Predicting Every 2024 MLB Option Decision

Michael Ginnitti, Managing Editor & NFL/MLB ExpertOctober 13, 2023

© USA TODAY Sports

ARIZONA DIAMONDBACKS

Mark Melancon (ARI, RP, 39)
$5M Mutual Option ($2M buyout)

Melancon signed a 2 year, $18m guarantee with Arizona after leading the league with 39 saves in 2021. He disappointed in 2022, missed all of 2023 with a shoulder injury and now enters his age 39 season. The Dbacks are likely to decline their half of the mutual option despite a considerable buyout.

Spotrac Estimated Market Value: Minimum
Prediction:  ARI declines their end of mutual option, pays $2m buyout

Miguel Castro (ARI, RP, 29)
$5M Vesting Option

Despite an inconsistent season, Castro surpassed the 60 appearances needed to trigger a $5m Vesting option for 2024. He led all NL relievers with 75 games, finishing 21 of those. The option would have converted to a $6m Player option with 40 games finished.

Spotrac Estimated Market Value: $4.7M
Result:  2024 contract guaranteed at $5M

ATLANTA BRAVES

Charlie Morton (ATL, SP, 40)
$20M Club Option (no buyout)

Morton returned to Atlanta on a 1 year, $20m contract with a matching $20m Club option for 2024. Again he provided stability as the Braves mid rotation anchor, starting 30+ games for the 3rd straight season. I doubt this is a piece they want to remove amidst their World Series contention window so this one should be pretty straight forward. If the 40-year-old confirms he wants to return for a 17th season, the Braves are almost certain to exercise the option.  The price tag might feel uncomfortable but it’s in line with our system projections and similar options would likely require multi-year commitments.

Spotrac Estimated Market Value: $16.7M
Prediction:  ATL exercises the $20M option

Eddie Rosario (ATL, OF, 32)
$9M Club Option (no buyout)

Rosario was a key addition that helped fuel the Braves 2021 World Series run. He tested free agency but ultimately re-signed a 2 year, $18m guarantee with a 2024 Club option at the same $9m AAV. Since that deal, Atlanta has made major commitments to Matt Olson, Austin Riley, Michael Harris III and Sean Murphy. Most of their offensive core signed to multi-year deals which leaves limited room for offseason improvement on that side of the ball. To be clear, this is a great problem to have - but probably not for Rosario. Id’ be surprised if Atlanta, a team straddling the Luxury Tax threshold, chooses to dedicate $9m towards a platoon corner OF.

Spotrac Estimated Market Value: $6.4M
Prediction:  ATL declines the $9M club option

Brad Hand (ATL, RP, 34)
$7M Mutual Option ($500,000 buyout)

Hand signed a one year deal with Colorado that included a 2024 Club option. The option could become Mutual if he was traded or finished 25 games. While he fell short on games (15), Hand still earned some leverage with the midseason trade to Atlanta. Ultimately, we doubt it matters. He’s not a traditional closer at this stage of his career and the Braves could look towards cheaper options.

Spotrac Estimated Market Value: $2.5M
Prediction:  ATL declines their half of $7M mutual option

Collin McHugh (ATL, RP, 37)
$6M Club Option ($1M buyout)
Kirby Yates (ATL, RP, 37)
$5.75M Club Option ($1.25M buyout)

Both of these go in the same bucket as Brad Hand; useful veteran relievers with somewhat inflated team options that probably discourage a return. Perhaps Atlanta is underwhelmed by external options and decides to bring back one of the three but we projected all as doubtful to return on their respective options.

McHugh Spotrac Estimated Market Value: $4.5M
Yates Spotrac Estimated Market Value: $6.1M
Prediction: Both options declined, buyouts paid

BALTIMORE ORIOLES

Austin Voth (BAL, RP, 32)
$2.45M Club Option (no buyout)

Voth was DFA'ed in early September putting his $2.45M option decision all but to rest this Fall.

Spotrac Estimated Market Value: $1M
Prediction: Baltimore declines the option

BOSTON RED SOX

Justin Turner (BOS, 3B, 39)
$13.4M Player Option ($6.7M buyout)

This is one of the more interesting option decisions of the offseason. After the Dodgers declined his $16m Club option for 2023, Turner signed a 2 year, $21.7m guarantee with Boston. It paid $8.3m last season but he now controls a $13.4m Player option that carries a sizable buyout (50%). Entering his age 39 season, there’s probably two key considerations here: How many years does he intend to play AND is there motivation to play for a contender in those final seasons?

