A Midseason QB Contract Review

Michael Ginnitti
Michael Ginnitti, Managing Editor & NFL/MLB ExpertNovember 15, 2024
© USA TODAY Sports

With the midway point of the 2024 NFL season now in the rearview mirror, it’s a good time to reassess where each starting quarterback stands in terms of their stability on the field, but also contractually speaking going forward.

Kyler Murray (ARZ)

4 years, $157.8M Remaining

3 years, $111.5M Practical

The Cardinals have turned a corner and Murray is back to producing at his peak. This was one of the contracts on a watch list 6 months ago. That’s no longer the case. Furthermore, Arizona hasn’t had to touch this deal from a cap perspective through three seasons, and may not need to again in 2025 ($45.6M cap against a potential $270M league threshold).

Kirk Cousins (ATL)

3 years, $117.5M Remaining

1 year, $50M Practical

The numbers are down both in terms of efficiency and total production, but there’s still time for Cousins and his new offense to find a little more rhythm. It’s still very likely that Atlanta sticks with Cousins through the 2025 season before turning the keys over to Michael Penix Jr., but it’s not entirely impossible that that discussion begins this coming offseason.

Lamar Jackson (BLT)

3 years, $147.5M Remaining

2 years, $95.5M Practical

The two-time MVP remains an MVP candidate - if not favorite, heading toward December. All $43.5M of Jackson’s 2025 compensation is fully guaranteed already, and $29M of his 2026 salary locks in this coming March. Baltimore likely keeps his $43.65M cap hit in place next season, as things jump quickly thereafter ($74.65M).

Josh Allen (BUF)

4 years, $129.5M Remaining

1 year, $14.5M Practical

Buffalo quietly adjusted Allen’s deal this past spring, pulling $30M of cash forward (and building in a nice incentive package) for 2024 to sweeten his pot. The move however leaves him with just $14.5M to be earned in 2025, the last year of his deal with early vesting guarantees. Teams generally don’t rip up contracts with four years remaining on them, but it shouldn’t come as a surprise if the Bills and Allen are at the negotiating table in the coming months, discussing an APY that’s double his current $32.5M remaining. 

Bryce Young (CAR)

2 years, $10.1M + Option Remaining

2 years, $10.1M Practical

Not exactly how they drew it up on draft night, but Young has fared better since returning from a mini-benching early on in 2024. The Panthers have an awful lot to improve upon this coming offseason, but starting over at the QB position probably isn’t a priority - yet.

Caleb Williams (CHI)

3 years, $13.1M + Option Remaining

3 years, $13.1M Practical

Williams and the Bears offense haven’t exactly meshed together out of the gate, and the 22-year-old is now already on to his 2nd offensive coordinator in the league. Chicago has time and resources to turn this around quickly if it’s developed and managed properly. Ben Johnson may soon have the largest contract offer in NFL coaching history.

Joe Burrow (CIN)

5 years, $198.8M Remaining

3 years, $107.8M Practical

A healthy Burrow has rounded right back into top form this season, posting near-career-highs as we head toward December. The 27-year-old earned the biggest payday on his entire contract this season ($65.7M), and is early vested through the 2027 season.

Deshaun Watson (CLE)

2 years, $92M Remaining

2 years, $92M Practical

Unfortunately, we’re running out of new ways to discuss this one. An achilles injury torpedoed what was already a miserable 2024 campaign, adding further pressure on the Browns’ organization to seriously consider making a rash decision on this albatross of a contract. We’re an offseason removed from Denver taking on $85M of dead cap ($38M cash) to move off of Russell Wilson. For the Browns to move on from Watson, we’re talking about $172.7M of dead cap ($92M cash). Alternatively, Watson’s cap hit in 2025 is currently $72.935M, so another cap-conversion just to keep the rest of the roster intact is likely, making for more pain in 2026-2027.

Dak Prescott (DAL)

4 years, $187.75M Remaining

3 years, $132.75M Practical

Off to a rocky start (including season-ending hamstring surgery), Dak’s contract is fully secured through 2025 right now, and practically guaranteed through 30% of 2028 compensation. The Cowboys have a big offseason coming up to reset their window.

Bo Nix (DEN)

3 years, $7.4M + Option Remaining

3 years, $7.4M Practical

The Broncos went all-in on turning over a new leaf at the QB position, and early marks say it’s panned out. Russell Wilson’s $32M dead cap hit in 2025 stings, but it’s offset nicely by at least two more years of maximum value from this Nix contract. The 24-year-old won’t become extension-eligible until after the 2026 season.

