NBA Southwest Division Rotation and Roster Battles

Keith Smith
Keith Smith, Resident NBA ExpertSeptember 23, 2024
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#nba #southwest division #dallas mavericks #houston rockets #memphis grizzlies #new orleans pelicans #san antonio spurs
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The openings of NBA training camps are just around the corner. The Boston Celtics and Denver Nuggets open this week, as they are headed to Abu Dhabi for a pair of preseason games. A week later, the other 28 teams will spring into action.

NBA training camp doesn’t come with the same level of excitement of NFL camp or MLB preseason. Nor does it come with the competition for roster spots. Smaller roster and more guaranteed money mean that NBA rosters are generally set when camp opens.

However, all across the league battles for rotation spots will play out. Incumbents are trying to hold off newcomers. Young players are trying to break through. Vets are trying to hang on for one more season. In some cases, there are roster spots up for grabs too.

We’re going to go team by team and look some of the most interesting battles to monitor as training camps open. First up are the Southwest Division teams!

Dallas Mavericks

Starting Small Forward

Luka Doncic, Kyrie Irving and P.J. Washington all seem locked in as starters. At some point, Dereck Lively will overtake Daniel Gafford for good (and it may be on opening night). At small forward it seems pretty simple: It’s Klay Thompson…right?

Yes, at least initially. Thompson was brought to Dallas to start. But what if Naji Marshall’s shooting improvement last season is real? Did you know that Marshall and Thompson both shot 38.7% from three last year? And Marshall wasn’t benefitting from Stephen Curry’s gravity, nor the playmaking he’ll get this season with Luka Doncic and Kyrie Irving setting him up. At this point, Marshall is also a better and more versatile defender than Thompson is.

Thompson will open the season as a starter, but Marshall is going to push him. And don’t bet against Marshall eventually snagging a starting spot of his own. He brings too many tools to Dallas to keep him off the floor for long.

Houston Rockets

Forward Rotation

The Rockets forward rotation is an example of a good problem to have. Houston is set at the guard position with Fred VanVleet, Jalen Green, Amen Thompson and rookie Reed Sheppard. At center the Rockets have Alperen Sengun and a terrific veteran backup in Steven Adams.

That means sorting out the forward position will have to be done without sliding a player either up or down a position when the team is healthy. And sorting it out is a tough, but welcomed challenge. Jabari Smith Jr. and Dillon Brooks will start. Tari Eason (who has returned to full health) and Cam Whitmore seemed poised to get the first cracks at backup minutes. That leaves veteran Jeff Green and wing Jae’Sean Tate on the outside looking in.

This is by no means a bad thing. The Rockets have rebuilt their depth with some good drafting and smart veteran acquisitions. Now, it’s up to Ime Udoka to figure out how to make it all work as Houston chases a postseason spot.

Memphis Grizzlies

Small Forward Rotation

Memphis should be back to relatively full health to open the 2024-25 season. That means instead of showing up each day and hoping to just have eight players healthy enough to play, Taylor Jenkins will have to make some real lineup decisions.

Nowhere is that more prevalent than at the small forward spot. The plan last season was that Marcus Smart would get those minutes initially, in addition to functioning as the backup point guard. That may still be the plan, and would give the Grizzlies three ballhandlers and playmakers in their starting lineup, with Ja Morant and Desmond Bane both healthy as well.

Vince Williams Jr. emerged out of the mess of last season as a legitimate NBA rotation player, and a potential starter. GG Jackson showed plenty of potential last season, after starting the year on a two-way deal. Unfortunately, Jackson is going to miss the start of the season after surgery to repair a facture in his right foot. Jake LaRavia also showed signs of real improvement late last season.

With a healthy roster – minus Jackson – Jenkins has the versatility to play this a few different ways, even before Jackson returns. He could also choose to go smaller at times by inserting Luke Kennard or John Konchar to get more shooting on the floor. Getting this particular position solved has been a real challenge during the Grizzlies rise. This time around, they seem to have the players to find a workable solution.

