2024 NASCAR Cup Primer

Scott Allen
Scott Allen, ContributorJanuary 30, 2024
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NEW FACES & NEW CONTRACTS

JOSH BERRY (#4, STEWART-HAAS RACING)

Josh Berry signed with Stewart-Haas Racing to drive the  No. 4 car recently vacated by Kevin Harvick. By all indications and reports this is a one year contract for the 2024 season. Berry was a full-time driver in the Xfinity Series for JR Motorsports for the last two seasons and has been a fill-in driver at the Cup level for the last three seasons. 

NOAH GRAGSON (#10, STEWART-HAAS RACING)

Noah Gragson signed a multi-year contract with Stewart-Haas Racing in December 2023 replacing Aric Almirola in the No. 10 car. Gragson was previously with Legacy Motor Club during the 2023 season but was suspended for an off-track incident. 

DANIEL HEMRIC (#31, KAULIG RACING)

Daniel Hemric signed a contract with Kaulig Racing in September 2023 to drive the No. 31 car. By all indications and reports this is a one year contract for the 2024 season. Hemric was a full-time driver in the Xfinity Series with Kaulig Racing for the 2022 and 2023 seasons.

JOHN HUNTER NEMECHEK (#42, LEGACY MOTOR CLUB)

John Hunter Nemechek signed a contract with Legacy Motor Club in September 2023 to drive the No. 42 car. By all indications and reports this is a one year contract contract for the 2024 season. Nemechek was a full-time driver in the Xfinity Series with Joe Gibbs Racing for the 2023 season.

JUSTIN HALEY (#51, RICK WARE RACING)

Justin Haley signed a multi-year contract with Rick Ware Racing in July 2023 to drive the No. 51 car. Haley was a full-time driver in the Cup Series with Kaulig Racing for the 2022 and 2023 seasons.

ZANE SMITH (#71, SPIRE MOTORSPORTS via TRACKHOUSE RACING)

Zane Smith signed a multi-year contract with Trackhouse Racing in September 2023.  As a part of the deal, Smith will be loaned to Spire Motorsports to drive the No. 71 car for the 2024 season and is expected to drive full-time for Trackhouse Racing in 2025. Smith was a full-time driver in the Trucks Series for the last four seasons, most recently with Front Row Motorsports, and was the Truck Series champion for the 2022 season.

CARSON HOCEVAR (#77, SPIRE MOTORSPORTS)

Carson Hocevar signed a multi-year deal with Spire Motorsports in October 2023 to drive the No. 77 car replacing Ty Dillon. Hocevar was a full-time driver in the Trucks Series for the last three seasons with Niece Motorsports and recently finished 3rd in the 2023 season. Hocevar filled in for four races with Spire Motorsports at the Cup level during the 2023 season.

SHANE van GISBERGEN (#91, TRACKHOUSE RACING)

Shane van Gisbergen signed a developmental contract with Trackhouse Racing in September 2023. In December 2023, Kaulig Racing announced that van Gisbergen will drive on loan from Trackhouse Racing full-time in the Xfinity Series for the No. 97 car. van Gisbergen will drive select races at the Cup level for the No. 91 car during the 2024 season: COTA, Talladega (Apr), Charlotte (May), Chicago, Watkins Glen, Las Vegas (Oct), and Talladega (Oct).

Related: Breakdown of team/driver contract status | Recent Transactions

2024 SCHEDULE & PAYOUTS

While NASCAR does not directly disclose race payouts, Bob Pockrass of FOX Sports disclosed the purses for each race week for the 2023 season, so we are able to gain an estimate of what each race’s purse is likely to be in 2024. Pockrass starts every post with a disclaimer that results in the following: “Includes all payouts, all positions, including charter per-race payout and payouts based on previous three year history of charter, contribution to season-ending points fund, etc.”

While it’s no surprise that the Dayton 500 tips the scales as far as payouts are concerned, you can quickly see where the emphasis is on highest purse payouts during a season: COTA, Charlotte, Indianapolis and Phoenix (Championship).

Side note: The All-Star race winner receives $1 million. 

Related: 2023 NASCAR Cup Results

2024 NASCAR CHAMPIONSHIP ODDS

Ryan Blaney’s odds to win the 2023 NASCAR Cup Championship were +1000. The remaining final four drivers had odds of William Byron (+1600), Christopher Bell (+1400), Kyle Larson (+650).

The following are the 2024 NASCAR Championship odds courtesy of FanDuel.


 

My Best Value Pick

There are no surprises at the top of the odds list for the 2024 Championship, and there would be no surprises if we were to see four of the seven in the final four when the playoff dust settles. However, as mentioned two drivers in last year’s final four had +1000 or better odds (Blaney and Larson). Drivers to keep an eye on that are outside of the +1000 threshold: Kyle Busch or Tyler Reddick, who are going into their second year with RCR and 23XI respectively; Ross Chastain, who had a weird 2023 season and might expect him to take a step forward.

However, my focus is going to be either driver from RFK Racing: Brad Keselowski (+1800) and Chris Buescher (+2000). Keselowski finished the 2023 season with zero wins, seven top-5 finishes, 16 top-10 finishes and an average finish of 14.4, while Buescher finished the 2023 season with three wins, nine top-5 finishes, 17 top-10 finishes and an average finish of 12.1 (3rd best).

