The 2025 NBA trade deadline is behind us. We’ll still have a handful more transactions to come, but for the most part, the major moves are done. Extensions are the big deals to watch, along with some buyouts, signings and two-way conversions also on tap. That means it’s time to look forward to the summer of 2025!

The 2025 NBA offseason looks like a weird one. The new media rights money will start hitting, but the NBA and NBPA agreed to cap the cap growth at no more than 10% from one year to the next. That means the cap is projected to go from $140.6 million this season to just over $154.6 million for next season. That $14 million jump is a big one, but it’s not going to result in a whole of cap space around the NBA.

The reason for that is teams have gotten really aggressive in recent years with extensions. More and more players are forgoing free agency and taking the certainty of extensions. In the 2024 offseason, the only big-name All-Star to change teams via direct free agency was Paul George. A few others moved via sign-and-trades and standard trades, but free agency itself wasn’t how stars moved.

That’s likely to continue in the summer of 2025. As you’ll see, there’s barely any cap space projected to be out there this summer. Also, the free agent class projects to be devoid of stars. Most of the All-Star level guys are good bets to re-sign with their current teams, or to extend before free agency opens.

However, that doesn’t mean having spending power is completely useless. With the Apron Era fully upon us, NBA teams are embracing exceptions in different ways. This summer, there will be some value signings available, simply because the means to overpay those players as free agents aren’t available. That should make for an active summer of role player movement.

In addition, it’s going to be a big-time trade summer. If you want to acquire a star, a trade will be the way to do it. And if deadline and post-deadline rumblings are any indicator, there are going to several stars available this offseason.

With all that said, here’s how things look today for 2025 offseason spending power around the NBA. For reference: The Non-Taxpayer MLE projects to be $14.1 million for 2025-26. The Taxpayer MLE projects to be $5.1 million.

(Note: These projections are made using the noted cap and tax figures above, draft pick cap holds based on projected standings and a projection on all option and guarantee decisions by players and teams. No extensions or trades have been projected. We will call out where those types of situations could impact a team projection.)

Cap Space Team – 1 Teams

  1. Brooklyn Nets: $54.8 million in cap space

The Brooklyn Nets currently project to be the only team we can say with certainty will hit the summer with cap space. How much is somewhat up in the air. The Nets didn’t move Cam Johnson, Nic Claxton, or most of their high-salaried players at the deadline. So, they remain in place for now.

What could swing this projection even higher is the status of pending restricted free agent Cam Thomas and Day’Ron Sharpe. If the Nets were to let Thomas and Sharpe leave town, they could create up to $76.3 million in cap space.

Here’s the thing though: Why let Thomas and Sharpe leave for nothing? Brooklyn isn’t ready to spend all that much, as they are in the early stages of their rebuild. Thomas and Sharpe are good players. With no other cap space teams out there, the Nets might be able to get both back on team-friendly deals.

And, of course, keep an eye on Sean Marks with restricted free agents from other teams too. When Brooklyn previously had copious amounts of cap space, Marks tossed around several offer sheets. In the end, no matter what direction they take, the Nets are in a great place to be active players this offseason.

Swing Cap Space and Non-Taxpayer Mid-Level Exception Teams – 3 Teams

  1. Detroit Pistons: up to $26.6 million in cap space
  2. Memphis Grizzlies: up to $6.9 million in cap space
  3. Utah Jazz: up to $30.0 million in cap space

The Pistons could be a cap space team this summer, with up to $24.6 million to spend. That could aid in bringing back Malik Beasley, if he’s looking at more than the Non-Taxpayer MLE (NTMLE). If Detroit can get Beasley to come back for the NTMLE, they’re better off staying over the cap and using various Bird Rights to re-sign players like Dennis Schroder and Tim Hardaway Jr.

Utah is pretty straight forward: if John Collins opts in, they’ll be over the cap. If he doesn’t, the Jazz could have over $30 million in cap space. Given Collins will find it hard to recoup the $26.6 million he’d give up by opting out, bet on Utah to stay over the cap.

