Notable MLB Trade Candidates

Michael Ginnitti & Dan Soemann
Michael Ginnitti & Dan SoemannOctober 31, 2023
© Rick Osentoski-USA TODAY Sports

With the MLB offseason upon us, teams will soon be able to utlize the trade as a way to formulate 40-man rosters, clear payroll, and of course, improve themselves for the 2024 season. Spotrac has identified a player or two from each current roster that could be in discussions this winter, including any financial ramifications associated.

Arizona Diamondbacks

Jake McCarthy (OF, 26)

Arizona boasts a surplus of young talent in their outfield, and are almost guaranteed to bring in some form of veteran presence to bolster the position group this winter as well. McCarthy has one more year of pre-arbitration status, then projects to begin a 4-year arbitration track through the 2028 season. He’s already shown an ability to hang at this level (2.6 WAR in 100 2022 games), so this could be a splashy pickup for a team in need.

Atlanta Braves

AJ Smith-Shawver (SP, 21)

The former 7th round pick flew up the minor track last year, finding his way to 5 MLB starts for Atlanta down the stretch. Is this a real progression, or more fool’s gold? If Atlanta thinks they can sell high on a 21-year-old arm, look for them to pick up the phone. Otherwise, injuries already have this rotation in shambles, so every available option will be needed.

Also: Vaughn Grissom (SS, 23)

Baltimore Orioles

Jorge Mateo (SS, 29)

The Orioles are flush with young infield talent, putting the final 2 years of Mateo’s arbitration track on notice. His role was greatly reduced in 2023 after a breakout 2022 campaign (3.26 WAR).
Also: Anthony Santander (OF, 29); Tyler Wells (SP, 29)

Boston Red Sox

Alex Verdugo (OF, 28)

One of the main pieces in the unspeakable Mookie Betts trade is set to enter his third and final arbitration season in 2024, Verdugo has posted almost identical back-to-back-to-back seasons for Boston. He projects to eclipse the $9M mark next season, and Boston may not be in a position to keep many expiring contracts around
Also: Nick Pivetta (SP, 31)

Chicago Cubs

Drew Smyly (SP, 35)

It’s never good to shop a player coming off of a 4-year-low production season, but a change of scenery for Smyly might make sense for everyone here. The Cubs may need to pay down much of his $13M remaining ($10.5M in 2024 + a $2.5M buyout for 2025), but shedding a little cash make sense here if possible.

Chicago White Sox

Dylan Cease (SP, 28)

Cease couldn’t follow up a phenomenal 2022 in any capacity (4.58 ERA, 1.4 WHIP in 2023), but he remains a strikeout machine (3 straight 200+ seasons). With two years of arbitration still ahead, he’s in the perfect spot for Chicago to flip him for a sizable return. If they don’t believe they can build a winner around him - now is the time to strike.

Also: Michael Kopech (SP, 28); Yoan Moncada (3B, 29)

Cincinnati Reds

Jonathan India (2B, 27)

India filled up the stat board again in 2023, and his projected Arbitration 1 salary ($3.2M) isn’t too hot to handle for the Reds. With that said, the youth movement is officially here in Cincinnati with the likes of Christian Encarnacion-Strand, Elly De La Cruz, Matt McLain, & Spencer Steer ready to take over both this infield - and the lineup as a whole. With 3 years of term still ahead of him, India should fetch Cincy a really nice haul this winter.

Cleveland Guardians

Shane Bieber (SP, 29)

The 2020 Cy Young winner is entering the final season of arbitration in 2024, set to become a free agent next winter. Did Cleveland wait too long to move on? Maybe, but there are plenty of contenders (NY, NY, LAD, ATL, BAL to name a few) thirsty for ready-made top of the rotation starters right now. He’s on track for a $22M-$25M per year contract in the coming months.

Also: James Karinchak (RP, 28); Cal Quantrill (SP, 29)

Colorado Rockies

None. The Rockies traded 5 players at this past summer’s deadline, doing their dirty work for the winter early. Arm injuries to German Marquez & Antonio Senzatela likely have this front office reeling a bit for the upcoming season. This may be a pretty quiet team for most of 2024.

