Breaking Down Tua Tagovailoa's $212.4M Extension

Michael Ginnitti
Michael Ginnitti, Managing Editor & NFL/MLB ExpertJuly 27, 2024
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The Extension Terms

Tua Tagovailoa and the Miami Dolphins came to terms on a 4 year, $212.4M extension yesterday that keeps the QB under contract through the 2028 season. It easily surpasses Tyreek Hill’s $120M contract as the largest total value deal in Dolphins’ history, while the $212.4M figure ranks 11th among active NFL contracts.

The $53.1M contract average is the 2nd largest figure in NFL history, but Tua now ranks 4th in AAV behind Burrow, Lawrence, and Love - all who clock in at $55M. Against the current $255.4M league salary cap, Tua’s AAV represents 20.79%, which ranks 12th in the league (behind Lawrence, ahead of Goff).

The Guarantee Structure

Tagovailoa’s new deal contains $93.171M fully guaranteed at signing, by way of a $42M signing bonus, his 2024 salary, 2025 salary, and a $25M 2025 offseason roster bonus. The $93.171M currently ranks 12th among all contracts, while a sub 40% total value guarantee (39.5%) is quite a bit less than the recent near/top of the market QB contracts to hit the books.

It’s clear this was a major sticking point for the Dolphins amidst negotiations.

Next March, his $54M 2026 salary becomes fully guaranteed. This figure is guaranteed for injury at signing.

In March of 2026, $3M of Tua’s 2027 salary becomes fully guaranteed. $20M of this salary is guaranteed for injury at signing. The remaining $17M becomes fully guaranteed in March of 2027.

This calculates to a practical guarantee of $167.1M, (8th most) though it should be noted that the final $17M of 2027 salary should be considered a loose guarantee at this stage (is that the most oxymoronic statement ever?).

The Cash Flow

Tua will earn $43.125M in 2024, up nearly $20M from his previous $23.171M 5th-year-option.
The 2-year payout comes in at $94.1M, good enough for 5th among active contracts, while the 3-year cash flow hands Tua $149.1M, 3rd most and ahead of Joe Burrow.

Tua Tagovailoa’s Cash Flow
2024: $43.125M
2025: $51M
2026: $55M
2027: $37M
2028: $49.4M

Of note, the Dolphins compromised on a very strong early cash flow in lieu of making the 4th year of this contract more stable for Tua. When looking at the cash per year breakdown, it’s safe to assume that if all is going well after 2026, Miami will be willing to begin the re-negotiation process, when Tua will still be 28-years-old.

The Salary Cap Hits

An average signing bonus ($42M) and minimum salary for 2024 kept his cap hit for the upcoming season extremely team-friendly ($9.525M). It’s a savings of $13.6M from his 5th-year-option salary before the extension.

From there however, the onus will be put on the front office to manage Tua’s salary cap figures going forward. There’s a juicy $25M roster bonus (fully guaranteed) to be paid out next March that seems like a lock to be converted to a signing bonus for cap purposes. But the 2026 financials will need a wait-and-see approach. If the wheels are falling off on the relationship, Miami may be inclined to keep all or most of his $54M base salary intact, rather than add more dead cap to a soon to be traded or released player.

Tua Tagovailoa’s Cap Hits
2024: $9.5M
2025: $59.4M
2026: $63.4M
2027: $45.4M
2028: $57.8M

Attainable Incentives

The new deal contains incentives each of 2025-2028 that are tied to a combination of playing time and playoff success.

  • 50% regular season snaps + Wild Card Win: $250,000
  • 50% regular season snaps + Divisional Round Win: $500,000
  • 50% regular season snaps + Conf. Championship Win: $500,000
  • 50% regular season snaps + Super Bowl Win Win: $1M

A Potential Out Discussion

Miami was able to draw a pretty thick line in the sand after 2026 here. Even after they convert the $25M roster bonus for next season into signing bonus (and assuming no other conversion), the Dolphins will only be strapped with $34.8M of dead cap to move on before the 2027 campaign. ($3M of that comes in the form of fully guaranteed 2027 salary)

2027 should be the line of demarcation for both sides here. If it’s not working out, the Dolphins can and will bail. If it’s still full steam ahead, Tua should be aggressively seeking a contract extension after 2026, especially with “only” $37M allocated to the 2027 season.

This will immediately become one of the more polarizing, closely-watched contracts in 2024, as Tua’s injury history and lack of playoff production kept many followers wondering if the extension should have ever happened in the first place.

So let’s play it out this way: The Dolphins and Tua don’t agree on an extension. He ends his holdout prior to Week 1, earns his full $23.1M 5th-year option salary, plays out a $43M franchise tag in 2025, and plays out a $51M 2nd franchise tag in 2026. That’s 3 years, $118M.

Under these new terms, Tua is likely to earn $149M+ over the next 3 seasons, plus a $3M buyout guarantee in 2027 to get us to $152M+. That’s a difference of $34M. Is a potential franchise QB for 3 seasons worth an extra $34M in order to keep him happy, not holding out, and in the best frame of mind to produce? Most teams would say yes.


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