Postseason Payrolls, Top Paid Outlooks & Top Free Agent Valuations

Michael Ginnitti
Michael Ginnitti, Managing Editor & NFL/MLB ExpertOctober 02, 2024
© USA TODAY Sports

2024 Playoff Teams

NATIONAL LEAGUE

Los Angeles Dodgers (#5 Payroll)
Obviously this ranking is heavily suppressed by the $68M annual deferral in Shohei Ohtani’s historic contract, but the Dodgers still moved up a spot from their 6th place 2023 ranking with an aggressive offseason across the board, & won the NL pennant despite a rash of injuries to their pitching staff.

Philadelphia Phillies (#4 Payroll)
The Phillies have carried a Top 5 payroll each of the past 4 seasons and now possess 6 contracts of $100M or more, and their entire starting roster is on the books for 2025 as well.

Milwaukee Brewers (#21 Payroll)
The Brewers shed a coach, an ace, and a few notable bats this offseason - and still won the NL Central by 10 games. They’ll have the resources to be aggressive this winter if they choose.

San Diego Padres (#15 Payroll)
Despite a bounty of expensive veteran contracts, the Padres amazing stretch run was sparked by a youth movement in 2024. There’s potential for real staying power with this roster going forward. San Diego has held a Top 5 payroll for the past 3 seasons, but find themselves in the middle of the pack to finish the 2024 campaign.

Atlanta Braves (#6 Payroll)
The Braves regular season might be defined by injuries, but they’ll have a say in the postseason regardless. Atlanta will see a significant portion of their starting rotation and bullpen hit the open market this winter, so look for an aggressive offseason (again).

New York Mets (#1 Payroll)
The league’s top payroll snuck into the backend of the postseason with one of the crazier regular season games in recent memory. The Mets carried $87M of retained salary this season, which is more than the Pirates or A’s allocated to their entire payrolls this year alone. They’ll have plenty of decisions to make with their starting pitching & the Polar Bear this winter.

AMERICAN LEAGUE

New York Yankees (#2 Payroll)
It wasn’t always pretty, but the Yankees were steadily one of the best teams in the American League for most of 2024, and should be considered a prohibitive favorite this month. Juan Soto has been a dream fit in this lineup (and stadium). Will it continue after 2024?

Cleveland Guardians (#23 Payroll)
Projected by many to miss the playoffs altogether, Cleveland found magic in a young starting rotation and held on for dear life down the stretch to capture another AL Central title, and the 2 seed in the AL. Only two players on this team carry a salary north of of $10M in 2024, and one of them (Shane Bieber) was on the shelf for the entire season: Value-based winning at its finest.

Houston Astros (#3 Payroll)
One of the most expensive Astros teams in franchise history turned an extremely slow start into yet another AL West title this season. Houston held the 3rd most cash allocated to the Injured List in 2024, but found lightning in a bottle in many areas of the roster yet again. They’ll enter October with more injury questions, but shouldn’t be counted out (obviously).

Baltimore Orioles (#22 Payroll)
The Orioles answered the “did they do enough this offseason/deadline” question loudly but sliding miserably back to earth down the stretch. This team is young and talented enough to flip the switch in October and make an Arizona-like run in 2024 if a few bounces go their way. Look for a much more aggressive front office this winter (maybe).

Kansas City Royals (#20 Payroll)
The Royals pieced together a lot of “what-if” veterans this past winter to fall in around clear as day stars in Bobby Witt Jr.. and Vinnie Pasquantino. For the most part, their offseason risks paid off - though things got a little rocky through the dog days of 2024. Witt Jr. might need to be all-world to keep them alive in October, but this is a must-watch franchise this coming winter.

Detroit Tigers (#26 Payroll)
The Tigers were dead to rights halfway through 2024, but made a remarkable turnaround to sneak into October in the season’s final week. Sure-bet Cy Young Tarik Skubal & breakout star Riley Greene appear to be cornerstone pieces for a franchise that has been cursed by top of the draft busts over the past few iterations. The time to start spending in Detroit may be here.

How the Top-Paid Players Fared

Shohei Ohtani (DH, Dodgers)

Contract APY: $70M
Adjusted APY: $46M

Let’s get the asterisk out of the way ($2M cash today, $68M cash later). If he were earning all $70M in 2024, would anyone even blink an eye? Two things are true about Shohei Ohtani: He’s historically great & having him in the postseason is better than not. He’s locked up through the 2033 season.

Aaron Judge (OF, Yankees)

Contract APY: $40M

Nearly 2 years out from signing his 9 year, $360M deal to remain in NY, Judge posted his best all-around season to date, finishing 2024 with a .322 batting average, 1.159 OPS, 58 homers, 144 RBIs, & a whopping 10.82 WAR. Dropping Juan Soto ahead of him in the lineup worked about as well as we all thought it would. Judge is under contract through the 2031 season (with no opt-outs available).