Turner could simply retire this offseason and earn $6.7m on his way out. If he plans to retire after 2024, he could just exercise the $13.4m Player option and finish his career in Boston. But if Turner intends to play beyond 2024, he might opt-out in search of another multi-year deal similar to his existing contract.

Financially speaking, the opt-out + buyout is his best option. Turner would enter a lackluster DH/1B free agent market coming off another productive season (.276 AVG / 23 HR / 96 RBI) and could realistically command a deal around 2 years, $15m. Accounting for the $6.7m buyout, the two year total would match his Boston deal ($21.7m).

Spotrac Estimated Market Value: $9M
Prediction: Turner declines the option, takes the buyout, and tests the open market

Corey Kluber (BOS, SP, 38)
$11M Club Option (no buyout)

This looks like the end of the road for the two-time Cy Young Award winner. Boston signed Kluber last offseason to a 1 year, $10m deal that included an $11m Club option for 2024. Simply put, he was one of the worst starters in MLB through June before finishing the season on the IL. Perhaps Kluber gets another shot if he’s healthy but no chance the Red Sox exercise this option.

Spotrac Estimated Market Value: $1M
Prediction: Boston declines the $11M option

Joely Rodriguez (BOS, RP, 32)
$4.25M Club Option ($500k buyout)

Rodriguez missed most of 2023 due to injury, making just 11 appearances for the Red Sox this season. He’ll be back on the open market this winter.

Spotrac Estimated Market Value: $1M
Prediction: Boston declines the $4.25M option

CHICAGO CUBS

Marcus Stroman (CHC, SP, 33)
$21M Player Option

Stroman was among the crowded group of SPs available in 2022 free agency.  He surprisingly signed with the rebuilding Cubs, settling for a short term deal that paid $50m across the first two seasons but provided a player option for 2024. That option vested at $21m but could have escalated to $25m based on innings pitched in 2022 and 2023 (conditions not met).

At one point it appeared obvious Stroman would opt-out following an All-Star worthy first half but he completely fell apart as the calendar flipped to July. He’s hinted at a desire to stay and potential extension but the Cubs reportedly are not interested. Now it seems he’ll likely opt-in to the final year and hope to restore some value ahead of 2024 free agency.

Spotrac Estimated Market Value: $15.6M
Prediction: Stroman exercises the $21M option

Kyle Hendricks (CHC, SP, 34)
$16M Club Option ($1.5M buyout)

This was the final guaranteed year of a 4 year, $55M arbitration extension that includes a $16M Club option for 2024. The option had vesting potential if he was top 3 in the 2020 Cy Young vote but Hendricks finished 9th.

His struggles in 2021 and 2022 made this option a longshot entering the season, but Hendricks’ bounceback performance will now force a difficult decision for the Cubs. The Stroman/Hendricks decisions are further complicated by multi-year commitments made to Jameson Taillon (4yr, $68M) and Drew Smyly (2yr, $19M) last offseason. The team probably anticipated Stroman and/or Hendricks being off the roster starting 2024. Instead, with Justin Steele their starting five might already be in place. It’s hard to suggest that's a bad problem but the Cubs need to find some runway for their younger arms.

Spotrac Estimated Market Value: $9.5M
Prediction: Chicago declines the option

Cody Bellinger (CHC, OF/1B, 28)
$12M Mutual Option ($5.5M buyout)

The former RoY and MVP could add Comeback Player of the Year to his accolades after a bounceback season in Chicago. The historic start to his career earned him $11.5m in 2020 and set a salary record for first-time eligible arbitration players. It put  Bellinger on pace to earn $44.6m across his first three years of arbitration eligibility despite the disastrous seasons that followed. The Dodgers non-tendered him last offseason to avoid paying the projected $18m salary in his final year of eligibility (Super Two status).

