Contract Breakdown Projections for 7 QB Extension Candidates

Michael Ginnitti
Michael Ginnitti, Managing Editor & NFL/MLB ExpertFebruary 22, 2024
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Six notable quarterbacks could be eyeing a big pay day this NFL offseason. We detail full contract breakdown projections for Kirk Cousins, Dak Prescott, Jordan Love, Tua Tagovailoa, Jared Goff, & Trevor Lawrence this spring.

KIRK COUSINS (VIKINGS, 36)

Quick Details
3 years, $100,000,000
$33,333,333 AAV
$75M Guaranteed at Signing
$75M Practically Guaranteed

Cousins has spent 6 years on a fully guaranteed contract in Minnesota, but that may not be in the cards this time around. While a return to the Vikings still appears imminent, Cousins may need to drop his value to secure 2 fully guaranteed seasons on his next contract, as we’ve noted here. In this projection, Cousins gets $50M in 2024, and is fully guaranteed $75M through 2025.

JORDAN LOVE (PACKERS, 25)

Quick Details
4 years, $200,000,000
$50,000,000 AAV
$87.5M Guaranteed at Sign
$150M Practically Guaranteed

Love more than outplayed his bridge extension in 2023, making it unrealistic that he would play out the 2024 campaign on a 1 year, $11M contract. We've projected a 4 year, $200M extension for the 25 year old, including a $50M signing bonus, & $87.5M fully guaranteed at signing. The deal contains large roster bonuses that vest 1 offseason early for 2026 ($37.5M) & 2027 ($25M) raising the practical guarantee on this deal up to $150M. Love secures a $40M raise this season within this projection.

DAK PRESCOTT (COWBOYS, 31)

Quick Details
3 years, $180,000,000
$60,000,000 AAV
$119M Guaranteed at Signing
$169M Practically Guaranteed

The Cowboys have a few options with Dak Prescott, but the most likely outcome is an extension for the 31-year-old this offseason. We haven’t been shy with this one, making Prescott the first $60M per year player in terms of new money average. In total, we’ve projected a 4 year, $214M contract, with $169M guaranteed for practical purposes, and $119M of it fully guaranteed at signing. Prescott secures an historic $75M signing bonus, and his cap figure for 2024 lowers from $59.4M to $41.6M.

TUA TAGOVAILOA (DOLPHINS, 25)

Quick Details
4 years, $220,000,000
$55,000,000 AAV
$105M Guaranteed at Signing
$165M Practically Guaranteed

The Dolphins appear poised to extend Tua this offseason, who is entering his fully guaranteed 5th-year-option season (valued at $23.171M). We’ve projected a contract that tacks on 4 years & $220M, or 5 years, $243M total value. Of this, $105M is fully guaranteed at signing through 2025, another $50M locks in next March, and a final $10M roster bonus vests a year early for the 2027 season. Miami may look to build in per game active bonuses for this contract based on Tagovailoa’s injury history, but we’ve opted to leave these out for now. The bottom line here is that no player in football has more leverage than an above-average quarterback, and that has been reflected here.

TREVOR LAWRENCE (JAGUARS, 25)

Quick Details
6 years, $300,00,000
$50,000,000 AAV
$105M Guaranteed at Signing
$175M Practically Guaranteed

Lawrence hasn’t lived up to the full billing of his #1 overall draft pick status, but it appears he’s done enough to at least get the conversation started regarding a long-term extension in Jacksonville. Mathematically he’s a $48M player in our system, but we’ve upped our projection to an even $50M per year in terms of new money. Lawrence’s rookie contract currently carries around $27.5M remaining (4th year salary + expected 5th year option for 2025), making the total value of this contract 8 years, $327,500,000. Of that, $105M is fully guaranteed at signing, with another $70M set to lock in by March of 2026. There’s a lot of “fluff” built into the backend of this contract, affording the Jaguars a chance to gain significant value if Lawrence progresses into elite status over the next few seasons. And if not, it’ll be 4 years, $175M and then on to the next.

JARED GOFF (LIONS, 29)

Quick Details
4 years, $180,000,000
$45,000,000 AAV
$86.5M Guaranteed at Signing
$146.5M Practically Guaranteed

Goff has answered every bell since joining the Lions, and now enters an expiring contract year, set to earn $26.6M against a $31.6M cap hit. It’s not a foregone conclusion that Detroit will extend Goff this offseason, but for now it remains highly likely. We’ve tacked on 4 new years, $180M new money to his contract, combining for a total value 5 years, $206.5M. While we’ve only allocated $86.5M guaranteed at signing (a little escrow relief for a front office that might have 4 large extensions to process this spring), from a practical standpoint, we’ve locked in $146.5M of this contract (71%). Goff earns a $20M pay raise in 2024, and $136.5M over the next 3 seasons. It’s far from a top of the market contract, but it might be just what the doctor ordered to the Lions competitive for the next few seasons.

BAKER MAYFIELD (BUCCANEERS, 29)

Quick Details
4 years, $120,000,000
$30,000,000 AAV
$53M Guaranteed at Signing
$85M Practically Guaranteed

Baker's comeback has been one of the more enjoyable storylines of the past few seasons, culminating with a playoff win this past season with the Bucs. Tampa Bay is trying to keep Baker off of the open market at the final hour. We've projected a contract that essentially plays like a cap-adjusted version of Geno Smith's deal in Seattle, while using a double bonus structure to keep cap hits insanely low over the next two seasons.


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