The Boston Celtics And Tomorrow’s Problems

Keith Smith
Keith Smith, Resident NBA ExpertSeptember 13, 2024
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The Boston Celtics have committed a lot of money to their roster for this season and for the next several years. Over $1.1 billion in guaranteed money, in fact. That’s a whole lot committed salary. More than any NBA team has ever locked in for in history.

However, as lyrical philosophers A Tribe Called Quest taught us (and Oklahoma City Thunder executive Sam Presti later referenced): “Scared money don’t make none”.

We recently examined how teams are building their rosters in the Apron Era. Some were conservative. Some made trades before hitting the first or second apron. Others focused on adding talent on minimum contracts. A few teams kind of threw their hands up and did nothing.

The Celtics loaded up pre-Apron Era and then went way past being in for a penny, in for pound. Boston is in for over 100 billion pennies and over one billion pounds. That’s an indisputable fact. The real question: Will this kind of roster building work?

So far, so good from the Celtics perspective. They won the 2024 NBA Finals, which justified a $44 million tax bill on top of $185 million in salaries for a total outlay of nearly a quarter-of-a-billion dollars.

It’s hard to argue against the approach right now. But is that approach sustainable long term? Unlike all of the other apron teams, which have fairly easy pathways out of their current situations, Boston seems pretty locked in. As much as that’s fine for right now, how will it look in two or three or four seasons?

While that question is completely fair, it’s also worrying about things down the line more than things right now. If we overly focus on the future, we often fail to thrive in the present.

In every possible way, the Celtics are content to let tomorrow’s problems be tomorrow’s problems. Today, there’s another title to chase.

Recently, Boston head coach Joe Mazzulla said he doesn’t really like the term “defending a title”. He prefers for his team to stay on the attack. Yes, the Celtics won the 2024 title. They’ll celebrate that again on opening night with rings and an NBA-record 18th banner being raised to the rafters.

Then the game will tip and the focus will turn to winning Banner 19. That’s how it works in Boston. You celebrate a title, then you chase the next one. What you’ve done is important and to be celebrated, but never at the expense of what comes next.

That mindset has informed the Celtics roster building strategy. For years, with roughly the same core, Boston chased Banner 18. As they finally secured it, Brad Stevens and staff went about making sure they’d be able go after Banner 19 and beyond. But that process actually started about a year in advance.

In late June of 2023 news broke that the Boston Celtics were close to acquiring Kristaps Porzingis from the Washington Wizards in a three-team deal that would send Malcolm Brogdon to the LA Clippers. That deal fell apart when the Clippers expressed concerns over Brogdon’s health.

Boston quickly pivoted to the Memphis Grizzlies and trading Marcus Smart. With how quickly the Celtics pivoted on that deal, there’s at least a decent chance that Boston and Memphis had previously discussed a deal centered around Smart.

At any rate, Boston now had Porzingis in the fold and had started the process of resetting around Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown, who Brad Stevens had previously called the organization’s “pillars”.

Fast forward a few months, and the Celtics – who fortunately still had Brogdon and his $22 million salary – traded for Jrue Holiday. This deal happened only a few days after Holiday had been traded to the Portland Trail Blazers, who were rebuilding in the wake of dealing Damian Lillard to the Milwaukee Bucks in the same deal.

Now, you’re probably saying “I know Boston got Porzingis and Holiday. Great moves, but that’s ancient history. Why does this matter now?”

When the new CBA went into effect, NBA teams were given what we like to call a “get your books in order” years. Whenever the NBA makes major changes to the cap or luxury system/structure, they give teams an opportunity to line things up for success cap- and tax-wise. In the past, this manifested in the form of an “amnesty provision” through which teams were able to wipe an unwanted contract off their cap sheet.

This time around, the league and union gave teams a buffer year. Some of the burdensome restrictions around the luxury tax and the first and second tax aprons started with the 2023-24 season, but the bulk of them would kick in with the 2024-25 season.

Many teams took advantage of this buffer year and set the stage to drop under the tax or one of the two aprons. The Celtics, and a few others, looked around and said “Last chance to load up!” and went for it.

Had the opportunities to acquire Porzingis and Holiday come a year later, under the full weight of the tax and apron restrictions, Boston might not have either player. They certainly wouldn’t have both players.

Both deals also came with some questions. Porzingis was an injury risk. Holiday was aging and coming off a rough 2023 playoffs. Both Porzingis and Holiday were also entering the final guaranteed years of their contracts. Given the cost (in terms of salary/tax and trading beloved players), both at the time and down the line, these weren’t no-risk acquisitions.

For the first time in a long time, the Celtics chose to go for it right now and to let tomorrow’s problems be tomorrow’s problems.

Shortly after acquiring Kristaps Porzingis, the team signed him to a two-year, $60 million extension. A couple of weeks later, the Celtics and Jaylen Brown signed the then-largest contract in NBA history with a five-year, $285.4 million extension.

After trading for Jrue Holiday on the eve of training camp, Brad Stevens was cautious of running afoul of NBA extension rules and would only say versions of “We hope Jrue is here for a long time”. It was clear there was more to come.

Before the season started, Boston and backup guard Payton Pritchard inked a four-year, $30 million extension. A more then reasonable deal, but yet another added long-term expense.