Bellinger subsequently signed a one-year ‘prove it’ deal with the Cubs. The $12m contract included a matching $12m Mutual option or $5.5m buyout for 2024. There’s no doubt Bellinger will decline his half of this but it’s less certain that he actually changes teams. Despite being one of the most coveted assets at the trade deadline, Chicago held him, and there seems to be mutual interest regarding a possible extension. If not, Bellinger should command one of the largest free agent contracts this offseason.

Spotrac Estimated Market Value: $22.5M
Prediction: Bellinger declines the option

Yan Gomes (CHC, C, 36)
$6M Club Option ($1M buyout)

Gomes served as the backup catcher in his first season with the Cubs but his role entering 2023 was uncertain after Willson Contreras departed to St. Louis in free agency. He ended up earning the lion's share of playing time on defense (55%) which helped facilitate a productive (.267 AVG / 10 HR / 63 RBI) line on offense. Now the Cubs hold a $6m Club option that would be a bargain if Gomes can come anywhere close to repeating that production. Chicago will likely exercise the option and pair him with Miguel Amaya for one more season.

Spotrac Estimated Market Value: $10M
Prediction: Chicago exercises the option

Brad Boxberger (CHC, RP, 26)
$2.45M Club Option ($800,000 buyout)

Boxberger only saw action in 11 games this season due to arm injury, so it’s unlikely the Cubs will rush to add guarantees to this situation anytime soon.

Spotrac Estimated Market Value: $1M
Prediction: Cubs decline the option

CHICAGO WHITE SOX

Liam Hendriks (CHW, RP, 35)
$15M Club Option ($15M buyout - deferred)

Hendriks remarkable comeback from cancer treatment was derailed by Tommy John surgery in August, another discouraging injury that could force him to miss most or all of 2024. This was technically the final guaranteed year of his deal but fortunately his 2024 total is ‘guaranteed’ in the form of a uniquely structured Club option. The $15m option carries a matching $15m buyout that would pay $1.5m annually over 10 years.

The White Sox could decline and spread out the cost to free up money next year but they've already removed over $75m from an Opening Day payroll that hovered around $190m in consecutive seasons. It's difficult to imagine this team contending in 2024 so new GM Chris Getz might be encouraged to clear this payroll next season rather than deferring into future years. 

Spotrac Estimated Market Value: $9.7M
Prediction: Chicago exercises the option

Tim Anderson (CHW, SS, 31)
$14M Club Option ($1M buyout)

At one point his 6 year, $25m pre-arbitration extension was considered one of the best value deals in all of baseball. Anderson led the league with a (.335) batting average in 2019, won a Silver Slugger in 2020 and added consecutive All-Star appearances in 2021 and 2022. Chicago exercised their $12.5m Club option last season and control a similar $14m Club option for 2024.

With a shifting contention window and Anderson coming off the worst season of his career, the White Sox probably want to move on. Not to mention they’d simultaneously clear a path for top prospect (SS) Colson Montgomery who could debut in 2024.

Spotrac Estimated Market Value: $5.1M
Prediction: Chicago declines the option

Mike Clevinger (CHW, SP, 33)
$12M Mutual Option ($4M buyout)

This situation is hard to read. Chicago waived Clevinger in August but he cleared and stayed with the organization. It was a cost savings transaction but could have hinted at plans to decline their end of a $12m Mutual option for 2024. White Sox manager Pedro Grifol expressed hope for a return but we’re skeptical. Given his 2023 performance and team context, Clevinger should be tempted to reenter the free agent market. There are some off field concerns that could complicate his value but we think he’ll command a multi-year guarantee regardless. At minimum, he should easily surpass the $8m he’d be walking away from.

Spotrac Estimated Market Value: $13.6M
Prediction: Clevinger declines the option

CINCINNATI REDS

Joey Votto (CIN, 1B, 40)
$20M Club Option ($7M buyout)

Votto just completed the final guaranteed season of the massive 10 yr, $225m extension he signed way back in 2012. Now Cincinnati holds a $20m Club option or $7m buyout for 2024. It sounds like the 40-year old plans to play an 18th season but it might not come via this option. Christian Encarnacion-Strand is their future at 1B and the Reds should look to give him a full season of reps to build on his strong debut. That could be hard to do with a legacy player making $20m still in the fold. But Votto is an institution in Cincinnati and they shouldn't rush him out the door, the option salary just doesn't align with his current value. Assuming there's mutual interest in a return, the Reds could decline + buyout ($7m) then hand him something around 1 year, $7m in a lesser role.

