- PREMIUM
- HOME
- NFL
Popular Pages
Transactions
Trending Players
AFC East
AFC North
AFC South
NFC East
NFC North
NFC South
- NBA
Popular Pages
Transactions
Trending Players
Southeast
Atlantic
Southwest
Northwest
- MLB
Popular Pages
Transactions
Trending Players
AL West
AL East
NL West
NL East
- NHL
Popular Pages
Transactions
Trending Players
Atlantic
Pacific
- WNBA
Popular Pages
Transactions
Trending Players
Eastern
- EPL
Popular Pages
Transactions
Trending Players
- MLS
Transactions
Trending Players
Eastern
- ATL Atlanta UnitedAtlanta United FC
- MTL MontrealCF Montreal
- CLT CharlotteCharlotte FC
- CHI FireChicago Fire
- CLB Columbus CrewColumbus Crew
- DC UnitedD.C. United
- CIN CincinnatiFC Cincinnati
- MIA Inter MiamiInter Miami FC
- NSH NashvilleNashville SC
- NE RevolutionNew England Revolution
- NYC New York CityNew York City FC
- RBNY Red BullsNew York Red Bulls
- ORL Orlando CityOrlando City
- PHI UnionPhiladelphia Union
- TOR TorontoToronto FC
Western
- ATX AustinAustin FC
- COL RapidsColorado Rapids
- DAL DallasFC Dallas
- HOU DynamoHouston Dynamo
- LA GalaxyLA Galaxy
- LAFC Los AngelesLos Angeles FC
- MIN MinnesotaMinnesota United FC
- POR TimbersPortland Timbers
- RSL Real Salt LakeReal Salt Lake
- SD San Diego FCSan Diego FC
- SJ EarthquakesSan Jose Earthquakes
- SEA SoundersSeattle Sounders FC
- SKC Kansas CitySporting Kansas City
- STL St. Louis CITYSt. Louis CITY SC
- VAN WhitecapsVancouver Whitecaps FC
- NWSL
Popular Pages
Transactions
Trending Players
- ACFC Angel City FCAngel City FC
- BFC Bay FCBay FC
- CHI Chicago Red StarsChicago Red Stars
- HOU Houston DashHouston Dash
- KC Kansas City CurrentKansas City Current
- NJNY NJ/NY Gotham FCNJ/NY Gotham FC
- NC North Carolina CourageNorth Carolina Courage
- ORL Orlando PrideOrlando Pride
- POR Portland Thorns FCPortland Thorns FC
- LOU Racing Louisville FCRacing Louisville FC
- SD San Diego Wave FCSan Diego Wave FC
- SEA Seattle Reign FCSeattle Reign FC
- UTA Utah Royals FCUtah Royals FC
- WAS Washington SpiritWashington Spirit
- GOLF
Popular Pages
Trending Players
- TENNIS
ATP
WTA
- RACING
NASCAR CUP
FORMULA 1
- PVF
- OLYMPICS
Predictions for Spotrac's Top 10 MLB Free Agents
As we approach the offseason, Spotrac projects contracts & destinations for our Top 10 MLB Free Agents, including 7 pitchers, 2 position players, & 1 who can do a lot of everything.
RELATED: 2024 MLB Free Agents
-
Shohei Ohtani (DH/SP, 29, LAA)
Just how much (if any) will the UCL tear and subsequent surgery reduce Ohtani’s free agent contract? Let’s put it this way. If Shohei Ohtani was set to hit the market as just a position player this winter, his starting point would be Aaron Judge’s 9 year, $360M contract, which represented 17.1% of this year’s tax threshold. If we adjust that for the 2024 figure ($237M), this brings us to $366M over 9 years, or nearly $41M per year.
Gerrit Cole’s 9 year, $324M free agent contract with the Yankees back in 2020 represented 17.3% of that respective tax threshold. If we adjust for 2024, that means $369M over 9 years. If we lop off one year of that (because he won’t be available to pitch in 2024), it’s $328M for 8 years, or $41M per year.
In other words, if a Cy Young pitcher were to hit the open market this winter (see below), there’s a world where his agent could point to Gerrit Cole’s deal, and request 9 years, $369M in 2024.
And if a two-time league MVP were to hit the open market this winter, there’s a world where his agent could point to Aaron Judge’s deal, and request 9 years, $366M as a floor.
Is Shohei Ohtani going to score $735M over the next 9 years? Of course not. But we can’t argue that there isn’t data to show that he could conceivably request it. The only logical assumption we can make here is that 6-10 teams will make significant offers, and the only real question is: will the Dodgers match them all?Prediction: 12 years, $552M, Los Angeles Dodgers
-
Blake Snell (SP, 30, SD)
Talk about peaking at the right time, Snell turned a slow start in San Diego into a Cy Young performance heading toward the open market. He’s worth plenty more than the $45.5M he reeled in over the past 5 seasons.