Detroit Tigers

Javier Baez (SS, 31)

This one is complicated, as Baez has the ability to opt out of the remaining 4 years, $98M of his contract. However, he also just posted his worst full season to date, becoming a legitimate liability at the plate for Detroit last year. Defensively, he’s still a marvel at times, so there’s a world where a contending team with middle infield woes wants a player such as Baez, as long as they have enough firepower to protect him in the batting lineup (Atlanta for instance). Assuming Baez opts-in, the Tigers may be inclined to pay down this contract in order to move it this winter.

Houston Astros

Framber Valdez (SP, 29)

Valdez began 2023 looking every bit the consistently great pitcher he’s been for Houston since 2021. But he faltered down the stretch, and was a liability come postseason time for the Astros. He holds two more arbitration seasons, including a projected $12.8M salary for 2024, so the time to shop is now, but it may be a bit of a sell low move for Houston this winter.

Kansas City Royals

Brady Singer (SP, 27)

Another example of a player who was on the fast track to an extension after 2022 (4.46 WAR), but really took a large step back in 2023 (5.52 ERA, 0.3 WAR in 29 starts). With 3 more years of arbitration still ahead of him, there’s no reason for KC to rush with any move, but KC is looking for a core to move forward with, and Singer may no longer be in the running.

Also: Salvador Perez (C, 33)

Los Angeles Angels

Patrick Sandoval (SP, 27)

Sandoval battled injuries in 2023, but he also looked a lot like the middling pitcher he came into the league as. The Angels aren’t in any position to be giving up on potential starting pitching, but snagging some trade value out of Sandoval - who had a fantastic 2022 - while it still exists could be smart business.

Also: Mike Trout (OF, 32)

Los Angeles Dodgers

Austin Barnes (C, 34)

Barnes posted a team-low -1.2 WAR for 2023, posting an OPS under .500 in 60 games. With that said, he’s still considered to be a viable backup catcher, and his $3.5M price tag for 2024 isn’t terribly daunting. Will Smith and top prospect Diego Cartaya likely break camp as the Dodgers’ backstop options.

 

Miami Marlins

Trevor Rogers (SP, 26)

Rogers can be lumped in with a few starting arms in the Marlins’ organization (Edward Cabrera to name one), as an area where the team can afford to get a little lighter in exchange for offense. Like many of the names on this list, Rogers hasn’t been able to recreate 1 fabulous season (2021 in his case), with an arm injury largely to blame for this past season’s numbers (4 ERA, 0.29 WAR). A change of scenery could reinvigorate his career, and three years of arbitration ahead of him should be attractive to teams in need.

Milwaukee Brewers

Corbin Burnes (SP, 29)

Burnes has now posted 3-straight 200 K seasons, 3-straight 3.5 WAR seasons, and is entering a 3rd and final arbitration season in 2024, projecting to cost around $14M. Offseason shoulder surgery for Brandon Woodruff could give Milwaukee reason to dial plans back a bit, which could mean moving their ace for the right trade package (Baltimore is on the clock). He projects to a 6 year, $150M extension in our system currently.
Also: Willy Adames (SS, 28)

Minnesota Twins

Kyle Farmer (INF, 33)

To be fair here the Twins don’t have a clear cut trade candidate, as their payroll contains an excellent balance of young and expensive right now. But it seems like they’re one legitimate “starter” away from really taking that next step, so moving on from a few depth pieces in order to acquire that next man up could be in store here. Farmer projects to a $6.2M salary for his last arbitration season.

New York Mets

Starling Marte (OF, 35)

Marte has battled injuries for the better part of two seasons in NY, and carries a massive $39M guaranteed over the next two years. The Mets haven’t been shy about paying down contracts to free up roster spots, but age, injury history, and contract aren’t on their side here.
Also: D.J. Stewart (OF, 30); Pete Alonso (1B, 29)

New York Yankees

Anthony Rizzo (1B, 34)

Rizzo battled concussion symptoms for the final two months of 2023, and was a shell of himself offensively for the four months that preceded it. The Yankees would be selling low here, and they probably have to pay down a significant portion of Rizzo’s $20M salary for 2024, but it seems like something needs to give on this current roster, and this might be the easier of the evils.

