn's consistency has waned of late, putting his $18M price in question, as is Joe Kelly's $9.5M. Max Muncy bounceback year has all but secured his $10M option for 2024, while the remaining bullpen arms are likely declines at this stage.

Extension Candidates

Will Smith (C, 28) continues to be one of the more underrated players in all of baseball, buried amidst a lineup of superstars every season. Headed for Arb 2 in 2024, Smith now projects to a 5 year, $91M extension in our system.

Miami Marlins

If we told you that 2022 Cy Young winner Sandy Alcantara would have little to no effect on the Marlins' 2023 campaign, and 2022 Batting Title winner Luis Arraez would battle injury most of the year as well, you'd have a pretty good idea how the season might go: And you would be wrong. A gritty group of Marlins stayed relevant in the NL race the entire season, finding timely hitting, speed, and consistent pitching for most of the campaign. With minimal free agents to be, it's safe to wonder if a big spending winter might be in order to try to push this team further up the contention ladder.

Pending Free Agents

Arbitration-Eligible Players

Option Players

Berti's speed makes him plenty valuable at $3.5M, & Josh Bell probably doesn't find a new offer north of his $16.5M player option right now. Cueto & Barnes likely see their options declined this winter, while Soler probably looks to find a multi-year guarantee coming off his surprise near 40-homer campaign.

Milwaukee Brewers

The Brewers handled the NL Central for the 2nd time in 3 seasons, and will cruise into the postseason fairly healthy. Unfortunately, the value window they've been operating in as it pertains to their starting rotation is quickly closing, as both Corbin Burnes and Brandon Woodruff are headed for their final turns through arbitration this winter, while other notables (Devin Williams, Willy Adames) should see healthy arbitration raises as well in the coming months.

Pending Free Agents

Arbitration-Eligible Players

Option Players

Canha was exceptional for Milwaukee after treading water with the Mets to start the 2023 campaign. His $12M option is very much a possibility for Milwaukee going forward. Miley's $10M option seemed impossible coming into the year, but he's played his way into a real conversation now. Chafin's $7.25M salary is only a slight increase over his $6M 2023 compensation, but with plenty of other players seeing market raises, he and Justin Wilson are likely declines next month.

Extension Candidates

Corbin Burnes (SP, 28) will be entering a third and final year of arbitration in 2024, projecting toward a $14M salary for the upcoming season. While his numbers have actually been backsliding each of the past 4 seasons, he’s still considered one of the best Under-30 starters in the game. He carries a 6 year, $140M valuation in our system currently.

William Contreras (C, 25) has been one of the more reliable bats in 2023, arguably even the most valuable offensive player on the Brewers as a whole. The 25-year-old has 4 years of team control ahead of him, so we’re talking about a rare early extension for a catcher here. A lite version of Sean Murphy’s 6 year, $73M deal in Atlanta might be a target point.

Willy Adames (SS, 27) will be enteriing a third and final year of arbitration in 2024, set to earn $14M next season based on our estimates. He’s a fill-up-the-stat-board type of player, and Dansby Swanson’s 7 year, $177M deal in Chicago is a likely target.

Minnesota Twins

Surprising performances all over this roster led to a fairly easy AL Central title for the Twins. A few of those players (Gray, Taylor, Maeda) are set to hit the open market this winter, putting Minnesota's future contention ideas in a bit of flux. But this is still a young organization by nature, and if the likes of Kirillof & Buxton can stay healthy, they'll remain "in it" for awhile.

Pending Free Agents

Arbitration-Eligible Players

Option Players

Kepler earned $8.5M in 2023 and posted 5-year best numbers across the board. A bump up to $10M to keep him in the mix seems reasonable. Polanco has been a consistent, solid player for the Twins in each of the past two seasons, posting almost identical production. Has he done enough to warrant a $3M raise next season? Logic says the Twins decline this and try to re-sign him to something more tax friendly.

New York Mets

Spoiler: The Mets spent a lot of money and didn't make the postseason. Next year they'll spend a lot of money on players no longer playing on the team because they didn't make the postseason. They're too talented and pot-committed to rip it all apart, so any thought that they'll actually be sitting on their hands this winter seems a bit illogical. They'll be calling for Ohtani. They'll be calling for Soto. They'll be aggressively trying to purchase starting pitching. And they'll be aggressively trying to keep Pete Alonso around for the next decade, a player who has answered every question and then some in his first 5 seasons.

