Potential NFL Market Resetters

Michael Ginnitti
Michael Ginnitti, Managing Editor & NFL/MLB ExpertNovember 12, 2024
© USA TODAY Sports

As we turn the page into the second half of the 2024 regular season, the time to start collecting potential offseason contract decisions begins now. Spotrac starts that process with a look at players who are trending toward signing a contract that would reset their respective position’s market.

RELATED: Spotrac’s Market Values

QUARTERBACK: Brock Purdy

Market Highs:
APY: $60M
Guarantee: $231M
APY of Cap: 24.47%

I know, I can’t believe I’m saying it either, but enough is enough. The 2022 Mr. Irrelevant has become one of the most efficient passers in football, enters Week 11 as the #8 ranked QB in football according to PFF, and now carries a valuation near $60M in our system.

He’s under contract through 2025 at $1.1M, but it’s tough to imagine him (or agent Kyle Strongin) letting things go any further without a substantial pay raise. There’s a very clear path to that raise now coming in at or above Dak Prescott’s 4 year, $240M mark.

Prediction: 4 years, $250M

RUNNING BACK: None

Market Highs:
APY: $19M
Guarantee: $26.5M
APY of Cap: 7.44%

James Conner, Najee Harris, Aaron Jones, & JK Dobbins lead the pending free agent class, while Kyren Williams, Brian Robinson, & Kenneth Walker can be considered early extension candidates.

WIDE RECEIVER: Ja’Marr Chase

Market Highs:
APY: $35M
Guarantee: $110M
APY of Cap:13.70%

Despite an offseason “hold-in” as he attempted to lock in an extension, Chase is on pace to obliterate his career highs (100 receptions, 1,455 yards, 13 TDs). With Tee Higgins’ likely moving on in free agency next March, Cincinnati will have no excuse but to give their former #5 overall pick an exceptional pay raise. Not to mention, the Bengals will be looking to significantly lower his current $21.8M cap hit for 2025, stemming from a fully guaranteed 5th-year option.

Chase currently holds an even $32M valuation in our system, projecting toward a 4 year, $128M extension. Justin Jefferson’s $35M per year is the current top mark among Wide Receivers.

Prediction: 4 years, $145M

TIGHT END: George Kittle

Market Highs:
APY: $17.125M
Guarantee: $40.1M
APY of Cap: 7.81%

Kittle will be entering a contract year in 2025, set to earn a non-guaranteed $15M. The 31-year-old has been exceptionally reliable over the past 4 seasons, and currently ranks as the #1 Tight End in football according to PFF.

The only real precedent we have for a TE maxing out at this age is Travis Kelce’s renegotiation in Kansas City (2 years, $34.5M) this past summer. Kittle’s valuation puts him right there (2 years, $32.5M). 

Prediction: 2 years, $36M

TACKLE: Rashawn Slater

Market Highs:
APY: $28.12M
Guarantee: $88.2M
APY of Cap: 11.1%

The #13 overall pick from 2021 has lived up to the hype, and now combines with newly drafted Joe Alt as maybe the best bookend pairing in all of football. With QB Justin Herbert now fully locked in for the foreseeable future, aligning Slater with him should be a priority this coming winter.

Slater is under contract through 2025 on a fully guaranteed $19M salary, holding a $22.3M valuation in our system. Mathematically speaking, he’s a long way off of Tristan Wirf’s league-high $28.1M APY, but the rising salary cap and further need for consistency across an OL could force the Chargers to play ball near the top of this market. Indy’s Bernhard Raimann & Seattle’s Charles Cross could also be in consideration here.

Prediction: 5 years, $130M

GUARD: Trey Smith

Market Highs:
APY: $21M
Guarantee: $63M
APY of Cap: 9.61%

The last thing the Chiefs need is another important piece of their puzzle in need of a top of the market contract - but here we are. The former 6th round pick out of Tennessee has improved mightily each year, culminating with career bests in 2024 thus far.

Mathematically speaking he’s a $19M player in our system, so a push to Landon Dickerson’s $21M per year mark isn’t far off.

Prediction: 4 years, $88M

CENTER: Tyler Linderbaum

Market Highs:
APY: $18M
Guarantee: $50.3M
APY of Cap: 7.4%

The Ravens 1st Round Pick back in 2022 has progressively improved each of his first three seasons, and can now be classified as one of the best (and most reliable) centers in all of football. Linerbaum will become extension-eligible for the first time after 2024, and the Ravens will have the ability to exercise a 5th-year option for the 2026 season, so time isn’t of the essence here. But it seems to be only a matter of time before big dollars come his way.

Prediction: No Extension until 2026

INTERIOR DEFENDER: None

Market Highs:
APY: $31.75M
Guarantee: $95M
APY of Cap: 12.4%

B.J. Hill, Chauncey Golston, & Levi Onwuzurike headline the pending free agent class, while Travis Jones, D.J. Reader, & David Onyemata represent early potential extension candidates.

EDGE DEFENDER: T.J. Watt / Micah Parsons

Market Highs:
APY: $34M APY
Guarantee: $122.5M
APY of Cap:15.34%

Watt will be entering a contract year in 2025, set to earn $21.05M (the same compensation he’s earning in 2024). The newly 30-year-old is still performing at a Defensive Player of the Year level, which should prompt the Steelers into lowering his current $30.4M cap hit with an extension this coming offseason. Watt holds a $32M valuation in our system, so it shouldn’t take much to get past Nick Bosa’s mark.

Parsons will be entering his 5th-year option year in 2025, set to earn a fully guaranteed $21.3M. While an ankle injury has greatly limited his 2024 season thus far, it’s extremely hard to imagine that Parsons shows up to any offseason workouts without a new deal. Has he done enough to warrant a $35M+ per year extension? The math ($29M) says no, but logic says otherwise.

Predictions: Watt: 3 years, $120M; Parsons: 4 years, $150M

OFF-BALL LINEBACKER: None

Market Highs:
APY: $20M APY
Guarantee: $60M
APY of Cap:10.4%

A position that continues to be devalued more and more every offseason appears to have one of its weakest classes ahead of it in terms of both pending free agents, and potential extension candidates. We’ll be seeking late additions to bring to this list before March, but for now, expect a lot of near minimum contract value signings.

CORNERBACK: TBD

Market Highs:
APY: $24.1M
Guarantee: $77.5M
APY of Cap:10.7%

After Patrick Surtain II ($24M APY) & Jalen Ramsey ($24.1M APY) took the cornerback market to a much needed new level, we entered the 2024 season eyeing three more players, Trent McDuffie, Ahmad Gardner, Derek Stingley Jr., as “next in line”. All three however are having slight step back years based on their own set expectations, and could opt to play out another year before locking anything in. With that said, any of those three players could very easily become the first $25M CB in football.

A few more names to watch here: Buffalo’s Christian Benford, San Francisco’s Deommodore Lenoir.

SAFETY: Kerby Joseph

Market Highs:
APY: $21M APY
Guarantee: $51.5M
APY of Cap: 9.2%

Joseph and teammate Brian Branch may not just be the best 1-2 punch in all of football, they may be the best two safeties in all of football period. The former 3rd rounder will be entering a contract year in 2025, set to earn $1.4M through the 2025 season.

Detroit fed a lot of mouths in the 2024 offseason, but Joseph just turned 23 years old and seems a lock to be a factor for this defense over the next 3-4 seasons at least. He projects toward a 4 year, $94M extension in our system, putting him in great shape to top this market when it’s all said and done.

Prediction: 4 years, $85M


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