Valuing 10 NFL Contract Extension Candidates

Michael Ginnitti
Michael Ginnitti, Managing Editor & NFL/MLB ExpertMay 03, 2024
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#dak prescott #jordan love #tua tagovailoa #trevor lawrence #jared goff #justin jefferson #ceedee lamb #ja'marr chase #brandon aiyuk #tee higgins
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With the bulk of free agency & the draft now in the books, many NFL teams are turning their attention back to their current rosters.

Spotrac has identified 10 players (5 Quarterbacks, 5 Wide Receivers) who are trending toward a major contract extension in the coming weeks & months.

QUARTERBACKS

Top Metrics
Average Salary: $55M (Burrow)
Total Guarantee: $219M (Burrow)*
Guarantee at Sign: $146.5M (Burrow)*
3-Year Cash: $156M (Jackson)

*excluding Deshaun Watson

Dak Prescott, 30, Cowboys

Dak is entering the final year of his 4 year contract in Dallas, set to earn $34M for the upcoming season. He holds a no-trade clause, a no-tag clause, and the Cowboys are set to take on a $40.46M dead cap hit next March once his contract voids. Furthermore, all 3 QBs currently on the roster are set to become unrestricted free agents after 2024, putting Dallas’ future at the position in complete question right now. Dak Prescott nearing free agency with maximum leverage? Stop me if you’ve heard this story before. 4 years, $225M.
Calculated Value | Current Contract

Jordan Love, 25, Packers

Now officially eligible for an extension (there was a clause restricting him until May 2nd), the Packers are almost certain to lock in their QB1 before the start of training camp. Love is set to earn $11M for the upcoming season as it currently stands. Adding another 4 years, & $200M to that number seems to make a lot of sense.
Calculated Value | Current Contract

Tua Tagovailoa, 26, Dolphins

Tua is entering his 5th season in Miami, set to earn a fully guaranteed $23.17M option salary for the upcoming season. He put together his best season to date last year by a country mile, placing him on a 4 year, $198M extension valuation. It seems highly unlikely that the Dolphins get a signature on anything less than $50M per year however.
Calculated Value | Current Contract

Jared Goff, 29, Lions

Goff completed over 67% of his passess for the 3rd time in the past 4 seasons, and is set to earn $27.3M through the final year of his contract in Detroit. The Lions appear poised to lock in all of their core pieces this offseason, and have already started that process with WR Amon-Ra St. Brown & OL Penei Sewell. Goff doesn’t have the 2-year production to mathematically value into the high-40s or 50s, but a 4 year, $160M extension has to be considered a foundation point for this discussion.
Calculated Value | Current Contract

Trevor Lawrence, 24, Jaguars

Despite inconsistent production through his first 3 NFL seasons, reports state that the Jaguars have already begun serious extension negotiations with Lawrence and his camp. The #1 overall pick is now fully guaranteed $31.3M across the next two seasons, but projects toward a 6 year, $278M extension in our system currently.
Calculated Value | Current Contract

WIDE RECEIVERS

Top Metrics
Average Salary: $32M (Brown)
Total Guarantee: $84M (Brown)
Guarantee at Sign: $52.5M (Hill)
3-Year Cash: $80M (Brown)

Justin Jefferson, 25, Vikings

The modern-day GOAT now knows who the next QB in Minnesota will be. Is a historic extension for JJ next on the Vikings’ to-do list? It’s perfectly plausible that Jefferson and his camp would rather wait for CeeDee Lamb and/or Ja’Marr Chase to lock in their own deals before finalizing his own numbers, but neither of those scenarios seem close to their respective finish lines. Adding 4 years and $140M to his current $19.7M guaranteed salary for 2024 seems like a logical floor here.
Calculated Value | Current Contract

CeeDee Lamb, 25, Cowboys

With A.J. Brown’s extension now on the books ($32M per year, $84M guaranteed), it stands to reason that Justin Jefferson will push the non-QB contract at or over $35M per year, approaching $100M practically guaranteed. The bad news for Jerry Jones & Co? CeeDee Lamb’s production across the board over the past two years is nearly identical to Jefferson - and he’s remained healthier over that span as well. It’s perfectly plausible that Lamb approaches the $35M per year mark in the coming weeks.
Calculated Value | Current Contract

Ja’Marr Chase, 24, Bengals

While much of the focus in Cincinnati has gone to Tee Higgins and his unsigned franchise tag, Chase (the reason Higgins has a tag and not an extension), has now been extension eligible for 4 months. Will the Bengals take a page out of Philly’s book and rush to extend their core weapon this summer, or will they balance out Chase’s value salary ($4.8M) against Higgins’ tag ($21.8M), then look to re-up Ja’Marr next offseason? Waiting is a dangerous game at this position right now. Chase projects toward a 3 year, $90M extension in our system.
Calculated Value | Current Contract

Brandon Aiyuk, 26, 49ers

The trade rumors are (reportedly) dead for now, so we’ll return our focus to what an extension for Aiyuk in San Francisco could resemble. The former #25 overall pick has shared a lot of targets with the likes of Deebo, George, & Christian over the past 4 seasons, but has still managed to average 77 catches, 1200 yards, and 8 TDs annually since 2022. He’s a classic case of a player who is ready to explode with more opportunity, and is certainly seeking a contract that reflects that. On our books, Aiyuk projects toward a 4 year, $106M extension.
Calculated Value | Current Contract

Tee Higgins, 25, Bengals

Higgins has (unsurprisingly) yet to sign his $21.8M franchise tag, and the Bengals haven’t made his camp a multi-year offer in quite some time, so the likelihood of something getting done by the July 15th deadline seems slim for now. He’s a 5 year, $100M player in our system, and Michael Pittman Jr.’s $23.3M per year deal seems a likely “reach” deal at the moment.
Calculated Value | Current Contract


#dak prescott #jordan love #tua tagovailoa #trevor lawrence #jared goff #justin jefferson #ceedee lamb #ja'marr chase #brandon aiyuk #tee higgins
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