With about 5 weeks of regular season baseball remaining, the upcoming free agency picture is becoming more and more in focus. Before the hustle and bustle of the postseason, and a few last minute extensions come to fruition, Spotrac dives into players headed for unrestricted free agency, or team/player option decision in the coming weeks and months, including financial valuations for each.
Every year Spotrac runs the list of available (or potentially available) free agents through their valuation algorithm, a tool that uses previous 2-year datasets, a comparable player grading system, adjustments for age, & a few other bells and whistles to output the mathematical baseline for where a player stands financially speaking at any given time.
Here are the Top 5 valuations for the upcoming 2025 MLB Free Agent Season:
There are three names out of the gate who should garner significant interest this winter - though Shane Bieber & Max Fried both come with their own version of injury red flags. Burnes has a chance to be MLB’s next $200M pitcher, something only 8 players (including Ohtani) have garnered. Free Agent SP | SP Market Values
The Yankees have the ability to void Cole’s opt-out by adding a $36M salary to 2029, making this a 5 year, $180M outlook. He projects to a 5 year, $179M deal in our system. Sometimes things just work out nicely.
Snell can opt-out of a 1 year, $30M contract to join free agency. He projects to a 5 year, $130M deal in our system.
Roki Sasaki (JPN, 22)
Not Yet Posted
The 22-year-old "LeBron James of Japanese Baseball" would enter MLB as a team-controlled player if he early-posts in 2025 (as Ohtani did back in 2017). He'd be forfeiting millions to do so, but there's still at least a glimmer of hope across the league that he'll become available this winter.
On pace to post his 3rd straight low 3 ERA campaign, Wacha may be headed for a much longer guarantee in 2025. He projects toward a 3 year, $58M contract in our system.
A model of consistency down the stretch, makes an opt-out for a long-term guarantee more & more likely. Manaea projects toward another $14M per year deal in our system.
RELIEF PITCHERS
Tanner Scott likely enters the winter as the most sought after reliever, though Carlos Estevez will have something to say about it with a big run down the stretch. Devin Williams should already regret adding a 2025 club option to his contract, while super-vets Chapman & Jensen have done enough to get paid yet again. Free Agent RP | RP Market Values
Backed up a 31-save 2023 in LA with an even more efficient & productive 2024. The Phillies aren’t afraid to spend big annually, so it’s expected that they’ll be early bidders.
Jansen is finishing out a 2/32 contract this season, so the math remains consistent as he approaches his age 37 season. Will anyone buy him at this price though?
Age drops Chapman’s value a touch from his $10.5M 2024 salary, but the numbers are still right there. He’s still striking out 2 batters per inning on average.
Baltimore was definitely hoping for more than half a year out of Kimbrel, but that appears to be the shelf life on his dominance. A $1M buyout plus a trip back to the open market seems almost certain.
Williams traded an inflated 2024 salary ($7.25M) for his 1st year of freedom. The Brewers will pick up this salary, delaying what could be MLB’s next $100M RP contract.
A deadline acquisition from Philly, Dominguez has been a bit of a rollercoaster for Baltimore, making a $500,000 buyout more likely.
CATCHERS
A weak class got even more fragile when the Colorado Rockies outright released Elias Diaz, who remains unsigned at the time of this piece. Barring a few trades (or a blockbuster extension for Adley Rutschman), this winter will be about depth at the catcher position. Free Agent C | C Market Values
Well, this is awkward. Diaz remains our top-valued catcher despite having been released by Colorado. He remains unsigned, and is likely headed toward an incentive-laden 1 year deal for 2025
After 2 disastrous seasons in NY, McCann has somewhat righted the ship in Baltimore. He’ll be seeking a slightly north of minimum depth contract if he wants to continue his career.
While a $3.5M salary for a solid depth catcher isn’t a daunting ask, Maile’s value has dropped to around $1.8M in our system. A $500,000 buyout is likely here.
The Dodgers can punt on this salary for no buyout, making this a likely move as they juggle bigtime tax dollars.
1ST BASEMEN
Can Pete Alonso lift up a first base market that has really struggled to hold financial weight in the modern era? A position once filled with blockbuster contracts now boasts many players transplanted from another spot on the field for long stretches. Alonso isn’t exactly bringing his most productive stat line with him to the open market, but the interest will be immense. Free Agent 1B | 1B Market Values
Alonso’s valuation is benefiting heavily from a big 2023, as his 2024 production has been a bit of a step back. First Baseman contracts have been largely devalued in the modern game, so a $200M+ outlook seems aggressive.
