Initial 2025 Cap Space and Spending Power Projections

Keith Smith
Keith Smith, Resident NBA ExpertNovember 04, 2024
Share
#nba #cap space
© USA TODAY Sports

The 2024 NBA offseason and early-season transaction period is behind us. Minus a handful of signings here and there, NBA transactions will go dormant until trade season opens up in mid-to-late-December. With extensions largely completed (for now!) and 2025-26 rookie scale team option decisions made, it’s time to look forward!

The 2025 NBA offseason looks like a weird one. The new media rights money will start hitting, but the NBA and NBPA agreed to cap the cap growth at no more than 10% from one year to the next. That means the cap is projected to go from $140.6 million this season to just over $154.6 million for next season. That $14 million jump is a big one, but it’s not going to result in a whole of cap space around the NBA.

The reason for that is teams have gotten really aggressive in recent years with extensions. More and more players are forgoing free agency and taking the certainty of extensions. This past year, the only big-name All-Star to change teams via direct free agency was Paul George. A few others moved via sign-and-trades and standard trades, but free agency itself wasn’t how stars moved.

That’s likely to continue in the summer of 2025. As you’ll see, there’s not a lot of cap space projected to be out there this summer. Also, the free agent class projects to be devoid of stars. Most of the All-Star level guys are good bets to re-sign with their current teams, or to extend before free agency opens.

However, that doesn’t mean having spending power is completely useless. With the Apron Era fully upon us, NBA teams are embracing exceptions in different ways. This summer, there will be some value signings available, simply because the means to overpay those players as free agents aren’t available. That should make for an active summer of role player movement, in addition to the usual handful of big trades.

With all that said, here’s how things look today for 2025 spending power around the NBA. This can, and will, change throughout the season. Teams will make decisions about the future up through the trade deadline. That will create more spending power for some, while using it up for others.

(Note: These projections are made using the noted cap and tax figures above, draft pick cap holds based on projected standings and a projection on all option and guarantee decisions by players and teams. No extensions or trades have been projected. We will call out where those types of situations could impact a team projection.)

Cap Space Teams – 2 Teams

  1. Brooklyn Nets: $40.7 million

  2. Washington Wizards: $27.5 million

Two teams project to have cap space in the summer of 2025. That’s it. (For reference: I’ve been doing cap space projections for well over a decade and have never had a year-out projection with just two teams.) That’s how much guaranteed money is already on the books for next season around the NBA.

Brooklyn gets to north of $40 million fairly easily. They let all of their free agents walk, at least initially, minus restricted free agents Cam Thomas and Day’Ron Sharpe. If Dorian Finney-Smith opts out – a true 50-50 decision – the Nets will have nearly $55 million in cap space. And, of course, this roster is a work-in-progress. So, don’t be surprised if Brooklyn sheds more money, or possibly takes some more on for future assets. Sean Marks is just getting started with his second rebuild.

Washington is still in the “deconstruction phase” with their roster, per their own front office. That means this projection is pretty tenuous. The Wizards could move off some money, with a whole bunch of tradable veterans. But that might come via taking on some onerous money, while adding more draft capital and young talent. For now, the flexibility is what really matters for the Wizards.

Swing Cap Space and Non-Taxpayer Mid-Level Exception Teams – 2 Teams

  1. Charlotte Hornets

  2. Utah Jazz

It’s unlikely either of these teams will go the cap space route. Charlotte has players they’d like to re-sign and keep on their roster (Tre Mann, Cody Martin, Nick Richards), which will likely keep them from having cap space.

In order for the Jazz to get to having some cap space, they’d have to move John Collins or he’d have to opt out. Given the landscape this summer, Collins won’t recoup the $25.6 million he’ll make on his option. So, leave him on the Utah books for now. In addition, the Jazz project to have three first-round picks, including the potential first overall selection. That’s going to add decent chunk of change to the cap sheet too.

