Pacers Acquire Pascal Siakam

Keith Smith
Keith Smith, Resident NBA ExpertJanuary 17, 2024
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#nba #nba trade deadline #indiana pacers #toronto raptors #new orleans pelicans #bruce brown jr. #pascal siakam #jordan nwora #kira lewis jr.
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NBA trade season is off to a raucous start! The upstart Indiana Pacers made a major move by acquiring Pascal Siakam from the Toronto Raptors. This move should put Indiana firmly in the mix for homecourt advantage in the Eastern Conference playoffs, after a three-year playoff drought. At the end of December, Toronto had traded OG Anunoby to the New York Knicks for RJ Barrett and Immanuel Quickly. Now, Masai Ujiri and his front office staff are continuing the reshaping of the Raptors roster around Scottie Barnes. This deal also includes the New Orleans Pelicans, as they have made a tax-avoidance trade. In actuality, this will end up being two separate trades.

Trade 1:
Indiana Pacers acquire: Kira Lewis Jr., least favorable 2024 second-round pick from the Pelicans or Bulls
New Orleans Pelicans acquire: Cash Considerations

Trade 2:
Indiana Pacers acquire: Pascal Siakam
Toronto Raptors acquire: Bruce Brown, Kira Lewis Jr., Jordan Nwora, 2024 Pacers first-round pick, least favorable 2024 first-round pick from the Rockets (5-30), Clippers, Thunder or Jazz (11-30), 2026 Pacers first-round pick

Since the Pacers are acquiring Lewis with cap space, they will be able to reaggregate him in the trade to the Raptors immediately. Let’s dive into what it these trades mean for each team!

Indiana Pacers

Incoming salary: $37.9 million in 2023-24

Outgoing salary: $30.7 million in 2023-24

The Pacers are off to a 23-17 start and looking to break a three-year streak of missing the playoffs. With Pascal Siakam in the fold, Indiana can start thinking even bigger. Indiana is in a battle with the Cleveland Cavaliers, New York Knicks, Miam Heat and Orlando Magic for the fourth through eighth position in the Eastern Conference. This trade should put the Pacers near the top of that group, which would mean homecourt advantage.

All season long, the Pacers have made it work at the power forward position. They tried Obi Toppin for 28 games, but it never quite fit perfectly. Indiana then reverted back to the four-smalls around Myles Turner looks they had some success with last year, but that isn’t ideal either. In recent weeks, Jalen Smith has stepped in as the second big next to Turner, but that look leaves Pacers less versatile than they want. Enter Siakam. And not just for the second half of this season, either.

There’s already been reporting that Siakam is thrilled with the trade to Indiana and will look to re-sign with the Pacers this offseason. Let’s pause from the on-court analysis to take a look at what Siakam’s next contract could look like. Because of this trade, Siakam is limited to extending with Indiana for no more than is allowable by the extend-and-trade rules. That would look like this:

  • 2024-25: $39,788,078
  • 2025-26: $41,777,482
  • Total: two years, $81,565,560

In the summer, the Pacers will have full Bird Rights for Siakam. That means they’ll be able to offer him a five-year max deal that looks like this:

  • 2024-25: $42,600,000
  • 2025-26: $46,008,000
  • 2026-27: $49,416,000
  • 2027-28: $52,824,000
  • 2028-29: $56,232,000
  • Total: five years, $247,080,000

That’s the 30% of the cap maximum with 8% raises. If Siakam was to leave for another team, his max deal would look like this:

  • 2024-25: $42,600,000
  • 2025-26: $44,730,000
  • 2026-27: $46,860,000
  • 2027-28: $48,990,000
  • Total: four years, $183,180,000

That’s starting at the same 30% of the cap maximum, but with 5% raises and capped at a four-year deal.

 

The extension option feels a bit light for Siakam, especially in terms of years. The full max seems a bit much for the Pacers. The guess here is that he’ll get some form of four-year deal that pays him in the range of $180 to $190 million. That gets Siakam close to, or more than, the max he could get from another team, but without either side having to lock into a full maximum contract.

One important note: Even if Siakam makes All-NBA this season, he’s no longer eligible for a Designated Veteran Contract, which would start at 35% of the salary cap. A player can only get a Designated contract from the team that drafted them, or a team that acquired them while still on their rookie contract.

