Reassessing MLB's Top 10 Free Agent Signings

Michael Ginnitti
Michael Ginnitti, Managing Editor & NFL/MLB ExpertMay 08, 2024
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#matt chapman #blake snell #sonny gray #cody bellinger #eduardo rodriguez #josh hader #player-82037 #aaron nola #yoshinobu yamamoto #shohei ohtani
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With the 2024 MLB season now just around 20% completed, we’ll take a quick look back at the Top 10 Free Agent Contracts signed this past winter, highlighting each player’s respective production out of the game, and making note of any contract specifics going forward.

RELATED: 2024 MLB FREE AGENCY

Shohei Ohtani (DH, Dodgers)

10 years, $700M

He leads the league in hits, runs, doubles, homers, batting average, slugging, OPS, OPS+ & total bases - need we say more? Only teammate Mookie Betts has better odds to win NL MVP as of now, but Ohtani is closing in quickly. Contractually there are no opt-outs, a full no trade clause, and a well-known boatload of cash deferrals.

Yoshinobu Yamamoto (SP, Dodgers)

12 years, $325M

After a rocky debut, Yamamoto has sparkled in 7 straight starts, posting a 2.79 ERA, while striking out 47 batters, walking only 8 in 42 innings pitched. Furthermore, his innings per start have begun to creep up, a sign that the 25-year-old may be rounding into form as the Dodgers look to extend their NL West lead through the middle months of the season. Contractually, the Dodgers have him guaranteed through 2029 ($155M total), after which the first of two player opt-outs become available.

Aaron Nola (SP, Phillies)

7 years, $172M

The strikeouts are a little down and the walks are a little up, but for the most part, Nola is performing right at his career average in Year 10. The contract carries 6 more seasons with no opt-outs and a full no trade clause. His Phillies have a 3 game lead on the Braves atop the NL East currently. 

Jung-hoo Lee (OF, Giants)

6 years, $113M

On its surface, it may appear as though Lee’s MLB career has gotten off to a slow start, and production-wise that is true. But the plate disciple, batted ball rates, and rest of season projections all point to Lee not only succeeding as a MLB player, but eventually thriving. The contract is locked through 2027 ($72M), with a player opt-out available thereafter.

Josh Hader (RP, Astros)

5 years, $95M

To say the Astros start (12-23) has been a surprise would be the understatement of the century. Sure, the team behind Hader is faltering, but Hader’s numbers themselves are cause for concern as well. A 42% hard hit percentage is Hader’s highest since 2019, and a .418 slugging percentage against is a career high. He gave up 3 HRs all of 2023, but has already handed out 2 in 14 2024 innings. Contractually, there are no opt-outs, and full no trade clause, and $90M guaranteed remaining.

Eduardo Rodriguez (SP, Diamondbacks)

5 years, $77M

A lat strain has kept E-Rod on the shelf to start his D-Backs career, and a setback has his timetable to return in question. He’s locked in through 2027, with a vesting option in available in 2028 based on innings.

Cody Bellinger (CF, Cubs)

3 years, $80M

A rib injury derailed his season-start, but the numbers since returning seem to be resembling 2023 quite a bit. Good news for the Cubs, who handed Bellinger a $15M+ raise this season, with back to back player options ($27.5M, $25M) to follow.

Sonny Gray (SP, Cardinals)

3 years, $75M

The Cardinals don’t have many things to hang their hat on this season, but Gray is one of them. The 34-year-old carries a sparkling 0.89 ERA, 0.85 WHIP, 11.3 Ks/9, and a whopping 466 ERA+ across 5 starts. The contract holds 2 years, $65M guaranteed with a 3rd year option available through 2027. There’s a great chance he’s a serious trade deadline name in a few months.

Blake Snell (SP, Giants)

2 years, $62M

The late free agent signing (March 18th) kept Snell off the active roster early on, and a hip injury has him off the active roster now indefinitely. In between, the 2023 Cy Young winner posted 3 horrific starts (11.57 ERA, 4 BB/9, 18 hits in 11.2 innings). The contract breaks down as a 1 year, $32M deal, with a $30M player option available in 2025.

Matt Chapman (3B, Giants)

3 years, $54M

After a torrid start to 2023 in Toronto, Chapman crashed back down to earth to finish off the season (though he still posted a 5-year-best 4.4 WAR). His 2024 production thus far puts him on pace to finish well below his 162-game averages. Contractually, Chapman can make this a 1 year, $20M contract, a 2 year, $38M contract, or the full 3 year, $54M contract.

RELATED: 2024 MLB FREE AGENCY

 


#matt chapman #blake snell #sonny gray #cody bellinger #eduardo rodriguez #josh hader #player-82037 #aaron nola #yoshinobu yamamoto #shohei ohtani
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