Non-Taxpayer Mid-Level Exception Teams – 10 Teams

  1. Atlanta Hawks

  2. Chicago Bulls

  3. Detroit Pistons

  4. Houston Rockets

  5. LA Clippers

  6. Memphis Grizzlies

  7. Oklahoma City Thunder

  8. Portland Trail Blazers

  9. San Antonio Spurs

  10. Toronto Raptors

As per usual, this group features a mix of title contenders, playoff contenders and rebuilding teams.

For the rebuilding teams, the Bulls are still digging out from underneath some signings and extensions they made when they were chasing contention. The cap sheet is cleaning up, but not quite there yet. And a new deal for Josh Giddey is looming too.

The Pistons took on a good chunk of money this past offseason in some of their deals. They’ve got pretty good flexibility overall, but this summer doesn’t project to be one of big spending in Detroit.

Portland is still dealing with the fallout from the Damian Lillard and Jrue Holiday trades. They took on more money than was desirable in those deals, but it’s not the end of the world. This situation is also pretty volatile, as the Blazers have a lot of veterans who could be on the move via trades. Keep an eye on Portland.

Some might be surprised to see the Spurs not in the cap space group. San Antonio projects to have three first-round picks in the upcoming draft. All of them currently project to land between the fifth and fifteenth pick. That, combined with previous deals, eats up the Spurs cap space.

Toronto used up any chance of having cap space when they extended Scottie Barnes, re-signed Immanuel Quickley and extended Kelly Olynyk. No complaints though, as those were all solid signings. The good news is that the Raptors have some money coming off the books, and that should leave room to use the full Non-Taxpayer MLE.

The Hawks, Rockets, Clippers and Grizzlies are all in roughly the same spots. All are would-be playoff teams. The first three are still retooling their rosters, but should have enough room to use the Non-Taxpayer MLE. The Grizzlies are mostly there with their roster, but have so few spots to fill, that they should be fine using the full Non-Taxpayer MLE.

Then we have the Thunder. The big spending of last summer won’t be repeated, but that doesn’t mean Oklahoma City doesn’t have flexibility. One of the NBA’s best teams is young, talented and the front office has a pretty clean cap sheet and still has a whole bunch of draft picks to trade. Good luck to the other 29 teams!

Swing Non-Taxpayer Mid-Level Exception Teams and Taxpayer Mid-Level Exception Teams – 5 teams

  1. Indiana Pacers

  2. Los Angeles Lakers

  3. New Orleans Pelicans

  4. Orlando Magic

  5. Philadelphia 76ers

All playoff contenders in this group, with a couple hopeful of being more than that.

The Pacers have been pretty conservative with spending over the years. Recently, Indiana has been aggressive about extending and re-signing their own players. If that continues with Myles Turner in free agency this summer, the Pacers will be closer to having the Taxpayer MLE than the Non-Taxpayer MLE.

The Lakers created some flexibility by declining the third-year rookie scale option for Jalen Hood-Schifino. With LeBron James newfound willingness to help Los Angeles create some spending power, don’t be surprised if they maneuver to having the Non-Taxpayer MLE. The one caveat: If the Lakers make a big in-season trade this year, that could wipe out any future flexibility.

New Orleans has never paid the tax in franchise history. They probably won’t start that this year, as they are close enough to dodging the tax line to do so. That said, working right around the margins will continue for at least another year. Then things should free up a bit in 2026. Keep an eye on what happens with Brandon Ingram here. That will decide a lot of where the Pelicans are headed cap-/tax-wise.

The Magic locked into a whole bunch of long-term money this past offseason. That’s going to have them dancing around the luxury tax line and possibly even living in between the tax aprons. Having some team options on the books could give them the flexibility to drop salary and open up the Non-Taxpayer MLE, but they seem pretty content with the roster right now.

The Sixers pulled off the rare feat of using cap space and ending up as a tax team this season. That’s how much having Tyrese Maxey on a low cap hold meant to Philadelphia. Next year, they could create some additional wiggle room by moving off a couple of non-guaranteed deals. But the more likely path is that Daryl Morey will swing a trade or two this season to take on some money into next year. That’ll put the 76ers in Taxpayer MLE range or maybe even into second apron range.