New Orleans Pelicans

Everyone Everywhere All At Once Except a Center

New Orleans has a ton of talent. Like, really, a TON of talent. Zion Williamson, Brandon Ingram, Dejounte Murray, C.J. McCollum, Herb Jones and Trey Murphy III are all starting-caliber players.

Sadly, none of them are a center.

The means the Pelicans have six starters for four spots. (We didn’t forget Jose Alvarado, who will see backup PG minutes. Or Jordan Hawkins, but who knows how he gets minutes?) Unless Willie Green goes super non-traditional and decides to go small and run Williamson as his starting center, this could be an issue for New Orleans that only a trade will fix. And big trades this late in the offseason are fairly uncommon, as are major early-season deals.

Now, for what it’s worth, Basketball Reference says Williamson has logged about 9% of his career minutes as a center. Last season was the most he’s run at the five at 14%. And that was while playing the most games and minutes in his career.

But playing center and starting at center are two pretty different things. The former is something we’ll probably see quite a bit. The latter is something the Pelicans will probably be loathe to do. That means we’re going to see Daniel Theis or Karlo Matkovic or Yves Missi (if either of the latter two are ready as rookies) as at least the opener, and playing the first 5-8 minutes of each half.

Beyond the whole “Who plays center?” stuff is that the Pelicans still have six starters. Barring a trade, we can write Williamson, Ingram and Murray into the lineup in pen. Does McCollum’s veteran-standing lock him into the fifth spot? (Total aside: McCollum might be able to add another two or three productive years onto his career by transitioning into a bench role, a la Eric Gordon over the last several seasons.) Jones is one of the best defensive players on the planet. You don’t get the most out of him by bringing him in against second-line players. Murphy is a bouncy shooter, who is ready for a full-scale know-him-on-a-national-level breakout season.

Having talent is huge in the NBA. But building a team isn’t a fantasy basketball exercise. Real teams need to function. Sometimes you have too many guys. And sometimes that turns sour. The three forms of currency in the NBA are salary, minutes and shots. The Pelicans are coming short in the latter two, which impact the first one. Willie Green has a tricky situation to sort out and some difficult conversations to have, probably as early as Day 1 of camp.

San Antonio Spurs

Wing/Guard Rotation

The earth may orbit the sun, but in San Antonio everything orbits around Victor Wembanyama. All that really matters for the Spurs over the course of this year is finding out who fits with the generational young star and who doesn’t. To further those efforts, the Spurs added Chris Paul and Harrison Barnes as veterans to help a young team find their way.

The frontcourt seems fairly stable. Wembanyama and Barnes will be joined by Jeremy Sochan and Zach Collins as the primary frontcourt guys. Depending on lineups, Keldon Johnson, Devin Vassell, Julian Champagnie and Malaki Branham will get the remaining small forward minutes.

Paul and Vassell will start at the two guard spots. It’s behind them where things will take some sorting out. Tre Jones has earned the right to at least open the season backing up Paul. But rookie guard Stephon Castle is going to push Jones and push him hard for the backup role. By the end of the season, the Spurs would love to see Castle putting himself in the mix to start in 2025-26.

If Castle is off the ball or in a secondary ballhandler role to open the year, that pushes Branham into a tough spot where he’s kind of a backup small forward. And there probably aren’t any minutes left for Blake Wesley at all. That’s two former first-round picks on the outside looking in.

None of this is a bad thing. The cream will rise to the top and no one is being gifted minutes in San Antonio. Whoever emerges will have earned their time. Paul and Barnes aren’t likely to be long-term Spurs. Their job is to get the young guys ready, even if that means it’s at their own expense minutes- and role-wise. Gregg Popovich and the front office are going to develop guys to play with Wembanyama or they’re going to go get them. And it’s going to happen sooner, rather than later.

 


#nba #southwest division #dallas mavericks #houston rockets #memphis grizzlies #new orleans pelicans #san antonio spurs
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