2024 NBA Spending Power Projections: Post Trade Deadline Update

Keith Smith
Keith Smith, Resident NBA ExpertFebruary 15, 2024
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NBA transaction season has just about wrapped up. There will be a handful more waivers, signings and probably even some contract extensions, but the big stuff is done. The focuses for teams become split after the trade deadline and the All-Star Break.

For the players and coaches, they focus on building towards the postseason. For teams that are out of the running for postseason spots, they pivot toward development.

For front offices, part of the focus goes towards the 2024 NBA Draft. There’s a lot of scouting to be done, both on the college and international levels. The other part starts preparing for the offseason. Who will have cap space, who will have only the MLE, who might be a second apron team and who becomes available because of all the above?

That means it’s time to take an updated look at where each of the NBA’s 30 teams project to land as far as spending power for the 2024 offseason. Of course, these projections will change as teams sign extensions, make two-way conversions and potentially sign and waive players. However, it’s good to take an updated look at where teams stand today.

A few notes:

  • We are using the NBA’s official projections for the salary cap and tax lines. Some are projecting greater growth than the 3.5% represented here, but we will always use the official projections from the league.
    • Salary Cap of $141,000,000
    • Luxury Tax of $171,315,000
    • First Apron of $178,655,000
    • Second Apron of $189,485,000
  • Max salary tiers grow with the cap. They are as follows:
    • 0-6 Years of Service: $35,250,000
    • 7-9 Years of Service: $42,300,000
    • 10+ Years of Service: $49,350,000
  • A projection has been made on all 2024-25 player and team options. Similarly, a projection was made on all partial and non-guaranteed contracts. And, finally, a projection made on renouncing free agents has also been made for cap space teams.
  • 2024 NBA Draft picks were based on ESPN’s BPI forecast for expected final record. All conditions on picks owned and owed were then reflected to determine the draft order and the subsequent cap holds.
  • No trades, extensions or signings have been projected. Essentially, rosters are as they stand at the time of publication.
  • With the advent of the new CBA, the landscape has changed around the NBA. There used to be three basic categories of teams each summer: Cap Space teams, Non-Taxpayer Mid-Level Exception teams and Taxpayer Mid-Level Exception teams. Each season there would also be a handful of “swing” teams that could fall in one bucket or another.

In this new world, we have a fourth category: Second Apron teams. These are the NBA’s most expensive teams that the new CBA was largely designed to punish.

Under the new CBA, if you are at or over the second apron, you lose access to the Taxpayer MLE. In addition, the trade rules tighten up for these teams. Salary-matching in trades is limited to 100%, they aren’t allowed to aggregate salaries together in trades, they can’t participate in sign-and-trade deals, and they won’t be able to use TPEs.

Essentially, Second Apron teams are going to limited to making 1-for-1 trades where they take back the same money as they send out (or less), signing their own draft picks and signing players to minimum salaries.

With all that said, here is the updated projected spending power for each NBA team in 2024 free agency!

Cap Space Teams (5)

  1. Detroit Pistons: $61.3 million
  2. Orlando Magic: $45.1 million
  3. Utah Jazz: $42.7 million
  4. Philadelphia 76ers: $42.4 million
  5. Toronto Raptors: $41.5 million

This is the smallest group of teams we can confidently project to have cap space in a decade of doing this exercise. As more and more teams prioritize extensions and trades, cap space (and the number of impact free agents) has dried up. Still, as we write every time we talk about cap space, having this kind of room doesn’t just mean signing free agents. Cap space can also be used to facilitate trades, either for yourself or others.

The Pistons jumped up to the top of the list after a series of moves where they shed some long-term money to create even more cap flexibility. As it stands now, the only non-Rookie Scale player Detroit projects to have on their roster is Isaiah Stewart, who is starting a four-year, $60 million Rookie Scale extension. Simone Fontecchio will probably get a qualifying offer, as the third-year NBA player is the closest thing this roster has in terms of age and experience. That makes for yet another year of massive amounts of cap space for Troy Weaver to work with.