Spotrac Estimated Market Value: $5.5M
Prediction: Cincinnati declines the option

Curt Casali (CIN, C, 35)
$2.5M Club Option ($750k buyout)

A foot injury and a platoon role afforded Casali only 80 ABs in 2023, putting his $2.5M option on notice. Though it’s not a daunting salary for a team with very few veteran guarantees on its payroll.

Spotrac Estimated Market Value: $1M
Prediction: Cincinnati exercises the option

CLEVELAND GUARDIANS

No option candidates.

COLORADO ROCKIES

No option candidates.

DETROIT TIGERS

Miguel Cabrera (DET, DH/1B, 40)
$30M Club Option ($8M buyout)

After consecutive MVP awards in 2012 and 2013, Cabrera signed a massive 8 year, $248 million extension (starting 2016) days ahead of the 2014 season. The deal included individual $30m Club options for 2024 and 2025 that could vest with a top 10 MVP finish the previous year. Cabrera already announced his retirement following the 2023 season but these options were never in play from the start. He hasn’t received MVP votes since 2016 and would be entering his age 41 season.

Spotrac Estimated Market Value: N/A
Prediction: Retirement, Hall of Fame

Javier Baez (DET, SS, 31)
4 year, $98M Player Opt-Out

Baez was one of four big names at shortstop competing for free agent money in 2022. Corey Seager (10yr, $325M) signed a fully guaranteed deal but Carlos Correa (3yr, $105.3m), Baez (6yr, $140M) and Trevor Story (6yr, $140M) settled for contracts that included player opt-outs in 2023, 2024 and 2026 respectively. Correa capitalized on that strategy last offseason inking a 6 year, $200m deal despite a market including Trea Turner (11yr, $300M), Xander Bogaerts (11yr, $280M) and Dansby Swanson (7yr, $177M).

Now Baez is next in line with an opportunity to opt-out of the remaining 4 years, $98M left on his deal. It’s been reported he’s at least considering the opt-out which might come as a surprise following the worst full season of his career. We’re skeptical he’d match or exceed the total forfeited making it unlikely, but Baez would re-enter free agency as easily the most accomplished player available at the position - way ahead of other options like Brandon Crawford and Amed Rosario.

The offense has hit a cliff but he’s still excellent defensively. There would certainly be interest if he became available, just not at a $100m price tag. Perhaps the best-case scenario here is a trade where Detroit retains a chunk of the remaining contract (assuming no opt-out).

Spotrac Estimated Market Value: $11.7M
Prediction: Baez opts-in

Eduardo Rodriguez (DET, SP, 31)
3 year, $49M Player Opt-Out

Rodriguez just finished the second season of a 5 year, $77m contract but now has the option to opt-out and bypass the final three years of that deal. His choice should be simple considering he’ll easily command north of the $49m total left on the existing contract. We project his value lands somewhere between Joe Musgrove (5yr, $100m) and Kevin Gausman (5yr, $110m).

Rodriguez vetoed a deadline trade to the Dodgers citing his “desire to remain closer to family on the east coast”. Perhaps it was a signal towards intentions of staying in Detroit, but that narrative is complicated considering a ‘family situation’ forced him to spend almost 3 months away from the team in 2022. If a reunion is actually on the table, it’ll have to come via free agency. Tigers president Scott Harris already said the organization won’t negotiate an extension and will instead wait for Rodriguez to exercise his opt-out. Detroit has exclusive negotiating rights until that happens. If they do want Rodriguez back, it’s puzzling that they’re unwilling to discuss a new deal - unless both sides already know where this is headed.

Spotrac Estimated Market Value: $20.5M (5 years, $102M)
Prediction: Rodriguez will opt-out

Carson Kelly (DET, C, 29)
$2.5m Club Option

Kelly was picked up in August after a swift DFA by Arizona. There’s probably not enough meat on the bone here to justify a $2.5M salary next season, even if his 2-year valuation places him higher.

