The NBA’s Vanishing 15th Roster Spot

Keith Smith, Resident NBA ExpertOctober 16, 2024

Share

#nba

© USA TODAY Sports

When the NBA and the NBPA agreed to the 2017 Collective Bargaining Agreement, they introduced two-way contracts to the league. Each team was given two additional roster spots to sign players to deals that would see them split time between the NBA and the G League.

In the 2023 CBA, two-way spots increased to three per team. In theory, in the span of about six years, the NBA added 90 new roster spots league-wide.

Why “in theory”? Because the tradeoff with the additional two-way spots is a vanishing 15th standard roster spot around the league.

Over the last two years, Spotrac talked to multiple front office executives, coaches, players and agents about the changes in NBA roster-building tactics, especially as it pertains to roster spots in the two-way era. To say that opinions are mixed is an understatement.

“Two-way contracts have all but killed off the 15th spot for most of the year, true training camp invites and a lot of 10 Day contracts too,” a long-time agent told Spotrac. “A lot of teams don’t bother anymore, because they can just use their two-way guys. And don’t get me started on what it’s done to the draft.”

Since the advent of two-way contracts, almost every team has filled their available two-way spots. Outside of the Portland Trail Blazers and Phoenix Suns (who didn’t have their own G League affiliate teams for most of the two-way era), every team filled both spots, and all teams have regularly filled all three two-spots over the last two seasons. Even the Trail Blazers and Suns would eventually fill their spots, despite having to work out a flex assignment arrangement before they had their own G League affiliates.

“Look, we’re all cognizant of the cap and the luxury tax, even more so with hard caps and the aprons,” an Eastern Conference GM said. “Two-way contracts can serve as roster fillers who don’t count against the cap or the tax. That’s a win for teams working around the margins.”

To that point, as regular season rosters are finalized, teams are tighter to those margins than ever. New CBA rules introduced a second tax apron, and a whole host of new rules that can hard cap a team at either the first or second tax apron.

As we approach opening night, 12 NBA teams are hard-capped at the first tax apron. An additional four teams are hard-capped at the second apron. And, if that wasn’t enough, four more teams are already over the second apron, and essentially work as if hard-capped at the second apron.

That’s 20 of 30 NBA teams that are dealing with some form of hard cap or apron-related restrictions. Beyond that, another four teams are at or just over the luxury tax, which has long functioned as an artificial line of demarcation for team salaries.

Those are the margins the Eastern Conference GM was talking about working around. As things have become tighter and more complicated to manage, teams look for advantages where they can get them. Two-way contracts and not filling out the standard roster are a form of advantage that teams are going to use.

An Eastern Conference coach said that’s trickled down to him and his staff too.

“When I first started coaching, the medical team determined who could play and who couldn’t. Maybe around the trade deadline, the front office would tell you to hold a guy out because he was in trade talks,” the coach said. “Now, the front office gives us daily updates on our two-way guys and if they can play or not. That’s on top of the medical stuff and guys who are in trade talks. I love having the extra help, but you can’t get overly reliant on your two-way players. You never know when the front office will say they aren’t available because of game counts.”

With opening night approaching, if we remove Exhibit 9/10 contracts from roster counts, there are currently 19 open standard roster spots around the NBA. The league is required to roster an average of 14.5 players per team on standard contracts. That works out to 435 players against 450 possible standard roster spots.

As you can see, the league is currently four short of reaching that minimum. Now, that will be partially handled by a rule introduced in the 2023 CBA that requires teams to be at a minimum of 14 players for no more than 14 consecutive days (a carryover from previous CBAs) and a total of 28 days (new 2023 CBA addition). Teams will dip under 14 players on standard contracts from time to time, but it won’t last for very long.

However, there is no rule stating that a team has to be at 15 players on standard deals. And that’s where teams have gotten increasingly creative.

“We’re a tax team. We’re already going to get hit with a tax bill. So, a natural question we ask is ‘Does it make sense to fill the 15th spot?’”, a Western Conference front office executive told Spotrac. “Some years, it does. Some years, it doesn’t. Sure, we hope if we don’t fill it, our owner will give us some leeway later, but that doesn’t always happen. Billionaires don’t become billionaires by throwing money away.”

An Eastern Conference front office executive put it in even simpler terms: “Is it worth spending a bunch of money for a guy who isn’t going to play? Our coaches and players will obviously say yes. But our owner will probably say no. My job is to find that happy medium. And with two-way guys and 10 Day deals, we can get around filling that spot until late in the season, if we’re going to be a playoff team.”

A prominent veteran player feels different, for obvious and not-so obvious reasons.