Jared Goff (DET)

4 years, $160M Remaining

3 years, $113M Practical

Goff is now headlining the most explosive offense in football, putting up efficiency numbers that sit atop the league (and some all-time lists as well currently). Furthermore, he holds a very manageable $32.6M cap hit in 2025 (which can be lowered to $19.2M per a cap conversion), allowing the Lions plenty of room to operate this coming offseason.

Jordan Love (GB)

4 years, $152M Remaining

2 years, $84M Practical

The Packers wasted no time locking up Love after he sat behind Aaron Rodgers for the better part of 3+ seasons. As per usual with Green Bay’s contracts, Love’s deal is heavy cash front-loaded ($79M) which affords them both cap & cash flexibility moving forward. Love is cap friendly ($29.7M, $36.1M) through 2026.

C.J. Stroud (HOU)

2 years, $9.7M + Option Remaining

2 years, $9.7M Practical

The honeymoon is over with Stroud and this Houston team, but things still look extremely positive in both regards. The Texans will gain at least one more season of maximum value from this rookie contract ($9.9M in 2025) before Stroud will be extension-eligible. If things stay on their current path, he’ll be in line to reset an already soaring market next winter.

Anthony Richardson (IND)

2 years, $9.1M + Option Remaining

2 years, $9.1M Practical

An injury plagued rookie season has now been compounded by poor play, and a mini benching in Year 2. It’s safe to say that the 2025 offseason will be a big one both for Richardson and his future as a QB1, and for this Colts organization as they push to remain relevant in the AFC South.

Trevor Lawrence (JAX)

6 years, $267.3M Remaining

4 years, $163M Practical

Lawrence and the Jaguars agreed to keep this marriage together for the better part of 5 more seasons this past summer, and early returns aren’t great. The good part? Lawrence’s cap hits over the next two seasons ($17M, $24M respectively) give the Jags plenty of flexibility to improve this roster as needed - and it’s needed.

Patrick Mahomes (KC)

7 years, $315.5M Remaining

3 years, $160M Practical

The Chiefs sweetened the middle portion of Mahomes’ contract to account for the fact that the best football player on the planet was drastically underpaid (due to a terrible contract decision). That maneuver should hold both sides over through 2027, but 32-year-old Mahomes should be in position to reset the sports contract market thereafter.

Justin Herbert (LAC)

5 years, $222.5M Remaining

4 years, $172.5M Practical

Herbert is putting together his overall best season to date in 2024, setting the Chargers up to quickly rebuild this roster into a true Harbaugh machine as quickly as possible. Herbert’s contract is secured through 2027, with $25M of 2028 compensation also carrying an early trigger.

Matthew Stafford (LAR)

2 years, $62M Remaining

$4M Guaranteed

Stafford’s contract was tweaked a bit this summer to dedicate a bit more cash to 2024, and fully guarantee a $4M roster bonus due next March. While it seems unlikely that the Rams would move on after 2024, the contract certainly allows for it. Crazier things have happened in LA.

Gardner Minshew (LV)

1 year, $12.5M Remaining

$3.16M Guaranteed

Minshew has worked in and out of the starting role thus far in 2024, putting his future in serious doubt. The Raiders can free up $6.18M of 2025 salary cap by releasing him next March, but they’ll need to pay him $3.16M out the door.

Tua Tagovailoa (MIA)

4 years, $192.5M Remaining

2 years, $109M Practical

Tua’s career seems to be hanging in the balance every time he steps on the field, but the simple fact of the matter is that Miami is a much better football team when he’s out there. Contractually, the Dolphins are tied to all $51M of his 2025 compensation, while $54M of 2026 salary fully guarantees this coming March.

Sam Darnold (MIN)

Pending Free Agent

The shine on Darnold’s season has worn off a bit, but he still pegs to be the most notable free agent quarterback on the open market this March. Will there be a slam dunk starting opportunity for him out there? If so, Baker Mayfield’s 3 year, $100M re-up in Tampa Bay seems a likely starting point. Behind him, J.J. McCarthy has 3 years, $8.5M plus an option through 2028.

