The Complexity of a Jimmy Butler Trade

Keith Smith
Keith Smith, Resident NBA ExpertDecember 12, 2024
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#nba #trade #jimmy butler #jimmy butler #miami heat #phoenix suns #houston rockets #golden state warriors #dallas mavericks
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While reports, and denials of some of those reports, are flying all over the place, one thing is clear: Jimmy Butler is no longer a lock to stay with the Miami Heat. After being seen as a perfect match of player and team for several years, it now looks like a Butler-Heat divorce is inevitable.

How did we get here?

It’s been bubbling for a bit now. Butler has been somewhat injury-prone during his run with the Heat. But he was always there when Miami needed him most, leading the team to NBA Finals runs in 2020 and 2023. That was true until Butler missed last season’s playoffs and the Heat were bounced in five mostly non-competitive games against the Boston Celtics.

Following that series loss, Butler said the Celtics would have been “at home” if he had played. Butler also said that if he was on the Philadelphia 76ers, they would have beaten the New York Knicks. Heat president Pat Riley didn’t want to hear it from his star player.

“For him to say that, I thought ‘Is that Jimmy trolling or is that Jimmy serious?’” Riley said in a postseason press conference. “If you're not on the court playing against Boston or on the court playing against the New York Knicks, you should keep your mouth shut and your criticism of those teams.”

Riley then challenged Butler to figure out what he wants to be for the Heat moving forward, including stating that his star player has to play more. But despite all of that, when pressed if he’d consider trading Butler, Riley kept it simple by saying, “No.”

Flashing forward a bit, Butler has wanted an extension from Miami. He’s recently said that money isn’t the most important thing, but Butler also isn’t likely to take any kind of massive team-friendly discount either. That leaves some room between Butler’s $52.4 million player option for 2025-26 and whatever his starting point would be in an extension.

However, the Heat haven’t been willing to budge much in extension talks. It doesn’t seem to be a case where Miami is lowballing Butler, as much as it seems like there just isn’t anything happen at all.

And that’s landed us here.

Earlier this week, reports broke that Butler would prefer to land with a contender if he’s traded. Two teams on his list, the Dallas Mavericks and Houston Rockets, play in Butler’s native Texas. A third team is the Golden State Warriors, who are committed to making the most of whatever Stephen Curry and Draymond Green have left in them over the next few years.

On Wednesday, ESPN reported that the Phoenix Suns are another team that Butler would like to be traded too. That report was denied by Butler’s agent Bernie Lee in a series of social media posts, but that hasn’t kept speculation from running rampant over the day or so.

You have the history. Now, let’s dive into how a Butler trade could come together for each of his reportedly preferred destinations. This is the important part, because putting together a Butler trade isn’t an easy matter.

Let’s first understand Jimmy Butler’s contract. Here’s what it looks like:

  • 2024-25: $48,798,677
  • 2025-26: $52,413,394 (player option)
  • Total: two years, $101,212,071

Next, let’s look at where the Miami Heat sit with the luxury tax and the first and second aprons:

  • $13.9 million over the luxury tax
  • $9.2 million over the first apron
  • $1.6 million under the second apron

It’s also important to note that the Heat are not hard-capped at either the first or second apron. That means Miami can aggregate players in trades, provided the end result sees them staying under the second apron. However, because the Heat are well over the first apron, they can’t take back more salary in a deal than they send out, because that would trigger a first-apron hard cap. These factors are going to be crucial to remember as we piece together possible options.

Got all that? Good! Let’s dive in!

(Note: We’re presenting these mostly as straight-up two-team trades. There are scenarios where involving a third team can make a deal work, but we’re using a standard two-team framework to demonstrate the complexity in a Butler trade. Also: We’re only demonstrating the challenges of matching salary in a Butler deal. We’re not getting into player and draft picks values here.)

Phoenix Suns

We’re starting with the Phoenix Suns idea, because it’s the freshest rumor and simultaneously the most complex and the most simple one to tackle. Phoenix trading for Jimmy Butler is tricky because the Suns are so far over the second apron that they can’t even see it anymore ($31.5 million over). That means, Phoenix can’t take back more salary than they send out (kind of…we’ll get there momentarily!) and Phoenix also can’t aggregate salaries in a trade either.

That means any trade that sends Butler to the Suns has to send Bradley Beal, Devin Booker or Kevin Durant back to Miami. There’s simply no other way to make a deal work.

