Josh Allen is Underpaid, Now What?

Michael Ginnitti
Michael Ginnitti, Managing Editor & NFL/MLB ExpertJuly 30, 2024
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As new quarterback contracts continue to hit the books at historic costs, the separation between deals that were signed just a few years ago becomes greater and greater. There may be no better example of this than Josh Allen, who’s contract with the Buffalo Bills now looks like a rookie wage scale deal in comparison to a few of the more recently signed.

Allen is entering Year 4 of an 8 year, $284.5M contract that was signed in August of 2021, set to earn $30M cash for the upcoming season. In total, the deal has 5 years, $189.5M remaining on it through 2028.

When looking at the QB contract landscape over just the next three seasons, Allen’s cash flow currently ranks 15th. And with a new contract for Dak Prescott looming (now or next March), it’s safe to drop Allen down to 16th for practical purposes.

QB Cash Available 2024-2026

  • 1. Jared Goff, $153.6M
  • 2. Patrick Mahomes, $152.5M
  • 3. Tua Tagovailoa, $149M
  • 4. Jordan Love, $143M
  • 5. Justin Herbert, $140M
  • 6. Deshaun Watson, $138M
  • 7. Joe Burrow, $136M
  • 8. Kirk Cousins, $135M
  • 9. Jalen Hurts, $133M
  • 10. Lamar Jackson, $127M
  • 11. Derek Carr, $120M
  • T12. Trevor Lawrence, $114M
  • T12. Kyler Murray, $114M
  • T12. Daniel Jones, $114M
  • 15. Josh Allen, $108M

As deals for Jordan Love, Trevor Lawrence, & Tua Tagovailoa are spelled out across the internets, the urge to compare the shiny new numbers to the ghosts of nfl contracts past from Patrick Mahomes and Josh Allen becomes irresistible. But the Chiefs agreed to (actually) restructure Mahomes’ cash flow last offseason to sweeten his current pot, while keeping him under term through 2031 (for now).

As shown above, only Jared Goff (who scored a ridiculous $80M payout in 2024) is set to earn more than Mahomes from a cash perspective over the course of the next three seasons.

Of course, the Chiefs felt a bit of an obligation to address their QB1’s cash flow after back to back Super Bowl victories in 2022 & 2023. Josh Allen’s current resume includes 4 straight AFC East titles (2020-2023), but he’s been unable to get his Bills teams over the AFC Championship hump and into a Super Bowl as of yet.

So as talk about the widening gap between Allen’s current contract (which he agreed to) and its place almost exactly in the middle of the starting QB contract landscape increases - will the Buffalo Bills front office feel pressured into reacting? Will Allen and his camp put their foot down at some point over the next 12 months despite a considerable amount of term left on his current deal?

Let’s play out a few scenarios.

A Cash Flow Restructure

Allen doesn’t have a Mahomes resume to boast, but he’s garnered enough clout to bring the “sweeten the pot” convo to the table. Let’s keep something in mind here however.

Here’s the current cash breakdown for Josh Allen’s remaining contract:

2024: $30M
2025: $39.5M ($25M roster bonus)
2026: $38.5M ($15M roster bonus)
2027: $40M ($25M roster bonus)
2028: $41.55M ($25M roster bonus)

I’ve highlighted the included roster bonuses because that seems to be the most logical path to bringing money forward on the deal (without having to process a brand new deal from scratch). Per the list of 3-year payouts above, Allen sits about $45M below the very top of the pay class, and around $20M from cracking the Top 10 (he’s currently 15th per this metric).

If the Bills agree to pull forward Allen’s $25M roster bonus from 2028 into 2025 & 2026, will it be enough to keep him on the deal until the 2027 offseason?

Potential Updated Cash Flow:
2024: $30M
2025: $51.5M
2026: $51.5M
3-Year Total: $133M (ties Jalen Hurts for 9th)

Is Josh Allen the 9th best quarterback in football? No. But that’s not how the financial rankings ever play out. Timing is everything, and unfortunately for Allen, he agreed to a contract that was (at least) 3 years too long.

A Complete Do-Over

Before we get here, it should be noted that the Bills (or any NFL front office) will want absolutely nothing to do with a rip-up-and-start-over contract for a player that has 4 years remaining on his current deal. And nor should they quite frankly.

However, for purposes of this exercise, we’ll assume that Allen has another Allen type season in 2024, and Buffalo feels compelled to explore every option to keep their franchise QB1 at peak happiness (especially with a big, new, expensive stadium in the process of being built).

Here’s a quick look at every NFL veteran contract that has been ripped up with 4+ years left on it in order to sign the player to a bigger, better contract:

None. The answer is none.