Memphis is in a super interesting situation. The Grizzlies can’t create any kind of meaningful cap space. The most they can get to is about $6.9 million, while retaining restricted free agent rights for Santi Aldama. That’s not normally enough cap space for a team to bother with, and they’ll just stay over and use the NTMLE.

However, in this specific situation, that could be enough to bump up Jaren Jackson Jr.’s salary to over $30 million in a renegotiation-and-extension. That’s an interesting way to use cap space, given the Grizzlies wouldn’t have to give up on Aldama to get it done. Of course, if Jackson makes All-NBA, he’ll be eligible for a 35% of the cap max and the Grizzlies will then stay over the cap.

Non-Taxpayer Mid-Level Exception Teams – 7 Teams

  1. Atlanta Hawks
  2. Charlotte Hornets
  3. Chicago Bulls
  4. Houston Rockets
  5. LA Clippers
  6. San Antonio Spurs
  7. Washington Wizards

This is an interesting group of teams. A few playoff teams, some up-and-coming teams and a few rebuilding teams.

Atlanta is firmly in this mix. They moved out some long-term salary, but to re-sign some free agents, or replace them, the Hawks will stay over the cap. But they should have enough clearance to use the NTMLE.

Charlotte took themselves out of the running for cap space when they took on Jusuf Nurkic’s contract for next season. That’s fine though, since the Hornets got paid a first-round pick to do so. They’re fine being a NTMLE for another season, as the rebuild continues.

Chicago moved Zach LaVine, but kept everyone else. The Bulls will have enough room to use the NTMLE, as long as things don’t get silly with Josh Giddey’s new contract.

Houston is firmly in NTMLE range. They’ll probably work out a new deal with Fred VanVleet after declining their team option, but that won’t be enough to get the Rockets to being a cap space team.

The Clippers have done such a good job managing their roster and cap sheet. LA will be able to bolster an already-strong roster by adding an NTMLE signing to the mix next season.

It feels like the Spurs shouldn’t have much money on the books, but after bringing in De’Aaron Fox, they’ll be over the cap. And that’s fine. They’ve got a strong, developing roster and they’ll be able to add to it with a NTMLE player.

Washington went the pre-agency route and took on salary for next season early by trading for Khris Middleton and Marcus Smart. That will keep the Wizards over the cap. Don’t rule out a value NTMLE signing, as they did a nice job in the Jonas Valanciunas sign-and-trade a year ago, but Washington’s real work will get done via the trade market.

Swing Non-Taxpayer Mid-Level Exception Teams and Taxpayer Mid-Level Exception Teams – 6 teams

  1. Indiana Pacers
  2. Milwaukee Bucks
  3. New Orleans Pelicans
  4. Philadelphia 76ers
  5. Portland Trail Blazers
  6. Sacramento Kings

Another mix of teams that are would-be contenders, plus teams just trying to find their footing as they reset their rosters.

Indiana will be around or over the tax line, and potentially pushing the first apron, if they re-sign Myles Turner. Given they didn’t trade him for the umpteenth deadline in a row, bet on Turner getting a new deal from the only NBA team he’s ever known.

Milwaukee did a good job getting off money at the deadline. That will put the Bucks in position to possibly use the NTMLE. The big question will be how much Brook Lopez re-signs for this offseason, assuming the veteran center doesn’t call it a career.

The Pelicans are in transition. Brandon Ingram is gone, but New Orleans still has a lot of money on their books for next season and beyond. Look for more rebalancing trade, as where the team lands in the 2025 NBA Draft Lottery might determine their direction moving forward.

The Sixers are kind of a mess. Things haven’t gone as planned, as Joel Embiid and Paul George have been unable to stay healthy. With those two on the books, the team is very, very expensive. But Philadelphia might be able to squeeze in a NTMLE signing, if they make another move or two around the core group.

Portland is far too expensive for a bad team. The Blazers didn’t make any moves at the deadline. That means this roster remains flush with a confusing mix of veterans and young players trying to find their way in the NBA. There’s a lot of work to be done here this offseason.

