MLB Offseason Primer: NL Central

Michael Ginnitti
Michael Ginnitti, Managing Editor & NFL/MLB ExpertOctober 28, 2024
© USA TODAY Sports

As MLB flips into offseason mode, Spotrac offers a snapshot look at projected Opening Day 40-Man Tax Payrolls, arbitration salary totals, notable upcoming option decisions, & pending free agents for each team.

OFFSEASON PRIMERS
AL EAST | AL CENTRAL | AL WEST | NL EAST | NL CENTRAL | NL WEST

Chicago Cubs

Projected 40-Man CBT: $190.3M (8th)
Guaranteed Contracts: 6 ($104.5M)
Arbitration-Eligible: 15 ($35.7M)
The Cubs finished 2nd in the NL Central, led by a starting rotation (Imanaga, Taillon, Assad, Steele) that remained effective for most of 2024. Chicago’s letdown came at the plate, where Cody Bellinger, Dansby Swanson, & Nico Hoerner all had setback seasons. Bellinger has a chance to opt-out of his 2 year, $52.5M remaining, but that’s looking less and less likely now. Look for Chicago to add a shot-in-the-arm bat, then focus heavily on bullpen depth this winter.

Notable Options
Cody Bellinger (CF, 2 yrs, $52.5M Opt-Out), Drew Smyly (P, $10M Mutual)

Notable Free Agents
Jorge López (RP), Kyle Hendricks (SP)

Cincinnati Reds

Projected 40-Man CBT: $92.5M (27th)
Guaranteed Contracts: 3 ($28.2M)
Arbitration-Eligible: 11 ($28.9M)
The Reds have already made significant changes to their front office and coaching staff, a likely prerequisite for what should be an active winter. The focus almost certainly will key in on a starting rotation that hasn’t developed enough to keep up with a flourishing set of young bats. The Reds could use a Royals-like winter, bringing in more mid-range-priced arms than seemingly needed, offering both regular season depth, and a trade chip or two down the stretch. Seeing a young position player or two traded this winter wouldn’t be much of a surprise either.

Notable Options
Nick Martinez (SP, $12M Player), Emilio Pagan (RP, $8M Player), Jake Junis (RP, $8M Mutual)

Notable Free Agents
Buck Farmer (RP), Amed Rosario (UTIL), Justin Wilson (RP)

Milwaukee Brewers

Projected 40-Man CBT: $132.4M (19th)
Guaranteed Contracts: 5 ($47M)
Arbitration-Eligible: 10 ($28.6M)
The Brewers ran away with the NL Central division this year, but were bounced by the Mets in the Wild Card round. Milwaukee had a little bit of everything this season: A veteran resurgence from Christian Yelich, an out-of-nowhere burst from William Contreras, & a youth breakout from Jackson Chourio. Milwaukee has bullpen depth, at least 4 rotation arms, and about 85% of their position players in place. But shortstop Willy Adames will be hitting the open market coming off of a career year. The Brewers generally don’t get involved with “max” contracts, so this will be replacement priority number one most likely.

Notable Options
Frankie Montas (SP, $20M Mutual), Rhys Hoskins (1B, $18M Player), Freddy Peralta (SP, $8M Club), Colin Rea (SP, $5.5M Club)

Notable Free Agents
Willy Adames (SS), Joe Ross (RP)

Pittsburgh Pirates

Projected 40-Man CBT: $99.1M (26th)
Guaranteed Contracts: 4 ($43.7M)
Arbitration-Eligible: 9 ($22.8M)
The Pirates finished last in the NL Central, & ten games under .500, but there has to be a sense of excitement heading toward the offseason knowing that the combination of Paul Skenes, Jared Jones, & to a lesser extent Mitch Keller gives them a bonafide, legitimate starting rotation. There’s more help coming from the farm system at this regard, putting the onus on this annually thrifty front office to build up the bullpen and batting line in the coming months. Recent extensions for Keller, Bryan Reynolds, & Ke'Bryan Hayes are a sign that things could be ramping up, but the foot needs to remain on the gas pedal this winter.

Notable Options
Marco Gonzales (SP, $15M Club)

Notable Free Agents
Andrew McCutchen (DH), Yasmani Grandal (C), Aroldis Chapman (RP), Jalen Beeks (RP)

St. Louis Cardinals

Projected 40-Man CBT: $157.1M (16th)
Guaranteed Contracts: 6 ($105.1M)
Arbitration-Eligible: 6 ($20.7M)
The Cardinals tied the Cubs for 2nd in the NL Central, despite being relatively average in most metrics. Masyn Winn & Ryan Helsley had major arrow-up campaigns, but much of the group (Arenado, Gorman, Nootbar, etc..) had stepback seasons. Replacing Paul Goldschmidt at 1B, adding at least 2 reliable starters, and finding the right player to bridge the gap to Helsley at the end of games seem priorities.

Notable Options
Kyle Gibson (SP, $12M Club), Lance Lynn (SP, $11M Club), Keynan Middleton (RP, $6M Club)

Notable Free Agents
Paul Goldschmidt (1B), Andrew Kittredge (RP), Matt Carpenter (DH)


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