2025 NASCAR Primer

Scott Allen
Scott Allen, ContributorJanuary 31, 2025
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NEW FACES & NEW TEAMS

NOAH GRAGSON (#4, FRONT ROW MOTORSPORTS)

Stewart-Haas Racing folded. Noah Gragson finds a full-time ride with Front Row Motorsports to drive the #4 car.

JUSTIN HALEY (#7, SPIRE MOTORSPORTS)

After locking in a multi-year contract to drive for Rick Ware Racing in 2024, Justin Haley now finds himself driving the #7 car for Spire Motorsports.

TY DILLON (#10, KAULIG RACING)

After being part-time in Cup in 2023, he finds himself with a full-time ride in the #10 car with Kauling Racing.

AJ ALLMENDINGER (#16, KAULIG RACING)

Allmendinger drove full-time in the Xfinity series last season after being full-time in Cup in 2023. He comes back to full-time cup with Kauling Racing and typically is the guy to watch on the road courses. But will his success be mitigated by Shave van Gisbergen driving full-time in Cup as well as other drivers continuing to excel in road courses?

CHASE BRISCOE (#19, JOE GIBBS RACING)

Stewart-Haas Racing folded. Martin Truex Jr retired. Chase Briscoe was giving the nod by Joe Gibbs Racing to slide into the #19 car. The question will be…how fast can Briscoe adapt to a new team, new manufacturer and will be he able to excel in with superior ownership?

JOSH BERRY (#21, WOOD BROTHERS)

Stewart-Haas Racing folded. Harrison Burton out. Josh Berry in as the new #21 driver for Wood Brothers in their 75th anniversary season.

TODD GILLILAND (#34, FRONT ROW MOTORSPORTS)

With the exit of Michael McDowell to Spire Motorsports, Todd Gilliland slides into the #34 car for Front Row Motorsports.

RILEY HERBST (#35, 23XI)

23XI has acquired a third chartered car from Stewart-Haas Racing. Riley Herbst received the nod to join Bubba Wallace and Tyler Reddick, and will drive the #35 car (a mashup of 23 and 45 numbers).

ZANE SMITH (#38, FRONT ROW MOTORSPORTS)

With Todd Gilliland sliding into the #34 car after McDowell exited, Zane Smith joined Front Row Motorsports to drive the #38 car.

COLE CUSTER (#41, HAAS FACTORY TEAM)

Stewart-Haas Racing folded. Haas Factory Team was created. Cole Custer returns to a full-time position to drive the #41 car.

RYAN PREECE (#60, RFK RACING)

RFK is running a third full-time car for the first time. Ryan Preece will drive the #60 car for RFK along side Brad Keselowski and Chris Buescher. 

MICHAEL MCDOWELL (#71, SPIRE MOTORSPORTS)

Michael McDowell made the biggest splash of silly season by moving from Front Row Motorsports to Spire Motorsports to drive the #71 car.

SHANE VAN GISBERGEN (#88, TRACKHOUSE RACING)

Trackhouse Racing brings Shane van Gisbergen full-time after getting experience full-time in Xfinitiy last season. We know he’s a road course ringer, but the big question is how well will he keep up on the ovals with the veteran drivers.

2025 SCHEDULE & PAYOUTS

While NASCAR does not directly disclose race payouts, Bob Pockrass of FOX Sports disclosed the purses for each race week for the 2024 season, so we are able to gain an estimate of what each race’s purse is likely to be in 2025. Pockrass starts every post with a disclaimer that results in the following: “Includes all payouts, all positions, including charter per-race payout and payouts based on previous three year history of charter, contribution to season-ending points fund, etc.”

While it’s no surprise that the Dayton 500 tips the scales as far as payouts are concerned, you can quickly see where the emphasis is on highest purse payouts during a season: COTA, Charlotte, Indianapolis and Phoenix (Championship). 

 Side note: The All-Star race winner receives $1 million. 

2025 NASCAR CHAMPIONSHIP ODDS

Joe Logano’s odds to win the 2024 NASCAR Cup Championship were +1200. The remaining final four drivers had odds of Ryan Blaney (+550), William Byron (+550) and Tyler Reddick (+1400)

The following are the 2025 NASCAR Championship odds courtesy of FanDuel.

BEST VALUE CHAMPIONSHIP PICK

Ford has won the last three Championships. I think this season will see a swing back to a Toyota or Chevrolet winning the championship in 2025. 

You can never count out Kyle Larson or Ryan Blaney. Logano made the playoffs in an even-year last year, so if trends continue he’ll miss it this year. 

Christopher Bell, William Byron and Denny Hamlin are looking for their first championship, but unless you are dead-set on one of them winning the championship the odds are just okay with them being in the top-5 odds.

Tyler Reddick at +950 aren’t bad odds if you think he can repeat his 2024 performance and return to the final four with a chance to win the championship. 

The last two NASCAR Champions were +1000 and +1200 in the odds. By that logic, Chase Elliott and Chase Briscoe could be in play if the trend continues. Chase Briscoe could potentially win multiple races in 2025 with the new team, new manufacture; the talent is there for sure, but time will tell how that will play out. Chase Elliott had the best average finish in 2024 after having a messy 2023 season and I think he’s starting to figure out this nextgen car to a point where I think he’ll be the car to beat in 2025. 

My pick: Chase Elliott 

ROOKIE OF THE YEAR

There are two Rookie of the Year candidates for the 2025 season: Riley Herbst and Shane van Gisbergen

RILEY HERBST (#35, 23XI)

Riley Herbst ended up 7th in points and had an average finish of 14.8 in the Xfinity series last season. He had an average finish of 32.3 through 4 races in the Cup series in 2024. 

SHANE VAN GISBERGEN (#88, TRACKHOUSE RACING)

Shane van Gisbergen ended up 12th in points and an average finish of 16.5 in the Xfinity series last season and is likely to win one or more of the road courses during the Cup season. Van Gisbergen ended up with an average finish of 22.8 through 12 races in the Cup series in 2024. 

Herbst is an up-and-coming driver and well deserved of the Cup ride, but I believe with the racing experience van Gisbergen has overall, including his twelve Cup races last season and his road course expertise will allow him to finish the season with a better average finish.

My pick: Shane van Gisbergen

DARK HORSE OF THE YEAR

CARSON HOCEVAR (#77, SPIRE MOTORSPORTS)

Last season my dark horse pick was Ty Gibbs. While Gibbs did not win any races in 2024, he made the playoffs, had 8 top-5s and 12 top-10 and had an average finish of 17.4. I do believe Gibbs will take another step forward in 2025, but to not be redundant from last season I’m going with Carson Hocevar as a Dark Horse of the year. While I do not think Carson will vie for the championship and will likely not make the playoffs I do believe he’ll make strides in 2025. He will have Michael McDowell and Justin Haley as teammates. Hocevar ended up in 21st for points and had an average finish of 18.3, right behind the likes of Kyle Busch, Ross Chastain and Bubba Wallace. If Hocevar can continue to chip away at that average finish he may find himself just outside of the playoff bubble with an opportunity to make the playoffs if a couple dominoes fall his way. 


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