Pending Free Agents

Arbitration-Eligible Players

Option Players

Raley is due a $2M raise with his $6.5M option, and probably pitched well enough to garner it. It seems logical that NY will want to see him operate in front of Edwin Diaz before leaving town. Narvaez' player option ias actually $1M less than what he earned this past season. The 31-year-old may be seeking a multi-year guarantee elsewhere, but $7M to platoon with Francisco Alvarez isn't a terrible outcome. Ottavino's efficiency fell off of a cliff in 2023, so a $6.75M pay day as he approaches 38-years-old is a bit of a gift.

Extension Candidates

Pete Alonso (1B, 28) will be the focus of extension & trade talks this winter on the heels of a mess of a season for the team around him in NY. Alonso has done everything possible to set himself up a monster pay day, and he’ll be entering a final year of arbitration in 2024, set to earn $21.5M for his efforts. He projects to a 9 year, $323M extension in our system right now.

New York Yankees

Good or bad, the Yankees always find a way to lead the converastion each offseason - but this time around they may very well earn it. GM Brian Cashman's return is questionable. Manager Aaron Boone's return is questionable. Cy Young lock Gerrit Cole's winter of 2024 opt-out is looming, and plenty of positional roles underperformend in 2023. With that said, a healthy Judge and another year of experience for a few budding stars (Dominguez, Volpe, Wells) could be the only medicine this franchise decides to take in the coming months. That doesn't sound very Yankees-like however.

Pending Free Agents

Arbitration-Eligible Players

Extension Candidates

Gleyber Torres (2B, 26) has been immensely consistent to start his MLB career, and that’s a good thing. It seems evident that he’ll be good for 25 doubles, 25 homers, 12 steals, and a near .800 OPS annually, and that’s valuable to any team - let alone the Yankees. He projects to a $13M salary for his final arbitration year, with a 5 year, $81.5M multi-year extension currently in play.

Oakland Athletics

They told us it would be bad. It was worse. With the franchise now on the move in the next few years, will they continue to sit on their hands in Oakland? Their two pending free agents represented the 1st (May, $7M) and 3rd (Kemp, $3.7M) highest paid active roster players to finish out 2023. Expect much of the same going forward.

Pending Free Agents

Arbitration-Eligible Players

Option Players

Rucinski gave up 18 earned runs in 18 innings before hitting the shelf with an MCL sprain. The A's have a chance to pay him $5M or nothing this winter. Let's all guess which one they'll choose.

Philadelphia Phillies

It took a minute, but this loaded Phillies lineup finally righted the ship and cruised into the postseason once again, somewhat mirroring their unlikely run in 2022. Hoskins has been a longtime consistent producer, but missed his entire walk year due to a torn ACL. Will he recover in time to find a multi-year guarantee, or is a 1-year showcase deal in his cards? His market valuation aligns with the $20.5M projected qualifiyng offer for 2024. Nola isn't having his usual Top 5 Cy Young production year, but he's eclipsed 200 strikeouts for the 5th time in 9 seasons, and the 3rd year in a row.

Pending Free Agents

Arbitration-Eligible Players

Option Players

Kingery hasn't played a meaningful game for the Phillies since the 2020 season. This one is already stamped in red.

Extension Candidates

Zack Wheeler (SP, 33) has been the Phillies rock on the mound since 2021, and he hasn’t posted an ERA north of 4 since 2017 (with the Mets). He’s entering a contract year in 2024, set to earn $23.5M for his age 34 season. Will the Phillies look to tack on another 2-3 years at about that rate to keep him in the fold?

Bryson Stott (2B, 25) hit the ground running last year for his rookie campaign, but has improved across the board and then some in his sophomore season - now as a 2B. He’s looking at 5 years of team control ahead of him, but Philly make look to get ahead of any further breakout seasons with an early extension. Andres Gimenez’ 7 year, $106.5M extension in Cleveland could be a fit here.

Pittsburgh Pirates

The Pirates turned a corner for a minute in 2023, showing us plenty of young players to look forward to next spring. Andrew McCutchen's return home could signal the end of his career, but this faster paced game suits his style of play. Another go around isn't crazy.