Let’s get back to the on-court part of this trade for the Pacers. Indiana now has their power forward of the present and, presumably, the future. Siakam will be a major upgrade over any of the options the Pacers have used over the last two seasons. His three-point shooting has regressed back to the low 30% range over the past two seasons, but Siakam has also limited his attempts from distance too.

As a scorer, Siakam takes over 59% of his shots in/around the paint, with a healthy 28% of them coming right at the rim. He’s also shooting a robust 76.8% at the rim this year. Of the Pacers who attempt more than four field goals per game, no one matches Siakam’s combination of volume and efficiency inside.

Siakam also remains a solid rebounder, which will help an Indiana team that ranks in the bottom-five of the NBA in defensive rebounding. He’s also a good transition player, which fits in the Pacers high-octane offense. And Siakam is a good shot-creator and passer too.

The biggest upgrade might be on defense. Prior to this trade, Indiana didn’t have a four that could defend both on the perimeter and the interior. While Siakam isn’t the shot-blocker he was in his first few seasons, he’s still a solid on-ball and help defender. While no one is stopping Giannis Antetokounmpo or Joel Embiid, Siakam can at least take his turn making them work. That will free up Myles Turner to roam as a help defender, which is where he really excels. In addition, Siakam is a very good double-teamer, as he uses his length and quickness to make it hard for opponents to find passing outlets.

The Pacers lose some perimeter defense in this deal with Bruce Brown headed to Toronto. But it’s not a massive loss. Indiana still has Aaron Nesmith and Andrew Nembhard who can pick up opposing ballhandlers on the wing. On offense, Brown wasn’t shooting as well as the last couple of seasons, and his playmaking was a bit muted in his spot-up role. That means he should be replaceable for the Pacers.

Essentially, Brown’s contract accomplished a few things. First, it helped Indiana to get to the salary floor, which all teams have to be at by the start of the season under the new CBA. Second, it was the exact type of tradable salary the Pacers envisioned it would be if a big move came their way. And last, but not least, Brown is making more money in this one season than he had made his first five years of his career combined.

Jordan Nwora hasn’t been able to lock down a consistent rotation role in his four NBA seasons. He’s a talented shooter and scorer, but Nwora doesn’t offer much else. Maybe he’s a late-bloomer, but it wasn’t going to happen in Indiana.

As for the draft picks…Yes, it’s a significant investment for a pending free agent. But these aren’t premium draft picks, at least not right now. This season’s Pacers pick should land around the early-to-mid 20s. The other 2024 pick is destined to be in the late-20s, pending where the Thunder or Clippers finish in the standings. The 2026 first-rounder Indiana is sending Toronto is more of an unknown, but a team built around a prime Tyrese Haliburton should be able to stay a playoff team.

If Siakam walks, it’ll sting for Indiana for sure. But they didn’t send everything that wasn’t tied down to Toronto here. They made a significant investment in a player who can lift them this season, and likely for the next few years, as well. If it doesn’t work out, the Pacers are out a couple of picks, but still have tremendous cap flexibility moving forward.

Toronto Raptors

Incoming salary: $30.7 million in 2023-24

Outgoing salary: $37.9 million in 2023-24

OG Anunoby (who didn’t play in that title run) and Pascal Siakam were the last links to the 2019 champs. That alone signals how much of a reset this is for the Raptors. And make no mistake, this is reset, not a rebuild.

Toronto created an incredible amount of future flexibility for themselves, while gaining some long-term assets in terms of players and draft picks in their two recent trades. This deal, in particular, is likely to deliver more on the cap sheet and in the draft pick vault than on the court.

Sure, Bruce Brown could be a nice player for Toronto. But the Raptors already have a pretty crowded wing rotation. In fact, it’s so crowed that it’d a surprise to see both Brown and Gary Trent Jr. still in Toronto after the trade deadline. Brown can’t be reaggregated with any other players in a pre-deadline move, but that doesn’t mean he won’t have trade value all on his own. As a 3&D wing, who can also handle it some and pass, Brown has a lot of value. It’s likely Toronto is already getting calls to see what it will take to get him.

Lewis and Nwora are flyers as the Raptors reset the rest of this season. It’s not clear how much either will play, as Lewis is behind both Immanual Quickley and Dennis Schroder at point guard and Nwora is behind several other wings and forwards. But if subsequent trades free up playing time, Lewis or Nwora could pop with an increased opportunity.