Walker has accumulated a 12+ WAR over the past 3 seasons, putting himself into serious consideration for a big payday this winter. Age isn’t on his side however.
An arm fracture torpedoed much of Rizzo’s 2024, making an already declining situation even worse. The Yankees are expected to take on the $6M buyout here.
A knee injury has derailed much of Flores’ 2024. If he doesn’t hang up the cleats, returning on this $3.5M salary seems like good business.
2ND BASEMEN
Gleyber Torres’ walk-year has been a bit of a mess, putting his future in NY in serious doubt and greatly hampering his mathematical value heading toward the open market. An extremely thin second baseman class could force teams to spend a little extra to take a chance on his revival. Free Agent 2B | 2B Market Values
After hopeful steps forward in both 2022 & 2023, Torres’ 2024 has been a bit of a rocky ride. He was on pace for a near $20M per year deal at one point, but that seems far-fetched now.
Polanco is on pace to have a better 2024 than a 2023 season that scored him $10.5M. He projects to a 4 year, $55M extension, so a $12M re-up seems fitting.
Lowe is one of the most productive 2nd Basemen in baseball, making options of $10.5M for 2025 & $11.5M for 2026 veritable steals. He projects to a 4 year, $83M contract in our system.
SHORTSTOPS
After two winters with extremely strong shortstop classes, the 2024 list leaves plenty to be desired. With that said, Adames would bring a rock solid resume with him to free agency - though it seems plausible that the Brewers never let him get there. Free Agent SS | SS Market Values
Adames has now put together three consecutive seasons that separate him from the rest of this pack. The $25M per year price tag may prove to be a little high, but a $150M+ contract shouldn’t be.
The long-time vet carries a WAR near 2, an OPS well north of .700 and starts all over the Dodgers’ infield. There’s enough value there to warrant a $5M re-up, but LAD’s finances are tricky…
For a player known mostly for his defense, Kim has become a surebet 15+ HR, 25+ SB, .700+ OPS player in his prime years. He carries a $12M valuation in our system, making an opt-out very possible.
3RD BASEMEN
The Astros revived 2024 season could lead them to retain Bregman’s services, but he’ll top more than a few big boards if he’s allowed to hit the open market. Despite consistent production and a healthy valuation ($25M per year) in our system, Matt Chapman’s opt-out could be a risk after going through a largely unsuccessful free agent campaign last winter. Free Agent 3Bs | 3B Market Values
The overall numbers are down a bit in 2024, but Bregman now has 3-straight seasons of solid production. The Boras client will hit the open market as one of the top free agents available.
Chapman can opt out of a remaining 2 years, $36M with San Francisco and take another crack at the open market. He holds a 4 year, $107M valuation in our system with 4 straight high production seasons under his belt.
A tumultuous last 5 seasons culminated with a completely lost 2024 due to injury, setting up Chicago to take on the $5M buyout to move off of this $70M mistake of a contract.
The overall power has been down a bit the past two seasons, but he’s still posting numbers worthy of strong pay. Suarez carries a 2 year, $25M valuation in our system, making his $15M option price an interesting call.
LEFT FIELDERS
Hernandez can’t take another 1 year deal with a contending team again - can he? On a similar note, it’s time for teams to start taking Jurickson Profar’s career more seriously - even if he never lives up to his #1 overall prospect tag. Free Agent LFs | LF Market Values
Verdugo’s been trending toward a $15M per year deal over the past few seasons, but his big dip in power production this past year in NY could give GMs pause. Age is on his side here however.
O’Neill found his 2021 stroke this season, becoming a worthy deadline flip for STL as he nears the open market. He’ll only need 1 team to believe he can keep up this pace to secure
Signed to a 1 year, $1M contract on Feb. 12th, Profar has been one of the most reliable hitters for the Padres in 2024. He’s worthy of a multi-year guarantee this time around.
CENTERFIELDERS
An already quiet crop could become nearly vacant if Bellinger (who only played half of his 2024 season in CF) decides to stick with his current Cubs’ contract. Bader, a true defensive CF, should be the big breadwinner here at the end of the day. Free Agent CFs | CF Market Values
The Mets secured Bader at a $10.5M salary and he’s nearly matched his 2023 production across the board. But it might be a stretch to consider him for 8 figures again this time around.
Injuries are still a big part of Bellinger’s story, so opting-out of his current $26M+ deal through 2026 seems a risk.