The Suns can’t aggregate salaries in trades, so they have to send one of Beal, Booker or Durant to the Heat. However, each player in that trio makes more money than Butler does. Because the Heat are already over the first apron, they can’t take back even one dollar more than what Butler makes in a straight-up deal. The Suns also can’t take back more salary than they send out, so taking back even a minimum-salary player makes this difficult to work.

So, we’re dead in the water, right? Not so fast, my friend!

In NBA trades, each side is allowed to structure a deal in the way that is most beneficial for them. This can be to create a trade exception, or sometimes simply to make a deal legal. It’s that last part where the Suns and Heat could push a trade through. 

Proposed trade:

  • Miami Heat acquire Bradley Beal
  • Phoenix Suns acquire Jimmy Butler, Josh Richardson

Here’s how it looks in our handy NBA Trade Machine on Spotrac:

Here’s how it works:

  • Butler and Richardson combined make less than Beal, so Miami is clear there.
  • Miami would trigger a second-apron hard cap, because they have aggregated players in this deal. The Heat would be roughly $3.3 million under the second apron following the trade. Thankfully, that’s more than enough room to fill out their roster to the required 14 players on standard contracts.
  • Phoenix isn’t aggregating in this deal, so there are no concerns there.
  • The Suns get around the restriction of taking back more salary than they sent out by breaking this up into two trades on their side.
    • Butler is acquired for Beal. Butler makes less than Beal, so no issue there.
    • Richardson is acquired via the Minimum Exception (which allows for any player signed via the Minimum Exception to be acquired in a trade).

(Note: This trade also works with Alec Burks or Thomas Bryant in place of Richardson, but that leaves the Heat with less space under the second apron to fill out their roster post-trade.)

Now, it’s important to note that Bradley Beal has a no-trade clause. Yes, he was reportedly interested in playing in Miami in the past, but that was with Jimmy Butler, not in replace of him. Maybe Beal would be fine with heading back east, but his no-trade clause complicates things quite a bit. He can scuttle any deal if it doesn’t work for him. Basically: Beal has control here, not the teams.

And, yes, this trade would work if you substituted Kevin Durant or Devin Booker for Beal, but it’s unlikely that the Suns would go in that direction.

One last thing: The Suns (or any team acquiring Butler) could extend Butler after this deal. He’d have to decline his player option for next season, and he’d be limited in years and dollars. Neither of those seem like major stumbling blocks, as longer deals would see Butler bumping up against the Over-38 rule and he’s already on a near-max salary as it is.

Houston Rockets

We’re going to cover the Houston Rockets next, because the path to a Butler trade isn’t that complicated for them mechanics-wise. Houston faces no meaningful apron-related restrictions and can aggregate salaries together. The Rockets have more than enough clearance under the luxury tax and the aprons to take back more salary than they send out without any worries.

Houston is sitting on nearly $41 million in expiring or pseudo-expiring (team options and non-guarantees) that they could put into a trade. The Rockets also have a bunch of interesting young players and they have draft assets to put into trade offers too.

Rockets GM Rafael Stone recently reiterated once again that he’s not looking to make a major deal this season. He wants to see what Houston does with this core before committing to adding veterans. We’ll take him at his word…for now. If the cost for Butler comes down enough, or a more appealing veteran star becomes available in the next couple of months, it wouldn’t be a surprise to see Stone change his tune a bit.

And that’s fine! Stone doesn’t need to play his hand yet. He’s got a good thing going and he’s got no reason to mess around today. He’s got roughly two more months of evaluation before the deadline to figure out if the Rockets need to do anything or not.

We’re not going to present a proposed trade here, because the options are so plentiful. Play with Rockets-Heat ideas using our NBA Trade Machine until your heart’s content!

Dallas Mavericks

Dallas faces some issues in a potential Jimmy Butler trade. The Mavericks are hard-capped at the first apron (by virtue of the Klay Thompson sign-and-trade acquisition). In addition, the Mavs are only $386,752 under the first apron. That’s a pretty tight margin to work with.

On the plus side, Dallas doesn’t have any aggregation restrictions. That’s good, because the only way they can make a deal is by stacking together a whole bunch of contracts. We’re assuming Luka Doncic and Kyrie Irving are off-limits here, because why would you add Butler while moving one of your current stars?

