Predicting a Mets Free Agency Sans Juan Soto

Michael Ginnitti
Michael Ginnitti, Managing Editor & NFL/MLB ExpertNovember 04, 2024
© USA TODAY Sports

The 2024 Mets were a bit of a revelation, turning a dreadful start into an NLCS appearance when it was all said and done. But the offseason is here and so too are a laundry list of decisions to make and holes to fill across the roster.

Spotrac dives into a positional breakdown of where the 2025 Mets stand currently, plus a look at an 8 player, $550M free agent plan that could act as a” Plan B” to one major Juan Soto contract this winter.

RELATED: 2025 MLB Free Agents

Position Players

In terms of everyday starters, only Pete Alonso is set to walk into free agency - though Jose Iglesias, J.D. Martinez, & Harrison Bader, all also headed to the open market, held large roles in 2024.

Alonso’s situation is completely fluid. It’s been reported that the Mets made a 7 year, $158M to their first baseman prior to the start of the 2024, and those same reports follow up that Alonso was in the market for an 8th year at the time. The nearly 30-year-old now hits the open market for the first time with a 6 year, $175M valuation in our system, though it’s largely believed that a multi-team bidding war can up this deal near $200M.

Elsewhere, outside of large contracts for SS Francisco Lindor (7 years, $224M remaining), & OF Brandon Nimmo (6 years, $121.5M remaining), the Mets starting lineup projects to be relatively inexpensive at the moment.

C: Francisco Alvarez (pre-arbitration)
1B: N/A
2B: Luisangel Acuna (pre-arbitration)
SS: Francisco Lindor: $32M
3B: Mark Vientos (pre-arbitration)
LF: Brandon Nimmo ($20.5M)
CF: Tyrone Taylor (estimated $3M)
RF: Starling Marte ($20.75M)
DH: Jeff McNeil ($15.75M)

The Starting Rotation

Decimated (on paper).

 

The Mets 2024 Opening Day Rotation
1. Kodai Senga

2. Jose Quintana

3. Luis Severino

4. Sean Manaea

5. Adrian Houser

Of this group, Senga missed nearly the entire season due to multiple injuries, but is under contract through 2027 (assuming he doesn’t opt-out after 2025). Houser was released in August after poor production & a bullpen stint. And the group of Quintana, Severino, & Manaea are all headed to free agency this week.

The Mets do have David Peterson under team control through 2026, & Tylor Megill under team control through 2027, but it’s safe to assume that NY will need to replace or re-sign at least two of these rotation spots for the upcoming season.

The Bullpen

Brooks Raley, Adam Ottavino, Phil Maton, & Ryne Stanek are all headed to free agency but the young group of Dedniel Nunez, Jose Butto, & Reed Garrett should all be 6th, 7th, & 8th inning options for 2025. There are 3-4 depth spots to add here, and David Stearns would be smart to handcuff Edwin Diaz with a viable 9th inning colleague (possibly even old friend Devin Williams), but it’s unlikely NY allocates a ton of offseason resources to this portion of their roster.

The Looming Offseason

It should come as no surprise that the Mets, and owner Steve Cohen, have been directly tied to Juan Soto’s free agency already. Cohen has already shown once that money is no object when it comes to building this team, and Soto represents one of the most attractive building blocks in MLB Free Agency history. In a recent piece, Spotrac predicted that the bidding war for Soto could ramp things up to a contract that reaches 12 years, $660M.

Let’s assume that - despite their best efforts - the Mets don’t win the war for Soto, and instead project another way they can spend $500M+ this winter.

Sign SP Corbin Burnes: 7 years, $215M

Burnes holds a 6 year, $180M valuation in our system for his first trip to free agency, so any type of multi-team bidding war should keep him at the $30M+ per year mark rather easily. If the Yankees opt to keep Gerrit Cole off of the open market, Burnes (and to some degree Blake Snell) will be the big fish in the sea.

Re-Sign 1B Pete Alonso: 6 years, $174M

The highest average paid first baseman on a multi-year contract is Freddie Freeman at $27M per year. At $29M per year, Alonso easily eclipses that, while locking in more than the Mets reportedly offered him last spring (7 years, $158M).

Re-Sign SP Sean Manaea: 4 years, $75M

Manaea carries a $16.1M valuation in our system as he heads back to the open market, but he rose to become NYM’s ace for much of 2024. A newly crafted delivery & arm angle has him pitching with more confidence and efficiency. There will be a team or two looking to make this one of their big splashes this winter, but the Mets should have no trouble matching any offer.

Sign OF Tyler O’Neill: 3 years, $50M

Despite a bit of a banged up season O’Neill put together one of his better production years to date in Boston, collecting 18 doubles, 31 homers, and an .847 OPS. The Mets will watch Harrison Bader & Jesse Winker hit the open market, while 36-year-old Starling Marte enters a contract year and most likely can’t be counted on for 150+ games.

Sign RP David Robertson: 1 year, $12.5M

The 39-year-old spent half a season with the Mets back in 2023, and he could prove to be a perfect handcuff option for the sometimes maligned Edwin Diaz. He’s still producing at a high level despite his age, so this won’t be a “value” signing by any regards.

Sign RP Blake Treinen: 1 year, $12M + a $14M club option

If you can’t beat em’, steal from em’. Treinen returned to strong form in his 50 appearances for the Dodgers after two straight seasons lost to injury. The 36-year-old still has swing and miss stuff, and will bring a wealth of big-game pedigree to this Mets bullpen.

Sign SP Matthew Boyd: 1 year, $10M + a $12.5M club option

Boyd spent the last half of 2024 in Cleveland working his way back from 2023 Tommy John Surgery. He had all the signs of a player ready to resurrect his career, which means the Guardians will be looking to keep him at a relatively small-market price to gain value. The Mets can simply outbid here with hope that Boyd can fill the Quintana/Severino role for much of 2025.

Re-Sign Jose Iglesias: 1 year, $1.5M

This one seems like a no-brainer, all things considered. Iglesias, who can play plus defense all over the infield, proved to be a timely hitter, and a much-needed midseason spark (on and off the field) for a flailing organization. The projection here brings the 34-year-old back on the same salary as 2024, but a nice incentive package would certainly help sweeten the pot.

Guaranteed Total: $550M

 

RELATED: 2025 New York Mets Tax Payroll


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