While the Fords seem to have had a slow start the last few seasons, they seem to somehow find their groove over the summer, and RFK racing is no different. RFK racing seemed to have found something in the latter half of the season and Keselowski/Buescher continued to make strides forward. Ford is also switching to the Mustang Dark Horse, which could help in their performance out of the gate this season (Note: Toyota has also made a change as well). 

Brad Keselowski is due for a win, and I would not doubt that this season is his year to get the checkered flag breaking his 98-winless streak. 

Chris Buesher had three wins last season, so I would expect him to add another win or two to his belt again this season. 

While Keselowski has the experience and pedigree behind him, my best value pick nod goes to Chris Buescher (+2000).

ROOKIE OF THE YEAR

There are three Rookie of the Year candidates for the 2024 season: Josh Berry, Carson Hocevar, and Zane Smith

JOSH BERRY (#4, STEWART-HAAS RACING)

Josh Berry was a full-time driver in the Xfinity Series for JR Motorsports for the last two seasons and has been a fill-in driver at the Cup level during the 2021 and 2023 seasons. Berry struggled in 2023 at the Xfinity level finishing 11th overall after coming off a solid 4th place finish in 2022. The majority of his fill-in races at the Cup level came from Chase Elliott missing multiple races due to an off-track injury. He averaged P21 over his ten fill-in races in 2023.

CARSON HOCEVAR (#77, SPIRE MOTORSPORTS)

Carson Hocevar was a full-time driver in the Craftsman Truck Series for the last three seasons with Niece Motorsports, and had an excellent 3rd place finish after back-to-back 10th place finishes in 2021 and 2022. He was a fill-in driver nine times last season at the Cup level (eight with Legacy Motor Club, one with Spire Motorsports) and four times at the Xfinity level with Spire Motorsports. His finishes during his Cup full-in races averaged P25. 

ZANE SMITH (#71, SPIRE MOTORSPORTS)

Zane Smith was a full-time driver in the Craftsman Truck Series for the last four seasons with finishes of 2nd, 2nd, 1st and 7th. Smith was a fill-in driver at the Cup level eight times during the 2023 season with only one top-10 finish and averaged P27 over eight races.

 

My Rookie of the Year

It has been said that the Truck Series is more closely related to the Cup Series than the Xfinity Series. With that being said, my pick comes down to Carson Hocevar or Zane Smith to compete for the ROY which they just happen to be teammates for the 2024 season. Nothing against Josh Berry, but he goes into a situation where Stewart-Haas Racing has mightily struggled and has to transition from Chevy to Ford. 

Carson Hocevar finished the 2023 Truck Series with 4 wins, 13 top-10 finishes and an average 11.6 finish while Smith finished with 2 wins, 10 top-10 finishes and an average finish of 14.8. As mentioned above, Zane Smith had finished 2nd, 2nd, 1st and 7th over the last four seasons in Trucks; however, Hocevar seems to be catching fire at the right time, which is why he rightfully so got the nod to fill the No. 77 car with Spire Motorsports to replace Ty Dillon.

My Rookie of the Year pick is going to Carson Hocevar with the notion that he has learned from his past and will continue to grow, mature and not make stupid mistakes on the track. If he does not overdrive the car…if he does not put the car into the wall…if he does not run into other drivers for stupid mistakes, Hocevar has the right opportunity to continue his upward trajectory and continue to improve and show why he was selected to a Cup team.

Hocevar will have Corey LaJoie as a teammate for an entire season, who rightfully had no DNFs in the 2023 season, so if Hocevar can learn from LaJoie on not wrecking his car, on keeping his car on the track and finishing races this will be a win-win for Hocevar and Spire Motorsports. LaJoie has continued to make a lot of progress each season, learning from the previous, and has made a better average finish each season since 2018. While it would be great to learn from any of the top tier drivers in the Cup series, LaJoie seems to have an open attitude to having Hocevar as a teammate and seems willing to help him learn and grow (h/t Stacking Pennies Podcast), which may just be what Hocevar needs as he starts his full-time Cup journey. 

DARK HORSE OF THE YEAR

TY GIBBS (#54, Joe Gibbs Racing)

A driver to keep an eye on for the 2024 season who I think is in a place to have a successful sophomore season is Ty Gibbs. His odds are +2800 to win the championship, which is the 15th best odds; so even the odds makers think there is a chance he’ll compete for a championship. I do not necessarily expect him to win the championship this season (possibly a future championship if he continues down the path that he has started), but I do think he’ll be vying and could be in the mix once the playoffs begin. 

Gibbs had a solid rookie season, and while he did not win a race in his rookie season I do believe he’ll be in the mix to (and I’m guessing will) win at least one race during the 2024 season.  He was consistently competitive, finishing with four top-5 finishes and ten top-10 finishes; four of his top-10s came in the first eight races of the 2023 season. Gibbs had an average finish of 18.4 which was the 19th best driver of the 2023 season where he had a better average finish than drivers such as Daniel Suarez, Michael MicDowell, Aric Almirola, and Chase Briscoe.


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