Breaking Down Jordan Love's $220M Extension

Michael Ginnitti
Michael Ginnitti, Managing Editor & NFL/MLB ExpertJuly 27, 2024
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The Extension Terms

Jordan Love and the Green Bay Packers agreed to a 4 year, $220M contract extension last night. The deal adds on to his previous 1 year, $11M contract, combining for 5 years, $231M in total value. The $220M new money value ranks 10th among active contracts, but becomes the largest in Packers history by a country mile (Aaron Rodgers, $150.8M).

At $55M per year, Love is now tied with Joe Burrow & Trevor Lawrence as the highest average paid players in football, but this ranking should come with a fairly sizable asterisk. When pinning this metric against the league salary cap at the time of signing, Love/Lawrence’s AAV drops to 10th, at 21.53%. Burrow remains the leader in the clubhouse for this metric, as his $55M last offseason represents 24.47% of the league cap.

The Signing Bonus

The Packers have long operated as a franchise that hands out guarantees exclusively via the signing bonus. While Love’s new deal is one of the (very) few that contains additional salary guarantee, Green Bay handed their QB1 a record-setting $75M signing bonus. Of that, $25M will be paid next week, another $25M will be paid October 4th, and the final $25M will be paid out on December 27th. It’s an outstanding pay structure for an extraordinary bonus.

The previous breadwinner at this metric just received the belt a few weeks ago: Jared Goff, $73M per his new deal with the Lions.

Top 5 Signing Bonuses in NFL History

  1. Jordan Love (GB, 2024): $75M
  2. Jared Goff (DET, 2024): $73M
  3. Lamar Jackson (BLT, 2023): $72.5M
  4. Dak Prescott (DAL, 2021): $66M
  5. Russell Wilson (SEA, 2021): $65M

The Guarantee Structure

As noted above, the Packers broke tradition by guaranteeing more than just a signing bonus. Jordan Love’s $100.8M guaranteed at signing consists of his signing bonus, 2024 salary, 2025 salary, 2026 salary. The $100.8M currently ranks 9th among NFL contracts, but at nearly 44% of the total value of the contract ($231M), this is a fairly strong number.

Next March 16th, the remaining $39.5M of Love’s 2026 compensation (an option bonus) will become fully guaranteed. All of that is guaranteed for injury at the time of signing.

On the 5th league day of 2026, $20M of Love’s 2027 compensation becomes fully guaranteed. All of that is guaranteed for injury at the time of signing, and subject to offsets.

This calculates to a practical guarantee of $160.3M, which also ranks 9th among active contracts.

The Cash Flow

Love will make $79M in 2024, which is more than his previously available $11M I’m told. Only Jared Goff & Lamar Jackson (who each secured $80M) have locked in more out of the gate.

The 2-year payout for Love comes in at $92M, good enough for 6th among active contracts, while the 3-year cash flow hands Love $143M, 5th most and just behind Joe Burrow.

Jordan Love’s Cash Flow
2024: $79M
2025: $13M
2026: $51M
2027: $43M
2028: $45M

The Salary Cap Hits

The triple-bonus structure of this contract means very tenable cap hits early on in the deal, with a fluffy finale in 2028. We’re also projecting the use of 3 void years in 2029-2031 which allows the option bonuses to prorate a full 5 years, but leaves behind $34.7M of dead cap at the expiration of the contract after 2028.

Jordan Love’s Cap Hits

2024: $20.7M
2025: $29.7M
2026: $36.1M
2027: $42.4M
2028: $74.2M

The contract extension added $8M of cap to the upcoming 2024 season.

A Potential Out Discussion

Despite early vesting guarantees into the 2027 season, this is really a “3 years and we’ll see contract”. If the wheels are falling off between the two sides at any point over the next three seasons, the Packers can walk away after 2026 - but it will cost them.

Here’s the scenario: The Packers enter the 2026 offseason realizing Love may not be the future of the franchise. The decline a $39.5M option bonus (which is already guaranteed), choosing to take it all on as guaranteed salary instead. The move raises his 2026 cap hit to $67.7M, which is high, but will be doable in a near $300M league salary cap world. After 2026, Green Bay can outright release Love, taking on $51M of dead cap all at once, or $36M in 2027, $15M in 2028 as a Post 6/1 release. The catch? $20M of that dead cap will consist of fully guaranteed salary to be paid to Love, that is subject to offset language if he were to sign elsewhere for the season.

So yea, it’s a 3 year contract for slightly practical purposes, but much more plausible as a 4 year, $186M deal through the 2027 season. At this point in time, Love will be 29-years-old, and if things are going swimmingly, both sides will be ready to engage in new contract negotiations.

If things aren’t in shape to proceed after 2027, expect a Post June 1st release in March of 2028, leaving behind $29.2M of dead cap for that season, and another $34.7M in 2029. These figures can be reduced heavily if Green Bay were to decline Love’s $31.5M option bonus, instead choosing to take it all on as 2027 salary.

Plenty of options, a few fairly decent outs halfway through, but also a pretty strong contract for a player with very few game reps or big wins in his back pocket.

A Win For “Trust the Process”

When the Packers selected Jordan Love #26 overall back in 2020, the collective groans could be heard across all of NFL Nation. Green Bay was still attached at the hip to Aaron Rodgers, and it was widely believed that they were a high prospect offensive weapon or two away from being able to reach Super Bowl aspirations again.

Instead, the Packers’ front office decided to store a potential next-QB1 in their back pocket, starting the clock on his rookie contract value immediately - to much grief from those who follow closely  (myself included). Rodgers responded with back-to-back league MVP seasons, furthering the groans, what-ifs, and whys with this draft decision.

Love would see action in just 10 games before Green Bay finally made the decision to trade away Aaron Rodgers and turn the keys over to their 2020 1st Rounder. Though the timing of the move came on the heels of another big decision: Jordan Love’s $20.2M 5th-year-option. Would they fully guarantee their QB1 through 2024 without really knowing if he’s the man for the job?

Love and the Packers agreed on a creative, bridge extension that handed him a near $6M raise in 2023 (from $4M to $9.9M), with a chance for Green Bay to move on thereafter and cut their losses. Love responded about as well as possible in his first full season at QB1, forcing his front office to turn that bridge contract into a fully developed QB contract. And here we are.


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