RIGHT FIELDERS
One of the stronger position crops set to hit the market this winter, highlighted by maybe the 2nd most sought after free agent (Soto) in MLB history (Ohtani). Free Agent RFs | RF Market Values
Everyone said the Soto/Yankees marriage would be a dream walk-year scenario for Soto. Everyone was right. There will be multiple teams attempting to lock in the 2nd largest contract in MLB history.
Kepler had resuscitated his career in 2023 with a 25 HR, .816 OPS campaign. 2024 has reverted back to a shell of that though, making it hard to put a finger on his true value heading toward the open market.
Haniger thanked SF for the 3 year, $43.5M contract with a career-worst performance in 2023. He’s done little to right the ship, despite an offseason move to Seattle. Consider this option already exercised.
While Margot has avoided injury in 2024, he’s also commonly avoided the starting lineup as well. There’s a $2M buyout associated with this $12M option, but the Rays will be on the hook for it.
Grichuk’s role has diminished each of the past few seasons, and the overall power numbers have fallen off of a cliff as of 2024. Arizona is expected to take the $500,000 buyout over the $4M raise.
DESIGNATED HITTERS
The open market will feature once highly sought after vets who are quickly aging out of the league, which may set up nicely or Joc Pederson, who could opt-out into a strong payday. Free Agent DHs | DH Market Values
Don’t let the age fool you. This is still a player slugging .400, hitting for double digit doubles & homers, while posting a .700+ OPS - something he’s done each of his 14 MLB seasons. He values toward a salary that doubles his past two paydays ($5M).
A late signing in 2024, Martinez proved plenty of times over that he’s still worthy of a spot in the middle of a batting lineup, though likely at a lesser cost than the $12M he earned this past season.
Like a fine wine. Ozuna posted career numbers in 2023, and is on pace to easily surpass those in 2024. Even as a full-time DH, $16M seems like a bit of a steal for 2025.
Any hope that the power was starting to come around from decent 2022/2023 campaigns has been dashed with a miserable 2024. Baltimore will opt for the $3M buyout here, especially as CHW will be paying for half of it.
Pederson is having his most efficient season since 2019, which could set up an opt-out scenario to push for a multi-year guarantee. There’s a $3M buyout on the deal. Pederson carries a 2 year, $30M projection in our system.
O’Hearn is on pace to match his 2023 production. Will that be enough to hand him a more than double raise in 2025? O’Hearn carries a 2 year, $14M projection in our system.
ATL Atlanta UnitedAtlanta United FC
MTL MontrealCF Montreal
CLT CharlotteCharlotte FC
CHI FireChicago Fire
CLB Columbus CrewColumbus Crew
DC UnitedD.C. United
CIN CincinnatiFC Cincinnati
MIA Inter MiamiInter Miami FC
NSH NashvilleNashville SC
NE RevolutionNew England Revolution
NYC New York CityNew York City FC
RBNY Red BullsNew York Red Bulls
ORL Orlando CityOrlando City
PHI UnionPhiladelphia Union
TOR TorontoToronto FC
ATX AustinAustin FC
COL RapidsColorado Rapids
DAL DallasFC Dallas
HOU DynamoHouston Dynamo
LA GalaxyLA Galaxy
LAFC Los AngelesLos Angeles FC
MIN MinnesotaMinnesota United FC
POR TimbersPortland Timbers
RSL Real Salt LakeReal Salt Lake
SD San Diego FCSan Diego FC
SJ EarthquakesSan Jose Earthquakes
SEA SoundersSeattle Sounders FC
SKC Kansas CitySporting Kansas City
STL St. Louis CITYSt. Louis CITY SC
VAN WhitecapsVancouver Whitecaps FC
ACFC Angel City FCAngel City FC
BFC Bay FCBay FC
CHI Chicago Red StarsChicago Red Stars
HOU Houston DashHouston Dash
KC Kansas City CurrentKansas City Current
NJNY NJ/NY Gotham FCNJ/NY Gotham FC
NC North Carolina CourageNorth Carolina Courage
ORL Orlando PrideOrlando Pride
POR Portland Thorns FCPortland Thorns FC
LOU Racing Louisville FCRacing Louisville FC
SD San Diego Wave FCSan Diego Wave FC
SEA Seattle Reign FCSeattle Reign FC
UTA Utah Royals FCUtah Royals FC
WAS Washington SpiritWashington Spirit
NEWS
© USA TODAY Sports
