NBA Trade Season Unofficially Opens

Keith Smith
Keith Smith, Resident NBA ExpertDecember 10, 2024
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#nba #nba trade deadline #brooklyn nets #chicago bulls #new orleans pelicans #portland trail blazers #washington wizards #denver nuggets #golden state warriors #houston rockets #los angeles lakers #orlando magic #jimmy butler
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December 15 is a big day on the NBA calendar. On that date, the vast majority of the players who signed over the summer become trade-eligible. While NBA “trade season” doesn’t have an official opening day, December 15 might as well be it. Around the league, executives refer to this period as the “Early Trade Season”.

In each of the last six seasons, the NBA has seen a trade made somewhere between days and weeks of “Early Trade Season” opening:

  • January 14, 2024: Danilo Gallinari and Mike Muscala traded from Washington Wizards to the Detroit Pistons for Marvin Bagley III and Isaiah Livers
  • December 30, 2023: RJ Barrett and Immanuel Quickley traded from the New York Knicks to the Toronto Raptors for OG Anunoby and Precious Achiuwa.
  • January 5, 2023: Noah Vonleh traded from the Boston Celtics to the San Antonio Spurs in a salary-shedding/tax avoidance move for Boston
  • January 3, 2022: Rajon Rondo traded from the Los Angeles Lakers to the Cleveland Cavaliers in a deal that also involved the New York Knicks
  • January 16, 2021 (this season worked on an adjusted calendar due to starting a month later): James Harden was traded from the Houston Rockets to the Brooklyn Nets in a deal that involved the Cleveland Cavaliers and included seven players and multiple draft picks changing hands
  • December 23, 2019: Jordan Clarkson was traded from the Cleveland Cavaliers to the Utah Jazz in exchange for Dante Exum
  • December 17, 2018: Trevor Ariza was traded from the Phoenix Suns to the Washington Wizards in exchange for Kelly Oubre Jr. and Austin Rivers

Sometimes the trades involve players where the teams had to wait for the restriction to lift, and other times it’s just time for a deal to happen. Often, these deals are the result of months of trade talks that finally come to fruition in mid-to-late-December. But one thing is certain: be on the lookout for movement when “Early Trade Season” opens on Friday, December 15.

One potential reason, beyond history, to watch for an early trade is the benefit of being an early mover. The new CBA has made it harder to make deals with hard-caps and more ways than ever to trigger them. Waiting until trade deadline week (or even deadline day) to make a major move might be hard to make happen.

Because of that, you might see sellers looking to make moves before the buyer market dries up as a result of various restrictions and tight margins around the tax and the aprons. You could also see buyers make a move early to remove the chance that things get too complicated to pull off a move closer to the February 6th deadline. In addition, the 2025 NBA Draft class is loaded and teams are going to want to put themselves in position to land as high of a pick as possible.

This year, we’ve going to present the list in terms of teams to watch as early movers: either as buyers or sellers. There’s clearly some benefit to getting things done early. We’ll break down why we are focused on these teams as the ones to make an early trade.

Sellers

Brooklyn Nets

Players to watch: The entire roster

No snark intended here. The entire Brooklyn Nets roster is available in trade talks. The Nets don’t have a franchise player Thus, they haven’t made anyone untouchable. That’s the smart approach for Brooklyn.

Why might the Nets move early? They’ve already won at a better clip than ever expected. They didn’t trade to get their draft pick back to finish in the middle of the lottery. (Yes, we know ownership and Sean Marks have both said differently, but we aren’t buying it.) Expect them to pivot towards ping pong balls sooner rather than later.

In any trades they make, the Nets will be looking for a combination of young players, draft picks and salary relief. The Nets currently project to have over $40 million in cap space this summer, but that figure could easily grow to well over $60 million if Marks gets off some future salary.

One counterproposal: This doesn’t look like a quick turnaround for Brooklyn. If they can increase their return in trades by taking on some bad long-term salary, that’s worth considering. There aren’t any splashy, quick-fix free agents that will take the team from rebuilding to contender in the span of one offseason. Eating a little money to improve the young players or draft picks they get for their veterans isn’t a bad idea.