Current Market Value

As the QB money ladder continues to climb, so do the valuations for players nearing their next big contract. For Allen, our math tells us he projects toward a 5 year, $299.8M contract, or just a sliver under $60M per year.

However, for this exercise, we’re going to build in the idea that Allen & his camp will take a slight “average salary” discount as concession for Buffalo going the extra-extra mile to rip up their first swing and a miss of a contract and start fresh here.

Keep in mind, there’s an awful lot of bonus proration being transferred from old contract to new here, so the numbers get messy pretty quickly…

Potential Brand New, From Scratch Contract

We’re offering up a 5 year, $287.5M contract for Josh Allen that begins in 2025 and runs through the 2029 season. A void year in 2030 was added to allow a 2026 option bonus to prorate the full 5 seasons.

Bonuses
The deal includes a $45M signing bonus in 2025, a $45M option bonus in 2026, and early March roster bonuses of $25M in each of 2027-2029. Annual $1M workout bonuses are carried over from his previous deal, offering plenty of opportunities for Allen to get cash in hand throughout the calendar year.

Cash Flow
From a cash flow standpoint, the big number to note here is $155.5M. That’s the 3-year payout on this contract, and it surpasses Lamar Jackson’s current high mark of $155.25M (though Dak Prescott may soon have something to say about this). On the previous deal, Allen was set to earn $39.5M/$38.5M/$40M from 2025-2027. That’s been updated to $51M/$56M/$48.5M in our projection.

Guarantees
This breakdown includes $130M fully guaranteed at signing by way of a $45M signing bonus (2025), $45M option bonus (2026), $25M roster bonus (2027), and $15M of base salary in 2025-2026. In March of 2026, the $22.5M base salary for 2027 & $25M roster bonus for 2028 will become fully guaranteed. In March of 2027, the $23.75M of base salary for 2028 will become fully guaranteed, placing a $201.25M practical guarantee on this contract. This represents a 70% guarantee for Allen through 2028.

Cap Hits
The cap hits begin to look terrifying pretty quickly on this breakdown, but there are a few things to keep in mind here.

First, Allen’s current cap hit for 2025 is $60.7M. Per our projection, Buffalo would be clearing $24.5M of space, with another $9.5M freed up in 2026 ($56.4M down to $46.9M). A $75.9M cap hit for 2027 looks astronomical today, but with a league salary cap expected to be north of $310M that season, the Bills would only need to process a simple conversion on that $25M roster bonus to make things “doable” through Year 3 of this deal.

A similar conversation can be had about 2028, though it’s very easy to see that the dead cap and void years will begin to pile up quickly - something GM Brandon Beane has done a nice job of avoiding throughout his tenure in Buffalo.

Overall Thoughts
Obviously this is just one way to slice this loaf of bread. The deal could be constructed with a much more front-loaded outlook, make cap hits in 2027-2028 easier to work with, and making for less need to kick the can down the road. But any way you look at it, starting over fresh with Josh Allen next spring/summer comes with an awful lot of financial challenges.

A Do-Nothing Approach

At least for 2025, this seems to be the most likely scenario. Not because Josh Allen doesn’t deserve to be earning Top 10 QB money (cash, not AAV). Rather, the current deal just simply holds too much paid out bonus proration on it to tinker with next year.

2025 will be the final year of proration from the original $16.5M 2021 signing bonus, and the 2nd to last year of proration from the $42.4M 2022 option bonus. The contract has also gone through two significant cap conversions in 2023 & 2024 that have laid out bonus proration through the 2028 season.

Waiting until after 2025 to get serious about a new contract for Allen eliminates over $21M of bonus that would need to transfer over and be dealt with immediately. In 2026, Allen’s contract will have 3 years, $120M remaining on it which is still way too early for many franchises to discuss extending out of, but might be the right time for Buffalo to put their QB1 into a more competitive, representative contract for the current times.

Potential 2026 Renegotiation

For our 2026 projection, we've upped the overall value of the contract to 5 years, $300M for purposes of general inflation (and additional QB contracts that may then be on the books). This should still represent a near but not at the top of the market price point for Allen & the Bills. The signing and option bonuses have been increased to $50M each, but for the most part, the year-to-year & guarantee structure of the deal remains the same from our 2025 projection.

Prediction

Allen plays out 2024 at his $30M cash salary, further accentuates his place as a Top 2 quarterback in the league, and puts the Bills' front office in a position where they feel somewhat obligated to make a move.

The better business move for Buffalo is clearly a "sweeten the cash flow" approach, so Allen sees a significant pay raise ($10M-$12M per year)& an early guarantee on all of his 2026 compensation across both 2025 & 2026, with a penciled in plan to formally extend their QB1 during the 2027 offseason (assuming all is right and well).


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