Orlando comes in second in projections by virtue of having a roster full of players on rookie scale contracts and team-friendly deals. This includes all of the Magic’s best players. In the recent past, Orlando has eschewed cap space to re-sign or extend their own players. That seems poised to change, as the Magic are finally in position to really push the rebuild forward with an impact addition or two. And they need to do that before they have to start extending players like Franz Wagner and Paolo Banchero in coming years. In order to create meaningful space, Orlando will have to move on from one, or both, of Markelle Fultz and Jonathan Isaac. Both players have been extremely injury prone during their Magic tenure. One thing to keep an eye on: Orlando could let both go for cap space (renouncing Fultz and waiving Isaac), then bring them back on new deals at lower numbers, but with additional years added on.

Utah made some moves to clear out a little long-term salary, or at least salary questions, at the deadline. That sees the Jazz set up to have nearly $43 million in cap space. A large chunk of that will probably be reserved to do a renegotiation-and-extension with Lauri Markkanen. But Utah should still have a nice amount left over after to do some more work with.

The Sixers have been bandied about as having double-max cap space and the like for months now. For a while, that seemed extremely unlikely. It’s still not really a thing, but they can get close. There’s a world where the only salary commitments Philadelphia has on the books are Joel Embiid at $51.4 million and Tyrese Maxey’s cap hold at $13 million. That would see the Sixers able to create nearly $65 million in space. That’s still not double-max cap space, but it’s really, really close. We’re going to stay a bit more conservative and project the 76ers to keep a few other guys and land just north $42 million in space.

No team changed their cap space outlook more than Toronto did. They moved on from Pascal Siakam and OG Anunoby as their big deals. But the Raptors shed some salary into next year and beyond in other moves too. This projection accounts for declining Bruce Brown’s team option, which would give Masai Ujiri and staff the most flexibility they’ve had in ages. If Brown’s option is picked up, Toronto will probably operate as over the cap team. But they’ve got a lot of wings now. Look for them to take the cap space route.

Cap Space – Non-Taxpayer MLE Swing Teams (3)

This is an interesting mix of two rebuilding teams and a team that is in contention right now. That’s not generally where we typically find a potential cap space team, but the Thunder are anything but typical.

  1. Charlotte Hornets
  2. Oklahoma City Thunder
  3. San Antonio Spurs

Charlotte is in a bit of a weird spot. For another season, the Miles Bridges question hangs over this team. He signed the qualifying offer, so Bridges will be an unrestricted free agent next summer. Signs point toward Bridges and the Hornets wanting to sign a new contract. If that happens, they’ll likely operate as an over-the-cap team. If Charlotte moves on from some players, including Bridges, they can create about $28.6 million in cap space.

The Thunder finally went under the cap last offseason. They used that space to act as a clearing house for some contracts, in exchange for even more draft picks. This summer should go differently. Oklahoma City could create in the range of $30 million in cap space. That means renouncing both Gordon Hayward and Aleksej Pokusevski, which isn’t out of the question. Hayward could be re-signed to a much lower salary than he currently makes, and leave the Thunder with some space to add another player. A lot will likely depend on how this playoff run goes for OKC and Hayward.

Victor Wembanyama and the other young Spurs keep developing so rapidly, that their cap space projection has changed. The San Antonio no longer projects to have the first or second overall pick in the draft. On the flip side, the Spurs do look more likely to pick up the Raptors first-round pick though. So, a projection of around $20.7 million in cap space feels pretty safe. If Toronto keeps, their pick, San Antonio will bump up closer to $26.4 million in cap space. Either way, it’s enough to add to a fun, young roster.

Non-Taxpayer MLE Teams (6)

This is usually the largest group of teams we have, and it may well still end up that way. But for now, we can confidently project only six teams to be in range of using the full Non-Taxpayer MLE.

