Juan Soto to the Mets

Michael Ginnitti
Michael Ginnitti, Managing Editor & NFL/MLB ExpertDecember 09, 2024
© USA TODAY Sports

It happened. After months of rumors stating that Mets’ owner Steve Cohen wouldn’t be underbid for prize free agent OF Juan Soto - rumor became reality on Sunday night.

The New York Mets and Juan Soto agreed to an historic 15 year, $765 million free agent contract that includes no deferred money, a $75M signing bonus, $15M of available escalators (TBD), and a player opt-out after the 2029 season that can be voided with an additional $40M guarantee. In other words - this is a $765M contract today, but could finish off as an $820M deal before it’s all said and done.

The Total Value

Soto’s $765 million base value guarantee is the largest in MLB history, surpassing Shohei Ohtani’s blockbuster contract with the Dodgers last winter. The previous high mark came from Mike Trout’s $426.5M extension in Los Angeles of Anaheim.

However, Ohtani’s deal in LA contains significant deferrals ($680M), lowering the present day value of the contract down to $460M (though it should be noted here that the player will still be earning all $700M). In this sense, Soto’s deal in Queens obliterates every one contract in MLB history.

Largest Total Value Contracts in MLB History
1. Juan Soto, $765M
2. Shohei Ohtani, $700M
3. Mike Trout, $426.5M
4. Mookie Betts, $365M
5. Aaron Judge, $360M

Complete MLB Contract Rankings

For the record, Soto’s 15 year, $765M contract is also the longest contract in MLB history, surpassing Fernando Tatis Jr.s’ 14 year contract in San Diego.

The Original Offer

Juab Soto was an international signing by the Washington Nationals back in 2015 to the tune of a $1.5M bonus. He would help take the Nats to a World Series Championship in 2019, prompting the organization to eventually lay down a $440M contract extension offer to Soto & agent Scott Boras. The deal would buy out the rest of Soto’s arbitration years at $54M, with 13 years, $386M built into the free agency portion of the contract.

Soto’s new deal with the Mets nearly doubles that output.

The Average/CBT Salary

From an average per year standpoint, Soto’s $51M to be earned trails only Ohtani’s $70M, who of course won’t be actually earning $70M per year at any point in time due to the 10-year deferral package.

Highest APY in MLB History
1. Shohei Ohtani, $70M*
2. Juan Soto, $51M
T3. Max Scherzer, $43.3M
T3. Justin Verlander, $43.3M
5. Zack Wheeler, $42M

*deferrals

Complete Contract APY Rankings

From a collective balance tax salary perspective, things end up a little bit different. As noted above, Ohtani’s deferrals lower his present day value, and subsequent tax salary, down from $700M/$70M to $460.08M/$46.08M. With no deferred compensation built into the Soto deal, his $51M now rises to the top of the list - by nearly $5M.

Highest CBT Salary in MLB History
1. Juan Soto, $51M
2. Shohei Ohtani, $46.08M
3. Zack Wheeler, $42M
4. Aaron Judge, $40M
5. Jacob deGrom, $37M

Complete Tax Salary Rankings

Soto’s $51M salary represents 21.1.% of the $241M MLB threshold for 2025.

The Opt-Out

Following the 2029 season (when Soto will have just turned 30-years-old), Juan Soto will have the ability to opt-out of the remaining 10 years, $460M.

The team will then have the ability to void that opt-out with an additional $40M guarantee ($4M added to each of the remaining 10 seasons). The Yankees had a similar setup with SP Gerit Cole, but the two sides decided to void the opt-out this past winter and focus on a new, tbd contract instead.

The Signing Bonus

Soto’s $75M signing bonus is by far the largest in league history, surpassing Mookie Betts’ $65M bonus in LA. The payout will help Soto from an income tax purpose in the state of NY, and it front-loads a total of $295M into the first 5 seasons of this contract.

Largest MLB Signing Bonuses
1. Juan Soto, $75M
2. Mookie Betts, $65M
3. Blake Snell, $52M
T4. Yoshinobu Yamamoto, $50M
T4. Max Scherzer, $50M

Career Earnings

At the surface, adding $765M to Soto's previously earned $82.3M brings his career number over $847M. But that's likely only the start of this story, right? It seems hard to imagine that the opt-out/buyback in 2030 will happen, adding another $40M to Soto's bottom line. Now we're approaching $888M, and there appear to be incentives/escalators available that can get us into the $900M conversation before it's all said and done.

The only person even in this same stratosphere is of course Ohtani, who will have cashed in over $742M in his career once the deferrals are all paid out.

Final Thoughts

We’ll save our complete concluding thoughts until the full salary/escalator breakdown becomes available, but for now this is simply a wow. The bidding for Soto was large, historic, and surprisingly out loud. Numbers that were being floated around by league reporters wound up being 100% factual, with at least 4 teams willing to go into the $700M pool at one point in time.

The Mets - as was always the assumed case - simply came in with a final offer that couldn’t be matched, and the additional $40M opt-out void had to be the icing on the cake. Will this be the nail in the coffin to the next 2 decades of Mets offseason spending? Owner Steve Cohen’s pockets are deep enough to suggest no. After a botched first spending experience in 2022, this was always going to be the next big splash in Queens. If anything, the need to continue spending and bring a championship back to Flushing is now higher than ever, as this contract will be annually scrutinized if the success on the field doesn’t add up.

More to come as new details are confirmed.

 


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