In season, the Celtics added Xavier Tillman Sr. and Jaden Springer ahead of the trade deadline. Tillman was acquired with the team saying they hoped he wouldn’t just be a rest-of-season addition. Springer came with an additional year left on his rookie scale deal of $4 million for the 2025-26 season.

Then, with the season wrapping up and extension restrictions lifted, Boston took care of keeping Holiday in town with a four-year, $134.4 million extension.

Roughly two months later the Celtics raised the Larry O’Brien trophy.

Preceding the title run, Boston added nearly $514 million in long-term salary through trades and extensions. But Brad Stevens and the Celtics weren’t done. When you’re in for half-a-billion pounds, you might as well be in for a billion pounds.

Things started off fairly relaxed. Boston re-signed Luke Kornet and Xaiver Tillman Sr. to minimum deals. One year for Kornet and two years for Tillman. On top of the two veterans, Neemias Queta signed on for three more years too. With Kristaps Porzingis set to miss the start of the season, the Celtics secured some frontcourt depth.

That trio of deals was Stevens cracking his knuckles before sitting down to bang out a concerto of spending.

Boston then extended Jayson Tatum on the currently-largest contract in NBA history of five years and a projected $313.9 million. Combined with Jaylen Brown’s extension, the pillars are in place for years to come.

The Celtics weren’t done.

Derrick White signed a somewhat surprising extension of $125.9 million over four years. The surprising part was that the Celtics got White for the most they could offer him under the veteran extension rules. White spoke often of finding a home in Boston and didn’t seek to cash in on his growing profile as much as he may have. That’s a major win for the guys in green.

Channeling Danny Ocean saying “You think we need one more?”, Stevens went back to work one more time.

Sam Hauser completed the extension/re-signing splurge by inking a four-year, $45 million deal.

All in all, after dropping nearly $514 million in new deals last season, the champs added nearly $500 million more in new contracts this offseason.

By acquiring (and then extending) Kristaps Porzingis and Jrue Holiday before they wouldn’t have been able to, then extending or re-signing almost everyone else, the Celtics have over $1 billion in committed salary on their books through the 2029-30 season. Oh, and the team is for sale too. That was one of the last newsy dominoes to fall this summer in Boston.

Will a new ownership group look at the cap sheet and decide it’s all too much? Will the team not win at a high enough level to justify spending that much? Will the considerable roster-building restrictions for a second apron team mean shedding a salary or two? Only time will bring those answers.

The Celtics are letting tomorrow’s problems be tomorrow’s problems.

For several years running, the Boston Celtics were a good, but never great team. They made the Eastern Conference Finals in three of four years from 2017 through 2020. They made the 2022 NBA Finals and then back to the East Finals in 2023.

In 2024, the Celtics finally brought home Banner 18 after a 16-year wait.

However, it was that 2022 team that really broke through. After years upon years of ownership saying that they’d pay the tax for a contender, that 2022 NBA Finals appearance seemed to do the convincing. Boston paid the tax in 2023 after several years of dodging the tax (minus a slight payment in 2019). They haven’t looked back since.

Without spending what it took to bring on Jrue Holiday and Kristaps Porzingis, the Celtics don’t win the 2024 NBA Finals.

As A Tribe Called Quest told us: Scared money don’t make none.

Now, the Celtics have zoomed past the second apron. They aren’t quite as expensive this season as the Phoenix Suns or Minnesota Timberwolves. Boston is neck-and-neck with the Milwaukee Bucks, about $50 million behind the Wolves and $150 million behind the Suns in terms of total spending.

It’s next season and beyond when Boston takes the lead in committed salary plus tax penalties. As it stands today, for 11 players, the 2025-26 Celtics are sitting at nearly $445 million in salaries plus tax penalties. That figure will very likely zip well past half-a-billion when all is said and done.

Yes, the cap and tax are set to go up the maximum of 10% for at least each of the next few seasons. But Boston is so far over the second apron, it might take years for it come back into view again. Even in 2026-27, the Celtics are already at over $200 million on the books for just nine players.

Get ready for the term “second apron” to become a regular part of your Boston Celtics lexicon. Effectively, being over the second apron will limit the Celtics to re-signing their own players, signing their own draft picks (which may also be subject to getting moved to the end of first round), signing players to minimum contracts, and making trades where the salaries match exactly and Boston doesn’t send out more than one player.

You know what else? This team doesn’t need a lot of outside help at the moment.

The Boston Celtics went 64-18 last season with the fourth-best net rating in NBA history at +11.6. That was followed by rampaging through the playoffs at 16-3 with a +8.7 net rating. Say what you will about the competition, but that’s a historical level of dominance.

The Celtics aren’t letting worries about the future cost them anything right now. Jayson Tatum, Jaylen Brown, Jrue Holiday, Derrick White, Kristaps Porzingis, Sam Hauser, Payton Pritchard and the previously-extended Al Horford, all got their deals in the last year because Boston wanted to win Banner 18…and then to keep the good times rolling as long as they can.

You can’t ignore the future. Eventually, every bill comes due in the NBA. At some point, the Celtics won’t win enough to justify spending so much money.

But you can’t worry so much about what might happen two or three or four years down the road that you ruin what is pretty great right now.

The Boston Celtics have chosen to let tomorrow’s problems be tomorrow’s problems. That got them Banner 18 and it must just lead to Banner 19 and beyond too.

 


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