NBA Northwest Division Rotation and Roster Questions

Keith Smith, Resident NBA ExpertOctober 19, 2023

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The NBA preseason is here! Between the short training camp (compared to NFL or MLB) and the preseason games, it’s a chance for coaches and front offices to sort through their rotations and rosters. While the NBA features much smaller rosters than NFL or MLB, there are still decisions to be made. We’re going to go through the biggest rotation and roster decisions each team has ahead of them over the next week or so. We’ve already covered the Atlantic Division, Central Division, Southeast Division, Southwest Division and Pacific Division teams.

Denver Nuggets

Is backup point guard a problem? 

The Nuggets starting five is right up there with the best in the NBA. All five players complement each other well and there’s a good mix of offense and defense. Behind them, things get a little shakier. No more so than at backup point guard.

After Denver traded away Monte Morris, this spot was messy last year. Bones Hyland got the primary opportunity, and he was dealt away at the trade deadline, in part because he wasn’t meshing as hoped for. The Nuggets added Reggie Jackson after he worked a buyout, and he re-signed with the team this past offseason, but is Jackson really the answer behind Jamal Murray?

Jackson played in 16 regular season games with Denver last year and he struggled. Jackson couldn’t make shots and wasn’t very good on defense. By the time the playoffs rolled around, the 12-year veteran was only getting garbage time minutes.

The Nuggets gave Jackson the entirety of their $5 million Taxpayer MLE in free agency. That qualified as one of the summer’s more surprising signings. Most had Jackson pegged as a veteran minimum guy. It’s possible that Denver plussed up Jackson’s contract, in exchange for him waiving his ability to block a trade. If so, that makes a lot of sense. His contract could allow Denver to do some things they wouldn’t have been able to do otherwise in trades.

On the court, Jackson could bounce back. 16 games and 319 minutes is hardly a big sample size. And the prior couple of seasons, Jackson was pretty solid in a much bigger role than anyone could have predicted with the LA Clippers.

If Jackson can’t turn it around, Denver is pretty thin at the position. Rookie guard Jalen Pickett could probably give Denver some minutes. Pickett has good size for the position and he’s a solid playmaker. He was a very streaky shooter in college, and rookies are rarely ready defensively. But Pickett comes in as a five-year college player. So, he should be more ready than most rookies to play NBA minutes.

Collin Gillespie is back on a two-way deal, after missing his entire first year with an injury. But he shot it terribly at Summer League and hasn’t hit much better in the preseason. Gillespie’s college profile was that of a good shooter though, so we aren’t going to write him off yet.

In reality, Denver’s offense is different from any other in the NBA. Their primary playmaker is their center. Murray is a point guard in name only, as he makes most of his impact as a scorer and shooter. That lessens the needs for a high-end backup ballhandler. But if Murray needs rest, either in-game or for a night off, someone has to step up. Jackson will get the first opportunity, but don’t be surprised if Pickett ultimately snags the role as Murray’s backup.

What about the rest of the bench? 

Denver lost Bruce Brown, who was a key contributor to their title run. They also lost Jeff Green to the Houston Rockets, and Vlatko Cancar will miss this season after a torn ACL over the summer.

Christian Braun will step in as the replacement for Brown. Denver is high on Braun, and he got a lot of experience as a rotation guy on last season’s title team. He looks ready for a bigger role this year.

We covered the backup point guard spot above, but that leaves another forward spot open and a backup big man spot available. The Nuggets are poised to rely on younger players to fill both roles.

Peyton Watson has been the talk of the offseason, and he seems like he’ll get a shot at rotation minutes at the perimeter forward spot. Rookie first-rounder Julian Strawther has been terrific in the preseason, following a strong Summer League. Strawther is going to factor into the rotation sooner, rather than later. Those two will probably wage a head-to-head battle for minutes. Let the best defender, cutter and shooter win.

Behind Nikola Jokic, things are a lot more in question. DeAndre Jordan re-signed for another run, but he’s more of a locker room presence than an on-court one. If pressed into action, Jordan will provide some rugged defense, rebounding and solid screening. But Jordan’s career is closer to the end than his productive prime years.

The Nuggets would love for Zeke Nnaji to seize the backup five role. His shooting ability would be a nice fit on the second unit. But last season was a mess for Nnaji. He battled injuries and some really shaky shooting. Denver needs to see him return to the form of his first two seasons before they can feel good about running him out on the floor for 15 minutes a night.

Justin Holiday was signed to provide some veteran depth, and a shooting presence. He’ll step in if one of the younger wings isn’t quite ready for their role. The Nuggets are also high on Hunter Tyson, who was drafted in the second round. He might see some minutes too, akin to the situations that Strawther and Jalen Pickett are in.

