Predicting Notable MLB Option Decisions

Michael Ginnitti
Michael Ginnitti, Managing Editor & NFL/MLB ExpertOctober 15, 2024
© USA TODAY Sports

As the MLB Postseason nears the finish line, we’ll begin to focus our attention toward the 2025 offseason, beginning with players who carry an option on their contract. The following is a run-down of notable players who have the ability to exercise an early opt-out, hold a player option, or carry a club/mutual option for the 2025 season, including predictions for each outcome.

RELATED: 2025 MLB Free Agency

PLAYER OPT-OUTS

Gerrit Cole (SP, Yankees)

The 34-year-old has the ability to opt-out of the remaining 4 years, $144M - but there’s a catch. The Yankees can cancel that opt-out by tacking on an extra $36M salary to the 2029 season, making the contract 5 years, $180M. That seems to be the play here for both sides.

Prediction: Opt-Out/Buy-Back

Cody Bellinger (OF/1B, Cubs)

The 29-year-old secured $27.5M from the Cubs in 2024, but his production dropped off about 40% from his 2023 resurrection season. Bellinger has a $27.5M option for 2025, then another $25M option in 2026 thereafter.

Prediction: Opt-In

Robbie Ray (SP, Giants)

The 33-year-old has the ability to opt-out of a remaining 2 years, $50M. He spent all but 7 starts worth of time on the injured list in 2024, and hasn’t been a full-time pitcher since 2022.

Prediction: Opt-In

Lucas Giolito (SP, Red Sox)

The 30-year-old missed all of 2024 from offseason elbow surgery, but should be in full-form by 2025 Spring Training. He carries a $19M salary in 2025, with a $14M-$19M option in 2026 (based on 2025 innings).

Prediction: Opt-In

Rhys Hoskins (1B, Brewers)

The 31-year-old signed a 2 year, $34M free agent contract on the heels of a torn ACL that included $12M in 2024, $18M in 2025, & a $4M buyout on an $18M mutual option in 2026. Hoskins had a productive 2024 campaign (especially as it pertains to power), but it’s tough to imagine him finding a better situation both financially and from a team standpoint.

Prediction: Opt-In

PLAYER OPTIONS

Blake Snell (SP, Giants)

Snell skipped his final SF start, leaving most to believe that he’s already made his decision about declining the 1 year, $30M remaining on his current contract and re-entering the open market this winter. The near 32-year-old is a $26M per year player in our system.

Prediction: Declined

Mitch Haniger (OF, Mariners)

Haniger hasn’t come close to repeating the 23 double, 39 homer, 100 RBI campaign he posted in 2021, making his 3 year, $43.5M contract a bit uncomfortable for San Francisco & now Seattle respectively. 2025 comes with a $15.5M player option that Haniger would be foolish not to play out.

Prediction: Exercised

Michael Wacha (SP, Royals)

Wacha rewarded KC’s 2 year, $32M free agent contract with career numbers across the board, putting him in line to opt-out of the remaining $16M for 2025 and head back to the open market. The 33-year-old carries a 3 year, $60M valuation in our system.

Prediction: Declined

Sean Manaea (SP, Mets)

Manaea opted-out of a 2 year, $25M contract with San Francisco last winter, into a 2 year, $28M contract with New York. He posted his best numbers in three years, and could conceivably be viewed as the Mets’ ace for much of their stretch run. It seems a lock that the 32-year-old will punt on a $13.5M salary for a chance to lock in a multi-year guarantee this winter. He projects toward a 2 year, $30M contract in our system.

Prediction: Declined

Nick Martinez (SP, Reds)

Martinez started 16 games for the 2024 Reds, posting a career-low 3.10 ERA and a career-high 3.98 WAR. The 34-year-old should have no trouble finding a multi-year guarantee to replace his $12M salary next season.

Prediction: Declined

Clayton Kershaw (SP, Dodgers)

Despite making just 7 starts, Kershaw added $2.5M to his 2025 player option, making it a $10M decision next month. Even if the plan is to continue his career, Kershaw most likely opts-out of this salary to free up both he and the Dodgers’ options over the course of the next few months.

Prediction: Declined

Emilio Pagan (RP, Reds)

Pagan was one of the better relievers in baseball as a member of the 2023 Twins, but he couldn’t recreate that magic last year with the Reds. An $8M payday for 2025 seems a shoe-in.

Prediction: Exercised

Hunter Renfroe (OF, Royals)

Renfroe’s overall production has decreased in each of the past 3 seasons, putting his place as an everyday starter very much in question going forward. The 32-year-old probably settles for the $2M pay raise, exercising a $7.57M salary for 2025.