Pending Free Agents

Arbitration-Eligible Players

Option Players

Garcia dealt with a nerve issue in his arm for the 2023 season, all but guaranteeing the Pittsburgh takes the free out on his club option this winter.

San Diego Padres

They spent, they spent some more, they acquired more at the deadline, and then eventually waived the white flag down the stretch. It would be an understatement to say that sweeping changes could be coming to San Diego in the coming months. We're just not positive which players or staffers get caught up in that as of yet. If the goal is to spend less in 2024, bringing back the NL Cy Young winner in Blake Snell probably seems unlikely.

Pending Free Agents

Arbitration-Eligible Players

Option Players

Martinez is a starter/reliever platooner who has filled a lot of innings up for San Diego in the past two years. If the goal is to cut payroll though, his $6M raise doesn't fit the bill. Wacha posted a repeat performance of his comeback season with Boston in 2022, and is a candidate to be exercised at the $16M price tag. If the Padres decline, he'll have a chance at a $7M player option - but it seems highly likely that'll he test the waters for plenty more. Lugo left NY to find a starting role, and has been outstanding for San Diego. It seems logical to believe that he'll declne the $7.5M guarantee in favor of a more starter like contract on the open market.

Extension Canidates

Blake Snell (SP, 30), is the favorite to win the NL Cy Young for 2023, putting to rest any concerns he generated with recent struggles to start his San Diego career a few seasons ago. He’s entering a contract year in 2024, set to earn $16M in his age-30 season, but projects to a 6 year, $130M contract in our system currently.

Juan Soto (OF, 24) still isn’t 25 years old, just surpassed 150 home runs, and is approaching 500 RBIs in his Major League career. He’ll be entering his 4th and final year of arbitration in 2024, and should see a nice raise over his historic $23M payment in 2023, but talks of him eventually scoring $500M on a multi-year extension may have cooled significantly at this stage. He’s a 12 year, $390M player in our system right now, but he's also as much of a trade candidate as he is an extension one.

San Francisco Giants

The Giants outkicked their coverage for much of 2023, but fizzled down the stretch. Many of their notable pending free agents are dealing with injuries heading toward the winter, which may temper their ability to find the offers they originally warranted. The Giants seem poised to strike big this year (after unsuccessfully connecting on Judge & Correa last offseason). Are they the next candidates to make a Texas Rangers type winter spending splash?

Pending Free Agents

Arbitration-Eligible Players

Option Players

Conforto didn't exactly live up to his $18M salary in 2023, but he's still widely expected to decline that price tag for 2024 and hit the open market. He's a 3/$50M type candidate this winter. Manaea split time in the bullpen and the rotation, and seems to have found his sea legs a bit down the stretch. His $15M player option seems a 50/50 call from the outside looking in. That's not the case for Ross Stripling however, who posted his worst season in 3 years, and seems a lock to take the $15M pay day waiting for him. Cobb has been one of the better value starters in all of baseball this year, so a $1M raise up to $10M next year seems more than doable.

Seattle Mariners

The Mariners are fighting for their postseason lives as we write this, so there's a world where some of these decisions change one way or another with a playoff run. But it's vividly clear that Seattle finally has something real cooking here for the first time in a long time. It's a big winter for this front office, and with minimal notable free agents to boot, bolstering (any way possible) should be the name of the game.

Pending Free Agents

Arbitration-Eligible Players

Extension Candidates

George Kirby (SP, 25) has lived up to the hype thus far after being selected #20 overall back in 2019. If the Mariners want to lock him in early, Hunter Greene’s 6 year, $53M extension in Cincinnati (buying out 2 years of Pre-Arb, 3 years of arbitration, and 1 year of free agency) should be a good platform to start with.

St. Louis Cardinals

Well that was ugly. Change seems imminent here, and with almost no notable free agents to account for, the Cardinals may be extremely active in the trade market and via non-tenders.

Pending Free Agents

Arbitration-Eligible Players

Tampa Bay Rays

Same as it ever was. The Orioles put on their best Rays' mask this year and stole the AL East away from them, but Tampa Bay finds themselves back in the postseason despite holding the 27th largest cash payroll in the game. That "value" will be mightily tested this winter, as a half dozen notable players advance into expensive tiers of arbitration. Will the Rays offload players to keep their price point at bay? Or will this be the winter of contract extensions in Tampa Bay that pay out handsomely over time, while keeping the team in a tax-friendly state annually?