However, this trade was as much about picking up some additional draft picks, which give Toronto replacements for the ones they sent to San Antonio in the Jakob Poeltl trade. None looks like a truly prime pick, but you never know what will happen, especially a couple of years out.

This trade could have the added benefit of makin Toronto’s own pick better for this year. As it stands right now, the Raptors on the cusp of keeping their own 2024 first-round pick, as it’s top-6 protected. The chances of the Raptors “catching” the Portland Trail Blazers or Charlotte Hornets are pretty low, but again, you never know.

As for the cap sheet, the Raptors books are now pretty clean. They can reasonably create up to $31.5 million in cap space for the upcoming offseason. That would mean clearing the decks of all but their guaranteed salaries, plus cap holds for Quickley and their first-round picks. But that’s not really a big deal, as none of the Raptors pending free agents seem overly likely to return.

Overall, Toronto has set themselves up to build around a new core of Scottie Barnes, Immanuel Quickley, RJ Barrett, Jakob Poeltl and whatever they do with their newfound flexibility. That’s why this is a reset and not a rebuild.

New Orleans Pelicans

Incoming salary: None
Outgoing salary: $5.7 million in 2023-24

This trade is pretty simple for New Orleans. The Pelicans were $2.9 million over the luxury tax line for this season. The Pelicans have never paid the tax in franchise history. This year wasn’t going to be the first. That meant finding a trade partner to move some salary too, with Lewis always being the most likely candidate. That’s in part due to moving only his salary being enough to dodge the tax, while also creating a little wiggle room for future transactions. It’s also in part due to Lewis not being a part of the rotation in New Orleans, while being a pending free agent this summer.

The Pelicans will have 14 days to sign a 14th player to a standard contract. That’ll eat into a little bit of the wiggle room they’ve just created. The guesses here for how New Orleans fills that spot are:

  • Another trade. This one seems a bit less likely, but could be on the table.
  • Converting Matt Ryan to a standard contract. This is possible. The Pelicans like Ryan quite a bit and could get him on a multi-year deal by using part of their remaining Non-Taxpayer MLE.
  • Converting Jeremiah Robinson-Earl to a standard contract. Less likely than Ryan, but it would work the same way.
  • Signing a player, or players, to 10-Day contracts. This seems most likely, especially in the immediate.
  • Signing a player, or players, for the rest of the season. This is also possible, if there is a free agent available that New Orleans feels like they have to get. This could also come after the team undergoes a series of 10-Day “tryouts”, if you will.

Overall, for the cost of one second-round pick, the Pelicans got out of the tax. That’s probably a swing of somewhere between $17 and $20 million to the New Orleans ownership group. That’s big, and will hopefully be remembered when the team has to re-sign some key players down the line.

Notes

As of the writing of this article, the following items hadn’t been fully confirmed:

  • Who the Indiana Pacers are waiving to complete the Kira Lewis Jr. acquisition. Even thought Indiana is trading Lewis to the Raptors, they have to create a roster spot for him first. It’s likely that spot will be created by waiving James Johnson, but this has not been confirmed as of yet. UPDATE: The Pacers chose to waive James Johnson.
  • Who the Toronto Raptors are waiving to complete the 3-for-1 trade. Toronto has one open roster spot, but will need to free up an additional spot to bring in Bruce Brown, Kira Lewis Jr. and Jordan Nwora. It’s likely that spot will be created by waiving Garrett Temple, but this has not been confirmed as of yet. UPDATE: The Raptors chose to waive Christian Koloko.
  • Created Traded Player Exceptions. The Raptors should create a TPE of $7.2 million for Pascal Siakam in this trade. The Pelicans should create a TPE of $5.7 million for Kira Lewis Jr. in this trade. UPDATE: The Raptors chose to use part of the Precious Achiuwa TPE to bring in Jordan Nwora. This created a $10.2 million TPE for Pascal Siakam. The Pelicans did create a $5.7M TPE for Kira Lewis Jr.

#nba #nba trade deadline #indiana pacers #toronto raptors #new orleans pelicans #bruce brown jr. #pascal siakam #jordan nwora #kira lewis jr.
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