Also: Gleyber Torres (INF, 27)

Oakland Athletics

Paul Blackburn (SP, 30)

Blackburn holds 2 more years of arbitration, so he’s in the sweet spot for any team (let alone Oakland) to consider taking trade offers. He’s posted back to back strong seasons on the mound around poor A’s teams, putting him in line to be the next solid player to be developed and flipped by this organization. The 30-year-old projects to a $3.5M salary for 2024.

Philadelphia Phillies

Edmundo Sosa (INF, 27)

Sosa’s probably a career role player from here out, and his power numbers actually improved in 2023, but Philadelphia will be looking to improve their depth pieces this offseason (because they’re starting 9 is fairly rock solid), so swapping out Sosa for a young player or two to free up a roster spot for an incoming free agent seems right.

Pittsburgh Pirates

Mitch Keller (SP, 28)

Keller stormed out of the gate in 2023, putting himself in conversations with some of the games best. Things fell back to earth a bit as the summer came around, but he still finished the campaign with career numbers across the board, including 210 strikeouts & a 2.85 WAR. His salary likely jumps near the $7M next season, with another arbitration year still to follow thereafter. Pittsburgh is likely listening here, but it’s not a requirement that they move on (yet).

Also: David Bednar (RP, 29)

San Diego Padres

Juan Soto (OF, 25)

Juan Soto just turned 25 in mid-October, and is headed toward his 4th and final arbitration season in 2024 (projected to garner a salary at or around the $30M mark). The Boras Corp. client is likely destined for free agency next winter no matter what happens in the coming months, but it’s no secret that the Padres are fielding phone calls here, and that the big names are the ones calling. He projects to a 12 year, $400M contract in our system currently.

Also: Trent Grisham (OF, 27); 

San Francisco Giants

Mike Yastrzemski (OF, 33)

The Giants seem like a team that had to revert to Plan B in many areas last season. Will they counter this offseason with a spending spree? If so, look for former core players like Yastremski, who projects to a $6.5M salary in his second to last arbitration season, to be shopped in exchange.

Seattle Mariners

Dylan Moore (UTIL, 31)

Moore’s usage in Seattle has been on a downward trend since 2020, but the Mariners chose to buy out the rest of his arbitration (+1 free agent season) on a 3 year, $8.875M extension last February. While cost isn’t necessarily an issue here, this feels like a contract better served on a team willing to utilize his versatility - freeing up a roster spot for a Mariners team looking to push more into contention.

St. Louis Cardinals

Tyler O'Neill (OF, 28)

The Cardinals have had a surplus in the outfield for awhile now, and have now paid O’Neill nearly $9M across the past two seasons for minimal production. He’s entering a third and final arbitration season in 2024, projected to earn around $5.5M, and should be on the move this winter.

Tampa Bay Rays

Tyler Glasnow (SP, 30)

When he’s healthy, he’s a sub-3.50 ERA, 11 strikeouts per 9 innings top of the rotation pitcher. But health hasn’t been on his side at any point in time over the past 7 seasons. Combine that with a $25M salary for 2024 (about $15M more than Tampa likes to pay anyone), and the writing seems to be on the wall here.

Also: Manuel Margot (OF, 29); Vidal Brujan (2B, 26)

Texas Rangers

Ezequiel Duran (INF, 25)

Duran was one of the Yankees better prospect when NY moved him to Texas for Joey Gallo back in 2021. He showed flashes off power/production this year in a limited role, but doesn’t appear to have a track to more opportunities with Corey Seager & Marcus Semien blocking his path for the foreseeable future.
Also: Leodys Taveras (OF, 25)

Toronto Blue Jays

Danny Jansen (C, 28)

Jansen projects to a $5.1M salary for 2024, his final arbitration season, coming off a year that saw career numbers in many areas (17 HRs, 15 2Bs, 53 RBIs). He’ll remain a platoon player behind Alejandro Kirk in this system, but could vie for a starting role in a better situation.

Also: Cavan Biggio (2B, 29); Santiago Espinal (3B, 29)

Washington Nationals

Dominic Smith (1B, 29)

Smith might be trending more toward a non-tender candidate than a trade option, but a fairly strong finish at the plate did lift his numbers into a somewhat respectable position (21 2Bs, 12 HRs, 0.89 WAR). He’s a depth piece at best, and his $5M+ projected salary for his 3rd and final arbitration will be too steep for most, but maybe there’s a fit out there.
Also: Patrick Corbin (SP, 34)


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