NFL 2025 Roster Bubble Candidates

Michael Ginnitti
Michael Ginnitti, Managing Editor & NFL/MLB ExpertNovember 18, 2024
© USA TODAY Sports

Spotrac’s annual NFL Roster Bubble report identifies players that have the potential to be released, traded, or retire after the current 2024 season, including notable financial ramifications for each.

RELATED: 2025 Cap Hit Rankings

QUARTERBACKS

PLAYER 2025 CAP HIT 2025 DEAD CAP OUTLOOK
Deshaun Watson (CLE, 29) $72,935,000 $172,770,000 The provided numbers here are inconceivable, but real, further compounding a titanic mess in Cleveland. Nothing would surprise us at this point, but a situation where the Browns eat a portion of the $92M remaining, packaged with a draft pick or two to facilitate a trade for Watson isn’t too wild - thought it would mean a dead cap hit at or around $100M when all is said and done. Until Cleveland says otherwise, this is a must-watch situation.
Matthew Stafford (LAR, 36) $53,666,666 $49,333,336 Stafford is playing well enough to keep around for 2025, but the contract offers the Rams a decent out after 2024 if they look to make an aggressive move this offseason. There’s $49.3M of dead cap to deal with, including $4M cash, so a move is in no way a likely outcome.
Derek Carr (NO, 33) $51,458,000 $50,132,000 Carr is a fringe bubble candidate both because of performance & contractual ramifications. The Saints could designate him a Post 6/1 release before March 16th, taking on dead hits of $21.4M in 2025; $28.6M in 2026.
Daniel Jones (NYG, 27) $41,605,000 $22,210,000 Jones was given every opportunity to win a 3rd year from his contract, but it wasn’t meant to be. NYG likely rips the dead cap band-aid off all at once here, taking on the $22.21M in 2025, freeing up $19.4M of cap.
Geno Smith (SEA, 34) $38,500,000 $13,500,000 Smith is a winning QB and a phenomenal resuscitation story, but he’ll remain a year-to-year player from here out regardless. The Seahawks don’t have a better option right now, but things can change quickly, and there’s $25M of cap to be freed here if needed. For the record, Smith is as much an extension candidate as he is a release.
Aaron Rodgers (NYJ, 41) $23,500,000 $49,000,000 Whether it’s a trade, a release, or a retirement, the Jets are on the hook for $49M of dead cap to move on from Rodgers in 2025. A Post 6/1 transaction is the most likely outcome, splitting that number into $14M for 2025; $35M for 2026.
Gardner Minshew (LV, 28) $14,000,000 $7,660,000 $3.16M of Minshew’s 2025 salary is fully guaranteed, so an outright release would mean a bit of a buyout here (though offset language could help refund some of that down the road). 
Bryce Young (CAR, 23) $10,351,383 $22,427,997 The Panthers have already received initial trade calls on Young, so it’s not inconceivable that they continue to listen this offseason. A Post 6/1 trade would free up $4.2M of cap.
Anthony Richardson (IND, 22) $9,271,099 $20,087,382 The Colts reportedly fielded trade calls for Richardson at the deadline, but appear poised to attempt to develop him as quickly as possible on the field. If the current administration decides he’s too big of a project for their current window, a pre-draft move could be possible, though it would cost Indy around $1.6M of cap space.
Will Levis (TEN, 25) $2,602,409 $4,827,467 With $2.85M of Levis’ remaining salary fully guaranteed, the Titans will lose salary cap space to outright release him (even after June 1st). Barring a trade (which would free up $632k of cap before 6/1), it’s likely that Levis remains with Tennessee, even if he relinquishes the QB1 role in 2025.
Aidan O'Connell (LV, 26) $1,157,345 $254,690 O’Connell has been in and out of the starting lineup for LV across 2023-2024, but has no real path to keep that role going forward. He’s cheap enough to stash as a backup for another season or two, but The Raiders could just opt for the $900k of savings here as well.
Skylar Thompson (MIA, 27) $1,120,554 $20,554 Thompson’s foothold as a backup in Miami seems to be extremely shaky, and the Dolphins will need every bit of the $1.1M of cap to be opened up here AND a viable QB2 to account for Tua’s fragility.

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