The Kings took on some long-term money by adding Zach LaVine and Jonas Valanciunas, but they also got off some money too. Sacramento will be straddling the line of NTMLE vs Tax MLE, and hard-capping themselves at the first apron might not be worth it for using the NTMLE.

Taxpayer Mid-Level Exception Teams – 4 teams

  1. Denver Nuggets
  2. Miami Heat
  3. Oklahoma City Thunder
  4. Toronto Raptors

This group is a bit larger than usual. The Nuggets and Thunder are title contenders. Miami is resetting, while the Raptors are starting to push their rebuild forward.

Denver should have just enough room to fit in a Taxpayer MLE signing. However, that would mean another hard cap at the second apron. The Nuggets might want to avoid that complication for a third consecutive season.

The Heat moved off Jimmy Butler, but they took on some other long-term money in that deal. Their roster is also mostly full. If there’s the right guy to use the Taxpayer MLE on, Miami will do it, but don’t lock that in.

The Thunder have a full roster. Their big question i: How will they fit in at least two, and possibly more, first-round picks? They could use the Taxpayer MLE, but why go into the tax now? It’s probably best to delay the inevitable for as long as you can in Oklahoma City.

When Toronto extended Brandon Ingram, they pushed right up to the tax line. They have enough room to fit in a Taxpayer MLE signing, but will they want to? It’d have to be someone who can really lift the Raptors. Otherwise, this group will focus on bringing back Chris Boucher and maybe some smaller moves around the edges of the rotation.

Swing Taxpayer Mid-Level Exception Teams and Second Apron Teams – 4 teams

  1. Golden State Warriors
  2. Los Angeles Lakers
  3. Minnesota Timberwolves
  4. Orlando Magic

Four teams that all have playoff aspirations, even if all have stumbled at points this season. That will probably be the same story a year from now.

Golden State locked into being a tax team when they extended Jimmy Butler. The big question: Can they fit in a Taxpayer MLE signing before hitting what would be a second-apron hard cap?

The Lakers situation will be determined by LeBron James. Will he take a little less for some flexibility with a signing? Will he take the max he can get? Will James just pick up his player option? Will he stay in LA? Will James retire? It feels like everything is on the table more than ever.

If Minnesota re-signs Naz Reid and Nickeil Alexander-Walker, they’ll be a second apron team. If they lose Reid, the Taxpayer MLE comes into play. It’s really that simple for the Wolves.

Orlando might be a surprise here, but they’ve got a max extension kicking in Franz Wagner and a near-max first-year salary coming online for Jalen Suggs. Add to it that the Magic have aggressively re-signed their own players, and this team is carrying a lot more salary than most realize. They’ve got a little flexibility to get under the tax line, but things are tighter in Orlando than they have been in years.

Second Apron Teams (no signing exceptions) – 5 Teams

  1. Boston Celtics
  2. Cleveland Cavaliers
  3. Dallas Mavericks
  4. New York Knicks
  5. Phoenix Suns

This group grew throughout the season. Boston and Phoenix have been here and will continue to be, barring something really unexpected. The Celtics are still title favorites, so their second-apron status feels earned. The Suns aren’t, and a Kevin Durant trade could throw things into flux. But given the salary-matching rules, it’s not overly likely a Durant trade would get Phoenix all the way under the second apron.

Cleveland will join this group by virtue of acquiring De’Andre Hunter, along with extensions kicking in for Donovan Mitchell and Evan Mobley. The Cavs have never shied away from paying for a contender, so they’ll likely end up even deeper into the tax after re-signing a couple of key free agents too.

Dallas moved Luka Doncic, but Anthony Davis is starting a max extension next season. Kyrie Irving is likely to opt out and push for a max or near-max deal too. The Mavericks have a solid roster, but they are going to be a second-apron team with limited resources to improve it.

When New York landed Karl-Anthony Towns, they basically locked in second-apron status. Yes, Jalen Brunson took less to give the Knicks some flexibility, but this team is still carrying a ton of guaranteed salary. That’s not the worst thing, given New York is a contender. But it’s going to be hard for them to do much, beyond minor moves around the edges of the rotation.