“I’ve been bouncing around for a few years now. It’s way harder to make a team at the end of the bench than it used to be. Some organizations want vets in those spots, but they probably have a guy in that role who they’ve had for years, you know?”, he said. “That means I have to earn my spot by bringing something that team doesn’t have. But even then, if they’d rather develop a kid on a two-way, I know I’m not going to make it. That’s why a lot of guys are just going to Europe or China and taking the money and the big role.”

Of the 19 open roster spots, they belong to 16 different teams. Of those 16 teams, nine are already into the luxury tax. Recent history suggests that most of those teams will leave the 15th spot open going into the season. That’s roughly one-third of the league that will carry an open spot for a while.

Now, to be fair, it’s extremely rare for a team to leave their final roster spot open all season long. As the Eastern Conference front office executive said, a playoff team will almost always fill that 15th spot before the end of the season. That’s because two-way players aren’t eligible to play in the playoffs, and no team wants to be caught with a lack of depth in the postseason, should they suffer injuries. That’s another reason why the league doesn’t miss out on the 14.5 players per team roster requirement.

“After the trade deadline and buyout season, it’s an absolute dogfight for roster spots,” an agent told Spotrac. “You’ve got teams that are tanking and willing to tryout guys, but you’ve also got playoff teams looking for guys too. The challenge is, more and more teams would rather just promote a two-way guy than sign a player who isn’t in the league.”

Another agent said, “It used to be that after the trade deadline, I could count on getting my guys 10 Day contracts without any kind of worry. That’s become less, because teams will just use their two-way players for more games. What has changed is you’ll get two-way contract offers sometimes, but that gets tricky because a lot of teams want someone who will sign a two-year two-way deal. Our policy is to avoid locking in for that second year unless it’s the perfect spot or the only offer our guy has.”

Let’s talk about 10 Day contracts. The NBA has had the leaguewide roster minimum for several years now. One way teams work around that is by bringing players in on 10 Day contracts. Initially designed to give teams a replacement player when a player was placed on the Injured List (the NBA did away with the Injured List many years ago, in favor of a by-game Inactive List), 10 Day contracts have also been used differently over the years.

Since the 2017-18 season, when two-way contracts became a thing, the NBA has seen the following amount of 10 Day contracts signed, per Spotrac tracking data:

• 2017-18 – 62
• 2018-19 – 63
• 2019-20 – 32
• 2020-21 – 65
• 2021-22 – 225
• 2022-23 – 40
• 2023-24 – 64

There’s some context needed here. The 2019-20 season was cut short before 10 Day contract season (post-trade deadline and buyout period) could fully pick up. The 2020-21 season was shortened and with tightened COVID protocols, teams didn’t bring in extra players very often. In 2021-22, the rules were adjusted to allow for 10 Day hardship signings when players were out due to positive COVID tests. This caused a massive spike in 10 Day contracts and record number of players in the NBA for a single season.

If we take those three seasons out of the mix, as they aren’t really representative of normal NBA operating conditions, we can see teams generally sign about 60 total 10 Day deals.

However, a bit more context is needed here. In 2022-23, with things back to normal, the number of 10 Day deals had started to dip. Last season, the number moved back up, but that’s inflated by a couple of different teams who signed several 10 Day contracts due to injury hardship allowances. For example, the Memphis Grizzlies had 33 different players appear in at least three games for the team last season. Several of those players were on 10 Day deals.

“Basically, I know I’m waiting for someone to get hurt,” a player who has shuttled between the NBA and the G League in recent seasons told Spotrac. “And that sucks! A lot of these guys are my friends. But for me to get a spot, I’m almost rooting for someone to get injured. I don’t have two-way eligibility, so I’m always going to be fighting for a spot. I’ll take one how I can get it. It is what it is.”

A Western Conference coach added, “It used to be that vets wouldn’t take a 10 Day deal. It was a full contract or nothing. That changed a few years ago. Now, vets will take a 10 Day to show you that they can still play. The goal is to catch on before playoff rosters finalize.”

One West GM told Spotrac, “We save our last spot for flexibility. If we have a need and our two-way games are getting tight, we’ll bring in a guy on a 10 Day. But pre-trade deadline, we don’t want a guy taking up a roster spot we might need in an unbalanced trade. It’s easier to leave it open and to save some money, than it is to tell a guy you are cutting him.”

To put it simply, NBA teams as a collective of 30 have a contractual responsibility to all play a part in filling out their rosters. Eventually, they get there. The league hasn’t seen the number dip under that 14.5 players per team requirement.

What’s changed is that the 15th spot sits open longer than ever before.

“I’d argue that two-way contracts have been a win for players and teams,” an Eastern Conference GM told Spotrac. “Instead of cutting a guy at the end of the preseason, they end up staying a part of the organization. They keep practicing with you, maybe even see some game time. We’ve had our coaches beg us to convert a two-way guy, simply because they get to see him work. That wouldn’t happen if they weren’t still with us.”

