Taking the Pulse of the Top 12 NFL QB Contracts

Michael Ginnitti
Michael Ginnitti, Managing Editor & NFL/MLB ExpertOctober 23, 2023
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Taking the Pulse on Massive QB Contracts

The NFL is as much a “quarterback league” as it's ever been, but while players continue to lock into massive contracts every spring and summer, that doesn’t always necessarily translate to immediate (or sustainable) success on the field. Our snapshot look at the 12 largest QB contracts currently on the books, how they fare in terms of future stability, and their respective team’s outlook for 2023.

Patrick Mahomes

The current MVP favorite (+260) agreed to a restructure to his massive contract this September that moved up around $44M of cash into the next few seasons. All $44.5M of his 2024 compensation + $32.35M from 2025 is currently fully guaranteed, and everyone is just fine with that. The Chiefs enter Week 8 as the AFC #1 Seed.

Joe Burrow

Signed a 5 year, $275M extension in September that carries $146.5M fully guaranteed through 2025 out of the gate, with early triggers for 2026 & 2027 that all but lock in $219M. Health tempered the start to his 2023 season, but he looked as good as ever in Week 6. Despite that, Cincy’s playoff chances hover around 30%, as they find themselves “on the bubble” behind Houston & the Jets (if you can believe it).

Justin Herbert

Signed a 5 year, $262.5M extension in July that carries $133.7M fully guaranteed through 2025 out of the gate, with early triggers in 2026, 2027, & 2028 that lock in over $218M. The 2-4 Chargers are sliding down the standings this season, and could be staring down yet another coach/strategy change with Herbert under center. LAC carries a less than 10% chance to make the postseason, currently ranked 14th in the AFC (ahead of only the Patriots and Broncos).

Lamar Jackson

Lamar’s 5 year, $260M contract looks about as good as any out there right now, as the 26 year old has been as advertised through 7 weeks. He’s mostly guaranteed through 2025 right now, with all of $208M through 2026 guaranteeing early over the next few Marches. Baltimore is a Top 5 playoff team heading into Week 8, currently sitting as the #3 seed in the AFC.

Josh Allen

Allen’s 8 year, $284.5M total value contract still seems like a steal for Buffalo, all things considered. He’s fully guaranteed through 2024 & ½ guaranteed through 2025 at $55M right now, with another $10M set to lock in next March. The Bills could potentially consider options on this contract after the 2025 season however. Buffalo’s playoff chances slipped into the 50s with a Week 7 loss in NE, and they hold the 2nd hardest schedule the rest of the way.

Jalen Hurts

It’s good to be in Philly. Hurts’ new deal holds full guarantees through 2026 out of the gate, with nearly $180M practically locked in through 2027. The Eagles now hold the top NFC spot heading toward Week 8, and Hurts is a Top 3 MVP candidate.

Russell Wilson

Just a reminder that Russ could be earning $27M on an expiring contract from Denver this season. Instead, it’s $28M, with $39M more fully guaranteed through 2024, and another $37M set to lock in March 17th. It’s been a much better 2023 than 2022 for Wilson, and he’s hardly Denver’s biggest problem, but money talks loudest. The Broncos sit in the cellar of the AFC currently.

Kyler Murray

Still rehabbing his 2022 knee injury, Murray seems to be in line to return to his starting gig for the foreseeable future. He’s already fully guaranteed through 2024 at $35M, and there are early vesting triggers on every salary and roster bonus through 2027 thereafter. If Murray doesn’t return to form, this contract is going to be a problem for a while. Arizona currently resides at 15th in the NFC, with only 0-6 Carolina in a worse spot.

Deshaun Watson

The real reason we’re having this conversation, as Watson’s injury and overall lackluster play as a whole seems to be nearing surface. This contract remains “in a room over there” when attempting to compare it to anything else, because of the gravity of the deal in combination with how it came to fruition in the first place. But it’s here, it’s real, and it’s spectacular, so it’s important to dissect it whenever necessary. As the season turns to Week 8, this contract holds $138.66M remaining on it - fully guaranteed. Any thoughts of a trade after 2023 must include $62.9M of dead cap for Cleveland, and $138M fully guaranteed transferring to the new team. It’s wild stuff.

Daniel Jones

Jones’ 4 year, $160M contract was always going to be a 2 year, $82M contract until it wasn’t. His $36M salary for 2024 is already fully guaranteed, and everything thereafter is in a pay-as-you-go structure. The Giants are now 13th in the NFC, and trending toward a last place finish in the NFC East.

Matthew Stafford

Fully guaranteed through 2024 at $31M, another $10M from 2025 locks in next March. This situation has calmed down nicely. There’s a pretty real world where the Rams buyout that $10M and move on before 2025, especially with Aaron Donald, Cooper Kupp (and likely Sean McVay) all very questionable to be in the mix at that stage. The Rams find themselves just outside the playoff picture heading toward Week 8, with the 16th toughest schedule the rest of the way.

Dak Prescott

Dak has a $5M roster bonus due March 17th, but that’s somewhat inconsequential to the greater story here. Will Prescott get the 2023 Kirk Cousins treatment (no extension, convert salary/roster bonus into signing bonus to lower the cap hit, but keep him on expiring contract), or will Dallas give Dak the 2018-22 Kirk Cousins treatment (small, guaranteed extension to lower the current cap without taking on too much weight down the road). It’s a pretty big 11 weeks in Dallas, who remain in the playoff picture (#6 in the NFC), but also hold the 8th hardest schedule down the stretch.


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