Prediction: Exercised

Chris Stratton (RP, Royals)

Stratton’s 2 year, $8M free agent contract included a $4.5M player option for 2025.The 34-year-old posted a 5.55 ERA, -0.70 WAR in 2024, setting him up to stay within this contract through next season.

Prediction: Exercised

Wandy Peralta (RP, Padres)

Peralta’s 4 year, $16.5M contract includes a player option after each season. A groin injury limited his appearances last year, increasing the likelihood that he remains on this deal through a $4.25M salary for 2025.

Prediction: Exercised

Wilmer Flores (1B, Giants)

Flores spent nearly 4 months on the IL with a knee problem, destroying any chance he might have to recreate his career-year from 2023 (22 doubles, 23 homers, 2.62 WAR). After earning $6.5M in 2024, Flores’ player option for 2025 comes in at $3.5M, so an exercise would mean a pay cut.

Prediction: Exercised

CLUB OPTIONS

Yoan Moncada (3B, White Sox)

Option: $25M ($5M buyout)
Moncado finished out his 5 year extension in 2024, posting only 1 season (2021) worth taking note of. A hip injury derailed his 2024 campaign, setting up the White Sox to take on the $5M buyout in favor of a $25M salary next season.

Prediction: Declined

Anthony Rizzo (1B, Yankees)

Option: $17M ($6M buyout)
Father Time hasn’t been kind to Rizzo both from a production and reliability standpoint of late, putting the Yankees in position to take on the $6M buyout in favor of a $17M salary next season.

Prediction: Declined

Eloy Jimenez (DH, Orioles)

Option: $16.5M ($3M buyout)
Jimenez completed his 6 year extension this season, spending the final 33 games with Baltimore to close it out. He’s 2 years removed from his most formidable season (23 doubles 18 homers, .295 average, 1.79 WAR), but has no real stretch of consistently good play on his resume. The Orioles & White Sox will split his $3M buyout this winter.

Prediction: Declined

Marcell Ozuna (DH, Braves)

Option: $16M ($1M buyout)
Ozuna is an immovable force in the middle of the Braves’ lineup, hitting for power, average, and consistency across the board. He’s a 7.6 WAR player over the past two seasons, meaning Atlanta will be thrilled to exercise a $16M salary for 2025.

Prediction: Exercised

Marco Gonzales (SP, Pirates)

Option: $15M (no buyout)
Gonzalez was traded twice (Atlanta, Pittsburgh) amidst a 4 year, $30M contract extension signed by Seattle, battling arm injuries each of the last two seasons. With no buyout against a $15M club option, it’s a lock that the Pirates will move on here. 

Prediction: Declined

Eugenio Suarez (3B, Diamondbacks)

Option: $15M ($2M buyout)
The 33-year-old had his most complete season in years in 2024, the final of a 6 year, $66M extension. His $15M option salary for 2025 represents a $4M raise, but that seem more than plausible for an Arizona franchise looking to remain in the thick of things.

Prediction: Exercised

Kyle Gibson (SP, Cardinals)

Option: $12M ($1M buyout)
The numbers aren’t popping off of the screen (and never really have), but Gibson has been a model of consistency for the better part of two decades. The 36-year-old ate up 170 innings across 30 starts in 2024 and can be brought back at the same $12M salary he earned last season ($1M buyout otherwise).

Prediction: Declined

Jorge Polanco (2B, Mariners)

Option: $12M ($750,000 buyout)
The Twins exercised a $10.5M option for 2024, then subsequently traded Polanco to Seattle. He posted his worst season in 4 years from a productivity standpoint, putting his $12M salary for 2025 on notice ($750,000 buyout).

Prediction: Declined

Lance Lynn (SP, Cardinals)

Option: $11M ($1M buyout)
A knee injury limited Lynn to just 23 starts in 2024, but the overall efficiency on the mound was still evident. The 37-year-old holds an $11M salary against a $1M buyout for 2025.

Prediction: Declined

Devin Williams (RP, Brewers)

Option: $10.5M ($250,000 buyout)
The heir apparent to Josh Hader in Milwaukee missed 4 months of 2024 with a back injury, but was every bit the 9th inning star he was advertised to be in the 22 appearances he was able to make. There’s a bit of math to figure out here, as Williams carries a $10.5M club option for 2025, but also one final year of arbitration eligibility. If Milwaukee believes they can lower that $10.5M cost through the arbitration process, a decline would make some business sense here. 