Jacob deGrom (SP, Rangers)

Contract APY: $37M

The Rangers have now paid deGrom $70M for 9 starts (including just 3 in 2024), but better days appear to be on the horizon. The 36-year-old has 3 years, $115M remaining on his contract.

Gerrit Cole (SP, Yankees)

Contract APY: $36M

Cole just finished his 12th regular season, and his 11th with an ERA below 4.0 (3.41 in 2024). Injury held him to just 17 starts this year, but he was as effective (and valuable) as ever for a Yankees team looking to make a deep run in October. The 34-year-old has an opt-out available this winter, but the Yankees can void it with an extra $36M salary tacked on in 2029 (a likely outcome).

Mike Trout (OF, Angels)

Contract APY: $35.5M

The last time Mike Trout played 150 regular season games was 2016. The 33-year-old has now seen action in just 111 games over the past two seasons (including just 29 in 2024), which could make the next 6 years, $212.7M pretty uncomfortable for the Angels.

Top Offseason Signings

(See Ohtani above.)

Yoshinobu Yamamoto (SP, Dodgers)

12 years, $325,000,000

The 25-year-old free agent out of Japan posted a 3.00 ERA  (1.71 WAR) in 18 starts for the Dodgers this year, while also missing 4 months due to a shoulder issue. He’s locked in through 2029 before his first of two opt-outs becomes available

Bobby Witt Jr. (SS, Royals)

11 years, $288,777,777

Well that worked out. The #2 overall pick back in 2019 broke onto the scene in 2023, but broke into the MVP conversation in 2024 (.332/.389/.588/.977, 32 HRs, 109 RBIs, 31 SBs). He’ll earn $48.7M combined over the next 4 seasons (buying out his remaining team control) before things ramp up in 2028.

Aaron Nola (SP, Phillies)

7 years, $172,000,000

Nola returned to Philly on a deal that now guarantees him over $228M earned on the field throughout his career. He responded with a very Nola-like season (3.57 ERA, 3.60 WAR, 33 starts) helping the Phillies garner the #2 seed this October. Nola’s deal contains no options through 2030.

Will Smith (C, Dodgers)

10 years, $140,000,000

Smith has started 370 games for the Dodgers in the past three seasons. He’s both incredibly reliable & productive, posting yet another 20 HR, 75 RBI campaign in LA. The 29-year-old is locked in through 2033 with no options.

Tyler Glasnow (SP, Dodgers)

5 years, $136,562,500

The injury bug stuck with Glasnow per his move out West, as Glasnow missed the better part of 2 ½ months this season due to back and elbow injuries. He’s one of the game’s best when healthy, but it might be a rollercoaster ride through the next 4 years, $111M+.

Jung-hoo Lee (OF, Giants)

6 years, $113,000,000

The 25-year-old outfielder out of South Korea saw only 158 plate appearances this season before a  shoulder injury ended his season. He’s locked in through 2027 before a player opt-out becomes available.

Played into a Payday

Juan Soto (OF, Yankees)

Current Projection: 14 years. $514M

Soto finished 2024 with 41 HRs, 109 RBIs, and a near 8 WAR for the Yankees, linking up with Aaron Judge as the best 1-2 punch in the game. There will be a bidding war (despite the $500M valuation), but it’s hard to imagine the Yankees losing out in the end.

Teoscar Hernandez (OF, Dodgers)

Current Projection: 3 years, $72M

Hernandez posted a career year after (somewhat surprisingly) joining LAD on a 1 year, $23.5M deal. It’s impossible to imagine he won’t secure a multi-year guarantee this time around.

Max Fried (SP, Braves)

Current Projection: 6 years, $136M

Fried’s overall production was a little less consistent in 2024 than it’s been in recent years, but the resume as a whole speaks for itself as he enters the open market for the first time. He’ll join Corbin Burnes as the pre-eminent starter options in free agency.

Willy Adames (SS, Brewers)

Current Projection: 6 years, $152M

A shortstop who hits for power and all of a sudden decided to start stealing bases? Insert dollar sign emoji. A return to Milwaukee on something team friendly is certainly possible, but Adames will have big boy offers to change cities this winter if he so desires.

Alex Bregman (3B, Astros)

Current Projection: 4 years, $120M

Bregman just finished a 5 year, $100M contract in Houston and continues to post above average production with ridiculous consistency (pencil him in for a .260 average, 25 HRs, & a 4+ WAR every April). There will be a big push to keep Bregman an Astro for life, but the corner infield market this winter is weak.


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