Spotrac Estimated Market Value: $4.3M
Prediction: Detroit declines the option

HOUSTON ASTROS

Hector Neris (HOU, RP, 34)
$8.5M Player Option ($1M buyout)

Neris came to Houston in 2022 on a free agent deal. The Astros brought him in as a direct replacement for Kendall Graveman who signed a 3 year, $24m contract with the White Sox. Houston was unwilling to go beyond two years for any reliever and landed Neris on a 2 year, $17m guarantee that included a third year Club option at the same $8.5m valuation. That option converted to a Player option after Neris appeared in 110 games across both seasons. A critical piece of the Astros dominant bullpen, his value has only increased since signing and we fully expect an opt-out in search of a multi-year guarantee.

Spotrac Estimated Market Value: $7.6M
Prediction: Neris opts out, seeking a multi-year deal

KANSAS CITY ROYALS

No option candidates.

LOS ANGELES ANGELS

Eduardo Escobar (LAA, 3B, 35)
$9M Club Option ($500k buyout)

Escobar was brought in on a 2 year, $20m guarantee after the Angels mistakenly self-assessed themselves as contenders. Now they’re tearing things down and will look to shed payroll wherever possible. This is one of those obvious spots and there is no chance they exercise his $9m Club option for 2024. Escobar can still provide value in the right situation and should find another deal, especially considering the 3B free agent market.

Spotrac Estimated Market Value: $5M
Prediction: LAA declines the $9M option

Aaron Loup (LAA, RP, 36)
$7.5M Club Option ($2M buyout)

LA brought in Loup to be the everyday setup reliever, and he hung around well in 2022 - but fell off of a cliff this past season. He’s a plug and play reliever at best going forward.

Spotrac Estimated Market Value: $1M
Prediction: LAA declines the $7.5M option

LOS ANGELES DODGERS

Lance Lynn (LAD, SP, 37)
$18M Club Option ($1M buyout)

Lynn was awful in Chicago and only marginally better after being traded to Los Angeles. He accepted the trade despite including the Dodgers on his no-trade list, which some players use to leverage future guarantees. Lynn could have approved the deal to LAD under conditions they exercise the 2024 Club option. We doubt that happened here considering his miserable first half performance. The Dodgers have questions at SP so perhaps they renegotiate, but not at this salary.

Spotrac Estimated Market Value: $8M
Prediction: LA declines the $18M option

Max Muncy (LAD, INF, 33)
$14M Club Option (no buyout)

Muncy posted another big season, raking 36 HRs, with an .808 OPS to boot. He’s a $15M player in our system, so a $14M option salary seems about right.

Spotrac Estimated Market Value: $15.7M
Prediction: LA exercises the $14M option

Joe Kelly (LAD, RP, 36)
$9.5M Club Option ($1M buyout)

Kelly was acquired from the White Sox prior to this year’s deadline, but spent a month in IL due to arm issues. His value has been cut in half over the past two seasons.

Spotrac Estimated Market Value: $4.4M
Prediction: LA declines the $9.5M option

Blake Treinen (LAD, OF/1B, 36)
$7M Club Option (no buyout)

Shoulder injuries/surgery derailed each of the past two seasons for Treinen. He’s a minimum player as he rehabs himself back to full health.

Spotrac Estimated Market Value: Minimum
Prediction: LA declines the $7M option

Daniel Hudson (LAD, RP, 37)
$6.5M Club Option (no buyout)

Knee injuries kept Hudson on the shelf for half of 2022 and all of 2023. He’s a minimum player as he rehabs himself back to full health.

Spotrac Estimated Market Value: Minimum
Prediction: LA declines the $6.5M option

Alex Reyes (LAD, RP, 29)
$3M Club Option (no buyout)

LA took a flier on Reyes, who missed all of 2022 with a shoulder injury, but went on to miss all of 2023 with a torn labrum as well. He’s a minimum player until he can prove he can stay healthy for a season.

Spotrac Estimated Market Value: Minimum
Prediction: LA declines the $3M option

MIAMI MARLINS

Josh Bell (MIA, 1B, 31)
$16.5M Player Option

Bell probably can’t beat a $16.5M per year average on the open market - but he probably finds a total value guarantee north of it. With that said, Bell’s season really turned a corner when he joined Miami.