An agent countered that with, “Sure, some teams are great with their two-way guys. They make them feel like they are part of the team. They are invested. Other teams couldn’t give a shit about a guy on a two-way deal, especially the coaching staff. And what it’s really killed is the guys who got a partial guarantee to go to camp, knowing they might land with the G League team after. Those are completely dead now.”

What that agent is talking about is a practice that has all but disappeared from use. Teams used to regularly sign players to standard contracts that were partially guaranteed. The idea was to give the player some money, even though that player likely to be waived at the end of the preseason. The player would then likely play for that team’s G League affiliate, while waiting for an in-season callup on a 10 Day deal or sometimes even a straight standard signing.

Now, teams largely use Exhibit 9 (comes with some injury protection) or Exhibit 10 (comes with a bonus if the player later plays for the team’s G League affiliate for a period of 60 days) contracts to fill out their camp rosters. Exhibit 9 “Summer Contracts” have existed for years. Teams like to use them, because they don’t count against the salary cap or luxury tax, unless the player makes the regular season roster. Exhibit 10 deals are a newer thing, and are convertible for those players with two-way eligibility, or come with a bonus for playing in the G League.

With Exhibit 9 and 10 contracts so widely used, teams have stopped giving partial guarantees to players simply to come to training camp.

“It’s bullshit. And the teams know it. I’m not even going to say it’s a bad strategy. Why spend money if you don’t have to? And with all the ridiculous apron rules, no one wants to take on even a dollar on the books if they can avoid it,” one agent said. “But this is why guys aren’t hanging around anymore. They’re going overseas in droves now. Why play the game in the NBA, get cut and then all the money is gone in Europe and Asia?”

Another agent feels differently, “The goal is to play in the NBA, right? I want our guys as close to NBA teams as possible. How many guys are signed from overseas during the NBA season? One or two? You go overseas, and you’re gone for the year. That’s not bad for some players, because there is pretty good money in Europe, Australia, China and Japan now. And they become heroes in China and Japan. But for our guys who want to be in the NBA, we advise them to stay close to the NBA.”

A veteran player who remains a free agent added, “You have to be careful. I turned down some good offers in China and Japan, because I know I’m an NBA player. But I don’t have a contract and bills are due. You know what I mean? I wonder every day if I made a mistake. And then I see this team and that team has an open roster spot and I’m like ‘Saving a few bucks is better than having me on your team?’ It’s fucking tough, man.”

A Western Conference coach said it’s helpful to have guys playing for the G League affiliate when it comes time to fill out open spots.

“I barely have time to watch other NBA games, forget games outside of the NBA. The handful of times I see a player not in the NBA is with our G League team. And if they are in our program, at least they know our system and what we want to do. If our front office says it’s time to fill our last spot, I’d rather go with someone we can bring in with relative ease.”

The reality is that there are currently 540 NBA roster spots available each season. That’s 450 standard spots and 90 two-way spots. NBA expansion is an inevitable and impending reality. That’ll add at least 36 more spots to the league (15 standard spots and three two-way spots for each of the expected two expansion teams).

That’s 576 roster spots. Are there 576 NBA-caliber players in the world?

“Absolutely. We’re probably closer to 1000 guys who could play in the league than we are 500,” one Eastern Conference GM said.

Another Eastern Conference GM disagreed.

“It’s close. But we think of two-way players and G League players as being ‘NBA adjacent’. Are they ready for the NBA? No. Are they worth working with to get there? Definitely. So, in that sense, there are definitely more than enough NBA adjacent players to fill out our current rosters and a couple more teams when we expand.”

Players and agents are ready for expansion, almost as much as fans in cities starving for their own teams.

“Expand tomorrow, if it were up to me! I’ve got guys ready to go. There aren’t 1000 NBA guys out there, but there are probably 700. And more and more are coming every year in the draft too,” an agent said. “I’m more excited about getting more guys drafted in real spots, instead of the bullshit that happens now.”

What this agent is referring to is how the NBA Draft has changed since the advent of two-way contracts. For years, first-round picks were all but guaranteed to land on an NBA roster. Every four or five years, a player would get drafted in the first round and stashed overseas.

In the second round, draft-and-stash picks were far more common. Regularly, there would be 10 or more draft-and-stash guys each year. Now, teams have started to shy away from those opportunities. Somewhere in the range of the 40th to 45th selection in the draft, teams have begun drafting players with the express purpose of signing them to a two-way contract.

“Every agent has at least a dozen stories of a guy that only got drafted because he’d sign a two-way deal or a guy who didn’t get drafted because he wouldn’t,” an agent told Spotrac.