Chicago Bulls

Players to watch: Zach LaVine, Nikola Vucevic

In reality, no one should be off limits for the Chicago Bulls. However, outside of Zach LaVine and Nikola Vucevic, there are reasons others won’t be very involved in trade talks. Some are young and part of what Chicago is building (Matas Buzelis, Coby White, Patrick Williams), while others are coming off injuries or are veterans that won’t bring much in return (Lonzo Ball, Jevon Carter, Torrey Craig).

And let’s not pretend trading LaVine or Vucevic is a simple thing either. LaVine is coming off an injury while carrying a huge contract. Vucevic is an aging big man who doesn’t offer much defensively. But both have been outstanding offensively this year and that’s rebuilt their trade value.

LaVine looks healthy again. He’s been quick and explosive. The veteran guard is turning in one of his best all-around offensive seasons. Yes, his contract is large ($138 million through 2026-27), but LaVine is proving to be worth it. It’s unlikely that a better offensive player will be available at this deadline.

As for Vucevic, he’s having a career-year on offense. The veteran center is shooting 58.7% from the field. That would shatter his career-best mark by over six percentage points. In addition, Vucevic is hitting 47.4% of his three-pointers. Again, easily a career-best mark.

Sure, there’s going to be some drop-off coming. Vucevic is unlikely to maintain such a torrid pace. But there’s not going to be a better offensive center (and he still rebounds at a pretty good clip too) available this trade season than Vucevic.

Despite history to the contrary, the Bulls could be an early mover to accelerate moving towards a better draft pick. Chicago owes a top-10 protected pick to the San Antonio Spurs. They don’t want to be anywhere near that cutoff line come lottery time.

New Orleans Pelicans

Players to watch: Brandon Ingram, C.J. McCollum, Zion Williamson

To be fair, Brandon Ingram has been on trade watch since last summer. We’re still here. The difference now is that Ingram recently changed agents and that’s usually done to spark movement on an extension or a trade.

Here’s the challenge: Ingram just suffered a pretty severe ankle injury. He’s expected to miss multiple weeks. That could slow things down as far as his trade market goes.

To continue to be fair, it’s probably not really likely that C.J. McCollum gets traded, and even less likely Zion Williamson does. But talks now could set the stage for a summer move. If New Orleans resets around a core of Dejounte Murray, Trey Murphy III and Herb Jones and draft picks, they could move the others to hasten that reset, including whoever they get with a likely high draft pick.

It’s that likelihood of a top pick that means the Pelicans could be an early mover. They’re going to want to stay inside the top few picks in the lottery, both to help their odds and to guard against slipping down if others jump up.

New Orleans has said they want to get a look at the roster when healthy, but that doesn’t seem likely to happen this season. Because of that, look here for a big move or two before the deadline.

Portland Trail Blazers

Players to watch: Jerami Grant, Duop Reath, Anfernee Simons, Robert Williams III

The Portland Trail Blazers are probably closer to the Brooklyn Nets in terms of no one being off limits than they’d like to admit. Sure, it’d cost a decent amount to get Shaedon Sharpe or Donovan Clingan (and less to get Scoot Henderson), but neither of those guys screams untouchable franchise guy.

That being said, Portland isn’t going to trade the kids they’ve drafted in the last few years. The vets? Keep a moving company on retainer for the next couple of months.

The Trail Blazers don’t want to miss out on adding a top tier player in the 2025 NBA Draft. So, they need to get to losing. Right now, Portland is seventh in the lottery. That’s not nearly bad enough to guarantee one of the best five or six players in this draft class.

How do you move down? By trading away the vets that are keeping you competitive. Jerami Grant has the long contract, but the size of any single season isn’t overly daunting anymore, not with the cap growth that is projected. Anfernee Simons has a very tradable deal and teams are always looking for backcourt scoring and shooting. Robert Williams III has a great contract, if a team can convince themselves he’ll stay healthy.