Drake Maye (NE)

3 years, $12.4M + Option Remaining

3 years, $12.4M Practical

Maye’s progression out of the gate - despite an underwhelming offense around him - has been one of the brighter spots of 2024 thus far. The Patriots, and their league high $100M+ cap space, could be poised for a massive offseason to ramp up and get the most out of Maye while he holds max value.

Derek Carr (NO)

2 years, $90M Remaining

$10M Guaranteed

When healthy, Carr’s been an efficient option for an underperforming Saints team, and New Orleans doesn’t appear to have their next QB1 currently rostered. While Carr’s deal does offer a soft out after 2024, it seems likely that he’ll get one more year out of this contract before all parties cut ties.

Daniel Jones (NYG)

2 years, $78M Remaining

$23M injury guarantee

Jones’ time in NY is dwindling. There’s simply no other way to look at it right now. His contract carries a $23M injury guarantee for the 2025 season, and with 2024 more than half gone, it’s just smart business for the Giants to sit him down and preserve their ability to release him next March, a move that will free up at least $19.4M of cap ($30.5M if Post June 1st). 

Aaron Rodgers (NYJ)

1 year, $37.5M Remaining

No future guarantee

Rodgers and Jets have been largely disappointing in 2024, setting up an awful lot of big decisions from the top down this winter. If Rodgers wants to continue his career, it seems plausible that the Jets would strongly consider keeping him through 2025 (unless Jordan Travis becomes an offseason star), but so much of this depends on how chips fall with the GM/Coaching Staff, etc… in the coming weeks. If this is it for Rodgers and the Jets (release/retirement/trade), NYJ will need to take on $49M of unallocated bonus dead cap going forward.

Jalen Hurts (PHI)

4 years, $195M Remaining

3 years, $144M Practical

The Hurts contract was looking like a problem prior to 2024, but he’s mostly righted the ship thus far this season, navigating his Eagles squad into 2 seed contention in the NFC. The 26-year-old is mostly guaranteed through 2026 right now, with early vesting triggers leading through the 2027 season.

Russell Wilson (PIT)

Pending Free Agent

Wilson hasn’t looked back since taking over the QB1 role from Justin Fields 4 weeks ago, setting himself up for a potential contract extension to remain as such for the next year or two. The projected $42M franchise tag seems a bit much for this current situation right now, and it’s unclear if other teams would be bidding for Wilson’s services just yet, but all of it should be on the table at this point.

Geno Smith (SEA)

1 year, $25M Remaining

Non-Guaranteed

The final year of Smith’s contract in Seattle includes a $10M roster bonus due March 16th (which could escalate a bit based on 2024 incentives). The 34-year-old’s efficiency numbers are largely down, but the overall production has remained consistent for the better part of 2 ½ seasons. A healthy set of weapons down the stretch could help to solidify his role in 2025. The Seahawks can free up $25M of cap space if they decide to cut ties.

Brock Purdy (SF)

1 year, $1.11M Remaining

Non-Guaranteed

Quite possibly the biggest name to watch as the calendar turns to 2025, Purdy has a very strong chance of resetting the NFL contract market - an unimaginable feat for a former #262 overall draft pick. The Niners may try to slow play this and make him play out his rookie contract before finalizing anything significant, but Purdy & his representation likely won’t stand for that this offseason.

Baker Mayfield (TB)

2 years, $70M Remaining

$10M Guaranteed

At this point the question isn’t will Mayfield and the Buccaneers continue on together, it’s will Mayfield agree to remain in this contract? He enters Week 11 with a Passer Rating north of 103, a Completion Percent north of 70, and  24/9 TD/INT split. The Bucs probably want him to remain on the $30M salary through 2025 before discussing something new, but it’s a powerful time for legitimate QB1s in this league.

Will Levis (TEN)

2 years, $3.61M Remaining

$2.85M Guaranteed

It’s been a miserable go around for Levis in his sophomore campaign when combining both injury & poor play. There’s a very realistic chance that Tennessee signs or drafts his replacement this coming spring, pushing Levis into a backup role, or simply buying out his remaining contract to move on completely ($4.8M dead cap).

Jayden Daniels (WSH)

3 years, $12.67M + Option Remaining

3 years, $12.67M Practical

So far so good, though a recent injury has slowed the honeymoon phase of Daniels’ rookie campaign dramatically. The Commanders have notable pieces in place on both sides of the ball right now, setting up what could be a very aggressive offseason now that they have a taste of legitimacy for the first time in a long time.

 


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