Taxpayer Mid-Level Exception Teams – 2 teams

  1. Golden State Warriors

  2. Sacramento Kings

The Warriors and Kings are similar spots. Both did a lot of maneuvering this past offseason and that’s got them with a good amount of money on the books, with more likely getting added soon.

Golden State has some key free agents in Jonathan Kuminga, De’Anthony Melton, Kevon Looney and Gary Payton II. If they re-sign those guys, especially Kuminga, they’ll be back over the tax and nearing the second apron.

The Kings issue is more about the number of roster spots that they have to fill. Half of the Sacramento roster is going to hit free agency this summer. That likely includes Keon Ellis, who the Kings would be smart to decline their team option for, so that they can control the process with Ellis as a restricted free agent. With six players making between $11 million and $44 million, that doesn’t leave a ton of extra spending power.

Swing Taxpayer Mid-Level Exception Teams and Second Apron Teams – 6 teams

  1. Cleveland Cavaliers

  2. Dallas Mavericks

  3. Denver Nuggets

  4. Miami Heat

  5. Milwaukee Bucks

  6. Minnesota Timberwolves

The good news? All of these teams are playoff teams. The bad news? They are all really, really expensive playoff teams.

For the Cavs, this is mostly about what happens with Caris LeVert. If he’s re-signed to a fair-value deal, Cleveland will be a second apron team. If he’s not, they might have just enough room to squeeze in a signing with the Taxpayer MLE.

Dallas is dependent on what happens with Kyrie Irving. If he opts out and pushes for a max or near-max deal, the Mavs will be near the second apron. If Irving opts in, or re-signs for a similar salary with additional years tacked on, Dallas might be able to get to the Non-Taxpayer MLE.

Denver is in the same spot they’ve been in before. They can use the Non-Taxpayer MLE to fill one of their couple of open roster spots. But let’s not give out any second-year player options this time, ok?

Miami is all about Jimmy Butler. If he’s back, the Heat are dancing around the first and second aprons. If Butler moves on, then Miami could have some unexpected flexibility. This is a pretty massive summer for the Heat, both in the short- and long-term.

As for Milwaukee and Minnesota, they may be able to dip under the second apron. If one of Khris Middleton or Brook Lopez is gone, the Bucks will have a bunch of flexibility. If they’re both back, they’ll be over the second apron. This is very much a year-to-year thing in Milwaukee right now.

The Wolves are in an interesting spot. Rudy Gobert declining his option and extending freed up about $10 million in flexibility. We project Julius Randle to opt in (he won’t have big offers this summer with a lack of cap space around the league), but Minnesota still has to re-sign Naz Reid and Nickeil Alexander-Walker. If they do that, they’ll be up over the second apron again.

Second Apron Teams (no signing exceptions) – 3 Teams

  1. Boston Celtics

  2. New York Knicks

  3. Phoenix Suns

This group got halved from last year’s projections. The combination of the cap going up and some money coming off the books took four to five teams to within range of dodging the second apron.

Boston is all but guaranteed to be a second apron team. They’ll probably even challenge Phoenix for the largest payroll in the league. The big questions: Is Al Horford back? And how much will he cost the Celtics in salary plus tax penalties, if he is?

Phoenix is in the same spot they’ve been in for a bit now. Super expensive without much recourse to not be super expensive. But this past summer’s moves made more sense than the first time the Suns were in this spot. That signals Phoenix may be figuring out how to live as a second apron team.

That leaves the Knicks, who are in a really interesting spot. They’ve got nearly $195 million committed for just nine players. That leaves six roster spots to fill, which means they’ll push over the second apron. The real intrigue comes with how far they’ll push over. Will they re-sign Precious Achiuwa to bank some tradable salary, if for no other reason? Beyond that, trades (made within the host of second-apron restrictions) and signing a host of players to minimum deals is what we can expect in New York this summer.


#nba #cap space
Top