  1. Brooklyn Nets
  2. Houston Rockets
  3. Indiana Pacers
  4. New York Knicks
  5. Sacramento Kings
  6. Washington Wizards

All four of these teams have two things in common: They look to have only handful of roster spots to fill and they have plenty of clearance under the first apron. That puts all of these teams in range to use the full Non-Taxpayer MLE without tripping into any hard cap issues.

In addition, unlike the swing teams, there isn’t a reasonable path to cap space for any of these teams. Indiana would be the closest, but they’d be punting on some valuable players to create cap space. That seems highly unlikely. Houston and Washington could have been swing Cap Space-Non-Taxpayer teams, but both took on money for next season in trades that has them likely to stay over the cap.

Non-Taxpayer MLE – Taxpayer MLE Swing Teams (3)

This group is close to tripping into the luxury tax, or even over the first apron. Most of that is related to pending free agents that these teams could re-sign. And for a handful, they are close enough to the first apron, that the hard cap would become an issue if they used the Non-Taxpayer MLE.

  1. Chicago Bulls
  2. Cleveland Cavaliers
  3. New Orleans Pelicans

The Bulls, Cavaliers and Pelicans are all going to have free agent decisions to make. If they re-sign, or extend, those players to expected-value contracts, they’ll be butting up against the tax or even the first apron. That will take them out of range of using the Non-Taxpayer MLE.

The lone exception here is if Chicago were to lose DeMar DeRozan. If that happened, the Bulls would have more than enough room to use the full Non-Taxpayer MLE. That situation could resolve itself early, however, if DeRozan and the Bulls can reach an agreement on an extension.

Taxpayer MLE Teams (4)

The addition of the second apron has created a smaller-than-usual window for teams to be in position to use the Taxpayer MLE, but without creating issues against the second apron hard cap.

  1. Atlanta Hawks
  2. Dallas Mavericks
  3. Miami Heat
  4. Portland Trail Blazers

The Hawks are in a tricky spot. As it stands, they have a pretty small window to work within. And that’s before re-signing Saddiq Bey. But Atlanta also seems pretty likely to move off some long-term this summer. That could free up some much-needed flexibility. But dancing around the tax and the first apron is still pretty likely too.

The Mavericks project to be around $9 million under the second apron, but they also only have a few roster spots to fill. That leaves enough room to use the Taxpayer MLE to add a player, with enough wiggle room to stay under the hard cap that would be created at the second apron.

It might be a surprise to see the rebuilding Trail Blazers in this spot, but they took on a good amount of salary in the Damian Lillard trade, and the subsequent Jrue Holiday trade. Portland also re-signed Jerami Grant to a big contract too. And, somewhat surprisingly, the Blazers didn’t make any moves at the trade deadline. As it stands, Portland sits just over the luxury tax line. That won’t be a thing for long, as a rebuilding team can’t pay the tax. But it will limit what kind of spending power Portland has this summer. Instead of free agent signings, look for the Trail Blazers to keep retooling their roster through trades.

Second Apron Teams (9)

This is our largest group of teams for 2024 offseason projections. This is a direct result of two things. First, the second apron exists now, and some teams are over or up against it. Second, several teams took the “gap year” (or maybe better put the “get your books in order year”) to load up. That’s got us in a spot where roughly one-third of the league will be unable to add a free agent for more than the minimum this summer.

  1. Boston Celtics
  2. Denver Nuggets
  3. Golden State Warriors
  4. LA Clippers
  5. Los Angeles Lakers
  6. Memphis Grizzlies
  7. Milwaukee Bucks
  8. Minnesota Timberwolves
  9. Phoenix Suns

All nine of these teams are already over or right up against the second apron. Or they will be once they re-sign some key free agents. From there, this group of nine will be limited to making 1-for-1 trades where they take in similar (but not more) money, signing their own draft picks and signing players to minimum contracts.

Something to keep an eye on: If a team in this group underwhelms in the postseason, they could look to move a player or two to start the process of cleaning up their cap sheet. But most of these teams are contenders, or could be contenders with better health or a roster move or two. That’s going to keep most of them in a position to remain pretty expensive.

 


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