Spotrac Estimated Market Value: $14.5M
Prediction: Bell exercises the $16.5M player option

Johnny Cueto (MIA, SP, 38)
$10.5M Club Option ($2.5M buyout)

Cueto posted a 6+ ERA and a minus WAR in 2023, putting his $10.5M option on notice. Is he in decline, or were injuries to blame for the struggles? He’s only 1 year removed from a 3.4 WAR campaign.

Spotrac Estimated Market Value: $9.5M
Prediction: Miami declines the $10.5M option

Jorge Soler (MIA, OF, 32)
$9M Player Option

Soler put together a big power season (24 2B, 36 HR, .853 OPS), setting the 31-year-old up for a multi-year guarantee this winter.

Spotrac Estimated Market Value: $14M
Prediction: Soler declines the $9M option

Matt Barnes (MIA, RP, 34)
$9M CLUB Option ($2.75M buyout)

Barnes only made 24 appearances due to injury, and has struggled to remain consistent for the better part of two seasons now.

Spotrac Estimated Market Value: $2.8M
Prediction: Miami declines the $9M option

Jon Berti (MIA, INF, 34)
$3.625m Club Option ($25k buyout)

Berti remains a do-it-all player for Miami, and could be headed toward Arbitration 3 this winter with a very nice resume under his belt. Instead, the Marlins should find plenty of value in his $3.6M salary for 2024.

Spotrac Estimated Market Value: $7.6M
Prediction: Miami exercises the $3.625M option

MILWAUKEE BREWERS

Mark Canha (MIL, OF, 35)
$11.5M Club Option ($2M buyout)

Canha was exceptional for Milwaukee (120 OPS+ in 50 games) after treading water with the Mets to start the 2023 campaign. His $11.5M option is very much a possibility for Milwaukee, but a multi-year contract extension could be as well.

Spotrac Estimated Market Value: $8.5M
Prediction: Milwaukee exercises the $11.5M option

Wade Miley (MIL, SP, 37)
$10m Mutual Option ($1M buyout)

Miley's put together one of his more efficient (and healthy) seasons of late (3.14 ERA, 2.52 WAR in 23 starts). The almost 37-year-old seems a shoe-in to exercise his end of this $10M, will Milwaukee do the same?

Spotrac Estimated Market Value: $8M
Prediction: Milwaukee declines the $10M option

Andrew Chafin (MIL, RP, 34)
$7.25M Club Option ($750k buyout)

Chafin was acquired at the deadline from Arizona, but struggled to keep runners off base down the stretch for Milwaukee. He’s about a $3.5M player in our system right now, so a leap to $7.25M for 2024 seems pricey.

Spotrac Estimated Market Value: $3.5M
Prediction: Milwaukee declines the $7.25M option

Justin Wilson (MIL, RP, 36)
$2.5M Club Option (no buyout)

Wilson’s 2023 was basically a wash as he recovered from Tommy John surgery, then battled a lat issue down the stretch.

Spotrac Estimated Market Value: Minimum
Prediction: Milwaukee declines the $2.5M option

MINNESOTA TWINS

Jorge Polanco (MIN, 3B, 29)
$10.5M Club Option ($1M buyout)

Polanco’s production has declined a bit in each of the past two seasons, but his value was on display down the stretch and into Minnesota’s postseason run. His $10.5M option aligns well with a current $11M valuation, making this a 50/50 call for the Twins.

Spotrac Estimated Market Value: $11M
Prediction: Minnesota exercises the $10.5M option

Max Kepler (MIN, OF, 31)
$10M Club Option ($1M buyout)

Kepler posted career highs in 2023 and was a major reason for the Twins 2023 success. A $1.5M raise for 2024 seems worthy.

Spotrac Estimated Market Value: $15M
Prediction: Minnesota exercises the $10M option

NEW YORK METS

Omar Narvaez (NYM, C, 32)
$7M Player Option

Narvaez was reduced to a role player in New York with the emergence of Francisco Alvarez, sinking his current valuation down to near $3M. Opting in seems a no brainer for him, but he’s a trade candidate this winter as well.

Spotrac Estimated Market Value: $2.8M
Prediction: Narvaez opts in to the $7M

Adam Ottavino (NYM, RP, 38)
$6.75M Player Option

The almost 38-year-old saw action in 65 games last season, and should be back in the fold for a middle reliever spot in 2024.