Mostly, if no one steps forward, look for Calvin Booth to swing a trade to fill a hole. It might mean moving on from a younger player or two, but such is life when you’re on top and everyone is trying to take you down.

Minnesota Timberwolves

How will the perimeter rotation shake out? 

The Wolves starting group is set with Anthony Edwards and Mike Conley in the backcourt and Karl-Anthony Towns, Rudy Gobert and Jaden McDaniels up front. Behind them, Minnesota has talent, but it might take a bit for roles to become defined. Nowhere is that truer than on the perimeter.

Nickeil Alexander-Walker is back, and he’ll grab one wing/guard spot. Newcomers Troy Brown Jr. and Shake Milton will be in the mix too. Given teams generally start with an expanded rotation, it’s likely all three will play minutes in the early part of the season. Naz Reid and Kyle Anderson are entrenched as the frontcourt backups.

The real question is if Jordan McLaughlin (in and out of the rotation in his four seasons in Minnesota) or Wendell Moore (coming off a forgettable rookie season) can steal rotation roles. McLaughlin is more of a pure point guard than either Alexander-Walker or Milton. Moore needs to make shots to have a chance at seeing some wing minutes. Finally, keep an eye on Josh Minott. He’s got a really intriguing mix of skill and size. He did some things on the G League level that could project to NBA production. He’s a sleeper rotation candidate to watch.

Who is the backup point guard? 

We touched on this above, but we’ll expand on it here. This is basically a three-way, and really a two-way, battle between Nickeil Alexander-Walker, Shake Milton and Jordan McLaughlin.

Alexander-Walker spent the first few seasons of his career as a theoretical big point guard. He never quite fit that mold though, and it took until last season for him to really find a foothold in the league. Alexander-Walker leaned into being a 3&D player, who could also do some secondary ballhandling. The Wolves seem to see him more in that role, so we’ll take Alexander-Walker out of the mix behind Mike Conley.

Jordan McLaughlin is the holdover. After flashing late in his pandemic-shortened rookie season, McLaughlin snagged a rotation role in his second year. Unfortunately, each of the last two seasons have seen him backslide some. McLaughlin stopped making his outside shots, in addition to battling a midseason injury last season. If he starts making jumpers again, McLaughlin will use his combination of playmaking ability and pesky defense to force his way back on the floor.

Milton is kind of an opposite of McLaughlin. He’s got more size and he’s a better shooter. But he’s only a so-so playmaker and his defense has never really been more than passable. Milton brings the added benefit of being able to play on the wing, where McLaughlin is more of an on-ball guard.

The guess here is that Milton gets sort of the first crack, as his shooting ability can help open up the floor Anthony Edwards and the Wolves big man. But McLaughlin will crack the rotation at some point. He just makes thing happen. And if McLaughlin makes shots, he’ll be hard to take out of the mix.

Oklahoma City Thunder

What is the rotation going to look like? 

Mark Daigneault used his first two seasons as Oklahoma City head coach perfectly. He experimented with lineups and player combinations relentlessly. Even last year, when the Thunder were ahead of schedule as far as being a competitive team, Daigneault kept testing and adjusting his rotation and groupings.

Now, Oklahoma City is here (but hot HERE here just yet) and there are some expectations for this group. That likely means there isn’t as much room for experimentation. But that’s not really a problem. Daigneault knows what talent he has now.

The starting five appears set. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is a star, Jalen Williams (the wing one) is headed in that direction. Josh Giddey’s funky slashing, do-a-little-of-everything game just fits, while Lu Dort is the team’s perimeter stopper. Chet Holmgren joins them for his delayed rookie season. If preseason is any example, he’s the fifth finger in a pretty well-fit glove.

Behind those five, things are more unsettled. Jaylin Williams (the big one) will be Holmgren’s backup when he gets back from a what seems to be a minor injury. Kenrich Williams is going to find his way on the floor, because he’s too impactful not to. Presumably, Vasilije Micic didn’t come over to sit on the bench, so he’ll snag a backup guard role. And Isaiah Joe brings deadeye shooting to a roster short on that skill.

Maybe it’s that simple. That’s Daigneault’s nine-man rotation. But something says that’s shortsighted. Too many other guys are simply too good to just be completely out of the mix

Ousmane Dieng is all limbs and potential. He’s going to factor in, if for no other reason so OKC can see what they have him. Dieng had some nice games over the final quarter of his rookie season, and the Thunder will want to see if that carries over.

Aaron Wiggins might not jump out at you right away, but if you take a deeper look, you’ll find a lot to like. Wiggins will unleash the occasional highlight jam, but he’s more than that. Wiggins is a good finisher around the rim, and he knocked down 39.3% of his threes last season. He’s also a competitive defender. It’s hard to see him getting completely shelved.

