Detailing the Stefon Diggs Trade

Michael Ginnitti
Michael Ginnitti, Managing Editor & NFL/MLB ExpertApril 03, 2024
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The Bills pulled a (mild) April stunner in agreeing to trade WR1 Stefon Diggs to the Houston Texans, sending a somewhat settled NFL world back into a bit of a frenzy. Buffalo also attached a 2025 5th round pick, & a 2024 6th round pick to Diggs in the move, acquiring a 2025 2nd round pick as the lone asset coming back. The trade comes loaded with impacts from every angle, and we’ll dive into them all here.

Initial Thoughts

One of the larger reasons many assumed Diggs’ role with Buffalo was secure for the 2024 season was his $31.096M trade dead cap figure. This number is comprised of three years of unallocated signing bonus proration, 4 years of unallocated option bonus proration, & 4 years of unallocated salary conversion proration. In other words, this isn’t a number that the Bills can have another team “pay down” for them in any manner. Buffalo has paid these three bonuses to Stefon Diggs, and must now take on the subsequent salary cap for it.

Had this trade been processed after June 1st, Buffalo could have split this $31M figure up into $8.84M for the upcoming 2024 season, then $22.2M for the 2025 campaign. But there are two reasons the Bills opted not to go this route:

First, the 2024 NFL draft is just 22 days away, and it’s loaded with highly projected WR talent. Adding a 2nd round pick to their arsenal now bolsters their ability to move around as needed to ensure they lock in a viable addition to the WR room going forward.

Second, Bills GM Brandon Beane has been fairly transparent in using the word “reset” in regards to the 2024 season. Some have taken this to mean that the Bills no longer consider themselves viable contenders, but the word can & should also be applied to the financial side of the Bills’ process. Buffalo has been outspoken about offering more than few of their core players “pay cut or else” ultimatums this offseason. A few have bought in (Von Miller, Rasul Douglas, Dawson Knox), while others have fallen off of the roster (Mitch Morse, Deonte Harty, Jordan Poyer). Taking the $31M hit all in 2024 coincides with Buffalo’s plan to purge on the fly, opening up 2025 to be a much more aggressive “buyers” window for them.

Financial Impact to Buffalo

Diggs’ $31.096M dead cap hit for 2024 means the Bills took a $3.2M cap loss in processing this trade. It also represents the largest single-season dead cap hit by any non QB, and the 6th biggest in NFL History.

Largest Single Season Dead Cap Hits

  • Russell Wilson, $53M
  • Matt Ryan, $40.5M
  • Aaron Rodgers, $40.3M
  • Tom Brady, $35.1M
  • Carson Wentz, $33.8M
  • Stefon Diggs, $31M

The dead hit also represents the largest cap hit on the current 2024 Bills Salary Cap Table, surpassing Josh Allen’s $30.3M number.

With all this said, the Bills immediately free up $27.3M of 2025 cap space per this move, not to mention shedding $19M of cash set to be paid out to Diggs for the upcoming 2024 season. The Bills now head toward the draft with around $4M of Top 51 cap space. They’ll open up another $10.2M of room on June 2nd after CB Tre’Davious White’s Post June 1st Designation fully processes.

In total, Buffalo paid Stefon Diggs $78.9M for 4 years of service, reeling in 445 catches (37 touchdowns) in 66 regular season games for the Bills.

Financial Impact to Houston

The Texans acquire Diggs with 4 years, $75M remaining on his current contract, but only $18.5M (all in 2024) is fully guaranteed right now. The deal very much becomes year-to-year after the upcoming season, and if the worst case scenario unfolds over the next calendar year, Houston can walk away from the contract taking on zero dead cap next March (assuming no salary cap conversions are processed on the 2024 salary).

Stefon Diggs Traded Contract
2024: $19.005M ($18.5M guaranteed)
2025: $18.505M ($3.5M guarantees next March)
2026: $19.6M
2027: $18M

Digg’s $19M cap hit becomes Houston’s 2nd largest figure for the upcoming season, behind only OT Laremy Tunsil’s $25.8M number.

Houston sees its Top 51 cap space drop down to around $12M with the acquisition of Diggs, making it likely that they’ll process a salary conversion or two (or move on from a contract or two) in the coming weeks. 

The Free Agent Wide Receiver Market

Is there a viable replacement for Stefon Diggs left in free agency? No. But there are at least a name or two worth staring at until your eyes cross.

Odell Beckham Jr, Tyler Boyd, Michael Gallup, Hunter Renfroe, Michael Thomas, Marquez Valdes-Scantling: Full List of Available WRs

The Wide Receiver Trade Market

Tee Higgins (CIN, 25)

Easily the “best” option reportedly available, but it seems highly unlikely that the Bengals would accept any offer here that bolstered Buffalo’s chances. It’s not impossible, but it seems close. We’ve got Higgins on a 4 year, $104M extension right now.

Allen Lazard (NYJ, 28)

Not exactly what the Bills need in terms of fit, and the fully guaranteed $10M salary for 2024 certainly doesn’t help. This doesn’t feel like a move any NFL team will be rushing to make.

Brandon Aiyuk (SF, 26)

Now we’re onto something. Nobody outside of the Niners front office really knows just how real the exit rumors this offseason are. Aiyuk may be looking for a larger role and subsequently a better extension offer, but San Francisco isn’t obligated to make a move if they don’t want to. For now, he carries a $14.1M fully guaranteed option salary in 2024 (far more salary cap than the Bills can acquire at the moment). Would that 2025 2nd round pick be enough to peak San Fran’s interest? Spotrac puts Aiyuk on a 4 year, $96M extension at the moment.

Concluding Thoughts

One of the bigger takeaways here isn’t so much the teams or people involved, but rather the numbers attached to this transaction. Would the Bills have pulled this trigger if the league salary cap hadn’t ballooned even more than front offices were expecting it to?

The fact is, the health of the league, and savviness of NFL GMs & salary cap manager, & the recent bolstered depth of NFL draft classes (especially at the WR position), have afforded teams the ability to stretch their limits with situations like this. 5 years ago, this trade isn’t even a thought from the team’s perspective.

Furthermore, Buffalo’s “reset” plan for the 2024 season is an indication that Brandon Beane is serious about not wanting to run his franchise in a true “continually push cap down the line” manner. He’s shown us in certain instances that he’ll convert a salary or two to make a move work in his favor - but the teams that truly make conversions their lifeline (Philly, New Orleans) simply never have an offseason like the Bills are going through right now.

If the Bills can remain relevant in the AFC (or even the division), it’ll be another checkmark next to this roster construction template on the list, showing that dead cap isn’t something to be ashamed of (in all cases), rather a signal that change is necessary, and that making more correct decisions than incorrect ones can keep a team “in the window” - despite what the masses may outwardly state.


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