Prediction: 5 years, $115M, Baltimore Orioles
-
Aaron Nola (SP, 30, PHI)
The production dipped in 2023 after a rock solid 2022 campaign (4th in Cy Young voting), but Nola now has over 650 strikeouts across the last 3 seasons, each of which he made 32 starts. He and Blake Snell should be eying very similar compensation this winter.
Prediction: 6 years, $140M, Arizona Diamondbacks
-
Cody Bellinger (OF, 28, CHC)
The Cubs don’t appear overly motivated to bring back Bellinger with any sort of long-term guarantee, but that shouldn’t stop him from finding a great contract this winter. After compiling a combined 1.0 WAR over the past three seasons, Bellinger broke back out with a 4.4 output, including 29 doubles, 26 homers, 20 stolen bases, and an .881 OPS. Is he fixed for good?
Prediction: 5 years, $110M, San Francisco Giants
-
Matt Chapman (3B, 30, TOR)
Chapman starting 2023 on a torrid pace, leading us all to believe he would blow past his 2022 production and post career highs. That didn’t end up being the case, and Chapman now enters the open market with at least a little bit of doubt attached to him. Still, he’s a power hitting, Gold Glove caliber 3rd baseman in an offseason where hardly any are available.
Prediction: 6 years, $100M, Los Angeles Dodgers
-
Josh Hader (RP, 29, SD)
After a rocky 2022, Hader rounded back into elite form heading toward free agency for the first time. Edwin Diaz put a new flag in the reliever market ground this winter, penning a $20.4M per year, $102M total value contract in NY. Will Hader approach or surpass these numbers? Mathematically he’s a $17.5M player in our system.
Prediction: 5 years, $90M, Chicago Cubs
-
Clayton Kershaw (SP, 35, LAD)
It’s been a steady dose of 1 year contracts for Kershaw and the Dodgers since 2021, and a steady dose of maintained, elite pitching production as well. If Kershaw (24 starts, 9.4 K/9, 177 ERA+) wants to continue his career, the Dodgers will almost certainly oblige. He’s a whopping $37M player in our system, but following the recent breadcrumbs here, a 1 year, $24M contract should be about right.
Prediction: 1 year, $23M + incentives, Los Angeles Dodgers
-
Yoshinobu Yamamoto (SP, 25, Japan)
He’s winning every pitching award possible in Japan, posting ridiculous numbers in 2023 (23 games, 169 Ks, 1.21 ERA) in what is largely believed to be his swan song season there. Every MLB team is in on this one.
Prediction: 5 years, $85M, New York Mets
-
Sonny Gray (SP, 33, MIN)
After what seemed like a few declining seasons in Cincinnati, Gray posted back to back elite years for the Twins, and is a large reason for their latest AL Central Division Title. He’ll be 34 years old by the time Spring Training approaches, so this won’t be a blockbuster deal, but he’s certainly earned another pay day in this league.
Prediction: 3 years, $66M, Minnesota Twins
-
Jordan Montgomery (SP, 30, TEX)
In 11 starts for Texas this year, Montgomery posted a 2.79 ERA, 1.094 WHIP, and a 2.1 WAR. He and Nathan Eovaldi became the goto arms for this team down the stretch, and at this point, it’s hard to imagine them moving forward without him in 2024 and beyond.
Prediction: 6 years, $110M, Texas Rangers
CATEGORIES
- NBA 98
- NFL 70
- GOLF 55
- NWSL 45
- MLB 26
- NHL 1
AUTHORS
- Michael Ginnitti NFL, MLB
- Keith Smith NBA
- Scott Allen Contributor
- Taylor Vincent NWSL
Potential NFL Market Resetters
As we head into the second half of the 2024 regular season, the time to start collecting potential offseason contract decisions begins now. Spotrac starts that process with a look at players who are trending toward signing a contract that would reset their respective position’s market.
Eckroat Wins World Wide Technology Championship
Austin Eckroat wins the World Wide Technology Championship and $1.296 million.
NWSL End of Season Award Guesses
Taylor Vincent gives her NWSL end of season award guesses for MVP, Midfielder of the Year, Defender of the Year, Goalkeeper of the Year, Rookie of the Year and Coach of the Year.
A Financial Recap of the NFL Trade Deadline
The November 5th trade deadline has come and gone, but not without a few eye-raising moves across the league. Spotrac dives into every official trade over the course of the last month, offering up the full details, updated player contracts, and financial ramifications for each.
The Complicated Case of NBA Bonuses, Taxes and Aprons
Taking a look at the complicated case of NBA bonuses, taxes and aprons with current scenarios around the league.
TRENDING PLAYERS
- 1 Dak Prescott (QB, DAL)
- 2 Aaron Rodgers (QB, NYJ)
- 3 LeBron James (PF, LAL)
- 4 Daniel Jones (QB, NYG)
- 5 Juan Soto (RF, NYY)
TRENDING PAGES
- 1 NFL Free Agents
- 2 MLB Free Agents
- 3 NFL Transactions
- 4 NFL Contracts
- 5 NBA Trade Machine