Tre Mann and rookie Cason Wallace are going to put pressure on Micic for backup guard minutes. Mann took a step back with a less consistent role in his second season than he had in his rookie year. But he can still score, and there’s a playmaker in there that’s ready to break out. Wallace is your typical Kentucky guard. He’s a little shaky on offense, but you get the feeling he can do more than he showed while in college. And you love the toughness, the defensive tenacity and the willingness to mix it up on the boards, despite a lack of size. He just screams that he’ll find his way on the floor eventually.

If we count in the top-nine guys and combine them with Dieng, Wiggins, Mann and Wallace, we’re already at 13 guys. And we haven’t even touched on Davis Bertans (a prototypical Thunder reclamation project) and Aleksej Pokusevski (currently injured and in danger of becoming an unrealized project).

In a very real sense, Oklahoma City has 15 guys who can play. That’s incredible considering this team was torn down to the studs just a couple of years ago. But the days of all 15 guys playing somewhat regularly, because the team was mixing and matching game to game, are over. Look for the top-nine we called out to be the regulars, with the others slotting in as matchups, injuries or ineffectiveness open up minutes.

That means Mark Daigneault might be having some difficult conversations, but he’s up for it. And, more importantly, minutes will be fully earned on this team moving forward. That’s an exciting place for a franchise to be in as they go from rebuilding to competing.

Who gets cut? 

The Thunder have taken care of this to some extent throughout the course of the offseason. They moved on from Usman Garuba and TyTy Washington, after acting as a clearinghouse for their contracts this summer. Both have potential, but the rest of the league wasn’t as all over either player as suggested, as both Garuba and Washington are on two-way deals now.

Oklahoma City further cleaned things up by trading Victor Oladipo (really his $9.45 million contract) and Jeremiah Robinson-Earl to the Houston Rockets. In exchange, the Thunder waive Kevin Porter Jr. and ate his contract, while picking up two more future second-round picks for Sam Presti’s stash. Oladipo might have been an easy cut, but Robinson-Earl has played real minutes for the Thunder and they might not wanted to have moved on simply by waiving him.

That leaves one tough cut to make. At this point, it looks like Jack White could be the one on the outside looking in. The Thunder thought highly enough of White to give him $600,000 in guaranteed money this summer. Maybe the thought was that something would open up to keep him around. As of this writing, that hasn’t happened. It’s hard to see the team waiving anyone else.

Maybe, and it’s a major maybe, the team is ready to move on from Aleksej Pokusevski. The developmental minutes that Pokusevski needs no longer seem available. He also doesn’t seem to be in line for a contract extension. If the Thunder are done waiting on his potential, Poku’s days could be numbered.

We’ll guess it’s White, which is somewhat unfortunate. His guarantee is too large for him to play for Oklahoma City’s G League affiliate. That means White will be off elsewhere for next season. But it just seems like the team won’t ties with Pokusevski…yet.

Portland Trail Blazers

Who is the fifth starter? 

Four starting spots are spoken for in Portland. Scoot Henderson and Anfernee Simons are going to start in the backcourt. Deandre Ayton and Jerami Grant are starting up front. That means the wing spot is up for grabs.

Shaedon Sharpe has the most long-term potential, but that would leave the Blazers starting three guards. That means they’ll be undersized and lacking some defense. A lineup of Henderson, Simons, Sharpe, Grant and Ayton will hopefully see lots of minutes, but it might not open games.

That means Matisse Thybulle is probably the best bet to start games. He’s easily the best defensive player on the roster. Yes, that’s a low bar to clear, but Thybulle leaps over it with ease anyway. And in 22 games with Portland, Thybulle shot 38.8% on 3.9 three-point attempts per game. That’s really, really intriguing.

The defense will probably get Thybulle the first crack at the starting spot, but the shooting will keep him in it. If he regresses as a shooter, and defenses start making things too hard on Ayton to work in the paint and to easy to collapse on Henderson drives, Sharpe might wedge his way in there.

There’s also a slight chance that Chauncy Billups might want to go big and will start Robert Williams next to Ayton, while pushing Grant to the three. That’s worth experimenting with, but probably not as a starting group. That would really shrink the floor a lot, and that makes life harder than it needs to be on Henderson and Simons to get the offensive moving. But for a few minutes here and there, it’s worth checking out.

One last thing to keep an eye on, but further down the line: Sharpe starting over Simons. There are some who believe that Simons best role on a winning team will be as a high-volume sixth man. Think Jamal Crawford or Lou Williams. This space isn’t going to tell you that Simons should go to the bench. We’re big fans of his. But if Portland wants to experiment late in a lottery season, they could give it a shot.