At the 2024 NBA Draft, 28 players were selected in the second round. (The Philadelphia 76ers and Phoenix Suns both forfeited second-round picks due to tampering violations.) Here’s the breakdown of what types of contracts those 28 players signed:

• 14 players signed standard contracts
• 11 players signed two-way contracts
• 2 players are draft-and-stashed in Europe
• 1 player is unsigned after an offseason injury

The highest a player was selected and signed to a two-way contract was 38th. The lowest-drafted player to sign a standard contract was drafted 55th.

“The second round of the draft has turned into the first round of the G League Draft. Half of the guys drafted end up on a two-way deal. The other half sign four-year NBA deals, but they are headed to the G League too. That’s taken a lot of guaranteed money out of guy’s pockets, because teams don’t even give them a partial camp deal,” an agent said.

The four-year NBA deals referred to by this agent are via the Second Round Pick Exception. Another new part of the 2023 CBA was the creation of an exception to sign second-round picks to a three- or four-year contract without having to use cap space or to dip into the Non-Taxpayer Mid-Level Exception. Some agents love the guaranteed money, while others think locking in players for four years has removed earning potential for those players who outplay a contract that pays just north of the league minimum.

Team executives pushed back on that idea.

“Agents will say guys aren’t getting paid, but (Second Round Pick) Exception and two-way players aren’t playing for free. Most of them will get a bigger deal than they’d get overseas. What most agents want to do is double-dip. Get a guarantee, then sign a two-way after. Or they want a two-year deal, but with a guarantee that if their guy doesn’t pop that we’ll bring them back on another deal,” a Western Conference GM said. “If we draft you, we want you. But our opinion is that the player needs time in the G League. If we all do our jobs well, that time on a two-way deal might be for a year or less. And we’re always open to extending the Exception guys too, if they earn it.”

That last part is a key component that is worth examining. As seen with Scotty Pippen Jr.’s recent contract with the Memphis Grizzlies, toiling on a two-way deal can pay off. Pippen played for two seasons on two-way deals. He proved himself and signed a four-year deal with Memphis that will see him earn over $4 million in guaranteed salary.

Pippen is just the latest two-way success story for Memphis only. The Grizzlies have also seen Vince Williams Jr. and GG Jackson II promoted from two-way status with long-term standard deals in the past year.

Memphis and the Miami Heat are two examples of teams who have had great success developing players while on two-way contracts and through the G League. But whether on a two-way deal or on standard deal via the Second Round Pick Exception, it’s up to the player to put in the work.

One player who was promoted from a two-way deal in recent seasons said, “You can tell the guys who go to the G League with a bad attitude and the guys who go there to work. It’s pro basketball a step below the NBA. Go there, show out, and get your NBA deal. I know too many guys who think they are too good to have to prove it. If that was true, you’d be on an NBA team not playing overseas.”

“Look, all of what others said is true. I’m not going to say players and teams haven’t both benefitted from two-way contracts. There are a lot of examples of that,” an agent said. “But you know what I have a lot more examples of? Guys not getting deals because teams don’t want to fill that 15th spot. I’ve had teams openly tell me ‘We have 50 games for each of our two-way guys.’ as the reason they won’t fill out their roster. Overall, that’s a loss for everyone.”

So…what’s the fix? That’s a complicated, and admittedly selfish answer for all parties involved.

“Personally, I don’t have an issue with it. I did my time on a two-way and I got chances because our team left roster spots open. I wouldn’t have gotten minutes if another guy was already on the team,” the promoted player told Spotrac.

A Western Conference front office executive gets that line of thinking.

“Players have to work no matter what the situation is. It’s hard to make our league. Really, really hard. Sometimes having one less guy to compete against can work for a player.”

Most agents disagree. One said, “Owners are cheap. They’ll talk flexibility and all that shit, but it’s really that they don’t want to spend extra money. And that’s been a loss for players, because they miss out. Not just on the immediate money, but years of service and all the other stuff that adds up over time.”

NBA teams have transitioned how they build rosters over the years. Rosters have grown in size since the league was formed. There was a time when the league’s original coaches believed you needed 10 players to run a practice and that was enough.

Now, there are up 540 players in the NBA at a given time. That may seem like a big number, but it’s still the smallest of all of the major sports leagues by a pretty wide margin. With limited roster spots and increasingly complex and burdensome luxury tax and apron restrictions, NBA teams are always going to be cautious and methodical about filling out their rosters.

One Eastern Conference GM put it in the simplest terms of all.

“If filling the 15th spot matters this much, we’d fill it. If you are that worried about your 15th man, I’d say you have a whole lot more you should be worried about.”