Deandre Ayton could be movable, as he’s only got a year left. If there’s a team that is just missing a center from making a playoff run, they could convince themselves to go for Ayton for a two-year look. Matisse Thybulle is kind of in the Williams camp. He’s a great defender and an improved shooter, but he’s battling an injury.

Washington Wizards

Players to watch: Malcolm Brogdon, Kyle Kuzma, Jordan Poole, Jonas Valanciunas

Basically, if you weren’t selected in the last two drafts, the Wizards will probably trade you. And that’s fine. This team is just starting the full rebuild process, even openly saying they are still in teardown mode.

Washington is already bad. Like, worst in the NBA by a wide margin bad. Why would they be an early mover? Simply to not miss out on the market. If buyers make moves early, options for Washington to trade their vets could dry up. That would be a major missed opportunity.

Expect lots of interest to come in Kyle Kuzma, Malcolm Brogdon and Jonas Valanciunas. All three vets fill holes teams are always looking to plug at the trade deadline. And all three have reasonable, tradable contracts.

Jordan Poole is more of a wild-card. His contract doesn’t look as onerous anymore, because Poole has played quite well this season. This one might be more of an offseason move, but it wouldn’t be a shocker if a team felt like Poole could help them and made a move for him now.



Buyers

Denver Nuggets

Needs: Shooting, bench depth

The Denver Nuggets don’t have a ton to work with trade-wise. They’re over the first apron, so taking back more money than they send out isn’t possible. They do have enough wiggle room under the second apron that they can combine some salary. That’s good news, as Denver can get to about $14.7 million without touching any core rotation players.

That should be enough to get Denver in the mix for some decent upgrades for their bench. This team desperately needs more shooting. They could also simply use more depth across the board. The Nuggets might also move early just so they don’t miss out. Their apron window is tight enough that they need to strike when they can.

Golden State Warriors

Needs: Star power, playmaking

Steve Kerr leaned on his depth early on to propel the Golden State Warriors to a terrific start. Now, that’s started to flip a bit. The Warriors don’t have much star power behind Stephen Curry and they severely lack in on-ball playmaker. In addition, there’s started to be some grumbling about the expanded rotation and inconsistent roles.

The Warriors scream consolidation trade. The margins are extremely tight for Mike Dunleavy Jr. to work around though. Golden State is hard-capped at the first apron and currently have just over $500,000 to work with in space. So, making a big move is tricky, but not impossible.

Mostly, for the Warriors to land a star, they’re likely going to have to put Jonathan Kuminga and/or draft picks on the table in a deal. That’s in addition to probably having to move Andrew Wiggins to match salary.

If it’s a blockbuster trade or a smaller deal to consolidate, while adding depth, expect Golden State to trade De’Anthony Melton. Yes, that’s a little harsh as he’s out for the season, but it’s really just math. Melton’s $12.8 million salary will go a long way towards salary-matching. And because he’s on an expiring deal, the Warriors could re-sign him next summer as a free agent, even if they trade him away now.

Houston Rockets

Needs: Shooting, playmaking

The Houston Rockets are kind of a tricky one. They’re still growing with their young core. They definitely need more shooting, and could use more playmaking, but they won’t want to do that at the expense of their developing players. They’ve said as much repeatedly.

In some ways, Houston is more likely to stand pat at the deadline. Then they can survey where things land, figure out what they need after a postseason run, and make their big move this coming summer.

But if Jimmy Butler really wants to play in Houston, as per reports… Or Kevin Durant surprisingly becomes available… Or (insert veteran star here) is put on the market…

Any of those probably change the calculus for the Rockets. Houston can get to over $40 million in expiring or pseudo-expiring (options or non-guarantees) tradable salary without touching a single core rotation player. Rafael Stone also has some extra draft picks to move, including ones from the Suns and the Nets.

All of the above means that if a star is available, and the Rockets want to be involved in trading for that star, they can be. That makes them a team to watch now, closer to the deadline or next offseason.