Prediction: Exercised

Brandon Lowe (2B, Rays)

Option: $10.5M ($1M buyout)
Lowe finished out the guaranteed portion of his 6 year, $24M contract this year, leaving a $10.5M club option for 2025, & an $11.5M one for 2026. The Rays generally scoff at salaries north of $10M, but Lowe still seems a part of the core in Tampa.

Prediction: Exercised

Freddy Peralta (SP, Brewers)

Option: $8M (no buyout)
Peralta (32 starts, 3.68 ERA, 2.55 WAR in 2024) projects toward a 4 year, $70M contract in our system, making his $8M club option for 2025 a veritable steal.

Prediction: Exercised

Seranthony Dominguez (SP, Orioles)

Option: $8M ($250,000 buyout)
Dominguez posted career-worsts across the board in 2024, despite splitting time between two very good teams (Phillies, Orioles). A $3.75M raise to $8M for 2025 seems unlikely ($500,000 buyout).

Prediction: Declined

Ryan O’Hearn (1B, Orioles)

Option: $8M (no buyout)
O’Hearn has been a serviceable player in the middle of Baltimore’s lineup the past two seasons, but his $8M option for 2025 represents a $4.5M pay raise. For a team almost certain to be aggressive this offseason, moving off of this option (no buyout) might make some sense.

Prediction: Declined

Travis d’Arnaud (C, Braves)

Option: $8M (no buyout)
The 36-year-old split much of 2024 with the well-paid Sean Murphy (who battled an oblique injury early on), and his $8M 2025 option matches his 2024 compensation. The problem? Murphy’s salary jumps up $6M ($9M to $15M) in 2025, meaning the Braves would be allocated $23M to their catchers for the upcoming season. It’s not out of the question, but it’s also not something most franchises would sign up for.

Prediction: Declined

Phil Maton (RP, Mets)

Option: $7.75M ($250,000 buyout)
An early deadline acquisition from Tampa Bay, Maton has experience in a variety of big games, and the Mets appear poised to be contending once again in 2025. His $7.75M option is on the more expensive side for middle relievers, but with Adam Ottavino certain to come off the books, there’s room for the Mets to make this work. It’s a $250,000 buyout if not.

Prediction: Exercised

Merrill Kelly (SP, Diamondbacks)

Option: $7M ($1M buyout)
Kelly missed 4 months with a shoulder injury, and Arizona will be in search of upgrades to their rotation this winter, but at $7M ($1M buyout), there’s too much value here to see the Diamondbacks moving on.

Prediction: Exercised

MUTUAL OPTIONS

Frankie Montas (SP, Brewers)

Option: $20M ($2M buyout)
The Reds gave Montas a 1 year deal that included a $20M mutual option for 2025. That option now belongs to the Brewers, who acquired the 31-year-old at the deadline for their stretch run. He’s a valued innings-eater, but the numbers across the board don’t necessarily align with a $20M payday.

Prediction: Declined by Team

Joc Pederson (DH, Diamondbacks)

Option: $14M ($3M buyout)
It can be argued that Pederson just completed his most productive MLB season in terms of both power, efficiency, and even 7 stolen bases to boot. The 32-year-old was used primarily as a DH in 2024, limiting his value to a degree, but it stands to reason that the player will want to cash in on his nice season this winter.

Prediction: Declined by Player

David Robertson (RP, Rangers)

Option: $7M ($1.5M buyout)
The 39-year-old made 68 appearances in 2024, posting solid numbers as per usual, with the exception of saves - which he’s no longer being targeted for at this stage of his career. Robertson vested $10M in 2024, so the option would be a pay cut he’s probably not worthy of.

Prediction: Declined by Player

Manuel Margot (OF, Twins)

Option: $12M ($2M buyout)
Margot bounced around from the Rays, to the Dodgers, to the Twins in 2024, then posted career lows for the most part on the field. Tampa is responsible for the buyout here, making this an easy decision for the Twins (who are certain to be cutting payroll).

Prediction: Declined by Team

Drew Smyly (RP, Cubs)

Option: $10M ($2.5M buyout)
Smyly started 45 games for the Cubs across 2022-23, but was moved to the bullpen in 2024 where he saw action in 50 games, finishing 8. There’s a world where the 35-year-old becomes an important piece to a bullpen for the next few seasons, but the Cubs (who placed Smyly on waivers in August) are likely leaning toward a decline here to begin their offseason.

Prediction: Declined by Team

 

RELATED: 2025 MLB Free Agency


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