Proposed trade:

  • Miami Heat acquire Daniel Gafford, Quentin Grimes, Maxi Kleber, Dwight Powell, P.J. Washington
  • Dallas Mavericks acquire Jimmy Butler

Here’s how it looks in our handy NBA Trade Machine on Spotrac:

Here’s how it works:

  • The Dallas side works, despite the Mavericks taking on more salary than they are sending out by about $600,000. Because P.J. Washington has $500,000 in incentives in his deal, those currently count towards the first apron for the Mavericks. When you send Washington out, those incentives go with him. That creates enough space under the first-apron hard cap to push the trade through.
  • However…Dallas would be only $228,917 under the first apron post-trade. And, as you can see, Dallas would have fill three roster spots. That’s not enough space to get back into the roster requirement of having 14 players on standard contracts.

And that’s where we’ll basically cut it off for Dallas. Yes, there are other ways to make a legal trade that also lets the Mavericks fill out their roster, but they all get unlikely, unwieldy or both.

We’ll also add that there’s been some very credible reporting out of Dallas that the Mavericks aren’t ready to take on another near-max veteran with new contracts upcoming for both Luka Doncic and Kyrie Irving in the near future. Let’s just move along.

Golden State Warriors

We saved the most likely team for last, because they are easily the most complicated situation to figure out.

What makes the Warriors the most likely team to trade for Jimmy Butler? They reportedly want another on-ball creator to ease the burden on Stephen Curry and Draymond Green to key everything for their offense. Golden State is also reportedly ok with adding veterans to match Curry’s and Green’s timeline to make the most of whatever the two veteran stars have left.

What makes this the most complicated situation? Once again, it’s those pesky aprons and hard caps!

The Warriors are hard-capped at the first apron. And they have only $533,659 in wiggle room under that marker. Here’s how tight things are for the Dubs: They can’t even fill their 15th roster spot right now, because they don’t have enough space for even a prorated minimum signing under the first-apron hard cap.

On the Heat side, they aren’t hard-capped, but they are only $1,638,713 under the second apron.

Both sides can aggregate salaries, but these margins are really tight. Like pants the day after Thanksgiving tight.

You put in an extra player on the Miami side, and the deal isn’t legal on the Golden State side. You switch out one player for another on the Warriors side and it isn’t legal on the Heat side.

Because of that, we’re going to add in the Detroit Pistons as a facilitator.

Proposed trade:

  • Miami Heat acquire Jonathan Kuminga, De’Anthony Melton, Andrew Wiggins from Golden State, top-55 protected second-round pick from Detroit
  • Golden State Warriors acquire Jimmy Butler
  • Detroit Pistons acquire Gary Payton II

Here’s how it looks in our handy NBA Trade Machine on Spotrac:

Here’s how it works:

  • The Heat are taking back approximately $2 million less than they are sending out. That gives them the clearance to push the trade through while not tripping over a first-apron hard cap.
  • Golden State clears about $7 million in this deal. Given the Warriors need to sign at least three players to get back into roster compliance with 14 players on standard contracts, that’s enough space to make that happen.
  • Detroit still has $10 million in cap space. They can easily absorb Gary Payton II’s deal.
  • The Pistons also have an open roster spot, which makes taking in Payton no issue.
  • Miami would have to waive a player, or they could route one of their other players somewhere else in a deal, before completing this trade.
  • Because Miami and Detroit have to connect to satisfy the “touch rules” in a multi-team trade, we have the Pistons sending the Heat a top-55 protected second-round pick to meet that requirement.

Now, we can, and should, argue about the values here. That’s not really what the exercise was about. Yes, maybe the Heat wouldn’t want Andrew Wiggins contract, but there’s no reasonable way to make this trade happen without Wiggins in the deal.

Summary

If Jimmy Butler wants to get to a contender, especially one with hard cap and apron issues, it’s not going to be easy. Fortunately for the Miami Heat, they have one of the NBA’s preeminent CBA/salary cap maestros in Andy Elisburg in their front office. If it can be done, Elisburg will find a way to make it happen.

The main point of this exercise was to show that trading Butler to the Suns, Warriors, Mavericks or Rockets (the last one is super simple) isn’t impossible. Unlikely? Maybe. Needs to involve a third team? Possibly. Tricky to make work given trade rules and satisfying value requirements on all side? Absolutely.

But it’s not impossible for Jimmy Butler to get where he wants to go. And NBA history tells us that when a star wants to be somewhere, he more often than not gets to that destination.

 

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NBA Trade Machine


#nba #trade #jimmy butler #jimmy butler #miami heat #phoenix suns #houston rockets #golden state warriors #dallas mavericks
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