Los Angeles Lakers

Needs: Depth, scoring, playmaking, perimeter defense

Nothing has really gone right for the Los Angeles Lakers this season, outside of Dalton Knecht showing he slipped too far in the draft. When you have LeBron James and Anthony Davis, sitting in the middle isn’t acceptable. That means a shakeup is probably coming.

The Lakers struggles as a decidedly average team with little upside, combined with overflowing frustration around transaction inaction, means we’re on the clock for James to suggest a move or two is necessary. And we’re using “suggest” to be nice instead of calling it a demand, which is what it will really be.

The Lakers have the same tight margins as many others, despite not yet triggering a hard cap at either apron. But being well over the first apron, and barely below the second apron, means that Rob Pelinka is going to have to be careful with any moves he makes.

Despite that, Los Angeles has tradable salaries. The only really off-limits players will probably be James, Davis and possibly Knecht (less so for the rookie, but they aren’t just tossing him in deals either). D’Angelo Russell, Rui Hachimura, Jarred Vanderbilt, any of the minimum players and, yes, the once-untouchable Austin Reaves could all be moved.

For the Lakers, the reason to make an early move is simple: They need to climb the standings. The last two years have seen Los Angeles have to push really hard for postseason positioning, and that’s resulted in still having to work through the Play-In Tournament. If they want to avoid that this year, stacking wins sooner rather than later is important.

Orlando Magic

Needs: Shooting, playmaking, wing depth

The Orlando Magic have stayed remarkably solid since losing Paolo Banchero. But with Franz Wagner now down with the same injury as Banchero suffered, we’re approaching “three darts is too much” territory for Orlando.

That’s why the Magic are potentially a team to watch to make an early move. This team is good. They’ll be really good when they get Banchero and Wagner back, and that will happen as neither is out for the season. The defense will keep Orlando afloat for the next few weeks, but they could use more offensive punch.

Orlando has all of their own first- and second-round picks, an extra first-round pick (from Denver) and a couple of extra second-round picks. The Magic roster is also pretty well-stocked with talent, meaning rostering a whole bunch more young players might not be possible over the next few years.

In addition, Jeff Weltman can put together some packages featuring solid veterans, youngsters with upside and draft picks. That should have the Magic in position to make a move if they find one.

Here’s the challenge: Orlando has been active at the deadline in the past, but it’s generally been with smaller moves, especially after they held a fire sale in 2021.

The counter: None of the Magic teams since then have been as good as this one is. This Magic team can make a real playoff run. They need to bolster the offense around Banchero and Wagner to do that. By making an early move, Orlando could stabilize the offense until the stars return, while setting themselves up even better in the long-term.



Bonus Player to Watch

Jimmy Butler

News broke on Tuesday that the Miami Heat are open to listening to offers for Jimmy Butler. That’s not all that surprising, given Butler and the Heat have seemed to be moving in different directions since last summer. Pat Riley was critical of Butler during the offseason, while Butler was scarcely moved in his extension desires.

Is a trade coming here? Butler makes $48.8 million this season. That’s a very big number to move in-season. But it’s not impossible. For example. Houston could get there relatively easily (Miami would need to waive a bunch of players or re-route them elsewhere because it would be an imbalanced trade roster-wise). The Warriors are reportedly star-hunting, have liked Butler in the past and could put together some contracts to make a run at the veteran wing.

A player of Butler’s status appearing on the trade market juices things. Also, acquiring someone like Butler takes a bit of time to gel. That could mean we see him on the move sooner rather than later this trade season. Think of this like the OG Anunoby or Pascal Siakam moves last year. Big trades that came together earlier than expected, but helped to kickstart the Raptors rebuild, while pushing the Knicks and Pacers playoff runs.

 


#nba #nba trade deadline #brooklyn nets #chicago bulls #new orleans pelicans #portland trail blazers #washington wizards #denver nuggets #golden state warriors #houston rockets #los angeles lakers #orlando magic #jimmy butler
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