Spotrac Estimated Market Value: $4.8M
Prediction: Ottavino opts in to the $6.75M

Brooks Raley (NYM, RP, 36)
$6.5M Club Option ($1.25M buyout)

The lefty reliever carries a $7M valuation into the winter, and his $6.5M option represents a $2M raise over last season’s compensation. 

Spotrac Estimated Market Value: $7M
Prediction: The Mets exercise Raley’s $6.5M option

NEW YORK YANKEES

No option candidates

OAKLAND A’s

Drew Rucinski (OAK, SP, 35)
$5M Club Option (no buyout)

Rucinski gave up 18 earned runs in 18 innings before hitting the shelf with an MCL sprain. The A's have a chance to pay him $5M or nothing this winter. Let's all guess which one they'll choose.

Spotrac Estimated Market Value: Minimum
Prediction: Oakland declines the option

PHILADELPHIA PHILLIES

Scott Kingery (PHI, 2B, 30)
$13M Club Option ($1M buyout)

Kingery hasn't played a meaningful game for the Phillies since the 2020 season. This one is already stamped in red.

Spotrac Estimated Market Value: Minimum/Minor
Prediction: Philly declines the $13M option

PITTSBURGH PIRATES

Jarlin Garcia (PIT, RP, 31)
$3.25M Club Option (no buyout)

Garcia dealt with a nerve issue in his arm for the 2023 season, all but guaranteeing that Pittsburgh takes the free out on his club option this winter. Especially with no buyout attached to the decision.

Spotrac Estimated Market Value: $1M
Prediction: Pittsburgh declines the $3.25M option

SAN DIEGO PADRES

Nick Martinez (SDP, SP, 33)
2 years, $32M Club Option + conditions

The Padres have the opportunity to lock in Martinez at $16M per year over the next two seasons this fall. If they decline, Martinez garners back to back $8M player options instead. In both cases, the options must be decided on together (so 2 for $32M or 2 for $16M). While he posted career highs across the board in 2023, it’s still unlikely that San Diego locks in $32M on their end, putting the decision in Martinez’ hands.

Spotrac Estimated Market Value: $9M
Prediction: Both sides decline the options

Michael Wacha (SDP, SP, 33)
2 years, $32M Club Option + conditions

The Padres have the opportunity to lock in Wacha for the next 2 years at $32M with an exercise this fall. One can argue he just posted his best overall season to date, and now carries an $18M valuation in our system. If San Diego declines, the scenario converts to a 3 year, $18.5M player option that Wacha is sure to opt out of.

Spotrac Estimated Market Value: $18M
Prediction: San Diego exercises the 2 years, $32M

Seth Lugo (SDP, SP, 34)
$7.5M Player Option

Finally got a chance to start exclusively, and rewarded San Diego for it (115 ERA+, 1.81 WAR). The almost 34-year-old holds a near $10M valuation in our system, and will likely seek a multi-year guarantee this winter.

Spotrac Estimated Market Value: $9.8M
Prediction: Lugo declines the $7.5M option

Matt Carpenter (SDP, DH/1B, 38)
$5.5M Player Option

Carpenter didn’t come close to recreating the magic he created with the 2022 Yankees, making his $5.5M player option for 2024 a bit of a problem for the Padres. The almost 38-year-old will lock in this payday as quickly as possible. 

Spotrac Estimated Market Value: $2M
Prediction: Carpenter exercises the $5.5M option

SAN FRANCISCO GIANTS

Michael Conforto (SFG, OF, 31)
$18M Player Option

If the goal for Conforto was to prove he can be the player he was before his hamstring injuries, he did exactly that. His 2023 numbers finished up nearly identical to his 2021 production. Did he do enough to warrant a multi-year guarantee this winter? Probably, but the per year price tag won’t look a heck of a lot different than the $18M salary he needs to decide on with this option.

Spotrac Estimated Market Value: $16.1M
Prediction: Conforto opts out for a multi-year guarantee

Sean Manaea (SFG, SP/RP, 32)
$15M Player Option

Manaea was a bit of a jack of all trades, master of none, for the Giants in 2023, but he proved valuable from a reliability level down the stretch. $15M seems like a nice payday for him next season.

