The Memphis Grizzlies Need Jaren Jackson Jr To Make All-NBA This Season

Keith Smith
Keith Smith, Resident NBA ExpertJanuary 14, 2025
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The Memphis Grizzlies should be rooting hard for Jaren Jackson Jr. to make an All-NBA team (increasingly likely) or to win Defensive Player of the Year (Jackson is in the mix, but it may be Victor Wembanyama’s award to lose) for the 2024-25 season.

Breaking News: NBA team wants their player to get accolades for a great season.

No kidding, right?

But this goes way deeper for Jackson and Memphis. And it could ultimately have an impact on the team’s ability to keep their versatile big man long-term. Before we go there, let’s go back to understand where the Grizzlies and Jackson are currently at.

Back in the 2021 offseason (in October due to the COVID-impacted adjusted calendar), the Grizzlies signed Jackson to a four-year, $104.7 million rookie scale extension. Memphis got Jackson on an under-market deal because he was coming off a knee injury that had cost him most of the 2020-21 season.

Beyond getting Jackson for less than the max, the Grizzlies were hailed at the time for making the extension a declining contract. Jackson’s extension looks like this:

  • 2022-23: $28,946,605
  • 2023-24: $27,102,202
  • 2024-25: $25,257,798
  • 2025-26: $23,413,395
  • Total: four years, $107,720,000

Well done by Memphis, right? Jackson is clearly returning more than $25.3 million in value this season (more on that in a moment) and he’s an absolute steal at $23.4 million for next season. Hard to find any criticism for the Grizzlies with this deal.

Well, not exactly…kind of. It’s not really the Grizzlies fault, but more of the circumstances of the CBA.

Memphis did a great job protecting themselves on this deal. Despite some great flashes in his first two seasons, Jackson had piled up quite the list of leg injuries. And the 11-game sample in the 2020-21 season, plus playoffs, wasn’t exactly screaming All-NBA guy.

So, in full context, Memphis signed Jackson to a very fair, and smartly structured, contract at the time. And now it could come back to bite them.

Whenever a player signs a less-than-max deal, while having loads of potential, we all get excited as cap analysts and fans. If that contract is declining, it becomes a full-blown celebration. It’s time to re-think that, at least a bit.

Under the current CBA, the NBA has made veteran extensions more lucrative than ever. Instead of being limited to a 120% raise over the final-season salary, teams can bump a player up by 140%. That’s better, but it’s still not enough in a lot of cases.

Let’s use Jackson as an example. He’s extension-eligible this summer. Because he’ll have one year left on his deal, Jackson can add four new years to his contract. Here’s what Jackson’s new deal could look like:

  • 2025-26: $23,413,395 (final season of current deal)
  • 2026-27: $32,778,753 (first season of extension)
  • 2027-28: $35,401,053
  • 2028-29: $38,023,353
  • 2029-30: $40,645,653
  • Total extension: four years, $146,848,812

That’s a full 140% bump for Jackson in the first year of his extension, plus 8% raises on the subsequent years.

That probably looks pretty good, but again, we need to frame this with some context.

Here’s the percentage of the cap that each of the above extension years would reflect:

  • 2026-27: 19%
  • 2027-28: 19%
  • 2028-29: 18%
  • 2029-30: 18%

This projects the cap to continue to grow at the maximum allowable 10% per year throughout the life of Jackson’s potential veteran extension.

That’s well below the 30% of the cap maximum Jackson could sign for if he delayed signing a new deal until he was an unrestricted free agent in the summer of 2026. That deal would look like this:

  • 2026-27: $51,033,600 (30% of projected $170,112,000 cap)
  • 2027-28: $55,116,288
  • 2028-29: $59,198,976
  • 2029-30: $62,281,664
  • 2030-31: $67,364,352
  • Total: five years, $295,994,880

That’s full five-year deal using Jackson’s Bird Rights that starts at his max of 30% of the cap with 8% raises.

To be fair, we’ll eliminate the fifth year, just to do a four-year to four-year comparison of the veteran extension against the new contract:

  • Veteran Extension: four years, $146,848,812
  • New Contract: four years, $228,630,528

Jackson could be leaving nearly $82 million on the table by signing a veteran extension this summer, as opposed to waiting to sign a new deal as a free agent in the summer of 2026.

This is why signing a player to an under-market extension, combined with the declining contract can come back to bite a team. If the player breaks out, then he’s not really extendable. And, boy, has Jackson ever broken out.

Last season, Jackson was a bright spot in an injury-ravaged season for the Grizzlies. He played most of the season, only really missing games when there was little point to him playing. Playing with a lot of players on two-way and 10 Day deals (including several on Hardship contracts), Jackson managed to put together a good season. The lack of help led to some inefficiency, but the on-ball playmaker reps helped Jackson really round out his game.

This year, Jackson has built on that in a great way. As of this writing, He’s scoring a career-high 22.8 points per game on 50/35/78 shooting splits. Jackson is also grabbing 6.4 rebounds per game and handing out 2.1 assists per night.

But it’s on the defensive end where Jackson shines brightest.