Could the bench be a strength? 

Either Shaedon Sharpe or Matisse Thybulle is going to come off the bench. We’re guessing Robert Williams will do the same. Malcolm Brogdon is going to play too, for however long he’s in Portland. Kris Murray has some potential as a ready-to-play rookie, and Jabari Walker flashed at times as a rookie.

Even if it’s just the Sharpe/Thybulle non-starter, Williams and Brogdon that contribute as reserves, that’s pretty good. That’s better than some playoff teams will feature. There’s even a chance that we could see Portland’s starting group bleed points, while the backups come in and cut into leads. Both lineups are built for that sort of potential.

If nothing else, on the nights when the Blazers starters do hand off a lead, the bench shouldn’t immediately hand it back. That’s always a positive on a young team, as it keeps from frustration creeping in. Frustration with holding leads often ends up in younger players taking on a Thanos-like approach of “Fine. I’ll do it myself.” And that never leads anywhere good, whether it be for young players or Thanos.

Utah Jazz

What does the guard rotation look like? 

The Utah Jazz have a lot of guys who can play. For a team in Year 2 of a rebuild, Utah is pretty well stocked. Most know the frontcourt is deep in options, but the guard group is actually even more of an open competition.

After Mike Conley was traded at the deadline, the most-common starting guards were Jordan Clarkson and Talen Horton-Tucker. They are both back, as is Collin Sexton, who suffered through an injury-plagued season. Kris Dunn, who experience a major career rejuvenation, is also returning. That’s already four-deep, but there’s more.

Ochai Agbaji is a pure wing, but most of his minutes came at the two, as part of jumbo-sized lineups. And Keyonte George looks like he’s going to make it very hard to keep him off the floor as a rookie.

If we take Agbaji out of the mix and assume he’ll see more minutes at the three this year, that’s still five guys for four spots. Injuries might open up minutes for someone, but this a delicate situation for Will Hardy to sort through.

Horton-Tucker is on an expiring deal, as is Dunn. They’re both going to want chances to show what they can do. Sexton has three years left on his contract, and Clarkson added two years to his deal too.  That makes them at least somewhat a part of the longer-term future in Utah. It’s also safe to assume the Jazz are going to want to see what they have in George at some point.

It’s been rumored that teams have called on Horton-Tucker. Moving him could add to Danny Ainge’s already overflowing treasure chest of draft picks, while opening up minutes in the backcourt. After four years, it’s clear that Horton-Tucker is a solid all-around player, but he’s a “jack of all trades, master of none” guy. And his lack of shooting won’t allow him to play the on-ball minutes he needs on a good team. If someone has to move out of the rotation, and Dunn’s offense from last season carries over, Horton-Tucker makes sense as the odd man out.

For now, Hardy can keep mixing and matching, while spotting guys rest days here and there. But that will wear thin relatively quickly. Figuring out which guards complement a talented frontcourt long-term is near the top of the to-do list for this season.

Will the rookies get to play? 

We touched on it above with Keyonte George, but it’s going to be just as hard for Taylor Hendricks and Brice Sensabaugh to find minutes. It’s no longer a guarantee in the NBA that first-round-pick status means you get entitlement minutes. Teams don’t function that way anymore, unless they are really bad, or at the end of a lost season.

That means George, Hendricks and Sensabaugh will have earned any minutes they get. That’s not a bad thing, as you want to them to have to compete from Day 1. But young players, who have been stars or main cogs for their entire lives, can get frustrated if they are sitting game after game.

We already covered how George will have to fight his way through a crowded guard group. If Hendricks wants to play, he’ll have to show that he can do it at the three. Walker Kessler will play all of his minutes at the five, but the four will feature some combination of John Collins (in the big starting group), Lauri Markkanen (in smaller, more traditional lineups) and Kelly Olynyk (when he’s not backing up Kessler). That leaves very little room for Hendricks to play what looks like his natural position.

But if Hendricks can defend on the perimeter enough, shoot it well enough and do a little bit of ballhandler, he can find minutes behind Markkanen at the three. Because he missed Summer League with an injury, we’ve only seen some small preseason glimpses of Hendricks. He very much remains a mystery box.

As for Sensabaugh, it’s hard to see how he’ll see many minutes as a rookie. He’s played even less than Hendricks. Barring something unexpected, it’s a good bet that Sensabaugh sees more minutes in the G League than the NBA this season.

Again, it’s not a bad thing if the Jazz rookies aren’t gifted minutes right out of the gate. But if you were expecting to see immediate fruits from this draft class, you’re going to be disappointed. There’s a good deal of ripening that will need to happen, maybe even a full season’s worth. But it should pay off with three good players that can fill rotation holes as the roster evolves over the next few years.