Spotrac Estimated Market Value: $12M
Prediction: Manaea exercises the $15M salary

Ross Stripling (SFG, SP, 34)
$15M Player Option

Stripling posted his worst statistical season in 3 years, and seems a lock to opt in to the $15M player option for 2024.  A nagging back issue should be cause for concern going forward.

Spotrac Estimated Market Value: $12.4M
Prediction: Stripling exercises the $15M salary

Alex Cobb (SFG, SP, 36)
$10M Club Option ($2M buyout)

Cobb has been one of the better values in baseball for the past 3 seasons (combined 6.55 WAR), so a $1M raise from $9M to $10M for 2024 is well within reason for San Francisco.

Spotrac Estimated Market Value: $15.4M
Prediction: San Francisco exercises the $10M option

SEATTLE MARINERS

No option candidates

ST. LOUIS CARDINALS

No option candidates

TAMPA BAY RAYS

No option candidates

TEXAS RANGERS

Max Scherzer (TEX, SP, 39)
$43,333,333 Player Option

Scherzer has already consented to opting in on this massive salary as part of the move from New York this August. That was of course going to be the case in any scenario however. The good news? New York is paying $20,833,334 of this salary, leaving a much more tenable $22,500,000 for the Rangers to take on in 2024.

Spotrac Estimated Market Value: $31.5M
Prediction: Scherzer exercises the $43.3M option

Andrew Heaney (TEX, SP, 33)
$13M Player Option ($500k buyout)

Heaney couldn’t match his strong 2022 campaign, but still proved to be viable and worthy of a rotation spot down the stretch. He seems a shoe-in to accept the $13M player option, but his calculated value does align nicely with that price point, so venturing into the open market to seek a multi-year guarantee isn’t out of the question here either.

Spotrac Estimated Market Value: $13.7M
Prediction: Heaney declines for a longer guarantee

Jose Leclerc (TEX, RP, 30)
$6.25M Club Option ($500k buyout)

Leclerc has blossomed into a devastating back end reliever for the Rangers, who exercised his $6M option for 2023 with ease, and should have no trouble tossing in a $250,000 raise for 2024 to do so again.

Spotrac Estimated Market Value: $10.6M
Prediction: Texas exercises the $6.25M option

TORONTO BLUE JAYS

Whit Merrifield (TOR, 2B, 35)
$18M Mutual Option ($500k buyout)

Merrifield posted nearly identical back to back seasons for Toronto in 2022 & 2023, but that production doesn’t approach a potential $18M salary for 2024. Toronto is largely expected to decline their end of this option, placing Merrifield back on the open market with a $6.5M valuation - not far off from the salary he just finished out in 2023 ($6.75M).

Spotrac Estimated Market Value: $6.5M
Prediction: Toronto declines the $18M option

Chad Green (TOR, RP, 33)
Multiple Conditions

It’s complicated. First and foremost, Toronto has the ability to exercise a 3 year, $27M extension at $9M per year through 2026. That seems highly unlikely right now. If/when declined, the scenario  converts to a 1 year, $6.25M player option for Green - which seems very likely to be exercised. If it’s not, Toronto then has the ability to exercise a 2 year, $21M extension at $10.5M per year - again, very unlikely. Green’s recovery from Tommy John should have him available by the start of the 2024 campaign, but he’ll be overpriced on that $6.25M salary if not.

Spotrac Estimated Market Value: $2.4M
Prediction: Green exercises his $6.25M player option

Yimi Garcia (TOR, RP, 33)
$6M Vested Option

His 2024 option was originally valued at $5m with a $1m buyout. Garcia needed 60 IP or appearances in 2023, OR 110 IP or appearances in 2022-23 combined to trigger a $6m Vesting option in his contract. He met all conditions and is guaranteed the full value of the previous option and buyout.

Spotrac Estimated Market Value: $5.8M
Result: $6M option easily vested

WASHINGTON NATIONALS

Victor Robles (WSH, OF, 27)
$3.3M Club Option (no buyout)

Despite a hopeful 2022 campaign, an injury plagued 2023 probably sealed the deal on Robles’ future in Washington. His $3.3M option isn’t overly expensive (especially in comparison to a $2.4M projection in arbitration next season), but the Nationals are likely to upgrade here no matter what. 

Spotrac Estimated Market Value: $2.4M (Arbitration 3)
Prediction: Option declined, player non-tendered