Jackson is averaging 1.7 blocks and 1.5 steals per game. He’s keyed the Grizzlies fifth-ranked defense, as almost everything Memphis does is built around Jackson’s ability on that end of the floor. Jackson regularly defends 1-5, excelling on the perimeter and around the rim equally. He’s absolutely a contender to win Defensive Player of the Year.

It’s that production on defense, along with the improved offense, that might give the Grizzlies the key to paying Jackson without him ever reaching unrestricted free agency.

Even though NBA teams are no longer really spending a year or two clearing cap space to make a run at free agents, that path in roster building isn’t completely dead. It’s simply become less-used because so many players sign extensions now. However, as we covered above, a standard veteran extension isn’t going to get it done for Jaren Jackson Jr.

But a Designated Veteran Player Extension might. And that’s why the Grizzlies need to be rooting for Jackson to collect some accolades for this season.

If Jackson makes All-NBA this season or wins Defensive Player of the Year, he’d become eligible to sign a Designated Veteran Player Extension (DVPE), or so-called Super Max, this offseason. Here’s what the full DPVE would look like:

  • 2026-27: $59,539,200 (35% of projected $170,112,000 cap)
  • 2027-28: $64,302,336
  • 2028-29: $69,065,472
  • 2029-30: $73,828,608
  • 2030-31: $78,591,744
  • Total: five years, $345,327,360

That’s the 35% of the cap max with 8% raises each season. That’s the maximum a player qualifies for by reaching All-NBA status, winning Defensive Player of the Year or winning MVP.

For comparison’s sake, that’s about $49.3 million over the 30% max Jackson could get as an unrestricted free agent in 2026. It’s nearly $120 million more in the four-year-to-four-year comp to the standard veteran extension.

Now, is Jaren Jackson Jr. a full 35% of the cap max guy? Probably not, especially not for the Grizzlies.

Memphis is a small market team and they already have Ja Morant on a max extension and Desmond Bane on a near-max deal. Under the new CBA, building a team around three max players is really, really hard. And Memphis has never been a team that has dipped deep into the luxury tax.

More simply put: It’s not likely Jackson will get the full super max.

But here’s the thing: Making All-NBA or winning Defensive Player of the Year to still be a huge win for Jackson and the Grizzlies, even without the full super max.

The only ways for Memphis to pay Jackson more than he can get in a standard veteran extension are to let him hit unrestricted free agency in 2026. That’s risky. He’s good enough, and young enough, that whatever cap space teams are out there (there will be a few in the 2026 offseason) would make a run at Jackson with a full max offer. They couldn’t beat the Grizzlies deal, because those teams would be limited to offering a four-year deal with 5% raises, but it’s still a risk. No one wants their players in free agency, if they can avoid it.

The other way to pay Jackson more than the standard veteran extension is if he qualifies for the Designated Veteran Player Extension. Yes, that full super max is more than what Memphis should give Jackson. The good news? They don’t have to give him the full 35% of the cap max!

If Jackson qualifies for the DVPE, Memphis can give him a five-year deal but it only has to start at the 30% of the cap figure. The other key: It would free up Memphis to sign Jackson to this bigger, longer extension this summer. That’s huge for keeping Jackson out of free agency in 2026.

Jackson is definitely going to get a 30% of the cap max, whether it’s from the Grizzlies or another team. If he makes All-NBA or wins Defensive Player of the Year, Memphis can get that done as soon as July.

We also have a recent example of a defensive-minded big man getting extended in exactly this fashion.

When Rudy Gobert signed his last extension with the Utah Jazz in 2020 (since played out and replaced by his current extension with the Minnesota Timberwolves), he could have signed a 35% of the cap DVPE deal. But Gobert and the Jazz split the difference. Jackson and the Grizzlies could do something similar. A reasonable compromise for both sides is to probably start the extension at the 30% of the cap amount (or maybe a bit more), but with a player option on the fifth season.

That would get Jackson paid, plus give him a five-year deal, which he can only get from Memphis in free agency or on a Designated Veteran Player Extension. And, crucially, it would give Jackson the ability to get into free agency in 2030 ahead of his age-30 season. That’s definitely young enough to cash in on one more big contract, from Memphis or elsewhere.

NBA teams publicly want their players to garner accolades like MVP, Defensive Player of the Year or All-NBA. They campaign for it openly every season. That means that player had a great season, and those awards are often tied to team success as well, which means the team was likely pretty good too.

Behind closed doors, when those accolades impact the player’s ability to get paid significantly more, teams are often less enthusiastic. It can cause stress on the cap sheet in a way that might not have been planned for, especially if the player reached those heights unexpectedly. That’s even more prevalent in this new CBA world of hard caps, aprons and the restrictions that come with them.

In the case of Jaren Jackson Jr. and the Memphis Grizzlies, his breakout season is the best of both worlds. Jackson gets his accolades and the love for his play and the Grizzlies benefit by being a very good team this season. And, of course, it will allow Memphis to give Jackson a big contract early without risking one of their best players hitting unrestricted free agency. That’s a win-win scenario in a spot that’s often 50-50 at best.

 


#nba #memphis grizzlies #jaren jackson jr
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