Pending Free Agents

Arbitration-Eligible Players

Extension Candidates

Randy Arozarena (OF, 28) has now put together back-to-back-to-back seasons of consistent speed & power for the Rays. He also still holds three more years of arbitration control ahead of him, putting him into his 30s for a chance at free agency. Will the Rays do right by him this winter and lock him into a price point that works for everyone over the next 6 or so years? A deal around the $120M mark is warranted here (but not likely from Tampa’s standpoint).

Junior Caminero (SS, 20) is finishing the season in AA Montgomery right now, but is one of the Top 5 prospects in all of MLB. With Wander Franco’s immediate future with the Rays very much in question, bringing Caminero on board - and paying him before he breaks out - seems a very Tampa Bay thing to project here.

Texas Rangers

The Rangers are fighting to hold off Houston and Seattle for the AL West crown at the time of this piece. Either way the money cashed out has warranted huge returns for a franchise that has been treading water for quite some time. There's a laundry list of pending free agents to account for here, so this Rangers' front office will be as busy as ever this winter. Just how far up the payroll ladder will they be allowed climb? They finished 2023 #4 in cash, and likely Top 10 in tax.

Pending Free Agents

Arbitration-Eligible Players

Option Players

After a really nice bounceback campaign with the Dodgers, Heaney fell down to earth a bit in 2023, the walk rate and batted balls against percentages won't necessarily be in his favor on the open market, so locking in $13M with a contender seems highly likely here. The Rangers felt comfortable bringing back Leclerc at $6M this past season, and he produced better results for them in return. A minimal raise to $6.25M seems just fine.

Extension Candidates

Adolis Garcia (OF, 30) limped into the league 6 years ago, and has now put together 2 of the best back to back seasons in the game currently. His arbitration process begins this winter, and he projects to a very strong $5.5M salary for the first go around, putting him in line for a 6 year, $164M extension in total.

Toronto Blue Jays

The Jays are fighting for their Wild Card lives as we write this piece, and they still project to win 90 games this season, but it still feels like a bit of a let down year for Toronto either way. A lack of aggression to bolster this roster last winter, and some untimely injuries seems to have this franchise stuck in a very above average, but not yet contender place. Will a team with the 9th largest cash payroll continue to push the gas pedal down this winter?

Pending Free Agents

Arbitration-Eligible Players

Option Players

Merrifield is a nice fit for this faster style of play, but Toronto can't be dealing with an $18M salary for a player of his caliber. Green's club option is almost certain to be declined, but it converts to a $6.25M player option when that happens.

Extension Candidates

Kevin Kiermaier (CF, 33) was brought in to take on a platoon role with George Springer in order to (attempt to) keep him healthier. He proved he’s much more than somebody’s plan B, filling up the stat board as he did for years in Tampa Bay. He may be looking for a bigger role elsewhere this winter, but Toronto should strongly consider bringing him back at or around his current $9M salary to reinforce their roster.

Washington Nationals

All things considered, the Nationals are going to walk away from 2023 feeling better than most last place teams generally do. They won tough ball games, they saw a few young starting pitchers flash franchise potential, CJ Abrams and Lane Thomas appear on their way to be long-term everyday starters and the operated all season at less than $100M. Will this winter be about reinforcing saavy vets to see if these young prospects can quickly grow into their roles? The Nats are likely a year away from that stance. It may be another nickel and dime winter, where solid vets are added on team-friendly price tags with the hopes of flipping many of those players at the deadline for additional prospects. It's the long game for Washington.

Pending Free Agents

Arbitration-Eligible Players

Option Players

Robles actually posted career efficiency and power numbers in limited action (36 games), but it seems very likely that his time in Washington has come to a close.

Extension Candidates

Lane Thomas (CF, 28) took over the role from Victor Robles full-time this season and hit the ground running, heading toward posting career bests across the board. The Nats have a lot of young players to sort out in the coming years, but locking in a core center fielder as he approaches the final two seasons of arbitration might make a little sense here.